ANZAC day is a very special day for me with both of my grandparents serving in the war. If you enjoy out tips and more importantly, have made some money off them, then all that I do ask on this special day is that you go out of your way to buy an ANZAC day pin to show your respect to those who fought bravely for our country and wear it proudly. We will never be charging for any of our write ups, so this is the least you can do
Onto the racing. Medusa’s Miss didn’t deliver on the weekend. We stick by the statistics we went by but it didn’t seem like it would come off when missing the start by 3 Lengths and being taken on the inside of the track for the whole of the run. We are still pleased that we got people on at $15s and it was crunched into $6.60 with a large amount of money coming late. More Joyous also proved our early week speculations valid with those following getting on at $6.50 (Jumped under $4). Never trust those people at the BOM, only job where you can be wrong 100% of the time and still keep your job!
Onto the racing for the day.
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
HORSE SCRATCHED (was top pick) – Adamantium is a horse that is worth paying attention to. The form lines behind it have held up VERY well in the past for us with any race it came 4th or better in being quality. This is a huge step back in class and Katie jumps onboard to claim it back to a very reasonable 57kg when you consider it held 56.5kg in a 3Y-GP1! Has a good record at the distance with 2/2 from 6 and 2/4 from 7 on dead tracks. Looks suited here.
Unpretentious is a quality horse who drops down in class and 0.5kg. This horse jumps very badly and you won’t expect much better here. The good news it that it settles at the back of fields anyway. The horse always races and has some problem such as green, getting checked, suffering interference or getting blocked for runs. A smaller field will suit it. Interesting that it has NEVER placed or won in this class (has always been 1.3-2.5L away).
Beckon is a horse that has started it’s last three starts below $6.50 and not been able to get within 2.5L of horses in the race. THis is a step up in class and seems beyond it.
Arctic Flight is a horse worth watching after it’s run last start. Does have problems with it’s starts but if it starts well can go forward and run a massively fast time (ran under 1:09). Down 1.5kg from that run, query the ground but should go very close.
Finally, Horacio is a horse who has run ok it’s last two starts getting within 2.5L. down 8KG for this run, could be suited here.
Confidence Factor – 70%
This is a race that any of the listed horses below could win. Not hugely keen but let’s give it a shot!
Let’s start with the more crazy horse in the race. Boban Raced erratically it’s first two runs and was protested against last start (dismissed) when it won well over 1400. It will be making a huge run last, it just needs to be given a decent ride.
Underestimation is a horse that won’t be suited by the pace in the race. It was caught out at a slightly faster race last start and is up weight here. It will look like it could be there at the end but wide barrier and other class, look elsewhere.
Pillar of Creation is a very interesting horse. Raced greenly the first two starts with mistakes in both. Came hard from the back in both and finished 3rd at both. Could be pushed out to midfield and given a shot here.
Priority Road ran a good race first up. If money comes for it, take note, otherwise, look elsewhere.
Maluti is a consistent horse. First up slowly away and still won on debut. Last run was 1.8L 2nd in a good time over 1200 on this track. Will certainly be there at the end and bred to be better at this distance.
Maraatib is down 3kg and comes in well. Will enjoy the up in distance here and has good times. Don’t disrespect
Confidence Factor – 70%
Starting with Peninsula Dane who drops down in class here and only up 0.5kg. Two back won and beat Cavallo Nero by 0.5L who came out last week and won a race so good form line there. Then came out and Hung In on a 0.8L loss in harder company (2nd). Big Chance.
Au Contraire is a very impressive horse. Won a barrier trial at Rosehill on Heavy, so will enjoy a slow track. Won it’s first ever race on Slow over 1000 also. Last run it ran home very strong in a 33.11 sectional for a fast 56.610 time over 1000. Up in weight is slight issue but will run VERY well.
Eastward is a horse that controls races when it is given the chance and runs decent times. Could find best here but feel it will find one too good off 59kg. Looks too heavily weighted.
Chinchilla is the class of the field with placings in much harder races.. Personally don’t like it here, times are too slow.
Pixie Eyes from barrier 11 looks slightly outclassed here. Will run well but don’t think it can win.
Flash of Doubt has run very well the last two starts with a win over Somaly Miss two back and a 2nd in equal class (5 horse race). Interestingly, down 4.5kg with the claim on last start. Also comes in 3kg better off than Somaly Miss when it beat it by 1.3L. Looks value.
Frankly Fast is out of Bel Espirit and resumed well after a spell. Will run well but can’t back on the first perofrmance here.
Finally, Somaly Miss won very well last start but in an unimpressive time. Happy to be on others.
Confidence Factor – 65%
This race looks very easy on paper but in realistic we are not very keen
Start with the favourite who is fairly short. Almodovar comes into this with 1 win and 2 places at the distance. What is more interesting is it’s last two runs which have been 4th (1L loss to Chasse) and 2nd (4L loss to Maythehorsebemagic). Has been going the right way this prep and seems to have found a race it can win.
Take Out is the only other runner we can take seriously. Ignore the run two back and the record makes you believe the horse has a chance. Only problem is no slow track form.
Confidence Factor – 70%
Kutchinsky is a GP3 winner at 3 yr’s old. Since then, it hasn’t delivered on it’s potential. Will need to find something that doesn’t seem to be there in this race.
The Wingman comes into this race very well. Back into a winable class off two good recent runs at MV. The big issue here is the 0/0 from 3 record at Flemington. It seems to handle a shorter straight. 58kg makes us look elsewhere.
Fawkner is a horse that would win this race at it’s best. Katie Mallyon onboard claiming 3 gets him down to 56.5kg. Fawkner has won 2 from 2 on a slow track and 1 from 1 on a heavy track. When you also consider the 1/1 from 3 on dead tracks, you start to feel that the horse is after a dead or worse track. 1/1 from 3 at Flemington lets you believe it will like the track and 3/1 at distance means it’s suited here.
Cabeza and Supremacy are two horses that come in off a similar run from the back of the field. With similar weights it’s hard to pick out of these two. One must suggest Supremacy comes on more with the extra 210m.
Finally, Yellow Tagh is the most interesting long shot in the race. Claiming 1.5kg so comes in off 52.5kg from barrier 1. Speed map says it settles 4-5th on the rails and gets the best run of the race. Ran a very good race two back at Geelong over similar distance on a Slow track with good sectionals. Is down 2kg from that race and could surprise a few here.
Confidence Factor – 75%
Quite a few chances in this race as you would expect.
Rive Gauche is an interesting Zabeel bred runner. The first three maidens it lost in, all of the winners have gone on to be very successful and he started short in 2 out of those 3. Ran a good race last start 2.3L behind Backbone and will appreciate the extra distance. Will run well but not sure if the change of rider to Dunn is enough to make up the distance.
Practiced was harshly treated by the last up weighting and seems to be once again here. Backbone is much better at the weights here. Williams will give it a better chance than the last up ride but weight should catch up to it.
Compelled is a very interesting runner. Both it’s last two runs have been decent and times have been ok. Should run a good race.
Starkiato is a BIG danger to the favourite here. Finished 0.7L infront of Backbone on their previous meeting and finds itself 1.5KG better off as well. Has a great 1/1 from 2 record on slow tracks and ran a valid 0.2L second over 2400 last up on a good fast time. Looks to be the one to beat here.
Finally, the Fav Backbone has big claims. Has won 3 of last 4 races with two back 1.5L 7th. Was impressive in winning over 2400 and is well weighted to win again.
Confidence Factor – 85%
Switch best bet and second best bet if course is favouring those closer to the front by race 7.
A race with many chances once again.
Let’s start with a horse we liked a few weeks ago. Typeface has been running decent races and looked suited by the Flemingtont rack last time out. It ran well but seemed to not enjoy the extra 200m. It comes into this down in distance and down 4kg from that run giving it a very good chance here.
British General is a very interesting runner. Won 3 of it’s last four starts with two of the last three being in very competitive times. Comes in at a very reasonable 54kg and if produces a similar effort is in this. Only concern is two back in same class failing big time.
Prussian Storm is a horse that has won 2 times first up and has a win on slow and heavy grounds which makes you believe it will be suited here. Barrier 1 and 52.5kg work in it’s favour also.
Del Palio has won 3 of it’s last five starts with a good run last start 1L 3rd. Barrier 14 is a big disadvantage but shouldn’t matter. Does enjoy a slow track on previous form also.
Hotham Heights keeps proving itself as a solid racehorse winning 3 of it’s last 5 starts and running 3rd in the other two. Last run was in a very good time also. Has never missed a place over this distance with 2 wins and 8 places also. By far the lightest weight it has been in a long time which will suit.
Verdasco put in a brilliant effort from the back of the field behind Second Effort first up in much harder class over 1000m. Doesn’t have the best wet track form but has enough to win this. 56.5KG looks reasonable and barrier 5 also suits. 2/1 from 4 second up record gives us good vibes.
Translation ran on well for 2L 6th in Open class last run. Threatened to run well and provided that. Does it improve here? Only up 1.5KG and in lesser class it might but we are happy to risk it.
Dragon Lord is down in class from the Second Effort Race. Didn’t really impress hugely and up 3.5kg.
Confidence Factor – 70%
Crocdile Canyon is one we are happy to write off. It needs to go for a spell it seems.
Full Peal hasn’t come back well at all since it’s spell. It was gunning down these races with no problem before the spell. It might need to go back as it doesn’t look right. Can’t have it here.
This is the type of race set up perfectly for Under The Hat. Not too hard and weighted fairly well off 57 after claim. Won 4 back at this track over 1720 and this shouldn’t be any different. Has won on Slow before also. Will run a good race, just needs to be given the ride to match.
Akzar is a horse that hasn’t won since last year but in similar class and distance. Forgive first up when it jumped badly and look to last run where it was blocked for run 2nd. Could run well.
Noble Park and Gottino come into this with the same weight reductions. Gottino put in a valid 2.3L 5h at Flemington after being beaten 1L by Noble Park last up. Gottino we can’t see winning here having run the distance 5 times and never placing but Noble Park has won over this distance in a similar class when a 3YO at this track. Our only big concern is that Noble Park didn’t handlea slow track recently. Have to be against it on Slow.
Nipitious is a horse you just cannot discount. Is it 0/0 for 16 from 1st an 2nd up performances but last prep did win 3rd up over 2000m on a slow track. Not saying it will win but don’t discount!
Mr O’Ceirin is a very interesting runner here having resumed very well. Didn’t jump well against Sheilas Star first up and still finished 2nd. After that in harder company finished 1L 3rd at MV and then 5th 2.3L behind Mawingo. Drops down in class and only up 0.5KG. Has previous ran this distance and won 2 from 2. Only concern is 0/1 from 4 in class but 4 wins from 5 on dead tracks make you feel better about backing it.
Viva Delspec is one not to overlook. Has placed 3 of 6 times in this class of race and won 3, placed 4 from 13 at distance. First up ran a very good 3rd behind Constant Force. Will run very well again here.
Finally, Midnight Louie has won it’s last two races over 1800 and 1600m. Not sure what to make of that form up in class here but will be there at the end.
Confidence Factor – 80%
Lest we forget
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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