We have five Group 1s on the cards for the day with four at Randwick and one at Flemington. An action packed day so get your tipping hat on! Last night didn’t go to plan with only two real winners for the night so let’s try and claw some of that cash back today. As always, we suggest you do your own form and then compare to our thoughts! Good luck and happy punting!
Flemington Best Bet
Race 2 Tatra
Randwick Best Bet
Race 4 Mourayan
Eagle Farm Best Bet
Race 3 Grey Assignment
Morphetville Best Bet
Race 7 Eclair Surprise
Best Value
Flemington Race 4 Dame Claire
Flemington Race 8 Over Quota
Randwick Race 8 Fictional Account
Randwick Race 7 Rolling Pin
Best Lays
1. Morphetville Race 5 Weekend Special
2. Flemington Race 7 Ethiopia (Place Lay)
3. Randwick Race 9 Emotional Circus
Betting Specials
Betfair is offering Best of 5 (instead of best of 4) this Saturday at Melbourne and Sydney. This means win bets will be paid the highest price of the three totes, offical bookmaker’s SP or Betfair SP. Find out more here.
Betstar are offering DOUBLE fixed odds on all Group 1s this Spring including all five of today’s races. If you don’t have an account with Betstar but are going to join up please use the Referral code 23703. (Available from 8am on the day)
The new TAB website isn’t working at this time in the morning due to their crappy redesign so I cannot pass on the exact specials. From what I heard there is a massive First Four jackpot from Vic TAB in one of the races and the Quaddie in NSW is going to be big also.
Sportingbet is offering Best Tote Exotics including Quaddies for Melbourne + Sydney meetings.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
A chuck at the stumps unless you know something that we all don’t.
Nothing catches the eye on breeding apart from Kuroshio who has a fairly classy sibling. Won a trial out of Snowden yard with in-form Bossy on board.
Confidence 50%
Flemington Race 2
The Sydney form has been holding up over the last few weeks down in Melbourne and we expect this will probably happen once again in this race.
Jimando has been putting in some solid runs recently. Ignore last start in much harder class where still ran solidly with Pierro ahead of him.
Tatra is the one to follow in this race. Big win over Proverb last start and before that close to Albrecht. Has returned in fine form this prep and with Arnold on board will get a good ride.
Hvasstan was very well at Caulfield last start and with Bossy on board again is still well weighted. This is a huge step up against Tatra but can run a solid race.
Philippi put down a solid run on nice times last start at Moonee Valley and could improve on that run once again.
High Esteem missed the start last run and finished strongly. Should position better today and the longer straight could give him the improvement needed to win.
Baluch was blocked for a run last start and could be another that appreciates the Flemington straight. Weighted nicely.
Confidence 85%
Flemington Race 3
Limes has been running solid races but looks outclassed here.
Pronto Pronto improved on previous runs last start and could run even better here. Does seem like could be better weighted in this class though.
Steep ran two solid runs last start but on times seems a little out of it here. Could still produce a strong run.
Crystal Web didn’t return well at all last start and you would rather look elsewhere.
Looks too hard for Swift Succession.
About Square can be forgiven for last start run. Look to this run.. very good odds and will run well off the Lady of Harrods form where blocked for run in that race.
Villa Splendido has some very solid form over in Sydney and could be the one to beat here off the 54kg.
There are big wraps on Dazzler but we are happy to avoid here.
Confidence 70%
Flemington Race 4
Maluckyday has won 2 from 3 at this distance and 1/1 from 2 at track. Unfortunately, has been fairly poor the first two starts this prep. Will need to improve significantly to win this.
Shenzhou Steeds seems to be travelling well and has won 1/1 at this distance but suspect will find a few too good here.
Tanby put in a quality run last start at Moonee Valley and goes well over the 2500m. Down 3kg from that race is what gives him a bit chance.
Exceptionally is the horse to beat. Two super runs the last two starts and just arriving too late. Back to Flemington and will be very hard to beat off 54kg.
Dame Claire is the main threat in our eyes to the favourite. Will be going forward and comes DOWN 4KG from last start impressive win at Mornington. Will get a nice run close to the front and will have 4-5L on Exceptionally coming to the corner which could prove the difference.
Simply ignore the first run of Single Minded and last start got too far back. Better over the 2500m but does seem to have gone backwards this prep. Could still run well if runs to previous form.
I’m Jake ran a solid race behind Dame Claire last start and both down in trip, could also be value.
Maythehorsebemagic didn’t run well first up but if taken forward here today could run a solid race. Munce is an interesting booking.
Big step up for Sky Raider..
Confidence 80%
Flemington Race 5
A wide open affair.
Start at the top with Mosheen. Didn’t show enough for us last start to back her here. Price seems unders.
Raspberries has won 5 and placed 3 from 8 over this distance which is super form. Does go well in this class but will find this hard from barrier 12.
Invest is an interesting runner here for sure. Seems to find best over longer distances.
Shopaholic from her last four runs has gone backwards. We are happy to be against her here once again.
Hi Belle is one of the big chances in this race. Was very unlucky last start not to win in class and will enjoy the longer straight. Barrier 17 is the big issue but if given a good ride, will be hard to beat.
Miss Stellabelle Newitt on board out of Waterhouse yard comes down from Sydney. Ignore last start where lost a plate and was also blocked for a run and look to two back where in equal claass won by 2.3L. Has the class to run well.
Soft Sand today has every right to be solid in the market. Ran on well last start and will certainly appreciate the longer straight. Never like her at Caulfield due to the short straight but can certainly back her here. Will need to jump well to position up well but has history of jumping away badly. The one main issue is the barrier one drawn and this is why we can’t be on her once again.
Full of Spirit won strongly back in New Zealand last month and returns here strongly. Could go close.
Total Attraction seems to be safely held here off the weight. Will be there at the end.
Bonaria is a strong horse but not up to this quality
Twilighting won very well last start in a much weaker race. Will need to improve to go well here.
Confidence 70%
Flemington Race 6
Members Joy won well two back over the 1100 here on the straight track. Last start over 1400m seemed a little harder and up to 1600m seems to not be what the horse is wanting. Happy to look elsewhere
Affable hasn’t shown enough this prep.
Maybe Discreet won VERY well last start over in Adelaide and could be the one to beat here on times. Will need luck from barrier 16 but will go close.
Commanding Jewel was solid first up leading from start to finish and can’t be potted here today. Up 200m more does seem to be a negative but should run very well.
Kate is an interesting filly to watch. Comes over from New Zealand after winning a 3YO race but didn’t go close in a 3F-GP3 after that. Happy to be against.
Showmya Miss ran very well last start and should improve again here today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg one: 4, 5, 12
Flemington Race 7
The Turnbull Stakes! A cracking race with quite a few chances.
December Draw was solid last start at Caulfield. Has won 4 from 5 at Flemington (only loss was two back). Had a Vet Exam that first run when didn’t run well. Will run well again today from barrier 3.
Ethiopia didn’t show enough first up.
Rekindled Interest will enjoy the extra distance but seems to be outclassed here on weight once again.
Happy Trails once again seems set to run a cracking race. Won two of three this prep including first up beating home Southern Speed and Green Moon last start, both who are shorter in this race. Barrier 1 means he will get a quality run and suspect the horse runs better with less weight on board.
Southern Speed back down in class is better suited. Interestingly has never won from 9 starts at distance (4 placings). Should go close.
Voila Ici took up the running last start and snuck away with some easy sectionals to finish strongly for second. Down to 55.5kg means VI can do this once again. Could run very well but suspect the long straight will be it’s undoing. Worth noting the horse has 9 wins 10 places at class from 24, 8 wins 8 places at distance.
Linton put in a huge run last start at Moonee Valley coming from the back and could produce better here today. Suspect will run well but other swoopers have more to give.
Green Moon is the favourite here and there is no reason for him not to be. Won a super 1600m race three back at track and last start was unlucky losing in a bobbing finish to Happy Trails who he meets 1kg better off. As long as positions well in running will go close.
Moudre returned last start after a massive 1 and a half year break and seemed to return better than ever! Scary seeing his form lines with CapeCover and Typhoon Tracy to name a few. Was a very solid run last start and could go very close here.
Sneak A Peek not showing enough for us to back here.
Finally, Winchester produced enough last start to tell us he will be competitive here if given a more forward run.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 11
Flemington Race 8
Spirit Of Boom comes ran a solid second 0.1L behind Were Gonna Rock first up at Flemington over the 1200m and then went up to Sydney and after being slowly away ran a solid 4th 2L behind Pampelonne. Will go close here today.
Bel Sprinter is the class runner here today. Down in class and down 2.5kg for the super run last start. As long as jumps well will be VERY hard to beat from barrier 1.
On previous runs, Liveandletdie will run well.
Mid Summer Music can’t be discounted either if returns with form from previous runs.
King’s Rose is a big unknown after last two runs. Has never won at distance but has placed. One to watch.. weighted well.
Excellantes looks outclassed but will run a nice race.
Hallowell Belle is a very consistent horse who keeps on placing. Will run well as always but seems to find one or two too good.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 4
Flemington Race 9
Over Quota is a super interesting horse. Last two runs over 1600m in Open or Listed company the horse has won. Down to the 1400m and back to this class, is simply overs here. If he has trained on, will go very close.
Torio’s Quest didn’t return well first up and can’t back here second up.
Fawkner was MASSIVE first up at Flemington last start. Barrier 15 is a big concern and up 4kg from that massive win. Will still run very well as the form out of that race was solid.
Testascana will need to improve once again to go close here.
Amah Rock will run better on a longer straight. Off a good weight and from barrier 5, will get a solid run as long as gets out on the turn.
That’s The One is a quality horse with massive upside. Have to forgive last two runs to have here. Will go close.
Brian’s Honour has some good form in less classy races but you do have to consider that he ran 0.1L behind Glencadam Gold and beat the horses in two previous runs by 3.5 and 2.5L. Will run very well here it seems.
Mendos is hard to place. Should run a solid race today.
Zaamore looks outclassed but can run a good time.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 2, 5, 9, 11, 12, 13
Randwick Race 1
Another chuck at the stumps.. You are really looking forward the Waterhouse or Snowden runners here.
Sugar Rush is out of a Filly who won around 250k. First foul to race so unknown but did trial well.
Snowden runner also won trial well and is first foul.
Shahad won by 0.3L in a trial and is bread through fastnet rock out of Shamekha who has produced some 2YO winners in quality races like this before. If you twisted my arm to bet here, it would go on Shahad due to the price.
Confidence 50%
Randwick Race 2
Another 2 yr old race. There is big talk about the horse called War and if you are having a go here, this may be the way to travel. Once again, don’t like these races and am happy to skip over all day. I would almost recommend you get to the track AFTER the first two races so you are not tempted to have a go!
Confidence 50%
Randwick Race 3
Onto the better races of the day we start.
We have this a race of three. The first and our on top pick is Your Song. Ignore last start and look to previous three runs where he won two good races and then ran 1.3L second to Pierro.
Ichihara returned to the form we have come to expect last start and will certainly be hard to beat down 2kg from last run 2.3L win.
Finally, Jolie Bay ran a super quick 1000m first up.
Confidence 80%
Randwick Race 4
Mourayan was super unlucky last start not to run down Lamasery. Was a huge run and should be hard to beat today.
Class is Class put in a big run last start also. Will go close.
On best form, Western Symbol and Herculian Prince could run into this race but happy to not be on either today.
Gazza Guru keep sproducing big runs but up to 59kg is a big disadvantage.
Dare to Dream won a 2010M race in a very solid time in England but this is a much harder class. Interestingly, 2/2 at distance.
Finally, Less is More ran a super race first up, has won 2 times at distance but weight is hard to overcome.
Confidence 90%
Randwick Race 5
It’s A Dundeel has been winning solidly but the real quality in this race is Proisir. Should lead from start to finish and on previous times ran should just win.
Confidence 95%
Randwick Race 6
Dear Demi was not suited by the tempo of the race last start and was blocked for a run. Will go close here off an extra 100m.
Longport cannot be discounted. Was a solid win last start and could produce similar again today.
Jade Maruder was one of the better runs of the race last week. Comes in with claims.
Norzita positioned well but was once again beaten by Longport.
Urban Groove won well second up last start but this looks much harder.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Randwick Race 7
Super competitive race and will be one of the best for the day.
Shoot Out was super solid first up but is giving the others in this race a significant weight advantage. When you consider the class he has been running in, he will go VERY close today for sure.
Rangirangdoo was solid second up but suspect will need to find something special today.
Secret Admirer seems needs to find 2-3L on these.
Ambidexter was super solid first up beating home Fat Al. Will roll forward once again and go close.
Rolling Pin is massive value in this race. He was discounted the last two runs and the times were very solid. Down to 52kg, will be there at the end.
Fat Al is much better weighted today. Got a little too far back last start and should sit further forward today.
Wild and Proud and Said Com both were solid last start but suspect outclassed on weight drops.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 6, 7, 8
Randwick Race 8
Lamasery was huge last start off the 59kg in WFA-G2 class. Down to the 54.5kg from barrier 1, will get a good ride but the only issue from last start was the very slowly run race which suited Lamasery. This won’t be run slowly.
Permit is one of the dangers today. Will get a nice run back in the field and runs well off lower weights.
Glencadam Gold is stepping up in class once again but will be controlling the race. Puts on a solid speed up front and off the 53kg will be super hard to run down.
Stout Hearted will run a super race today off a low weight. Watch for him late.
Kelinni is a horse that is hard to place. Down 3.5kg from last up win at Group 3 class… will run very well today.
Fictional Account put in a super run last start and has been well backed in Melbourne Cup markets. Off the 52kg will be coming hard and hopefully they do push further forward today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 3, 6, 9, 11, 13
Randwick Race 9
Rain Affair was massively disappointing last start and steps up to a WFA-G3. If produces form previously shown will go close but geez you are taking a risk at the price. Did trial well though.
Red Tracer ran well last start but this seems another step up. Has won 6 and placed 4 from 10 starts at distance but first up in this class.
Streama was very solid behind More Joyous first up. Seems to be wanting further still.
Pear Tart won four in a row last start including some very game races. Worth some thought today and if trained on will go close.
Satin Shoes run last start was simply massive. Expect her to go further forward today and run even better.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 6, 7
Eagle Farm Race 3
Grey Assignment is the quality runner in this race. Will run a very solid race and will be positioned well. The only horse that could beat him home is Attica.
Confidence 90%
Eagle Farm Race 5
War Ends is a big chance in open company here. Is the horse with the best classy form in the race and is well weighted. Will run well and go very close.
Confidence 75%
Eagle Farm Race 6
Fillydelphia is a very classy filly and comes back to a winable race today. Biggest issue is the weight she has to carry.
Jet Style once again is perfectly weighted. Will get a solid run and should win.
Confidence 85%
Eagle Farm Race 7
Cuddlesome has won four in a row now and has slowly progressed up the ranks. On times can run very well and should be winning this race.
The main dangers are Hidden Kisses who is back in class today and Bang On who has some solid times.
Confidence 80%
Eagle Farm Race 8
Whispering Gap is back down in class here today and has been running some very solid times. Weighted ok and at a price will run a very solid race.
Confidence 70%
Eagle Farm Race 9
The class of this race is Ticket to Dream. Has been off a long time but if returns in the form produced last start, will be very hard to beat. Weighted to win.
Confidence 80%
Morphetville Race 4
Sabres coming over to Morphetville was super first up and down in class here off 57.5kg will run very strongly. Will be hard to beat.
The one horse with a big chance is the French Horse Mouro. Has the times to run strongly here if settled.
Confidence 75%
Morphetville Race 5
El Magico was super impressive last start and should be just winning again today.
Confidence 70%
Morphetville Race 7
Eclair Surprise coming over from Melbourne has some very solid runs under his belt. Should simply be winning this if up to best.
Confidence 85%
Please Note:
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