Welcome to The Profits form guide for 10 September 2014 at Bendigo. Last Saturday we got back on track with our best bets with our Next Best winning with ease and The Cleaner being one of many strong results for the day. We are on a roll of two mid-week Best Bets in a row and are looking to make it a 3rd today with Charmed Harmony going up at odds way above our ratings. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Bendigo Race 7 Charmed Harmony
Very talented horse who won with ease as our most confident bet of the year two weeks back by 2.3L with a further 4-5 lengths back to 3rd in a city open class winner in Morant. Down in class here but does meet a few others on the up slowly working into their prep. He will still have the fitness on all of the main threats today and will really enjoy the sting out of the ground. Confidence levels do decrease by 5% if we come up against a heavy rated track, but a dead or slow is certainly ideal (bit hard to know this amount of time out when you consider the flash-flooding currently around Melbourne).
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Bendigo Race 7
Charmed Harmony: Huge win last start at Sandown when never looked like losing. Beat Tristram’s Sun by 2.3L and Morant was a further 5 lengths back for 3rd. Back in class here today and up to 58kg, but all of this suits. The rain has come overnight and a Dead or Slow track is very suitable for him. Rates to win again and $3.40 being bet is crazy.
Road Warrior: Very average run last start and well back in class. Shown best on Good tracks in the past but has won on heavy previously. Does have a 2L 3rd to Akavoroun this prep on record but last two runs are well below this.
Haylaman: Measured up over much further than this last prep in harder company. Never won first up either.
Laohu: Ran well enough first up down the Flemington straight for 2nd and then had every chance out the front last start at MV but wasn’t good enough. Does enjoy a wet or dry track and likes this track as well. Has to improve again at the weights.
Esprit Rossa: Ran well enough first up and up in distance and back to a wetter track she has to be considered a chance here. Barrier 5 means she maps close enough to the lead and most importnatly she does enjoy a good tempo. Main danger.
Stratigraphy: Ran well enough last start at Moonee Valley even though ran dead last. Up in distance suits but best seen on good tracks.
Divine City: Two runs this prep has shown very little. Hard to have.
Grand Emperor: Ran home well enough last start at Caulfield and looked to be his best run for a while. Does need the track to be wet as well.
Offshore Echo: Shown best on heavy track at this track. Weighted ok but way up in class. Has to improve to beat all of these.
Secret Toy Bizness: Showed nothing first up but has in the past shown to be better than this. Has to improve to place.
Hirad: Last win was a good 10 months ago. Ran well enough first up but this is a much harder level of class. Will need to work hard to get outside the leader today.
Schockemohle: Very poor run first up and can’t see him improving enough here to place.
Mezeray Miss: Didn’t improve as much as required last start back in class at MV. Did hit the line ok but doesn’t map far enough ahead for me to rate her a killer chance at the weights.
Stamina: First up run was VERY VERY poor. Last start wasn’t given a chance. Will be VERY far back today and would need to find about 5 lengths on first up run to even be considered. I couldn’t touch or be near today.
Bashan: Ran very well first up but in much easier grade than this. Back in city, has to improve again today to be in the finish. Should be closer to $10 than current odds for mine.
Cadel Triomphe: Hard to rate him here. Did win maiden over 1600m but beat was over 2000+. Needs the run.
Glow Torch: Needs ot make up 8 lengths today.
Comments: Charmed Harmony is a huge price here today once again at $3.40 best price at posting. There are two to three main threats in the race, unlike one last time out, but i’m not sure all of these are racing or rating better than Tristram’s Sun has the last two runs. Espirit Rossa looks to be the main threat on mapping and ratings with improvement back to the wet and up in distance and has to be savered.
Strategy: Charmed Harmony to win. Saver Espirit Rossa.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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