Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield Races on 1 February 2014. Another day of relaxed racing at Caulfield is upon us and the rail is moved out another 3 metres. Expect a fair surface with a little bit of leader bias due to summer conditions as always. Last night didn’t go exactly to plan Best Bet wise, but at least the Next Best got up and a few long odds winners got home as well. I really struggled to find much ‘value’ on offer today. You won’t find much over-confidence and it is fairly rare that we back an odds on pop as the Best Bet. This horse just reminds me of a Black Caviar when she was on the up. I get the feeling he has a huge future to come and we haven’t seen his best. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 Lord of the Sky
Next Best
Caulfield Race 6 Bull Point
Best Place Bet
Caulfield Race 8 He’s Your Man
Best Value
Caulfield Race 4 Coram
Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 8, 12, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Kiss Me Ketut: Just ignore last start in the fact she jumped slowly, overraced and still finished strongly. Back to 1400m is perfect today and she is weighted to win down in class. Hope you got the early overs this week.
Mamwaazel: Never runs a bad race this horse. Couldn’t hold out MaggieBeel last start. Equal weight today and meets So Hasty equal at weights for 1.5L gap, although So Hasty did get blocked for a run. Maps to lead or sit outside the leader.. or event take a sit (could surprise).
So Hasty: Equal weight today with Mamwaazel today but Oliver goes on and Coffey off. Unlucky blocked last start and barrier 2 means will have every chance again. Should take a sit. Can win.
Scratchy Bottom: HHard to rate this girl. SHe won her 3YO maiden well and then was only fair at best in GP2. Not sure what to make of her.
Pindan Pearl: Way back in class today after a 2.3L 4th in 3YO company last start at Flemington. Ran ok without impressing too much, but if you look at her form lines, she can improve and go well here today.
Critical Angel: Average run first up. Up in class here and maiden only winner. Did go close end of last prep at course and distance for a 2nd.
Mambo Lady: Change of tactics last start? Went back due to jumping awkwardly but ran on ok without going close. 2kg better off here today. Win wouldn’t shock.
Rezoned: Unsure what to make of that run first up. Couldn’t back here and would need a wet track for her.
Ready Cuz: Weighted to win today, she is 4kg better off on last start where she went close to Mamwaazel and beat So Hasty. The value runner and three preps back in 2YO she ran 3rd to Long John which isn’t bad form lines! Maps very well from barrier 1, will need some luck.
Comments: The shorties are too short here. Many chances in this and looks to be some good value.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Kiss me Ketut on top. Smaller bet on Ready Cuz.
Caulfield Race 2
Desert Jeuney: Won 4 of 6 in career. Won 1 and placed 1 first up. Has won in 3YO and Open class so back to BM 90 today, he comes in well at 59kg after claims. Has won ovr 1400m, but would suggest 1600-1800m is his best. Can win.
Reparations: Ran home well in Listed company at course and distance last start for a 4th. WAYYY back in class today and only up 1kg. Maps awkwardly and won’t be as far forward IMO.
Commanding Time: Won or placed in his last 12 runs! Been off for more than a year. Never won in this class or at track but always runs well. Best over further IMO.
Our Hand of Faith: Ran well enough first up and improved on ebetter 2nd up off 60kg with a good win at course. Up 200m today and down 4kg up in class. Rates well.
Rawnaq: 3rd in 3YO-GP1 behind Fiveandahalf star over 2500m. Showed best over further but to be fair, only win was over 1400m maiden. Been off more than a year. Hayes yard said better over much further and off tendon injury happy to see him just finish well.
Free of Doubt: Poor run last start up in class. Back in class today and off 53kg comes into this nicely. Maps to sit outside of the leader from a poor barrier draw today.. back to 1400m suits. If they run it slow out front, will be very hard to pass.
Sistine Demon: Been off more than a month after winning four in a row. Down to 53.5kg today which looks very positive for him today back to 1400m. Maps well and should take a sit today.
Youbolt: Not going well enough this prep to suggest can go close.
Elwick Jack: Ran well last four runs this prep. Another step up in class but weighted nicely. Won’t run it too fast out the front. Sneaky chance
Comments: Very tough race. A few resumers with unknowns. 4 horses backing up off wins.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Reparations E/W.
Caulfield Race 3
Eraset: Huge, surprise, victory last start at Flemington. Up 3kg today and giving 4k to Road Trippin. Back to 1600m no dramas and maps to be 1 out 1 back with every chance today.
Road Trippin: Ran on well enough last start at Flemington. Maps to sit much closer today and wouldn’t shock with a win here. Probably over correct odds here.
Flying Hostess: Never runs a bad race and continues to improve. Up in class again today for her hardest test yet but Weir has placed her perfectly this prep. Weighted well.
Morant: Hasn’t won since 2011. Last start was ok but this is much stronger lcass. Can’t have on previous 3 runs.
Infinite Energy: A big danger today, down to 54kg here, his four runs this prep have all has merit. Up to 1600m the issue for mine.
Galileo Gold: rate on two back run not last start. Could sneak a place.
Comments: I’m banking on the fact that Eraset has peaked with the last start run and won’t reproduce such a high rating run. Giving 4kg, I like the chances of Road Trippin to finish infront of him. Flying Hostess will go close again today.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Road Trippin’ to win.
Caulfield Race 4
Bugatty: Impressive enough winning last start at Flemington down the straight. How good is he? I’m not convinced. Happy to be against at the odds today.
Jarklins: Ran on very well for 2nd last start at Flemington off a fairly average tempo out the front. Can improve.
Illustrious Lad: Bucked at start but still won by 1L which is impressive. Can continue on with solid form and run well here.
Zululand: Strong 2nd at course last prep to Nordic Exmpire. Been off since early December. Hayes yard said “Barrier might work against him” – didn’t seem overly convinced by David’s reaction that he thinks the horse will win.
Coram: Ran on extremely well from dead last off a 1:00.5 time over 1000m on a dead track at MV last start. This is impressive off such a slow time that he got within 1.5L off a quality runner in Silversands. Looks value here.
Hawking: Only average last prep only run. Hard to see the improvement to win this.
Eqdaam: Price runner with market only guide. Oliver takes the ride. Barrier 11 a big concern.
Tashbeeh: 3rd in barrier trial and then “He has trialed very well in private” “will be better on more ground” “hopefully we can get a bit of a surprise” says David Hayes. Not the best barrier, but Hayes is very keen that this is his blue diamond colt.
Nayeli: Very impressive Waterhouse maiden winner in a quality time. Favourite for a reason… but how often does she actually win with a horse in Victoria?
Cautious: Ran on well off a solid enough tempo last start. Has to find lengths today though.
Tahni Dancer: Market your only guide.
Comments: Another tough race. 3 stand out for me here in Coram, Tashbeeh and Nayeli.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Backing Coram and Tashbeeh for equal stakes. Saver on Nayeli.
Caulfield Race 5
Acapela: Gone backwards last two starts. Poorly weighted again and hard to have.
Crucial: Down 0.5kg today after a very solid 2nd to Flying Hostess after pulling up lame! Will go VERY close and maps very well from barrier 5
Are There Any: Huge run last start when absolutely putting them away by 2.3 lengths at course and slightly less distance. Equal weight today up in class, she looks an impressive mare and will improve up in distance again. Barrier 4 means she will most likely get 1 out 1 back and be very hard to beat.
You’re Discreet: Shown nothing in two runs this prep when jumping awkwardly both times. Hard to have.
Text’N Hurley: Down 2kg today but was beaten off easily last start by Are There Any. Maps to need a lot of luck.
Five All: Too far back last start at Flemington, but from outside barrier will be as far back today. Down 3kg is key and weighted 2.5kg better off against Crucial is strong.
Spellrocker: Equal weight today and will lead from barrier 3 or sit outside the leader. We found her two runs back, I think we got her in this class this prep and these all look better.
Vixen Hustler: Equal weight today. Will be as far back. Hard to see turning around the form.
La Venta: Barrier 2 and maps to go forward. They ran far too fast last start and she finished very well all things considered. Equal weight today and she is in with a big chance if she can control the tempo.
Comments: Not sure they will run this along at a very good clip at all. Makes it interesting for a few in this race. Are There Any stands out and I have to back her again off last start run.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 9
Strategy: Are There Any to win. Smaller bet on Crucial.
Caulfield Race 6
Fast N Rocking: Never won first up but he always tries. Ran well first and 2nd up at course and distances last prep and can expect similar today. Hayes didn’t seem overly confident talking about the horse, but they were hoping he would go very well and he has given him as the best of the chances this weekend (gutsy in this race!).
The Quarterback: Many around tipping him up. I can’t see it. Sure he ran well last prep but he won a maiden and a 3YB-70 at sale. Happy to be against here.
Resistant: Quality horse who won a good race last prep and ran some nice races after that. Barrier gives him the run required to have a chance.
Bull Point: Looks the winner if you go off the first prep. 1.8L behind Zoustar in the 3YO-Gp1 and previous runs did win a 2YO by 3L. Going well this prep and blinkers on will help. Weighted so well against these.
Prince Harada: Over-rated describes this horse. Didn’t get a win last prep but jumped $4.5 to $6.5 in all 3 starts not getting closer than 2L away. Won’t be too far back today because of such a small field, but 1400 looks the better distance for him and I just don’t respect him. Prove me wrong?
Monkstone: The big unknown in the race. He ran a short priced fav first up and a little known Lord of the Sky blew him and the field away by 3.5L. He won in 2YO very well next start before going into the 3YO races and failed behind Long John. This is his distance and he can go well.
Hard Stride: Only won a maiden. Did run a close 4th 1L at 2YO behind Weinholt here and then 0.8L 2nd to Churchill dancer at Flemington. Didn’t show me enough first up.
Worth A Ransom: Can’t back with any confidence on previous form lines.
Comments: If Bull Point returns at his best, he wins. If Fast and Rocking gets out at the right time, he will be hitting the line very hard. If Resistant has improved, he is a blow out chance.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6
Strategy: Bull Point to win. Saver Fast N Rocking.
Caulfield Race 7
General Truce: He got the charmed run down the best ground taking a sit at Flemington. I like, love him, but I can’t have him here.
Espirit De Bullet: Very impressive winner from the back last start at Flemington down the straight. Will be very far back and running on very well. Speed out front will help.
Vatican: Meets Espirit De Bullet 1.5kg better off today. Very big win last start in equal class at course out the front on to be fair, what looked a leader biased rail. Barrier 12 hurts but will be out the front pushing the pace. Not the worst $20 shot I’ve ever seen!
Adamantium: He is back! Group 3 winner two preps back in 1:08.2 low-flying at Flemington, he had breathing issues last prep and had a throat operation to fix that. Just write-off last prep. IF he has come back in form and is breathing better, the race will be run to suit with a very fast tempo and he is a massive chance at big odds.
African Pulse: Been on this horse the past three runs.. a long time between all of those 3 though stretching back to 2012! Doesn’t get run much and does have issues. Poorly weighted here today if you ask me. I couldn’t have at the price. Maps well may need luck.
Shamal Wind: All her runs last prep had a lot of merit. 2nd in Group 2 and M-Gp3 class and a good 6th in Group 2 as well and a open win and 5th in M-Gp3. Never far away. Won 3/3 first up in career is key. Goes ok at track. Barrier massive issue but enjoys tempo and will be running on well.
Excelorada: Last four runs over at Ascot in WA have all been strong in Listed company over this distance or 100m more. Just hasn’t been able to get a win. Can he win this? Can go close.
Didntcostalot: This prep he has been running some solid races, but who has he been beating? Times have been good but I can’t see him getting the cash for 1st.
Dont Get Me Excited: I thought his run last start had a lot of guts. Didn’t have the best luck in running. Can go well.
Kiss A Rose: This is a big step up in class from those 3YO wins and runs. Can’t dismiss but can’t have either.
Halle Rocks: Just not going anywhere good enough to win this IMO.
Lord of the Sky: Absolutely huge last start at course and distance. Low flying. Can and SHOULD run very very well, set a very fast tempo and could win by 3 lengths.
Brillant Bisc: Won’t go close on last prep runs.
Comments: Lord of the Sky looks the real deal. I can’t go against him here.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 12
Strategy: Backing Lord of the Sky. Smaller bet Adamantium.
Caulfield Race 8
Ethiopia: Not a massive surprise but his first up run was rubbish over 1200m. Up to 2000m where he has never won previously. Hasn’t won since 3YO over 2400m.
Prairie Star: His runs last prep were disappointing. First up also very disappointing over 1400m. Back to best distances. Not sure I can have him here.
Cooldini: Ignore first up over 1400m. Up to 2000m today suits but to be honest needs further I’d suggest. Boss taking the ride for a reason? talented horse but better into preps?
Oregon Spirit: Good win at Mornington two back but last start was poor at Flemington. Looks beyond him here.
Motivado: Group 3 winner last year but was an average one at best. Hayes says “Come back very well” and should be suited by distance.
Hes Your Man: Up to 2000m today suits him perfectly here. Last two runs have been very good and he is the best horse in this race. Weighted a dream today and will be VERY hard to beat. Maps well.
Shenzhou Steeds: Both runs this prep average at best. Suited by extra distance but not sure he is as good as others here.
Extra Zero: Run three back was very solid. Was given an easy time out front. Got that last start but was still found out. Can’t see the win.
Surpass: Done nothing this prep.
Laidback Larry: Huge run last start. Equal distance today and expect him to be low flying again today. Down 2kg is a big help. Hard to beat.
Prince Of Penzance: Taken a sit against this horse all prep and happy to do the same again today. Up to 2000m suits but finds himself in an even harder race than last start giving weight to others.
Sindarin: Won’t measure up on previous form this prep.
Comments: Only a few chances here. He’s Your Man stands out again for me and I’ll be having a good go on the place while I will be on the win also.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 8, 12, 13
Strategy: He’s Your Man on top (Really like the place price). Saver on Laidback Larry.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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