Welcome to The Profits form guide for Horse Racing at Caulfield on Australia Day weekend. We have a nice card on offer and outside of the 2YO races, we have some high confidence in most races. There are some good short priced runners and also some very long prices that appeal at overs. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 Romancingthestone
Next Best
Caulfield Race 2 Iconic
Best Value
Caulfield Race 1 First Print
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 8, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Means A Lot: First up run was ‘ok’ but didn’t show me enough to suggest up in class off 55kg after claims today that she should be considered a genuine chance.
Kiss Me Ketut: Missed the start, over-raced and wasn’t ridden out yet didn’t disgrace. Back to 1400m suits today and will be enough speed on out the front.
Miss Middleton: Ignore last start and look to two and three back. The first up run had a lot of merit and she seems better over the 1400m to me. Will position last and run on. Weighted well and in-form jock takes the ride.. only question is if she is good enough.
Balaclava Lady: Led for a long way, but was claimed by the better horse on the day in Gig. Gig would be going around a short priced favourite in this so I think you can rate that form. Needs a dead track IMO. Can win.. needs a good ride.
Lonhtime: Positioned well last start and ran home well but just wasn’t good enough. Down 2kg today but up in class.. could win.
Rayhan: Last two runs have been hugely disappointing. Weighted ok but I just can’t have.
First Print: Won a race last start ran at crazy speeds. Won’t get that pace today but showed her potential. Extra 100m today, down 5.5kg today.. now or never for this one to get a win in this class.
Comments: I showed my hand on Twitter last night. The price for First Print is just crazy overs. The horse ran well two back and beat home Miss Middleton. Last start improved again and shouldn’t be $30+ today. I think the two to beat are Kiss me Ketut (how far will she go – is she on the downward of the prep now?) and Balaclava Lady (will have the run of the race being allowed to control the tempo).
Confidence 80%
Strategy: First Print on the E/W. Also having a bet on Balaclava Lady.
Caulfield Race 2
Bocuse: How well is he going? Off 59kg after claims today.. ran 2nd to Black N Tough down in Tasmania and then failed to place last start in ‘harder company’ at the bool. Not been seen for more than a month. Back to 1000m looks an issue for me today.. 6 runs at track for 0 places.
King Cotton: Didn’t return well enough last prep. Been off 2 months which is a fairly short spell.. weight today certainly an issue. Never placed at track. Does go well first up.
Corvidae: Not won since 2011… never placed first up.. Weir yard flying though. Goes well enough at track and down in class to easiest race in a LONG time. Weighted well as well off 58.5kg after claims.. Can’t dismiss.
Cavallo Nero: I’ll say it for you. Meow. We backed him in last prep and paid the price. We did keep getting out money back or small profits due to his place prices, but overall he just didn’t get us a win with two painful 3rd by 0.3 and 0.5L. Goes well firs tup and run well here. 1000m a little sharp for him but has won at it 2 times previously.. weighted well enough if going right. I’d wanna see how he looks before putting my money down.
Iconic: Beat Villa Verde, ran 2.5L behind Lion of Belfort and then from the back ran 2nd to Bernabeu who was the run of the Spring… WAYYYY back in class here… the stand out. Oliver takes the ride. Barrier an issue but will settle back. Speed is enough and if returns at 85%, will be hard to stop.
Starshot: Won an ok 970m race last prep and then found out in much eaiser grade than this. If returns at best could place.
My Survivor: Ran well last start at big odds. Back to 1000m suits today and down 2kg but up in class. Doubt they lead on him today and is over the odds.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Looks the main threat to Iconic on paper. Won well over the 950m three back but previous two runs been 1.5 and 2L off it. Way down in class today but not against Iconic. Weighted well..
Borsay: Good horse. Goes well first up. Maps well from 6. Will he measure up? Could run well.
Paaratte Pat: A loose cannon to bet on. You never know how well he will go. Not enough break after the last run for me to have any great confidence.
Comments: Iconic Was running in G3 class at 2 and just missed.. running in 3YO class at 3 and got a win and 2nd. Won 335k for a reason and this is a class and a half below him.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Iconic to win
Caulfield Race 3
Golconda: Impressive run last start at course and distance. Spelled and returning and you can expect she has been wound up for this. Barrier 3 and looks to have the race to suit. Big chance.
Fontein Ruby: Oliver takes the ride and sounds keen. Ran wide last start during race and also lost a plate which is key. Times were sound on sectionals.
Sakitto: Two runs and found one too good both times. I can’t see that changing..
Avanti: Green first up but still got the win. Has more progression to come.. probably value for place.
Eloping: How often do 900m runs match up? Not very often. The time was ok though.
Jester Angel: Market only guide. No
London Lolly: Hawkes/Boss Combo. Not as much money come for her as I would have expected.
Lumosty: Fastnet Rock crossed with an Irish sprinter/stayer who ran 9th in a Guineas on a heavy track and 2nd in a Brownstown (Group 3 Irish race over 1400m). Flew out here ran in a Dane Ripper and wasn’t seen after that. Really like this breeding. If looks good in the yard, and support comes… watch!
Tawteen: Trial was only fair. Prefer to see her race today then follow if runs well.
Comments: Can never have confidence in a race like this early BD form. Golconda on FORM is the one to be with while on breeding I get a little excited looking at Lumosty.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Golconda to win. Smaller bet Lumosty.
Caulfield Race 4
Cornrow: Showed ‘something’ first up but off the tempo really should have given more. Weighted ok today and Oliver takes the ride. Not for me.
Mohave: Run at Randwick last start had merit. Gone for a spell and come back today. Barrier works out well. Can run well.
Ducal Castle: Beaten by a better horse last start. Bugatty looks progressive and I’d suggest this horse would improve on a turning course. Will be ridden for luck from barrier you would suggest. Can win.
Stingray: Ran ‘ok’ in 2YO-LR first up but could only manage 4th. Next start 2nd on heavy in a maiden. Win wouldn’t shock but others appeal more.
Tudor: Only fair over 900m. Times don’t stack up here for mine.
Berlutti: Not sure what to make of him. Price generally gets his 2YO’s running well first up.
Congress: Showed absolutely nothing last start but did pull up with poor recovery. Spelled and coming back for this campaign. Not sure I could trust here and money suggests punters can’t either.
Grande Rosso: Not a fan of Written Tycoon 2YO’s.. but has been very well backed.
Munjiz: Hayes has given the ride to Walker over Schofield.. or did he give Schofield the better one? Always hard to tell!
Statue of Warriors: I tracked down the trial footage and thought there was merit in it. Looks over the odds today and I’ve tweeted the guys at The Trial Files to see their thoughts. Worth seeing their reply on their feed.
Comments: No confidence to bet into this one unless our friends at TTF give the nod to Statue of Warriors, then I may have a go at the place.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Statue of Warriors to place.
Caulfield Race 5
Bulbula: Last campaign failed to claim a win after a good early 2YO career. Did run some decent runs though with a GP3 3rd and placing in a 1100m and 1400m 3YOF. Schofield comes off and Oliver goes on. Maps to go forward and hopefully not get stuck out. Goes well enough first up, likes the track.
Romancingthestone: Boy she was impressive last start. Big step up in class today but I think she has the class to do this with no issues. Weighted to win again today and Cartwright gave her the ride of the day last start. Barrier 1 is a little tricky but should be handy early and focus on getting out around the turn is key.
Spirits Dance: Bit of a surprise winner down the straight in a race I’m not sure was overly strong. Back to a corner track today 2nd up and Schofield keeps the ride down 1.5kg today up in class. awkward barrier. Can win.
Whistle Baby: Down the straight last start was well backed and was huge late running them all down. Up 1.5kg today and up in class but can’t see in such a small field why she can’t repeat that effort.
Orvieto: 2L winner last start over a fairly average field. Looks under the odds big time today and I’d be willing to lay her here.
Just Too Hard: Looks progressive on maiden win times but others here look better in.
Leicameares: Need to make up a lot of ground that just doesn’t seem to be in her.
Comments: The price on Romancingthestone is nuts. She should be favourite in this field.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 6
Strategy: BACK Romancingthestone to win (with this barrier I will not be taking a place bet). LAY Orvieto.
Caulfield Race 6
Chase The Rainbow: 1.5kg better off today against Anlon and equal with Limes. Ran on well from the back off a fast tempo.. loomed but wasn’t close. Can improve again today but I prefer others at odds.
Gondokoro: 0 places at distance and 0 places at track… needing further.
Limes: Ran so well last start at Flemington off a hot tempo out the front. Was a sitting duck and just got claimed at the post by Anlon. Shorter straight today and 1.5kg better off, he will need to lead it up today but there is no speed in the race and he can get some cheap sectionals and brain them if good enough.
Anlon: Lucky to win two back and was a brave win last start showing his will. Tough barrier draw today to get in but will roll back and come home strong late.
Star Rolling: Talented. Only one go at similar distance (1300m) for a 7th in a maiden. Next start over 1600m won a maiden by 3.5L and continued to progress through the ranks. Big win over 1800 last prep in listed company and then ran well without winning in Cranny Cup. Can win.
Reparations: Disappointed for run even though a strong 6th 2.3L first up. Up to more suitable distance where run in open class here last prep from the back. Goes well 2nd up but better into runs.
Finishing Card: He had his chance last start for us and ran home well but couldn’t deliver the knock out blow. Up in class today and up 2kg.
Primitive Man: Ignore last start when not suited by tempo.. look to run two back and also look 4 runs back in 3YO at course and similar distance when he was huge from the back. Weighted well… would you back Kaiser Sun here?
Comments: Quite a few chances in this wide open race.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10
Strategy: Limes on top from Star Rolling.
Caulfield Race 7
The Wingman: The money came last start for him when his form suggested he was miles off the win.. but Oliver jumped on and got him home. Up 2kg today is a little harsh but he loves the track and distance.
Base: Not the same horse we saw winning in 2011.
Streets of Seattle: Ran home very well last start at Flemington off no weight. 57kg today way back in clasa nd up to 1800m… he has a good record around these distances and from barrier 3 they have to push forward with him today for sure? Open class winner just five months ago back in BM-84 grade. Can run well and can win.
Auld Burns: Just not going well enough on last three runs to suggest can win this even at weights.
Use The Lot:I like this horse. Ran well in Listec ompany last start almost 2 months ago. Comes back today off 54kg down significantly in grade… but the last time he ran in this type of distance an average horse Tycoon Rob beat him. Best has been over 2200-2500m.
Heisman: Been well placed this prep with 0.8, 8.5 and 1.8L wins the last three runs. Out of the country and into the big leagues. 53kg looks solid here and a win wouldn’t shock.. but does look short.
Quick Snitzel: Got too far back, ran on but was too late. Was a crazy price that day anyway and those who backed him deserved to lose. Much better price today but this is also more competitive. Can win.
Savitar: A non-winner, great run two back at Caulfield over 2000m when blocked for run and almost won, last start poor. Down to 53kg, weighted to win.
Nesbo: Nesbo is one on the up. Last start just got the win at FLemington and needed the whole straight. Needs to have trained on a little more during the two weeks.
Wairoa: Just ignore last start and even three back on heavy. What are you left with? a 7.5L win off 60.5kg over 1750m at Pakenham and a 5.5L win at sale off 58kg. Down to 53kg here.. is amazing value. Maps to get a forward run today.
Coghills Creek: Doesn’t look anywhere good enough even on last start win.
Comments: Wairoa is the major overs here. Maps well and should be half the price. May have a small go on SOS also.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: Wairoa E/W
Caulfield Race 8
Vatuvei: Weighted poorly here and shown nothing all prep. No thanks.
Gottino: Continues to run well. Poorly weighted here today though and hard to have.
Outback Joe: Big win over 2800m last start at Flemington. Back in class big time and back 400m is an issue. Weighted well.
Prizum: Weighted well on last start run but giving weight to a few who have beaten him home last two runs so hard to have even from good barrier.
Thubiaan: Didn’t show us anywhere near enough last two runs to back today at these weights.
Instrumentalist: Ran home well last start at Flemington. Down 1.5kg today helps, barrier also positive and should settle further forward today. Jockey the key as well. Big chance.
Angelology: Will get a sit today and not be made to lead which is a positive. Down 3.5k and gets 2kg on a few runners here and compared to Gottino 2L two back… Gottino is up 7.5kg and Angelology is down 1.5kg. That is a 9kg swing. Angel started $1 more than Gottino last start when ridden incorected and comes up $6 more than him today. There is value in his price and if reproduces the run 2nd to Index Linked, can go well.
Altonio: Last three runs have just been too poor to find enough reasons to see a turn around today.
Alrouz: Didn’t seem to handle the step up in distance very well last start getting well beaten. Up in class today but weighted well.
Reigning: Poorly weighted today against others from the previous form race so I’m happy to bet around.
Heaven’s Riches: Not in this on firs tup run.
Suspended Gem: Last two runs had merit but others will beat him home.
Magnapal: Base on two and thre eback runs not last start which was just a forgive. Weighted well… but others look better?
Proper Madam: Not going well enough to suggest a win here.
Comments: I have this down to three in my mind but have 4 in the Quad. Outback Joe is crazy odds today on last start run. It was huge and he is so well weighted today it’s crazy. Instrumentalist is a key hope here but is probably around the right price while Angelology has the dream mapping and is weighted to win, even though he is a non winner.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 13
Strategy: Outback Joe to win. Smaller win bet Angelology.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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