Horse Racing Form for Caulfield and Ascot Saturday 7 December 2013

Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield and Ascot. Going to be a long way with the UFC to start the day, followed by Caulfield and then Ascot races.. finished off with EPL! Looking forward to it. Not the highest confidence day today at Caulfield but there are two that stand out.  As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.

Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 Initiator

Next Best
Caulfield Race 3 Danestroem

Best WA Bet
Ascot Race 5 Power Princess

Kingston Town Classic Tip
Ascot Race 7 LuckyGray from Mr Moet

Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Two:  1, 6, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 7, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 9, 12

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield Race 1
Lord of the Sky: Huge win last start at Caulfield off 51.5kg beating home a VERY talented horse in Monkstone. Only up to 54.5kg today after claims and maps to lead or take a sit outside a leader who may kick up from inside. The one to beat clearly. Super trial.
Tankster: She was a little disappointing last start if you ask me. Up in class here and weighted poorly against others in this race I’d say.
Romancingthestone: Last two runs have been poor compared to three previous runs to that. Down to lowest weight all prep of 52.5kg and most importantly back to 1000m where best runs have come. Can run well.
Brotherly Secret: Strong start to finish win firs tup at Geelong at 2. Went to spell and back down 4kg today from a strong enough barrier. May try lead this up and test the fav!
Colors of the Wind: Only a fair win first up. Hard to see the progression but is weighted ok.
Salute To Jude: Last start very disappointing before spell but blame the slow. Won a 2YO at cranny then 3rd to Monkstone. Can improve

Comments: Hard to pass up Lord of the Sky as the top pick. Romanicingthestone could give him a test though.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Lord of the Sky

Caulfield Race 2
A Saucy Snitzel: Disappointed first up and back in class today. Probably goes further forward today where better suited. Unsure how to rate.
Astro Miss: Every chance last start and just not good enough. Suspect finds at least one to pass her.
Mokoro: Missed the start and still a strong enough maiden winner. Oliver takes ride again.
Harquila: Won a maiden very well. Fair bit of talk around about this runner. Barrier looks only issue.
Mother Grace: Good maiden win first up but this is a big jump in class. Looks nice enough.
Star Beauty: Just ignore 2nd run on heavy when missed start.. still ran on ok. Not the worst here don’t dismiss fully.
Miss Promiscuity: Strong enough win in a quality time on slow… paid well also… watch this one ridden for luck.
Devil Woman: Couldn’t win a maiden.. but the 2YO form in harder company did show ‘enough’.

Comments: Tough race with a few progressive types.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Harquila on top from Miss Promiscuity

Caulfield Race 3
Royal Bender: Runs this prep just haven’t been up to winning this today even down in class.
Lady Antebellum: Hard to know what to make of last start run when poor from the back. Just ignore and look to three previous?
You Can Dance: First up run was solid without being a threat. Back around a corner today and goes ok at track generally. Weight only issue for mine.
Queen Delight: Not going well enough off the last four runs.
Aliberani: Has placed at this distance but never won first up or at distance. Needs further.
Mango Mojito: Won 3 of last 5 and last start when close again. Need to do a lot of early work to lead from outside barrier but can get over. A chance.
Serene Tanie: Never won first up. Been off a long time but was a nice horse. Needs further.
Gig: A bit disappointing first up but did not get the best run. Never missed a place at Caulfield.
Miss Middleton: Progressive type who ran very well last start at Flemington in a leader controlled race and ran home well. Barrier hurts and will be ridden for luck.. if the pace is on, comes in well.
Danestroem: First up run was huge and down to 52.5kg today with claim off that 60kg.. gone close here previously.. better over longer but barrier 5 is still suited. Looks the winner.

Comments: Hard to pass up the two selections here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Danestroem on top from Miss Middleton

Caulfield Race 4
Vatuvei: Weighted well but does need further than distance he gets today.
Lord Wimble: 1.5kg worse off today against Lord Durante. Never placed at track is an issue.
Eximius: Doesn’t seem to be going well enough for this if you ask me. Maps for luck.
Auld Burns: Went close last start but behind what? This looks much harder.
Gottino: Up 3kg today which hurts big time. Hard to have at weights.
Ourforeignminister: Two runs this prep not given any reason to back him.
Lord Durante: Will position much further forward today compared to last start 2nd and weighted better than wimble today. Is today the day?
Lord Pyrus: Super disappointing last start. Hard to have.
Goldbya: The one to watch that is hard to match up. Can run well.
Subiaso: Two runs this pre just haven’t shown me enough TBH. Others think goes well but I can’t have sorry.

Comments: Lords should contest this.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lord Durante on top from Lord Wimble

Caulfield Race 5
Vatican: This bloke has been unlucky to be passed the last two runs. Both runs were super. Will take a sit again today and go very close.
Zedi Knight: Not the best runner first up but his last prep was super! At his limits on weights IMO.
Loveyamadly: Won 2 from 3 first up and was super last prep. Never missed a place at track also. Maps well.
Rescue Mission: Super disappointing last prep. If returns to best can go close. Never won first up.
Undeniably: Hasn’t shown us anything all prep.
Sumakaray: Should have won last start. Up in class but down 6kg today. Weighted to go close.
Flash of Doubt: Missed start last start but went back as normal. Great run. Can improve again but never won at track.
Halle Rocks: Not sure she is going well enough off the last two runs for this grade. Have to be against.
Vicario: Goes well first up. Weighted nicely today and does have solid enough form lines. Big chance.

Comments: Four main runners here but 2 that could improve also.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 7, 10
Strategy: Loveyamadly on top from Sumakaray

Caulfield Race 6
Don’t Get Excited: Strong runner who deserves to be favourite today. Big chance on previous runs last prep and if returns at best wins.
Anlon: Up in weight big time today back in class. Ran well on the heavy but couldn’t win. Previous run was ok also. Big step up.
Giresun: Better suited to flightly further.. more like 1400m. Goes ok first up.. barrier hurts.
The Wingman: Goes ok first up but is he past his best? Wants further.
Regalmania: Only goes fairly first up. Not sure city class.
Solsay: Good win last start and weighted well again today. Will get a better run today also but barrier does hurt a little.
Youbolt: Not going well enough.
Horacio: Weighted well today and maps well from barrier.
Magnus Reign: Huge run last start and previous runs also. big chance today down in weight. Barrier helps.
Consentino: Never won first up but never run poorly. Not sure he is city class.
General Offer: Ran poorly last three runs. Can’t have.
Pillar of Creation: Progressed through the grades again last prep. Good type.

Comments: Many chances in this.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two:  1, 6, 9, 12
Strategy: Don’t Get Excited on top from Pillar of Creation.

Caulfield Race 7
LuckyI’mBareFoot: Last two runs not as bad as they seem. Down in class but up to a distance never placed on. Weight hurts also.
Marden: Too far back last start but ran on well. Ridden for luck from B1 today I’d say. Big chance.
Smarty Mac: Two back run was solid but last start found out. Hard to have here.
Canonized: Ran well enough last three runs. Barrier suits and if dosn’t miss start will position further forward.
Mintaro: Not sure what ti make of last two runs. Can’t have today.
Savitar: Just ignore last start and look to two and three back. Position further forward today. Go well.
Initiator: Big win on heavy last start. Two and three back were solid runs also. Weighted to win.
Kenjorwood: Can’t see beating home Initiator today so can’t have.
Republic Lad: Not going well enough this prep for this for mine.
Rock Robster: Hard horse to watch. Hard to see this. Weighted well though.
Beer Garden: Not being set for this. Set for hurdles.

Comments: Initiator clearly on top today form Marden.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 7, 8, 12
Strategy: Initiator E/W

Caulfield Race 8
Zuma Roc: Goes well first up. Much better than this race today but this weight is harsh. Maps well.
My Bentley: Two back run was huge and went close. Barrier 2 maps to be ridden for luck. I think he can go close today.
Galileo Gold: Not good enough off last 10 runs.
Get Pronto: Won 4 of last 5 and loss was 0.2L. Continues to progress through grades. Maps to have a hard time to get the lead is a major issue.
Dance For Cash: Down in class today but up in weight big time. Can run ok.
Definant Angel: Not going well enough this prep off first up run.
Jamaican Warrior: Did’t show me enough first up.
Tallat: Weighed well today if you consider Dance For Cash a big chance. Barrier hurts though.
Medvedev: Form lines are very sound. Back in class significantly today. Maps well.
Quick Snitzel: Progressive type who went well last prep. barrier a little issue but not too much. Never placed first up is an issue.
Unscrupulous: Ran on well on a leader won race. Progressing but not good enough for mine.
Winta Chiller: Continues to run well. Last start was good but not great.

Comments: Tough way to end the day
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 9, 12
Strategy: Medvedev on top from Zuma Roc

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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