Welcome to The Profits 7 July 2012 Form. We have gone the simple route this week and gone back to basics. If we like a horse on form we are backing it. We have gone over a few trials and re-watched a number of races so we are keen on a number of runners today. It must be said, these fields are fairly trappy with a few good runners going around in each race. Hoping to snag at least four winners for the day and step out ahead. Good Luck and Happy Punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Club Command
Bet E/W
Flemington Race 7 – Prince Obama
Bet Value Bet
Eagle Farm Race 8 – Divine City
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Disappointed to see Isabella Snowflake withdrawn here. Opens the race right up.
Starting with the toppie with Moody/Nolen combo. Won very well first up at Morphet but this does look an extra step up. Could over-produce and win.
Happy Galaxy ran a great lead up win in a decent time ending up winning it by 2.8L which is great for a 1000m run with 12 runners. Big step up in grade but has the times.
Heroic Tale won by 4L in trial over 760m. On that form wins but question of trial class.
Sweetner is the massive question mark in this race. Was 4.5L behind Samaready last start before a spell. That form is good enough to win this race for sure. If trained on, gets gun ride from Bossy and wins.
Confidence: 70%
Flemington Race 2
There are a few absolute good things in this race. If i had nominated my horse for another race this weekend, I would be withdrawing it from this!
Let’s start with Forty Thirty. Won by 4.5L last week at Caulfield and comes into this race, down in grade, only up 1.5kg after claim. Won the previous run by 2.8L so you expect the 200m up in length will be fine.
Winning Glory won well second up. Suited by up in distance but goes up 2.5kg after claim for harder class race. 2 wins 1 place from 3 at distance and if we get a wet ground is 6 wins 1 place from 9.
Dame Claire on recent form can be considered massive overs here. Down 2.5kg on a big win in harder class last up, the only query is if she handles the step down in trip.
Sister Norma comes into this with a massive chance. Weighted VERY WELL for this race off 51.5kg after claim. Only issue is 0 wins at distance and 0 wins 1 place from 3 at track. Form from last five runs is strong enough to win this.
Banca Mo is another in this very well treated weight and class wise. Down to 52kg, last two runs have been quality and just found something too good. May happen again here but given every chance off weight.
Like all before it New York can’t be discounted off 52kg. Won two of last four and then x2 seconds by 0.2L and 0.8L, both respectable loses.
Confidence: 65%
Flemington Race 3
Shanghai Warrior has some decent form lines around it’s recent runs before spelling. If trained on can win this for sure.
Cavallo Nero has been putting in solid runs but last start couldn’t find enough. Looking elsewhere up 1kg.
Cyclone Andy blew them away last start. Up 1kg on that run but enjoyed the ground and out front run. This looks stronger.
Stratigraphy seems to be going a little backwards. From barrier 1 may go a little more forward this run and Newitt onboard has every chance.
Ignore last start for Rushworth if you want. Has the form but can’t have it here off the price after losing by 3L to a horse in this race.
Handcut is the horse that stands our for us. Well weighted and positioned nicely. This is a MUCH easier race than the previous one. Platelet has gone on to win easily after that 1.3L win. Will get a good run during the race and come home strong.
Confidence: 75%
Flemington Race 4
Club Command has been brilliant the last two runs but has been given a stiff handicap with 60kg on it’s back. When you look through the quality of this field, you can understand why. He is head and shoulders classier than every thing in this race and should simply win.
Chili Express seems to be the main threat with some big runs over the last five runs including two wins.
Confidence: 90%
Flemington Race 5
A massive run to finally get a win under his belt, My Bentley comes into this up 1.5kg but proved the weight doesn’t matter last up with that big win. Flemington is the track you want him on and could produce best here.
Ignore last start for Montgomery, will provide better today over a longer distance. Only problem is 0 from 4 at Track.
Swooper and Crabs were both underwhelming last up and both don’t get any help from the handicapper. Crabs is somehow 3kg worse off! Looks to be others that are better here.
Streaky Fella. Backed this bloke 3 of his last 5 runs.. and pulls out a massive one finally last start. Was given a perfect ride by Bossy and hopefully Rawiller can reproduce that.
Exceptionally pulled out a big run last week but is massive unders here. Ok, she got within 0.2L of TurnItUp but before that has produced nothing for a long time. You don’t know how she will run in a big field, most likely getting FAR back. Only thing in her favour is the 55.5kg.
Finally we look at Kutchinsky. Like most, ignore last start. Had a Vet Exam as didn’t run well at all. Weighted well and if produces two back run can go close.
Confidence: 75%
Flemington Race 6
A massively open race.
Chosen to Fly has produced two big runs in a row but is fairly harshly treated here with a 4.5kg penalty. Barrier 15 also isn’t the best here. Will run a very valid race but seems harshly treated by weights.
There’s Only One romped in last start as the favourite. The run was beautiful from barrier 1 and i’m not sure she will get a run that good this start. Up 3.5kg also. That being said, she is a top class mare and has won 2 of 3 at track. Will go very close.
Gail has won two of last four runs but lost by 3.5L last start at this distance. Treated ok by the weights but expect this extra step up in class may be too much.
Ignore last start by Stoneblack. Was harshly treated by weights and comes back down 5kg here. Does run well at track according to form and does handle the ground so will go well with this weight on board.
As per Stoneblack, Population is much better treated today on weights. Goes well over distance and weighted to run a solid race.
Sussuro finally got that win last start and did it convincingly. Big step up here but has a massive shot.
Future Solution has run two solid runs recently. The extra 200m should suit the horse and is treated nicely on weights. 2.5kg better off than There’s Only One from last start.
Look to last run of Galileo Gold for all the form you need. Beat home Sussuro and a few other handy horses. From barrier 3 will take a similar ride and go well.
Finally, Mendaos is stepping up in class big time and is up 1kg compared to others down 5kg from that same race. New York will be a good measure earlier in the day. Have the feeling this horse won’t handle the class.
Confidence: 70%
Flemington Race 7
We can’t touch Perturbo. Has come back in horrible form. 60kg ensures we look elsewhere.
Beyond Pardon has put in two solid runs recently in ok times over slow tracks. Does run well at Flemington so expect him to produce a solid run.
Ready to Rip is a horse with quality with Moody/Nolen combo. Wasn’t able to get a win in the last six runs and the win before that was in a poorly classed CL5. Off 56kg in this class, will need to produce a big run at a distance which seems too short.
Verdasco put in a big run last start and the form stacks up well if you look 3 and 4 runs back also. Up 1.5kg and newitt back onboard, the only problem is the slow track as he has never won from 4 starts on slow. Will run very well.
Big step up in class for Gossip Girl but can produce best. Suited well off 54kg but if the run two back is one to judge by, can’t see her winning. If she runs like last start, will be hard to hold out for sure. Has won last 2 races at Flemington.
Prince Obama 0.2L off winning last start almost gave us a massive priced winner. Put in a big run adn will again from similar barrier and same weight. Is 1.5kg better off than Verdasco here.
Del Palio and Dash for Viz are two to watch, Both low weights and both have interesting form lines that give them a chance here.
Confidence: 80%
Flemington Race 8
Dayita comes back down in class slightly here and up 3.5kg. Ran well last start 3rd but should have never been $2.50. Have to say she looks well suited at $5 here. Won 2 from 2 on Slow and won over distance before.
A horse in this race called Imoto is one to watch. Won by 7L in much lesser class but the time was solid and she won leading start to finish. Oliver on board and suited by weights, could produce a similar result.
Moscow Pearl has come over from New Zealand after some solid runs and produced a good run first up over here. Was on Heavy ground so can forgive the 2nd placing. Could run on strongly here.
The one that sticks out on form here is Barbie Dazzler. Ran very well to win by 4L last start in Heavy. Is harshly treated by 2kg up for going up in class but does like a wet track. Solid form lines from previous races also.
Finally you have to give Pass the Shot, Aliberani and Gioe all a chance here but get the feeling this is a little too hard for them.
Confidence: 75%
Rosehill Race 8
I have been against this horse a fair few times but it seems very well weighted here. Al’s Magic Miss comes into this race with 51kg on her name which will certainly help on the Heavy ground. Barrier 12 is a little hard to track but should be fine over the 1100m. Has won at this class before and won a few times at distance. Trialed very well and should go very close.
Confidence: 70%
Eagle Farm Race 8
Divine City is a horse with big potential. Ran a massive race last start after slowly away and runnng wide. Down 2.5kg here after being 0.1L off the win. Big Chance.
Epic Terra was 0.2L off the win last start at a big price. Comes into this from a better barrier and will also produce a nice run you would expect.
Confidence: 70%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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