Welcome to The Profits form guide for Bendigo Cup Day. Just the two races that stick out today with one being the Cup. No point jumping into races that you don’t need to at this time of year, but we have enough confidence (75% or above) to have a nice go on two races today. As always, we will be looking to back one or two runners at the right prices (they currently are) to get the value we want. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Bendigo Race 8 – Sertorius
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Bendigo Race 8 – Bendigo Cup
I have this race down to four key runners. I would be surprised, if not shocked if the others improved enough to beat all four of these runners home.
Kesampour: Outside barrier is an issue, but based on last three runs can go very well today. Up to 57.5kg today which is also an issue, but running that well last start behind an improved Sea Moon and Mr O’Ceirin the previous run, then you have to give this runner every chance today.
Sertorius: Three runs this prep have all had alot of merit. Seems to have been trained on for 2000-2400m races this prep and down 2.5kg today after a close 2nd to Pakal (who would be winning this race well) is very good form. Maps very well from barrier 5.
Gotta Take Care: Has been going very strong this prep until last start run on Saturday in the MV Cup. The pace suited and he had every chance but just wasn’t good enough. I would suggest he is good enough to go close today and you forgive last start, but he hasn’t had to measure up in Group company until last start.
Verdant: Watch his runs this prep and you would suggest he has been unlucky not to score a win.. especially last start in the Geelong Cup. Back to a less rain affected track today and at equal weight. From barrier 2 can go forward or back and can sprint home hard. Big issue is how he didn’t measure up last start behind Sea Moon and others form stack up better.
Comments: There doesn’t seem a great deal of speed in this race outside of Kesampour and Hippopus… but there should be a strong enough pace on.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Sertorius is the stand out here while Gotta Take Care’s run two back at Flemington behind Sea Moon is STRONG form and deserves a lesser bet also.
Bendigo Race 9
A large number of runners lacking in class. A few in this race I could be on if it was slow or heavy but that isn’t going to happen. That simply makes the favourite stand out even more.
Lampedusa has been well placed this prep by Moody. Winning two in a row over the 1400m trip this prep (won 4 from 5 at distance), is stepping up only marginally in class after a fairly paainless win last start over in Adelaide. Down 1kg and looks in well.
The main threat for me is Blanket Bay. The 2nd behind Lady Antebellum was strong enough last start and Lady has won since. Probably looking for further is why I can’t have on top.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Lampedusa to win. Savering Blanket Bay.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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