Welcome to the Racing write up for Saturday. After a good performance last Saturday at the Valley with our Best value winning at $18 and our best lay also coming through, we hope to extend with some quality tips! We are feeling very confident today! Back at Flemington so we won’t be so front-runner biased this week. Good luck and happy Punting!
Flemington Race 4 – African Pulse (Currently $3.20)
Flemington Race 7 – Lyonell (Currently $20/$5)
1. Flemington Race 4 – Vatican
2. Flemington Race 7 – Darlimurla Star
3. Flemington Race 8 – Oak Heart
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
There are four stand out horses in this race and we are going for the one you won’t expect.
Mulaazem out of the Moody stable with Nolen on board is a colt who impressed in the Heavy last run winning by 10L! This is a step down in class but really the horses seem better to me. Up 1.5KG seems fair. Interestingly, Carringbush Jack beat it first up and is in this race.
Emperor Max also won very well first up at the Bool by 8L in a six horse field on Heavy. The time was fair and will go very well. Also out of the Moody yard and Rawiller booked. Down 2kg from that run.
Mottled won a decent Maiden first up and should be suited by the distance but probably won’t have enough to be there at the end against these others who are already proven on the ground.
Carringbush Jack ran a nice race last start at the Valley but didn’t produce enough to impress. Can’t see it winning here.
Finally we get to Fandom. Down 3kg with Sadler on board which is a bonus. Won very well two back in the Maiden and then also won well last start over 1200m. Proven on Heavy and Slow and looks suited by the up in class. Also very well suited 5kg below the favourite in Mulaazem. Most impressive is that the horse she beat home two runs back in Bloomingdale Miss won very well for us at Caulfield last month. This horse could be the value of the day.
Flemington Race 2
This is a big step down in class for Storm Burst but this is a very hefty weight to carry around the 2000m. You would want her to get a very good ride to have a chance here after showing a fair bit recently but not being super impressive. Has never won at the track.
Midnight Pearl impressed last Sunday at Seymour in a lesser race and jumps down 4kg on that run. In with a very good chance first time up at this track. Was it’s first run last start at distance (was the only question) and didn’t disappoint!
Yasey San beat home Storm Burst four runs back and since hten has gone backwards big time. Meets Storm Burst about 6kg better off. Expecting a more forward ride to give the horse a chance. Knobel rode it to the win that 1.8L win over Storm Burst and back on board is good for it. If you follow your races every week, how often do you see a horse like this reverse the form with a good ride? Every week. Big Value.
Morganza comes down in class after a solid 2nd at huge odds over 1600m in a harder race. Out of the Hayes yard and has some very solid form from France, comes into this with a massive chance. It’s only win was in 3YO class on a Slow track so doesn’t mind it wet and first time on heavy last start 2nd of 9. Same weight as last start and up in distance all suits.
Good win last up for On Tour but get the feeling this is too hard for her.
Finally, Highway Princess up in class but with 51kg on her back, could run very well.
Flemington Race 3
Sean Baile Mor is an interesting runner. Back in class big time here from last up try. Horse is slightly overrated and 57kg after claim is a little harsh. Has 2 wins from 2 starts at distance but only 1 win from class from 13 tries. Has won first up. Would need to improve to win here.
Get the feeling that Delzera is weighted appropriately here. If runs to form four and five runs back and tries to lead this up, could go ok but think the long straight won’t suit.
Princess Diablo is a very interesting runner. Won two back and then 0.2L on this track 2nd to a very hand horse The Long Road last start who followed up that win with a very handy second next start. Princess back down to this grade off an appropriate weight, only concern will be the track.
Halo Miss Maher loves a heavy track having won 2 of last three on heavy. Had to do a bit too much early off too much weight and distance but stepping back 100m here and down 5kg will suit. If produces previous runs from a good barrier, will be hard to hold out.
Sky Rubi is certainly interesting. Has put in some good runs and this weight of 51kg after fclaim looks juicy. Will go well.
Tranquera has run well behind some handy horses recently and down in class off same weight but hasn’t come less than 2.8L the last five runs. Might find the longer straight to her liking.
Finally, Orlando’s Bride with Williams on board is interesting. Think it is still outclassed.
Flemington Race 4
A very competitive race.
African Pulse comes into this over the odds. Has won all 3 first up runs and won 3 from 5 at this distance. Goes well at Flemington and barrier 3 will also suit. Has won his only start on Heavy.. everything is looking good for this horse who has competed in Group 1 company.
Morant has been putting in some solid runs but 59kg is a huge disadvantage. Can’t have on this weight.
Spurcific was good last two starts but 56.5kg against this field might be too much.. Will be there for the places I feel for sure.
Jugahlation has gone backwards since that huge start to finish win three runs back. Can’t back here.
Vatican is another quality runner in this race hugely down in class. Barrier 1 is solid and will get a perfect sit. Only problem is that he hasn’t returned at best this prep.
Nicholls Court is a horse we have all the time in the world for. Can run some blistering sectionals and as long as settles middle of the pack, will come home with a massive run. Weighted well and has won 3 of 4 first up and only run on heavy with 2 wins 3 places from 6 at distance.
Flemington Race 5
A very very touch race.
I wouldn’t totally discount Tanby in this race. Can stay for days and if the track is heavy will be more like a 1600-1700 run so could be suited. With a win over Dance with Her, second to Shewan and second to Dunaden in last five runs, Tanby is all quality and has won first up before.
Parthian is an interesting runner. 2 wins from 3 at Heavy… 7 wins 7 places from 19 at distance and 2 wins from 5 second up. Weighted normal here and could run very well.
Avienus is one I am now willing to discount over 1400 after last run on Heavy.
Folding Gear is an interesting runner. Record shows 0 wins 1 place from 4 at distance but when you look to four runs back he ran 0.5L 4th here on a slow track at distance. This puts him right in the mix off a great prep. Big big chance here.
Secret Flyer’s run was quite good in a much harder race at Caulfield last up. Will get a nice run from barrier 1 and down 4kg coming into this race. Loves the heavy running and could go very much.
Dusty Star comes into this with the best recent form of the race. He put in a big run last start. The only issue we have with Dusty here is a heavy track with an extra up in distance. This will be a hard one to hold from start to finish.
Prince of Capers comes into this with 4 wins and 2 seconds from last 6 runs. Won very well last start at course and 200m extra distance n a dead track so will be similar to this on a heavy. Down 3kg in weight. Looks the value.
Guru Bob had the most impressive last start run with a huge 0.1L loss to Club Command at Caulfield over Distance and on a Heavy 8. Off 52kg here again in equal class, Club Command would be a $3 fav to win this. Only concern is barrier.
Finally, Excluded is an interesting runner. Could come back here very well.
Flemington Race 6
Midas Touch is an interesting runner here. Hasn’t won since 2010 but has been running strongly in Australia at higher distances. Has never ran on a heavy track but you get the feeling could be what they are looking for. From barrier 1 most likely goes forward.
Green Birdie could be ridden cold today (you would expect they would) and be made to come from the back of the field. Could run ok here but happy to be against.
Seville should be looking for further.
Golden Archer comes in as the obvious favourite but has many questions hanging over it for me. Up to 1200m and on a very wet track, has to answer some questions up in class here. Weighted appropaitely.
Sound Journey would have needed to have improved big time to picture in this race. Is weighted well off 54kg and has won first up, at track and at distance but looks too poor rated.
Zamorar looks well suited to step up and win this race. Lowest weight for this horse by 3.5kg for last five runs and down in class. Has all the ability and will be there at the end with Newitt on board!
This race is a big step up for Shanghai Warrior and Balzeus who should both run well but probably out classed.
Twilighting is a very interesting runner. Should run well first up but probably in a field too hard for her.
Finally, Sysmo seems to be a chance coming over from Adelaide.
Flemington Race 7
Moulin Bleu won an ok race last start and down 2.5kg comes in with a slight chance if can produce previous runs over distance. Has won at this class from 1 run.
Lyonell was massive the last two runs. Has returned in best form and don’t discount this horse. Jumped at $61 and $51 last two runs and ran on Heavy and Slow so will love the conditions. Barrier 3 means will get a good run 1 out hopefully and long straight will be good also. Will get out late and bolt!
Darlimurla Star steps up in class here. Will put in a solid run but happ yto be against it.
Dayita impressed last start overcoming a huge change around in weights. She is very short here back up in class on a Heavy track up in distance. Could quite easily impress and win this.. but get the feeling something could beat it.
Shiny Buttons has been putting in some nice runs recently. 1 win 2 places from 3 on heavy and 3 wins 2 places from 6 at distance. Should be suited by the long straight and will go close.
Flemington Race 8
Ignore last start for Giresun and look to the previous runs. Big concern for me is the weight on his back.
Noble Park could find a good form line through Prince of Capers if he gets up earlier in the day. Noble Park is well weighted off 56kg here and always runs well at Flemington. Seems well suited here and only concern is the barrier.
Collar missed the start last run but finished fairly strongly. Not sure we can give him another chance here but this is the type of distance he is looking for.
Prince Pedro impressed first up in the city after winning three in a row at Wagga Wagga. This is a step up in distance but previous run suggests will be competitive here. Don’t discount!
Warwick Farm Race 3
She’s A Fox got the chocies for us last start and she was super impressive. She is very short at $1.90 today but jusifies it in this small field. Should simply just win.
Warwick Farm Race 4
Embark is the class runner in this field and will be there at the end. Should keep improving on recent wins.
Warwick Farm Race 7
Levi’s Choice can be taken at $80s for the win at $14s for the place on fixed totes and is massive overs. This is a hard race no doubt but this horse has a chance. Include in Quaddies.
Warwick Farm Race 8
A moral beaten last start, Girls Go Racing is our best value of the day at Warwick Farm. Confident get out stakes!
Morphetville Race 7
Over the 1200m you expect this to be an open afair even though you have the Caulfield Cup Winner here in Southern Speed. We are going to take SS on with the horse that impressed us the most last prep in Happy Trials. Should have trained on and money for it suggests this is correct. Back Happy and Saver Southern.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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