Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley and Ascot. The group races have moved away from the east coast and we have settled for a few quality races over in the west. A few of ‘our’ best have made the trip and Buffering looks the best of them. Our eyes for most of the early afternoon will be focused on Moonee Valley and just as the action starts to end, the quality races at Ascot will begin. Strap yourself in for an epic day of racing! As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting.
Moonee Valley Best Bet
Race 5 Planet Voyage
Moonee Valley Next Best
Race 4 Xavi
Moonee Valley Best Value
Race 6 Kim Command
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 8
Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 7, 12, 14
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7, 12
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10
Ascot Best Bet
Race 7 Buffering
Ascot Next Best
Race 6 Miss Rose De Lago
Ascot Best Value
Race 8 Ranger
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Ascot Race 4
A fair race to start the ‘main races’ on the card. I will be looking at the ‘main runers’.
Moonlight Bay surprised at big odds to claim a listed race which a few in this came through. Goes up 4kg which looks very harsh. Barrier 10 and weight against makes it hard.
Rohan is the favourite for the race and for good reason. Two back went very close in Group 3 and then two back when back further than expected and was forced to go wide. Will sit further forward today and is the one to beat. I suspect the speed last start did him in and I don’t see such a furious tempo. Key to this horse is to remember he has won over 2400m in 3Y-GP2 company so the extra distance is a big advantage.
Fanicio has never placed at this distance previously but last start run was good enough to suggest can run well again. Two back run was blocked yet got home well.
Doutable Maps out the front and shouldn’t put on much of a pace. Continues to imporve this prep and seems to be wanting the extra distance. Only issue is if he is classy enough.
Finnegan’s Gold had a good run last start at course and just like Doutable maps well. Should get the rail today which improves him onwards even more. Weighted much better than Moonlight Bay.
Mystic Prince looks a blowout chance. Maps for luck on the rail behind leaders who shouldn’t be falling back into the pack. Pike takes the ride and the horse won a 3Y-GP2 race over 2400 so the step up in distance looks very suitable. Weighted well.
Comments: Three key chances from the group above that stand out for me in Rohan, Mystic Prince and Finnegan’s Gold.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: 3 units Rohan. 1 Unit Mystic Prince. 0.75 Units Finnegan’s Gold.
Ascot Race 5
Not the best race all day. Fairly hard to match the form up but a few stand out.
Hard to go past good old Storm Burst. She is alwas there or there abouts. 1200m isn’t her ‘best’ distance, but has won 1 and placed 3 from 8 at the distance. Never won first up but placed 4 from 6. The price is overs for a horse who is every bit Melbourne city class.
Mendicity comes into this with a strong 1.8L 2nd in Group 3 to The Rising. Up another 100m. Only issue is barrier.
Celebrity Miss is the favourite in this after two good runs this prep. My issue with the horse is this is a big step up in class against all of these. May get trapped from barrier 1 is a big issue.
Ejay’s Girl has won 3 of last 4 including beating home the favourite 3 runs back. Equal weight and outside barrier. Will be hitting the line hard.
Rose of Choice finished last prep in easier company winning three in a row. Times were only decent at best but doesn’t run a bad race. How has she progressed?
Takanori is undefeated but hasn’t beaten much. Oliver goes on which is a good sign and will be pushing forward.
Comments: Tough race. Hard to split a few.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Ejay’s Girl on top from Mendicity
Ascot Race 6
You guessed it, another tough race on paper! Only covering the horses I think are genuine chances. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if something else won this.
Terror Force slowly away last start and blocked for a run only missed by a length. Down 0.5kg today while Saint Bro is up 2.5kg and others from the race up 1-1.5kg. Weighted to win and Maps well.
Crazy to think this is Saint Bro’s 3rd race, but he has earned 85k already and looks a very good sort. Barrier 16 is a huge issue and will have to push hard early to get over. Extra 200m looks suited.
Moonsearch’s run last start was solid enough and two previous went very close. Last start key is running wide and losing a plate.
Run for Rum got too far back last start off a slow tempo. Just ignore and look to previous runs. Maps to get a more forward run today.
Vitello comes over from Sydney after 3 strong start to finish runs. Finally got a win at Randwick off 59kg in easier company from start to finish off a slowish tempo. Saint Bro won’t be pushing the pace massively but he certainly needs to have improved again.
Thunderclap Newman won in impressive style last start in easier comapny at course and slightly less distance. He was really suited by the pace on out front and more importantly maps well today. Looks huge overs if runs similar to last start.
Miss Rose De Lago led start to finish the last two times. Down in weight slightly today. May try and take the lead again from barrier 12 and can run out a solid speed. Looks the main hope in the race.
Comments: Hard to ignore Miss Rose De Lago’s last run in group company and Thunderclap’s more than 5L victory.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Miss Rose De Lago to win. Lesser bet on Thunderclap Newman
Ascot Race 7
The Winterbottom Stakes over 1200m. We have a genuine WA superstar returning from serious injury VS the newly group 1 winning Buffering who is in career best form. A few behind can’t be discounted either.
Buffering: Finally, he breaks his G1 cherry this prep and continues that last start at Flemington with a 2nd G1 win in WFA class. He comes over here in super form and will be very hard to pass. No issue sitting outside Bara.
Spirit of Boom: Never runs a bad race but generally does find one too good. Never won in this class previously. Maps well enough from barrier and the front runners won’t be falling back on him.
Moment of Change: Strong runs the last two but needs to find more today. Maps ok but needs to find an extra gear to pass the front two.
Barakey: Controlled the tempo first up and only just held on. Never lost 2nd up (only lost 1 race from 13 total when got injured). He will fight on to the line, but is he better than Buffering at this stage of his comeback?
Watermans Bay: Solid enough horse, but not winning this.
Beach Express: Not in this level of race.
Excelorada: On last prep form would have ran ok, but not this prep.
Tiger Pete: Huge step up. Won’t test these.
The Rising: Solid enough win last start at course and similar distance in G3 level. Up 4.5kg hurts. Could sneak a place. Maps well.
Dominating: Hasn’t been doing what his name suggests this prep. Was poor first up. No thanks.
Shining Knight: Strong enough win in weaker grade. Not up to this.
Power Princess: The blow away chance. She continues to run well every time. She had no right to get within 0.1L of Barakey first up off a slow tempo but she did. Maps well but may be slightly further back today due to a very bad gate draw.
Comments: I can’t see anything outside of Buffering, Barakey or Power Princess winning this.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Buffering to win. Saver on Power Princess.
Ascot Race 8
The 2013 Railway Stakes. Let’s hope the stewards don’t ruin this one.
Luckygray: Won 8 from 13 at track. Didn’t measure up in Melbourne. Ran on very well last start behind Conservatorium and up extra 200m today. Barrier is horrible. Looks to be weighted poorly.
Mr Moet: Tough run last start at Flemington when lost a plate. Down 1kg today and if runs up to last two runs can go close. Issue is back down in distance and very wide barrier.
Conservatorium: Maps to get a sit today and down 3kg after a very tough win last start at course and similar distance. Issue is never won over 1600m but does go very well.
Smokin’ Joey: Last two runs have been huge. Up to 56kg today which is a slight issue, but won’t have any excuses. Will be coming from well back.
Playing God: Ran on very well last start behind Conservatorium and is weighted the best of those running in that race. Maps to sit further forward today. Don’t dismiss.
Grand Nirvana: Down 5kg today after running a 1L 2nd to Kerrific last start. Was a very solid run.
Kerrific: Average run two back in WFA but then won well in Group 3. Weighted very well today. Blow out chance.
Kincaple: Blocked for runs last start behind Conservatoium and weighted well. Not sure the best here though and need luck from mapped spot.
Fire Up Fifi: She always runs a good race but is best when ridden cold out the back. Down 3kg today and is going well.
Mutual Trust: Last start run an eye-catcher considering how well Mouro ran since. Probably takes a sit today and weighted nicely. D Oliver on board.
Longport: Weighted to win today. Huge start to finish win last start at Flemington in a solid enough time. Down 3.5kg today and maps to lead. The up in distance today actually suits as well.
God Has Spoken: The best weighted of any out of the Conservatium race.. but really does need to be. I can’t see it.
Platinum Rocker: Always runs well. I just can’t see her beating all of these.
Plucky Belle: Will be sitting out the back and pushing home very strongly. Arinosa would be favourite to win this race IMO so the price is simply overs.
Ranger: Weighted to win this today. Went very close last start and is down 6kg while others keep similar weights. Barrier 9 means gets every chance from the barrier.
Talent Show: Not good enough for this.
Comments: A large number of chances in this race. Very hard to be overly confident that you have the winner. All you can do is take the horses over the odds in the race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Longport on top from Ranger. Plucky Belle and Mr Moet are both over the odds also and deserve smaller specing.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Romancingthestone: Just ignore last start when was made to lead. Wasn’t suited down the straight. If runs up to last start run here, can win. Maps perfectly for a sit.
Miss Steele: Ran well two back behind Romancingthestone and last start was very poor. Not beating Romancing for mine.
Longhchamp Belle: Had every chance last start but wasn’t good enough. Weighted much better than those who beat her home but I’m not sure even with the weight gain she is good enough.
Go Again: Every chance last start. Not in this.
A Saucy Snitzel: Hard to see on previous form. Maiden only winner.
Mokoro: Missed start last start and ran a very solid time. Down 1.5kg today and even though only a maiden, I wouldn’t discount that run one bit!
Astro Miss: Good run two back but hard to have today in this class.
Rowdy Belle: Hard to judge on maiden win and then on heavy. Market will guide.
Spinning Light: Only just won a slowly ran maiden. No thanks.
Comments: Happy to be on Romancingthestone again. Main danger does look the favorite.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Romancingthestone. Saver Mokoro.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Thubiaan: Very disappointing this prep. Hard to see him turning this form around and weighted poorly.
Jumpin Jack Cash: Good win last start but has to improve on that. Weighted well with claim.
Val Mondo: Very disappointing this prep. No thanks.
Anudjawun: His last two runs have been sensational to be honest. Down 4kg today he looks the one to beat to me as long as gets in the right position. Only issue is if the tempo is strong.. but I don’t see it.
Braywun: Wasn’t the worst run last start at Caulfield. Down 1kg and down in class. May be ridden with cover today which could be the difference.
Ambers Kingdom: Not going well enough on recent runs.
Packing Empire: Strong run two back when 1.3L 2nd to Mujadale but was outclassed last start. Weighted ok but I struggle to see the win.
Trojan Destiny: Ran them VERY slowly around in country grade and got a 10L win. Didn’t beat much.
Big Ben Chimes: Not a city class horse on recent runs but is weighted well.
Master’s Degree: 14L win two back but then didn’t measure up in city grade. Hard to see even at weights.
Geeceegazza: Doesn’t look progressive enough for this win.
Retlaw Lad: Hard to see placing.
Artie’s Gold: Struggle to place.
Karata: Good run last start but this does look much harder to win.
Shirlaski: Maiden only winner.
Comments: Jumpin Jack Cash, Anudjawun and Brayroan are the main three on form. Could it be Anudjawun’s day?!?
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Anudjawun to win from Jumpin Jack Cash.
Moonee Valley Race 3
To Be Honest: Surprise winner last start at Cranbourne when beating Nautical. Down 1kg today after claim and meets Nautical 1.5kg better off at weights. Maps well enough.
Double Dee: Big 8 length win over much easier opponents on the slow last start. Won previous race at Bendigo also. Can lead and win this.
Thorn Star: The quality in the race. She is finally back up to a suitable distance. Went close last start and in equal class over further maps well enough. That extra 2 and a half weeks of training will be the difference today.
Nadhima: A run to follow two back at Geelong and back to a winable grade today. Barrier 3 means will be ridden for luck but is good enough.
Dancing Poetess: Coming over from Adelaide. Ran well last start and won previous. Will be getting back but will run on.
Tully Costa: Nothing wrong with her form on good or dead tracks previously and first up run well in country class start to finish win. Maps to try do the same today and claim helps.
Nautical: Missed the start last start which was the difference. Did have her chance though.
Chateau Latour: Won an average race last start but did have a few runners. Need luck from the back.
Princess Mossman: Only a fair win last start. Hard to have.
Prie Dieu: Hard to have on recent form in this class today.
Chiquada: 52kg.. barrier is an issue btu could be a sneaky place chance.
Comments: Not much confidence in this race. Many chances on form.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Thorn Star from Double Dee
Moonee Valley Race 4
Outlandish Lad: Up 1.5kg after claims today from a 3L Group 3 defeat behind Smokin’ Joey. Best run all prep and more to come. Ridden for luck for sure from barrier 2.
Prizum: Ran on well enough first up at Cranny but last start very poor. Hard to know what ti make of him. Barrier 1 they SHOULD try and lead.
Gottino: Not going well enough on runs this prep to threaten.
Lord Wimble: Very disappointing last start and previous runs were ‘good’ without threatening to be honest. Weighted ok.
Lord Durante: Keeps on going close without breaking through. Barrier 5 today means he maps well again. Weighted to win today.
LuckyI’MBareFoot: Last start run was solid enough due to tempo. Weighted to go close if produces best.
Lord Pyrus: Improved run last start at Donald. Down 2.5kg today and back to the Valley.. has never won here.
Xavi: Turned a corner last start when went to the front and was only run down late at Flemington. Finally drew a good barrier here and won’t have to do TOO much work to get a good position. The one to beat.
Brillianconi: Strangely mapped. Could go forward could go back. Either way, I can’t see him winning.
Olly I Am: Not in this class.
Comments: Have this down to three in Xavi, Lord Durante and LuckyI’MBareFoot.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Xavi to win. Smaller win bet on Lord Durante.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Vatican: Never runs a bad race here at MV. First up run was Huge. Next run was ok in WFA-G2 and last start unlucky not to get the win. Top weight here. Barrier does make it difficult to get a good spot but can still win.
Esprit De Bullet: Missed the start by 3 lengths but still bolted home last start at course and distance. Weighted well enough and maps out the back. A quality horse.
Planet Voyage: The one to beat. Should have gone much closer last start at Flemington. Down 1.5kg today and Lankan Rupee has won an even better race since. Maps perfectly.
King Cotton: Disappointing run last start at course and shorter distance… but he was off 62kg. Today down 10.5kg after claims and meets Vatican 2kg better off today since two back run. Maps to take a sit on the rail today and will be ridden for luck. Don’t dismiss.
Fab Fevola: Disappointing run first up when looked suited. Weighted well against these today but needs to improve lengths.
Flash of Doubt: Gone backwards the past three starts. Hard to have and will be ridden for a lot of luck.
Aregee McLaren: Weighted to win off 51kg. Will be hitting the line very hard.
God’s Window: Couldn’t have.
Impulse Buy: Won a course last prep and just continued to run well. Always goes close and from barrier 3 maps well enough to go close again. Issue is never won first up.
Youbolt: Fair to say hasn’t measured up in Melbourne. Hard to have first up but could be a blowout if brings best.
The Minister: Ran on well enough last start. Barrier hurts.
Chinzia: Hard to see winning in this class. Never won from 6 tries at track.
Comments: 7 horses I feel have the potential to win this but one stands out. Vatican, Espirit De Bullet, Planet Voyage, King Cotton, Aregee McLaren and Impulse Buy.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 8
Strategy: Planet Voyage to win. Small E/W on King Cotton.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Akzar: Hasn’t measured up in city class for a long time. Goes ok 2nd up but first run was poor. Hard to have even with claim.
Electric Fusion: Big run last start at Flemington and back in class today. Can run well with this weight as proven three back. Back to a suitable distance. Should get a solid enough position in run.
Marden: Has continued to improve the past month and went close to Multilaterial three back and then last start close to Mulaqen. Maps ‘ok’ but nothing special. Has the ability.
Alrouz: Super disappointing the last three runs. Weighted well today but barrier hurts and distance a concern.
Smarty Mac: Unlucky last start. Up in class and only down 2kg. Outside barrier hurts big time IMO. Hard to get a forward enough position.
Zephyron: Progressive tpe who won in harder company two back and then last start was close to Mulaqen. One of the chances, and maps to lead this up which is the key.
Mintaro: Just ignore last start run when ridden more forward than required. Look to two back run. Weighted well back in class and maps to take a sit 3 back.
Red Inca: Showed significant improvement last start at Flemington. Was suited to the longer straight TBH. Need a lot of luck from barrier 5 but has ability to win.
Diamonds At Noon: Hard to see measuring up considering the step up to city class, but has been going ok in country.
Star of Jeune: First up run was super poor… but to be fair, the horse had 75.5kg. Needs further.
Heez Nortorious: Ignore last start and look to two back when ran well in the Horsham Cup. Maps ok but needs to push further forward today IMO.
Kim Command: Back in class significantly and weighted to win off 52kg. hannaford, Vizhaka, Brayroan and Hurdy Gurdy Man are all solid form lines.
Republic Lad: Hard to have on recent runs.
Blazing Dragon: Rodd injured so won’t ride. Missed start at Flemington but ran on well. Back in class and very well weighted today. Quaddie it.
Comments: Many chances and hard to match up form, but our top pick, I think the price is very much overs.
Confidence: 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 7, 12, 14
Strategy: Kim Command E/W. Smaller bet Zephyron.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Horacio: Strong horse who never runs a bad race. Maps well today and goes well enough first up. One of the best in this.
Magnus Reign: Big win two back but weighted poorly today.
Solsay: End to last start was a very solid run at Flemington. Does go well first up and weighted ok here. The leader on paper.
Such Hope: Didn’t measure up last two runs when had chances. Weighted ok today but I’m not sure.
Hot Spin: Two runs this prep been very poor. Hard to have.
Baron Douro: Finished last prep going close at Flemington. Weighted well today but going to be too far back today IMO.
Highness: Couldn’t crack through for a win over in Adelaide this prep is a concern. Goes well at track and maps well from barrier 5.
Jamaican Warrior: Goes well first up but up in weight and in hardest race he has seen.
Muchos Respectos: Ran ok last start but this is a classier field and up 3kg doesn’t help.
Vain Attraction: Going ‘ok’ this prep but not super. Down to 55kg but up in class. Hard from barrier 17.
Defiant Angel: Progressive type. Last prep runs were solid enough. Don’t dismiss but will need to come from the back.
Tykook: Back into a more winable grade. Better at different tracks than MV imo.
Jiggle It: Disappointing run last start. Hard to have.
Unscrupulous: Excuses the last two runs. First up win was ok but 2nd horse did nothing since.
Aurora Lights: Placed 3 from 4 over this distance. Hard to ignore but will be a long way back.
Comments: Toughest race of the Quaddie.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7, 12
Strategy: Solsay E/W
Moonee Valley Race 8
Sumakaray: Improved run last start at Flemington. Up to 60kg today. Maps to have every chance.
Royal Bender: Just not going well enough this prep on recent runs. Need luck.
Dashitude: Huge win 2nd up. Up in class and weight. Could get an easy lead from the barrier.
Lady Antebellum: Maps out the back. Quality runner who needs luck today. Still every chance on recent runs.
Anabaa’s Legacy: Maps to go out the front. Very strong run last start at Flemington and weighted ok today.
The Long Road: At best could go well but maps out back and last start didn’t show much.
Mango Mojito: Maps to go for the lead. Up in class and down to 54kg. Weighted to go close.
Princess Toshi: Last start too poor.
Gig: Solid enough runner. Hasn’t won since 2012. Goes ok first up. May get caught wide.
Sensational Report: Down 4.5kg since last start. If dead track, would go well, but won’t et it.
Dash Divine: Going well but not well enough to break through with a bad barrier.
Flying Hostess: Will be getting very far back. Has potential.
Coronation Shallan: Maps well. Can place.
Comments: Not the best race to end the day but it will have to do.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10
Strategy: Dashitude on top from Anabaa’s Legacy.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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