Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on 15 January 2013. Just a quick and dirty review of three races today with quality runners. I have reduced the form down to the key runners that come up as the main threats for me. Just the one Best Bet who I feel is a great price and should be closer to a $2.10 price not $2.80. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 Prince Stratum
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 5
Six runners that I could consider to win this wide open affair.
Text’N Hurley progressed really strongly last prep to win at course and distance in much harder company. First up she sat out the back which isn’t her normal pattern over an unsuitable distance. Up 240m today onto a surface she enjoys and down in class again, off 56kg she is weighted to win if good enough.
Are There Any ran over nicely last start. Has ability on previous form and can’t be discounted.
Five All has been super unlucky the last two starts. Hasn’t been able to heart it out against two very strong horses in harder company if you ask me. Weighted well today, maps perfectly from barrier 2 and can win.
Lonhtime ran very well second up and is down in class today (although this is a tougher field I think). Weighted well but maps poor from the barrier. Not sure she gets the breaks needed here.
Duet‘s last two runs have been of great merit. Will be going back and running on. On previous form the distance will suit, but can she improve again? Weighted nicely.
Ignore Bian Divine’s last start run and rate on two back. Can run well.
Comments: The stands out in this race for me are Text’N Hurley, Five All and Duet.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: At the prices I’m finding it hard to invest. I would want closer to $4.8 for Text’N Hurley while if they are running on, anything around $12 for Duet looks suitable.
Caulfield Race 6
Four runners of interest here.
My Survivor with the claim of 3kg today comes in off 56kg. That is 1kg less than last start in much harder company at Flemington. Being ridden out the back last start, he was blocked for a run twice in the run and finsihed off well enough. Maps well today.
General Groove ran very well first up at MV for 3rd. From barrier 4, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sit further forward today and expect him to run well.
Prince Stratum is the one to beat for sure. Barrier hurt him last start and he finished off super being Laohu. Up 2.5kg today but Zahra knows this horse goes back on and from a good barrier will settle in a forward enough position. Hard to beat.
Tycoon Express looks the blow out chance to me. Two back ran 1.8L behind Laohu and then last start ran home very well behind Decircles down the Flemington straight after jumping poorly. Wayyy down in class and weighted nicely. Will need a fast tempo to be on.
Comments: Very happy to be having a big bet on Prince Stratum today. Gets the right conditions, weights and a much easier field today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Prince Stratum to win. Smaller bet on Tycoon Express
Caulfield Race 7
Five runners stick out for me in this race where we have a $1.70ish favourite in Lord of the Skys.
Let’s start with the favourite Lord of the Skys. Won well at 2 beating a classy horse in Monkstone convincingly and didn’t disappoint on return. Most were fairly disappointed in the way he won, but 3 runners behind have all come out and won very well since. Down 3kg today after claims to 52.5kg, the only issue is barrier 16. What price should he be? I have him in this class of race at around the $2 mark and would consider a lay at anything below $1.70.
Sons of God is a really interesting runner coming down from Queensland. This is a much weaker race than what he is used to, but considering the heat in Melbourne right now, you have to think he is more used to this type of dry good surface than most these Victorian runners. From barrier 3, he maps perfectly and off his run two back, has claims here. The only issue is the weight.
Truffle is a horse I have a lot of time for having run home a winner for us a few times at MV in the past. She missed the start first up down the straight at Flemington but finished home strongly behind Awasita. Off 52kg today, she comes into this weighted to run well and maps well enough if they are running on at the track today.
Sassy Tycoon won in devastating fashion from start to finish two back at MV over the 950m. Last start she didn’t handle the dead track and this seems a trend with the horse. The track will be very GOOD, could be Good 2 by this race and when you consider she is dropping back from F&M class to this, she comes into this very well at equal weights. Maps perfectly from barrier 2 and will be hard to pass if the rail is working out well.
Finally, Sorisam is a horse who showed enough this prep to suggest if he pulls it all together and apprectiates the ground, that he could go very close. Down in class, finished strongly last start when had issues at the start behind Kaiser Sun who is a form horse to follow. The barrier is a massive issue but watch for him late.
Comments: Coming into this race, I thought Lord of the Sky at around $2 would have been the bet.. but after pricing up my market and looking around at prices, I can’t be with him at the price. I think he is the one to beat and does win this 50% of the time, but the price doesn’t represent that. If the rail is playing out well, then Sassy Tycoon looks the one to beat.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: If Lord of the Sky gets over the $2.10mark, I will be having a go, if not, I will be 2 units Sassy Tycoon to place, 1 unit to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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