Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield with a mixture of Rosehill and Doomben races thrown in. Not the best week we have ever seen so time to get back on track. A few good E/W goes early on in the card and then we slowly work our way back up in the confidence levels later in the day. I will be covering it all including all the market moves once again on twitter and most importantly, updating you on any bias and updating tips if needed. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 Flamberge
Next Best
Caulfield Race 3 Gracious Prospect
Best Value
Caulfield Race 8 Leveraction
Lay of the Day
Rosehill Race 7 Heart Testa
Caulfield Quaddie
Very wide here. I would be shocked to see more than one favourite win in these four races. I can see a few $20+ runners who are great chances. Quaddie could be 30k+ if some upsets to go to hand so happy to take a low %.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 7, 8, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 12, 15
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 8, 12, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 5, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
You know me. I can’t tip you anything here without form. Watch for the money to come for one. It’s been close or right to start the year in these races.
Caulfield Race 2
Pompeius: Disappointed last start not ridden correctly. Forgive run. Back down in class but cops a big weight.. but can still win this. Barrier 4 should be ridden forward. Big chance.
Girl In Flight: Won two in a row on Slow and Good both by 2L. Big step up in class again here today and up 2kg.. but can run very well.
Collins Street: Tough win 2nd up at Cranbourne. Comes into this well.
Speed Gonzales: Only a fair maiden win from start to finish when didn’t set the race alight. Should be stuck off the rail today.
Smart Guy: Hard to see this one taking the big step up straight away.
Pageant: Couldn’t win a maiden! Has potential and will be coming from the back but I can’t have.
Cottonwood Grove: Crawled out front and sprinted away from them in a maiden. Barrier 1 and could try push for the lead. A chance.
Unique Dream: Not in this on maiden form.
Comments: Happy to take on the fav. Too short. Pompeius looks huge overs.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Pompeius to win from Cottonwood Grove
Caulfield Race 3
Essential Element: Ridden incorrectly the last two starts. Barrier 1 and surely has to go forward today. Back in class significantly and Oliver gets the ride. Can go well.
By The Grace: We will see how Girl In Flight goes in previous race and this should give you a bench mark of where this one is at.
Countersnip: 3rd to Prince Harada last prep. Went over to Adelaide first up and ran a good 2nd. Up in distance and can go well.
Gracious Prospect: Maiden only winner finally after 14 starts… but last prep did run some very handy races including a 2nd to Polanski. Don’t dismiss.
Made Of Ice: Very poor last start and previous run couldn’t get a win in easier company. Hard to have.
Gold Cufflinks: Good run from the back. Will need to be ridden in the same manor today but could be a little further forward from B5. Claim helps. Probably outclassed?
I’m Ready For This: Blocked for runs two back and then had bad luck last start as well. Barrier 8 and will be going back. Ready to win but others look better
Astra Delight: Maiden only winner who looks out of depth here.
Comments: Gracious Prospect is the class runner here. First up run showed has come back and can progress onwards from a good barrier.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Gracious Prospect E/W
Caulfield Race 4
The Peak: Continues to run well without threatening. Up to 1400m looks a throw at the stumps from owners.
Disciple: Ran on well last start from the back in a front runner controlled race. Weighted ok again today and barrier 3 is fine. Need the pace on and need no bias.
Rockpecker: This bloke is 10 years old now. Placed 1 from 9 at the track. Never won 2nd up and hard to see that being revsered.
The New Boy: Very brave run last start at Flemington 2nd up. Down 3kg today and meets Chile Express much better at the weights, but he has never won at Caulfield.. he continues to go close but always gets claimed. Damien Oliver could be the difference?
Chile Express: Brave win at Flemington. Equal weight today up in class but based on that run has every chance today.
Academy Jack: A little disappointing last start on the heavy and two back very average at Flemington. Off 51kg comes into this ok if brings best form.. but can’t see it?
Loot ‘N’ Run: Prefers it wetter than this. First up run was poor and never won 2nd up.. but also never missed a place 2nd up. Weighted well once again.
Hinchley Wood: Comes into this with some ok form. Don’t dismiss fully.
Outback Joe: Never won firs tup and needs further.
Nisos: Weighted very well today but does seem to need further than 1400m. Way back and on rail from barrier 2.
Comments: Hard to pass up The New Boy at the weights off that last run.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: The New Boy to win from Chile Express.
Caulfield Race 5
Crucial: Goes well first up and this is easier company than she was going close in last prep. Barrier 6 suits and maps very well. If come back at best hten goes VERY close here.
Lady Of Harrods: Leader bias track last start. Had every chance out the front and couldn’t run on. Only up 0.5kg and down in class today… won 3 from 7 here.. but I think the price is wrong!
Dance For Cash: Surprise winner last start in an on-pace dominated. Down 2kg today and this race isn’t THAT much harder.. but does need to step up another length i’d say.
Counted: Disappointed last start at Flemington but was probably too far back? Down in class again today and that first up run at course was eye catching. Not sure what to make of her.
Flying Hostess: Absolutely flew late in harder company than this last start at MV. Up in distance today and DOWN 2.5kg and DOWN in class. Weighted to win this.
Sensational Report: Placed 4 from 8 at track. Down in class and weighted well again today. Lost a plate last start which made run better. Will be hitting the line hard as always and the extra distance may help. Include in Quaddie and exotics if DEAD track.
Catered: Last three runs have been horrid. Down in class weighted ok but I can’t have here!
Aurora Lights: Has won at distance previously. Goes well first up and has black type already. Don’t dismiss but will be far back and wants further you would suspect.
Belle Ez: Solid run and win last start at MV. Need to improve to win this though.
Oasis Rose: Didn’t measure up last prep and didn’t show TOO much first up in easier company. Weighted ok and needs to find more to win here today.
Winta Chiller: Poor last start and back in class today weighted well. Barrier 1 a massive issue.
Comments: A tough race with about 6 chances. Flying Hostess is weighted to win today and I can’t ignore this price.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 7, 8, 12, 13
Strategy: Flying Hostess to win. Lesser bet on Crucial who maps well.
Caulfield Race 6
Amaethon: I was disappointed by his first up run. Never won 2nd up and 61.5kg after claim. Ouch.
Casacel: Was an eye-catcher last start from the back. 58kg after claim looks fair. Will be very wide on turn!
Like Bolt: Big run two back at MV and then last start down the straight. Barrier 1 today.. do they go forward? I suspect they take a sit on the rails.
She Can Skate: Every chance on a leader bias track last start at course. Never runs a bad race. Back to 1100m looks to suit this prep.
Morant: Disappointing first up but was hampered and suffered lacerations. Don’t dismiss on that run.
Decircles: Had every chance first up in much easier company than this. Never won 2nd up. May be too far back.
Jayconi: Good win first up. Up in class and up 1kg today.. Need a bit of luck to get a good position. Comes into this well.
General Offer: Has the ability to run well but I couldn’t have in this.
Flamberge: The best horse in this race, Flamberge is a potential group winner. Never won at track but has always gone close. Down in class big time first up and off 52kg, just weighted to win. Barrier is an issue but can sit midfield or front.
King Buddy: Better on wet tracks i’d suggest and won’t get it here. Weighted ok though.
Rifleman: Just not the same this prep. First up run was good but gone backwards since.
Infinite Energy: Super disappointing last prep. Won 2 placed 3 from 6 at track. Won 2 placed 1 from 5 first up. Ignore last prep.
Comments: Many a chance but Flamberge looks to be a Group horse and can run very solid sectionals. Weighted to win.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 12, 15
Strategy: Flamberge on top from Like Bolt
Caulfield Race 7
Keep Cool: Oliver takes the ride today which is interesting. Maps to lead which is where the horse is better suited. Can carry weight. Can run well enough.
Constant Force: Beat Keep Cool very easily last start. Up 2.5kg today so giving up 2kg. Does need to improve again to win this. Maps ok.
Unchain My Heart: Better over further but ran well last start at Flemington. Will be too far back.
Extra Zero: Not going well enough on last few runs.
Post D’France: Rates to win again today. Only up 2.5kg today. Up to 2000m and around this distance won 2 from 3 previously. Will continue to improve into this prep. Won 5 of last 7 races.
Flashy Fella: Blocked for runs last start at Ararat but still got there. Barrier 1 means will get every chance. Up 2kg today. Goes well at track. Could have turned a corner for this prep.
Multilateral: Won 3 from last 4 and won very well at Flemington but needed every bit of the straight. Comes into this at unders considering will be so far back in running today.
Me Hungi: Didn’t measure up in class two back. Hard to see measuring up today.
Twilighting: Ran on well enough at Flemington last start. Down in class and down 3kg after claims. Never run this distance before is a massive issue. Need a bit of luck.
Minnie Downs: Weighted to win today off 51kg. Was a massive run at Flemington and extra distance should suit. Can go close.
Electric Fusion: Every chance last start at Moonee Valley but not good enough. Down 6kg today and meets Post DFrance 2kg better off today. Coming from further back today.
Adjuster: Ran poorly last start at Caulfield but was strong at Flemington. Not suited by track.
Umatic: Hard horse ot get ahold of. Last start run was very solid and weighted to go close today.. but not sure how to take the horse.
Comments: Very open race. Very happy to be against the two favourites in Electrion Fusion and Multilateral.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 8, 12, 16
Strategy: Post D’France on top from Flashy Fella. Spec bet on Umatic.
Caulfield Race 8
Isopach: Just ignore last start run on Heavy and look to two and three back. Both very solid runs and both those horses would go close here. Maps well enough.
Angelology: never won first up is a major issue. Last prep couldn’t get a win in Melbourne city class but kept going close.. but was always well enoughed. Barrier 10 and will be joined out the front today off a top weight in the race.. I wouldn’t be confident.
Freshwater Storm: Very disappointing run last start after two very strong runs previous to that. Back to 55.5kg today and i’m going to suggest we forgive last start.
Backstedt: Showed huge improvement last start at Flemington. Up an extra 100m today and up 4kg but down in class. Barrier may see him get further back than wanted but has won 3 from 5 at similar distance. The one to beat?
Chord: Not good enough on recent runs.
New York: Two back run was ‘ok’ but just isn’t going well enough to win this.
London Stripe: Surprised a few with the win last start in much easier company at MV. Weighted poorly.
Evie Rose: Hard horse to catch on her day. Barrier 9 means she will have every chance to lead this today without having to work too hard. Down to 53.5kg today down in class. Weighted to go close.
Leveraction: Continues to run well from the front or taking a sit. Down in class today and from barrier 4 has MANY options. Can go close.
Harvey’s True Heart: Much better weighted than London Stripe in this race but this is a big step up. Can go well but not sure good enough.
Murcielaga: Weighted poorly compared to Evie Rose from last start. Did beat Backstedt this prep though.. but 3kg worse off.
Royal Island: Continues to run ‘well’ this prep but this is a HUGE step up in class. Just not sure he gets there. Will be midfield.
Paige’s Boy: Had every chance last start. Proven not good enough.
Parishon: Very disappointing first up. Never placed 2nd up. Hard to see measuring up.
Aurum Spirit: Not the worst run last start but not the best either. Can’t have.
Heez Notorious: Went close in the Horsham Cup two back then not good enough last start in the Kyneton Cup. Can he go close? Barrier makes it tough.
Comments: Tough race with so many runners.. but you have to go for the best mapped runners with form.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 5, 10, 11
Strategy: Leveraction from Evie Rose
Doomben Race 5
A very classy race but there is one that stands out coming back from a spell.
Discreet ran 1.5L behind Red tracer over 1400m after missing the start last prep in FM-GP2 while the other 4 runs from last 5 were in 3YO, 3 of them at this track. She ran 1st, 1st, 4th (o.5L) and 3rd (1L blocked for runs). Has won first up and loves the course. Most importantly, looks very well weighted against these.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Discreet to win.
Rosehill Race 6
Many a chance in this race. The two progressive types at 54kg look to be out of depth if you ask me. They will run well but I suspect they will find one to pass them.
That horse to me is Strike The Stars. His first up run was solid enough and then his next two runs were certainly eye-catching. His weighted well enough today and maps well from barrier 7 to sit further forward than the last two runs.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Strike The Stars E/W
Rosehill Race 7
Tough race with many a chance. This alone is why I’m happy to take on the favourite.. so who can beat him?
Hidden Warrior has done nothing wrong all prep and also last prep. Won 3 from 5 at track and won 3 from 10 in class. Last start was a solid win and two previous runs huge including the WFA run.
Zaratone always runs a good race. Meets Heart Testa 2kg better off today and 3rd up will be peaking. Barrier 4 so doesn’t have to work hard to get the lead. Loves this course.
Safeguard can be forgiven for last start at Flemington down the straight when simply too far back. Previous four runs were eye catching and runs hve been spaced. Weighted to win this.
Jacquinot Bay is the blow out chance. You know how much he showed us last prep and the prep before.. he may be able to go on with it off a nice weight.
Heart Testa Hasn’t won the last two preps more than 1 race in a row. Just finds a way to go close without winning every so often. I think the pace out front will be too fierce up in class at the weights.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: LAY Heart Testa.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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