Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on 8 February 2014. We have a big day of racing ahead of us and a very early start time of 11am for the first race due to the heat expected. There are quite a few shorters today and it wouldn’t shock me to see 4-5 favourites win on the hard today.. but this is Caulfield racing, so that is also hard to imagine! I like the quaddie today, looks like it could go wide if we get the right results. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 Pakal
Next Best
Caulfield Race 6 Rubick
Best E/W
Caulfield Race 3 Rock Hero
Best Value
Caulfield Race 5 Top Dolly
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 10, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Maules Creek: Shown nothing last prep or this prep. Miracle needed?
Use The Lot: Big first up run after a long time off. Up in class today but weighted well enough again. Will be very hard to beat and loves the track.
Hinchley Wood: Improved last start at MV but up to a distance never tested previously. Only won an easier race this prep. Not the worst here. Could place.
Devonshire Duke: Good win last start at Mornington in much easier company. Weighted well today but won’t get an easy lead. Hard to see.
Aurum Spirit: 1.5kg better off today compared to Devonshire Duke. Can run ok.
Beliveau: Run last start at Morphetville was solid. Low weight today… not the worst in here and could place.
Settlers Way: Missed the start at Moonee Valley and was just a forgive run. Actually ran home ok. Will go forward today and off 52kg back to 2000m is a big chance.
Comments: Hard race to start the day. Settlers Way is a good chance but Use The Lot may just be another class.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Use The Lot to win. Smaller win bet Settlers Way.
Caulfield Race 2
Bit of Hell: Gear Change: No balls today. Yes, he was gelded. Never won over this distance previously. Probably over his true odds today but I think he is better suited over further.
Pakal: You can’t ignore the first up run last prep over course and distance win by 6L on a GOOD track (which he will get today). He was very very very unlucky last start of last prep when held up in the WFA-G1 and should have got there. Won the Cranny Cup very easy previous run. Weighted to win. Best on a GOOD ground.
Chase The Rainbow: Ran further forward last start. Up in class again today and in distance. Galloped on last start. Down 4kg… can run well.
Star Rolling: Ran well enough last start.. but if you rate his runs last prep, he is 4kg worse off today against Pakal. I can’t have!
Bass Strait: Will be ridden cold again today. Suited by a small field. Barrier 1 a MAJOR issue IMO. Goes well at track, but weights an issue to me. Yard suggests he will run a good race but reading between the lines, better over 2000m+.
Anagold: Never far off last prep. Not in this class of race though at this distance.
Comments: I can’t pass up Pakal at the price on a Good track.
Confidence 85% (if the track is good. Down to 75% if dead still)
Strategy: Pakal to win.
Caulfield Race 3
Rock Hero: Ignore last start when lame after race and rate on previous three runs which included a start to finish 6.5L win and a 3YO-LR win in a smart time from the back. Barrier 4 so should position midfield today and looks a big chance.
Thunder Fantasy: Beaten by 2.5L by Rock Hero last prep. Won by 5L in CL1 over 1600m last prep and won 14000m maiden. Showed best over further… I couldn’t have today.
Countersnip: First up win was very solid beating a form line horse and then next start was fine but run after poor. Been off more than a month and back at it down in weight. Much harder task today. Doubt he measures up.
Late Charge: Caught the eye trialing behind Lion of Belfort at Cranbourne. Saw A LOT of merit in the trial and based on last prep he has the ability to go close or win this today. Is better on a rain affected track, but he didn’t have that in the trial and went very well. Big chance.
Bring Something: Non-winner. Ran well behind Divine Calling at MV but showed nothing over further. Probably better over 1400-1600m but hard to have here.
Carillo: Couldn’t win a BM-70 first up. Hard to see this progression!
Accord: Maiden only winner who won a 1600m at MV in only fair time. Looks ok, could run ok.
Pyrrolic: Fairly impressive 2YO win on a slow track at Sandown by 3L. If money comes, watch this colt.
Bardem: I don’t see a great deal in his first prep compared to others in here. Hard to have.
Comments: I have it down to Rock Hero, Late Charge and Pyrrolic. In reality though, I’m only looking between Rock Hero and Late Charge. Rock Hero is the one I want to be with. The form is there and progression while Late Charge is the query on this track.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Rock Hero E/W
Caulfield Race 4
Bound for Earth: Best run last prep was over 1200m first up beating Guelph. Got a bit lucky that day if you ask me and didn’t reproduce a similar run after that. To be fair though, a 3rd in 3F-GP1 isn’t a bad run after that. Talented filly and by far the best horse in this race. If at best, should win.
The Huntress: Bled last start and has to be forgiven for such a good run. Two and three back runs both had merit and even all the 2YO city wins. If back at best, can go close.
Diamond Glow: First up since Blue Diamond last start down the Flemington straight ran a good 5th from the back. Will be out the back again today but will be swooping and hitting the line hard.
Spirits Dance: Big win last start with rider losing whip. Didn’t matter. Sectionals don’t lie. Barrier 1 will need a bit of luck.
Miracle to me: Ignore last run of last prep and rate on two and four back runs. Will be coming hard late.
Marianne: progressed nicely last prep. Not sure she is this good though on the runs. Need to find a length or two at least.
Whistle Baby: Poorly weighted today against Spirts Dance. Couldn’t have.
Shamalia: Flying under the radar? Two wins this prep both impressive enough.. but last start had pace put on by leaders and was close enough and tough enough. Won’t get that today and wide barrier.
Patricia Dawn: Average horse on last prep form who is better at 1200m. Looks outclassed here today but could run in exotics if easy run out front from barrier 2?
Demandz: First up New Zealand runner who landed a few weeks back? No thanks!
Sublime Amazone: Maiden only winner. Showed nothing last start.
Comments: Not highly confident here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Bound For Earth to win. Minor bet The Huntress.
Caulfield Race 5
Eloping: Fairly strong run last start at course and similar distance. Can run well and looks the main threat today.
Golconda: Big win two back at course on a dead track. Further back last start and didn’t run very well after a few months off on a good track. Hard to have.
Earthquake: Classy runner of the race. Won very well first up at Randwick in a very fast time. The obvious one to beat and barrier 5 only helps today.
Lumosty: Surprise 2nd when first up behind Eloping. Can go close to placing again today.
Top Dolly: Missed start first up and ran a very good 2nd behind Oakleigh girl at Flemington in a speedy time. To me, she looks the main danger of the race as long as she jumps well today and is ridden a littel closer to the speed.
Top Sight: Out the back last start but ran on well in only a fair timed race. Hard to be on today but did trial well.
Piacenza: First up run had merit and then first up this prep ran 2nd in an easier race. Hard to have really.
Singularity: Ran ok last prep but didn’t suggest has the progression for this to me.
Mumbai Rock: A lazy $1.5MILLION purchase. Hayes says she is ALOT better than the odds. Fastnet Rocks better as season goes on. Hayes says E/W chance.
Royal Ocean: Trial was ok. Not much more to say really. Price does have a great first up record pushing horses like this into these races.
Snitsnbits: No cash for her and trial wasn’t the best.
Comments: The pace will be on with Earthquake in the race. Now you have to figure out how you want to play it. Top Dolly looks a great E/W chance while Backing her and savering Earthquake isn’t a horrible option either. The same with Earthquake to win outright.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Top Dolly E/W. Saver on Earthquake if you want the insurance.
Caulfield Race 6
Mohave: First up run was brave and got the win in a solid time. Barrier suits today but obviously this is MUCH harder. Can run well.
Geromayo: Ignore last start and rate on two back behind Unencumbered. Looks a serious threat if reproduces best at big odds.
Chivalry: Not sure on him. Couldn’t get the win first up and beat a pack of average horses last start. Need to improve here.
Rubick: Huge win in a very super time first up. The obvious one to beat and priced accordingly. Barrier 2 helps alot, just hope Avdulla doesn’t get caught on the rail!
Nostradamus: Jumped $1.40 fav last start and justified the quote with a 2.3L win down the straight in standard time. Boss keep sthe ride. Barrier an issue. Can win.
Duckworth: Beat an average field first up. BIG step up here. Is he an eclair big bang? Doubt it.
Cornrow: Both runs in career have seen solid with 0.5L and 0.8L defeats. Won’t win today.
Jabali: Fair enough run first up. Price/Oliver combo. Been off a while. Can run well.
Silent Whisper: Not good enough to win this off runs compared to others in this. Happy to bet around.
Malaguerra: Maiden only winner at Cranny in average times. No thanks.
Francesco: Ran ok first up but didn’t show me enough to suggest he can beat all of these. Maps well though.
Berlutti: Didn’t show anywhere near enough first up to suggest win here.
Uncle Keithy: Not going close on first up run even with saddle slipping.
Pure Addiction: Average trial. Not the worst in race.
Searle: Didn’t rate the trial at all. Hard to consider here.
Stratum Star: 100% ignore first up run when Tongue over bit. May have to consider for your F4s.
Comments: 3 key chances here. Rubick the obvious and should be hard to beat. Geromayo looks way over the odds off the run behind Unencumbered two back. Nostradamus went around $1.40 first up for a reason, good horse and well liked today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5
Strategy: Big bet on Rubick. Small E/W on Geromayo.
Caulfield Race 7
Better Than Ready: Two wins last prep and trialed well since. Weighted nice today in a class that he can go well at. Never run at track but no issues. Likes a Good track, barrier suits.. rates very well.
Excelorada: Ran ok last start but this is a huge step up. No thanks.
Lankan Rupee: Very strong win last start at course and 100m extra with a VERY strong time on a dead track. Back to the Good today after a freshen and goes very well first up. Trialled very well. Weighted well and barrier 4, maps well.
First Command: First up run was very average after missing start. Can’t fully dismiss but others look much better here.
Pocket Rockets: Unlucky last start at Flemington not getting the run. Onwards and upwards heading to an Oakleigh plate so suspect will improve today towards that trip. Never won in this class and only 1 placing. Didn’t place only run at track. Maps to be out the back and will be running on.
Lion of Belfort: How good is this colt? Took him on last prep but he proved to be a very good thing and has a big future. 1100m suits, barrier 6 could position slightly further forward here today. Unseen on a Good track since maiden win where did it easy by 4L. Key is the 53kg if you ask me… taking 4kg off a Lankan Rupee.
Iconic: Too far back on a front runner won race first up at Caulfield, Down to 53kg. Meets Lion of Belfort equal at weights for 2.5L defeat last prep. Can run well.
Diamond Oasis: The more I look at the horse, the horse I forgive him for last prep. Lost a plate and jumped awkwardly last prep to run 1.3L 3rd to Lion of Belfort. Next two runs had excuse in the MV race run at a crawl and the next start didn’t seem suited to the straight. Weighted well today and from barrier 3 will position slightly further forward. Word is he is going well and I think he is the value of the race.
Comments: Very classy race this. Lion of Belfort can’t be overlooked today while Diamond Oasis looks the value.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Lion of Belfort to Win. Smaller win bet on Diamond Oasis.
Caulfield Race 8
Foreteller: Flew home first up last prep over this distance and then up 200m next start beat Puissance De Lune with a massive run from the back. Small field today and won’t be far back at all. 5kg better off against Shamus Award today.
Moment of Change: Last win in Group 1 was at course and distance… but had 52.5kg that day not 59kg. 3-wide whole trip last start and just got passed on the line. Will go close again today and maps to be out the front.
Hawkspur: 2nd up last prep won by 3.3L over 1600m at Randwick flying home from the back in a VERY fast run race, so it was really suited. Yard didn’t sound as bullish today. Can win but needs to be at best.
Finishing Card: Great win last start at course and distance in listed company. Up 5kg today makes this too hard.
Shamus Award: Cox Plate winner. First up last prep 1.5L behind Cauthen, then up to 1400m and failed. Ignore that run and look to next start 0.1L 2nd to Divine Calling, then 3rd to Long John. The form reads well.. but up in class significantly today and off 55.5kg compared to 49.5kg in WFA-G1 in the Cox Plate. Looks major unders today.
Eurozone: Showed her best on Slow I thought. 3YO Group races were only average runs and she struck a win over Criterion in GP2. Trial didn’t impress me and even off 55.5kg looks below true odds.
Comments: Has Moment of Change been trained for 1400m? All 6 runs this prep have been for 1200m remember. I’m happy to back my judgement on Foreteller.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7
Strategy: 2 units Foreteller to Place on Betfair (paying 3 places) and 0.75 unit to win.
Caulfield Race 9
Arinosa: Will position out the back with Power Princess today which is a concern if you ask me for both these runners. WFA-G2 win at Randwick was big. Is a class runner here. If they are running on all day then a big chance.
Power Princess: 0.1L WFA-G3 2nd, 2.8L behind Buff and then 1L 3rd to Conservatorium. Back to 1200m today, Weighted very very very well in this class and as long as they are running on, will be very hard to beat.
Koonoomoo: Goes well first up but is hard to map here. Do they go forward or back? Best runs were from back if you ask me and she isn’t good enough to beat the top 2 swooping.
Bonaria: Loves to run well without winning on us. 3 Really good runs last prep. Never won firs tup. Maps far back and needing luck.
Koe: Measured up in all races she was put into, but they weren’t this classy if you ask me. Hard to see first up beating all these on map.
Bippo No Bungus: Better over further is my concern and isn’t better than Power Princess TBH. hard to have in this.
A Time for Julia: Super progressive mare. Went close in all but last start of last prep in equal or better races. Maps well today and at weights if going well will be every chance.
Danestroem: Just forget last start IMo. Judge on previous runs where times are sound. Issue is this is a big step up in class… but maps very well.
Hi Belle: Getting old now but her four runs last prep saw two very close 2nds. Is she a good runner? Not sure.. better on slow/dead. barrier hurts.
Tykook: Improved last start and ran on quite well thanks to a leader bias.. can’t see repeating here.
Angelic Lass: Scored a few decent wins last prep. Much better on a slow track TBH. Won’t set them alight out front.
Spending: Missed start like every run she has. Up in class and poorly weighted. Hard to have.
Comments: Two favourites map out the back is a massive concern. I think Power Princess is the much better chance than Arinosa today. A Time For Julia maps to win.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 10, 12
Strategy: A Time for Julia E/W. Saver Power Princess
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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