Welcome to The Profits horse racing form for Saturday 12 October 2013 at Caulfield and Randwick. The Caulfield Guinea’s are one of the most ‘open’ in recent history with no real ‘stand outs’ like last year if you listen to the experts. Infact, quite a few are saying there are 5 genuine chances. There is one who stands out for mine as the best in the race and as long as the run goes to plan, he simply wins and has been made my Best Bet of the day. There are promotions all over the place today that are worth taking advantage of, especially the $2 for Atlantic Jewel megabet at Sportsbet. As always, I hope your form stacks up with mine. I will be on course live tweeting as always! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 10 Long John
Next Best
Caulfield Race 5 Hazard
Best Value
Caulfield Race 9 Blackie
Lay of the Day
Caulfield Race 6 Super Cool (TO PLACE)
Best Place Bet
Caulfield Race 9 Solzhenitsyn
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 6, 7, 8, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 11, 12, 15, 17
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6
*Betfair are giving a 50% Quaddie Boost at Caulfield today
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Unless you know something, don’t even bother. We have an excellent card on offer. Don’t start the day poorly.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Turn up to the track late.
Caulfield Race 2
Missy Longstocking: Won a VERY easy race first up in only fair fashion. Previous prep won some ok races but nothing as good as first up prep. Is the lay of the day for many experts out there due to weights Maps only fairly here and I can see why others are willing to take on first up in Melbourne.
Montsegur: Didn’t handle the slow last start so can be forgiven for that. Back to 1200m better suited today also. Maps well enough but does need to find another length or so today. Can win.
Bulbula: Keeps running well without winning. Outside barrier hurts a lot today. Doesn’t look good enough on last start in this.
The Huntress: Ran well enough first up to suggest can go close again today. Maps closer than most maps suggest and has ability.
Anatina: Tough win over Chloe in Paris last Saturday. Very strange to see a horse backing up again like this. Maps to sit outside the leader or to take a sit perfectly. Different rider on is always a concern but has the ability so don’t dismiss.
Mineko: Good 2nd prep ending with a maiden win and solid 2nd in similar company. Needs to have found 3 lenghts training on to win this today IMO.
Fare Well: Disappointing last start at MV. Hard to see measuring up.
Cosmic Endeavour: Big wraps on this horse today and I actually cannot understand them. Has been well backed here after running wide last start at MV and running 4th. Oliver goes on and win wouldn’t shock, but not for mine.
Sense of Hite: Very strong maiden win at Bendigo last week and the times were sound. Up to 1200m suits and could actually run a very solid race at big odds today.
Judicial Rock: Won a maiden at big odds and then just didn’t measure up at class. Can’t see here.
Cryptic Lady: Couldn’t win a maiden last start so hard to see winning this.
Comments: A little confused here. I would be backing Chloe in Paris here off the speed maps therefore Anatina is hard to pass up. Sense of Hite at big odds also gets some cash.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Anatina to win from Sense of Hite. Anatina could simply be taken at the E/W.
Caulfield Race 3
Iconic: Strong tempo race on a slow track last start and won well. Continues to show a high amount of ability. Could sit a little further forward today from barrier 6 and go close.
Va Pensiero: Very disappointing last start. Showed enough two and three back to suggest could have gone better last start but seems to be coming to the end of his prep off last two runs. Hard to have here off those runs.
Safeguard: Very strong run putting down a hard pace out front last start at Flemington. Back to Caulfield which suits, can go very close.
Diamond Oasis: Last start at Randwick ran ‘ok’ but that form isn’t the best going around. Happy to be on others here and he seems to be going further back than wanted.
Lion of Belfort: Fair win last start and the stable has a fair thought of the horse. This may be a bit too far of a step up.
Miracles of Life: Probably had every chance last start when just found one too good who led all the way. Back to Caulfield and the stable are confident here. If you were on the last two starts you probably can’t jump off today.
Villa Verde: Showed the form we began to expect in her early 2YO runs. Looked very good first up and is weighted well enough today to go very close. Could be value today.
Go Again: Not going well enough for this.
Pinova: Only won an average maiden first up. Hard to see such progression just yet.
Comments: Safeguard maps to go forward while Villa Verde gets a good position with a bit of luck. Want to be on and around both of these.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Safeguard and Villa Verde to win at equal stakes.
Caulfield Race 4
Broken: Up in class last start and very disappointing all things considered. In harder company on paper again today and needs to improve significantly at the weights.
Grey Monarch: First up this prep. Hasn’t won since 2011. Never won in this class and hasn’t shown anywhere near enough to win this. Never ran at this distance.
Pago Rock: Continues to run well without winning. Last start blocked for runs and should have gone closer. Two back was just 2L behind Puissance De Lune which i would suggest is solid form. Barrier 3 suits and is 4/4 at this distance. Maps purrrrrfectly.
Vatican: Very strong run first up at Moonee Valley when did a lot of work and kicked on for a strong win. Extra 50m not an issue and could be value.
Snitzem: Very disappointing first up with an average ride. Will go more forward today one would expect but would need to find 3 lengths at very least.
Unpretentious: VERY progressive last prep when almost taking out a WFA-LA. Barrier 1 and will be going back as you know. Issue is that from last, will he gets enough of a run? Shorter straight than finds best?
Smackdown: Last two runs havec been all class behind Hosting and Shamal Wind. Maps well enough today but back to 1000m is a query for me. Probably just finds 1 too good again in this tough race.
Anabaa’s Legacy: 4th behind Catins last start and before that was 2.78L off Samaready when ran down. Back to a dry track today and barrier 4, not the worst going around.
Kuroshio: Obviously the one to beat. Won a WFA-G2 with ease last start at Moonee Valley. Up 1kg today and maps to lead it up again. Won’t get easy splits as last time out but is hard to pass.
Comments: Kuroshio the obvious here. Going with Pago Rock who rates to win today if gets a clear run.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: E/W on Pago Rock. Saver on Kuroshio also if you want to be safe.
Caulfield Race 5
Koonoomoo: Very average run first up. Never won at track or 2nd up is a massive issue. Better suited to Flemington and will most likely be peaking for runs there over the carnival.
Aerobatics: Went back to last first up at Rosehill and doesn’t really have THAT much ability to run on. Should try and position further forward today but this looks tough on that run.
Meliora: Out of form. First two runs back in Melbourne were horrible. Couldn’t have here. But there is the fact she has only led on Slow recently. If Good, don’t discount completely.
Shamal Wind: Maps very well from barrier 4 today. Back in class and weighted very well. Can run well on any ground which is a big bonus. Rates to win.
You’re So Good: Had every chance on a only fairly ran race last start at Moonee Valley when mapped perfectly. Maps well again today from barrier 2 but needs to find 2 lengths.
Assertive Eagle: Very disappointing in lesser class first up and needs to find a length or two more today. Maps averagely unless jumps really well.
Jolie Blonde: Done nothing all 3 runs this prep. Hard to be near.
Formidable: Shocked us all last start at MV and led it up. Ran on very well all things considered but surely takes a sit today where better suited. Can go close.
Hazard: Simply ignore firs tup when didn’t handle the slow track. Throw out the vision from your mind. She is a potential superstar, loves the track and loves the distance. The track will be perfect again today and she does need to jump well early to get over into a winable position, but she can win.
Sensational Report: Maps poorly from barrier 9 today. Will be ridden for luck once again and has placed her last two runs in this class. She can place again but can’t see the win. Will most likely start overs again for the place and does look a good bet for that.
Flash of Doubt: Barrier draw certainly hurts today. Will settle out the back. Continues to run well this prep and is weighted well enough.. but needs to get the run today.
Our Miss Jones: Missed start firs tup but wouldn’t have gone forward anyway. Maps poorly today from barrier 1 which is a massive issue. Can run well but hard to have due to barrier.
Counted: Ran fairly last prep but never won in this class or at track and not sure she measures up to these.
Comments: A fair few with chances here. Hazard looks a big price while Shamal Wind is hard to ignore. Sensational Report looks a good place bet while Flash of Doubt should be watched for in-play backers.. you hear the name with excitement.. she should get there.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: A few ways to tackle this. Hazard E/W looks solid. Hazard and Shamal to Wind also looks good while Sensational Report to place has to attract a few $$$ as well.
Caulfield Race 6
Green Moon: SCRATCHED (Wouldn’t have won anyway, 59kg.)
Foreteller: Just too far back last start on a track that probably didn’t suit him. Back onto a surface that suits today and up to a distance he should be peaking at… Foreteller comes into this very well. Unlike last start, there will be speed on through Spacecraft AND he will be VERY close to the leaders with only 5 runners. This reminds me a lot of Ocean Park getting beaten by Alcopop last year in the Spring. Foreteller is a huge chance here. Did beat PDL two back remember.
Spacecraft: Puts on a solid tempo in most his races and today should be no different. Good prize money here for 4th and 5th all things considered and that is probably what he is aiming at!
Massiyn: Very disappointing first up but did get injured. Back here today and has WFA form back in Ireland… but off an injury this looks super hard.
Super Cool: Run last start in Group 1 was poor. Just didn’t let down and even late didn’t show enough. I couldn’t have him here and would be shocked if he won. Looks unders at the price and could be the lay of the day.
Atlantic Jewel: Obviously the one to beat. Last start a tad unlucky to lose but back to dead/good today where unbeaten. The only one I can see passing her could be Foreteller.
Comments: Atlantic Jewel is the obvious choice but with promotions around you can build a bank where you win well on either AJ or Foreteller.
Confidence 85%
Promotions: Sportsbet MEGABET. Atlantic Jewel $2 for Max of $100 (wow). Betstar Double Fixed Odds on any runner max of $50.
Strategy: Confidence based on taking advantage of Promotions. Backing Atlantic Jewel for $100 at Sportsbet and then backing Foreteller $50 at Betstar double fixed odds. Getting the current Betfair/tote price return if AJ wins and having three courses of Lobster and Black Caviar if Foreteller gets up.
Caulfield Race 7
Bello: A little disappointing last start behind Boban but previous runs were solid enough to suggest he can run well here. Outside barrier a MASSIVE issue with so much pace inside him.
It Is Written: Big big big win last start at course and lesser distance. Never run 1400m in life is a big concern. Giving 3kg to Richie’s Vibe today is harsh.
Startsmeup: Ran well enough last start but doesn’t have the progression to improve enough here.
Floria: Very progressive type. Runs very well at this distance. Interesting that Duric gets the ride today. Ran Red Tracer to 0.2L two runs back last prep on a dead track. Maps EVEN better today and should have no excuses. 1.5L behind Speediness 2nd up last prep with 1.3L 2nd first up behind Skyerush.. just couldn’t get the win last prep but ran 2nd to some VERY classy horses. Looks the one to beat here at weights and on a good spell.
British General: Outside barrier hurts big time today but they finally decided to lead with BG at Caulfield and ran it slowly (he isn’t really that type of horse) and was only ran down by the run of the year from Molto Bene who on that run is a Group 1 horse. Big issue is that BG hasn’t ever won at this track but always continues to run well. There isn’t any other CLEAR leader which helps though. Don’t discount him.
Eximius: Last start win on heavy can’t be counted but previous run was ok… didn’t measure up in the BIG races. Weighted well first up here. Respect any money that comes for him.
By The Way: Hasn’t won since 2011 but just continues to place. Will be at the back and run on well if the pace is strong. Never placed at track.
Richie’s Vibe: Quite a few people have this runner as their BEST BET of the weekend. Bocked for runs last start when taken to the back of the field to run on. 3kg better off today vs the horse who won that race when he was 0.2L off them, so can understand why many like him. Seems progressive and you have to respect.
Constant Force: Hasn’t won since late 2012 and previous prep did go close at Flemington but never in the picture around that. Never placed at track and only placed once in class. Need sot have found an extra gear.
Lord Wimble: I like this bloke but he hasn’t ever really measured up in this class in city. His last start run was ok, but he has to find lengths.
Strategy: Tough race with a few runners with a lot of merit. I just can’t trust the General around Caulfield. Back on him at Flemington though.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 6, 7, 8, 10
Comments: Backing Floria to win from Richie’s Vibe
Caulfield Race 8
Sea Moon: Ran closer to his best last start at Flemington when the pace was fairly strong out front which helped. Very hard to write him off today off that run. Should go well.
Simenon: Better suited to further distances than this but should still run well enough. Ran solidly last prep and first up in WFA-G1 class. This is easier class but this is more of a lead up run and isn’t where they want him peaking. Still a big chance at 80% and when you consider from barrier 4 they will ride him for cover.. you suspect he will be 3-4 lengths infront of Sea Moon which is what is needed.
Tanby: Super poor runs the last 3. Hard to see him improving enough here.
Kesampour: Eye-catching run last start behind Mr O’Ceirin. The issue for me is that his best run last start was on a slow track and we are going to get a dead at worst.. most likely upgraded to good. Looks under the odds but surely is a chance.
Moudre: Very disappointing last two runs. Hard to see turning the tables today.
Oasis Bloom: Money has come for her off 53kg today. Maps to sit outside the leader today which should suit more and they can run an easier pace today. I can’t see measuring up on last few runs.
Let’s Make Adeal: Won well in a fairly easy race first up and then straight into WFA-G1 actually ran well. Next start 2L behind Star Rolling over in Adelaide is good form also… but surely she can’t beat ALL of these here.
Verdant: Blocked for runs his last two starts. Weighted to go close today when you consider his previous runs. Extra distance is a good thing. Needs to sit a little further forward today. Good track is ideal.
Goldoni: Poor runs first two this prep and hard to see the improvement.
Comments: Simenon is the stand out here on previous form and speedmapping
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 9
Strategy: E/W Simenon
Caulfield Race 9
Linton: Impressive first up over 1400m when ridden more forward but couldn’t get in really. Last prep won Group 3 over 1600m so step up no issue. Barrier 2 today may mean he gets trapped the barriers and needs luck. Still a big chance.
Solzhenitsyn: #Unlucky last start when blocked for runs. 0.5kg worse off at weights vs Linton today also. He is due a win to be fair… just keeps running well. Maps to get a run 2-3 back on the outside and will have no excuses today if you ask me.
Luckygray: Could position further forward today and really test these. Ran on very well but just couldn’t make up enough ground. In the picture.
December Draw: Jumped poorly and was blocked for runs. Looks like he is actually better ridden on at 8yo instead of leading? Barrier 14 but will try push over to normal position I dare say. I can’t have him, I just can’t.
Ferlax: Needs a HUGE ride today from barrier 17. Could somehow slot in about 3-4 back if gets luck. Last prep suggests better over 1600m but I get the feeling better over a LONGER straight. I’m going to take on today.
Speediness: Slowly Away, Blocked for run on turn and then in straight and only finished 0.5L off them. Was an absolutely barnstorming run. Tough barrier today but if he jumps well they must try and push further forward today to get a good position. A top chance.
Budridguez: Horrible this prep. This horse has gone 5-6L back from last prep. When he clicks, you won’t be on him and neither will I.
Yosei: Not going well enough this prep to threaten.
Lord of Brazil: 5L to make up on Blackie? Weighted well enough but Maps poorly.
Mouro: Weighted poorly against Speediness today. Maps well enough but Oliver off to ride something else today. Best runs have been on Good.
Centennial Park: Absolutely sensational run last start at Rosehill and was very unlucky covering way more ground than the winner who snuck up the rail. I still remember back to my first Derby Day when this bloke got me out in the final race in a photo. I have a soft spot and he continues to run well at 8YO! Has never won at track or distance is a big issue but if the speed is on, you know he will be staying on with them and Newitt is one of the best riding them for luck from barrier 1. #canwin
Trevieres: Big claims around this bloke. Track in perfect condition for him here coming over from France where he won 3 of his last 4 from 1600-2000m in similar class. One of those runs was very recent so you know he is still in top form. Weighted VERY well today and looks value.
Dany The Fox: Found out two back in Listed company and also didn’t have enough tank last start at Caulfield. Poorly weighted today.
Mutual Trust: Too far back last start but up 2kg today hurts. Could run a game race but I couldn’t be around him.
Blackie: H U G E run last start. Just brained them. It was over at the 400m. Down in weight today is a bonus and his run behind Speediness first up was VERY solid also. Sertorius would be going around at $10s if last start wasn’t considered. Blackie dominated there and he has the ability to blow these away if repeats that run. Will need ALOT of luck. Yes, I said Blackie could win a Group 1.
Transporter: Very poor last two runs. Hard to see progression.
Bass Strait: How will he measure up? He maps to need an even better ride today from even further back. He has the ability and a win won’t shock.
Comments: WIDE in Quaddie. A LOT of value around here. Solzhenitsyn maps the best of the main chances here while Blackie with the right run could go very close.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 11, 12, 15, 17
Promotions: Betstar are giving double fixed odds on this race. Topsport are giving money back if you horse runs 2nd or 3rd ($100 max).
Strategy: Solzhenistyn to win and E/W on Blackie. Smaller win bet on Centennial Park.
Caulfield Race 10
Dissident: Ran ‘ok’ last start in WFA-G1 when held on well enough off a fast pace but just wasn’t good enough. Only up 5.5kg here and is suited when you consider how close he was behind Zoustar in the Rose. Key may be that he needs a GOOD track as best runs have come on that surface.
Charlie Boy: Ran on well enough last start but needs to improve a length or two today. Weighted better today. Will get every chance with a solid run from barrier 3. Never placed on Good track so if dead or worse today should improve.
Divine Calling: Good win two back and then backed it up last start with a very solid win from the back of the field. Can go forward or back.. From barrier maps to go midfield or slightly further forward. Also has form around Zoustar from previous prep which has held up. One of the chances.
Long John: The one to beat. His first six runs have been awesome. His first loss was unfortunate when ridden back off a very slow tempo but he was never set for the race. His win next up was arrogant and then last start his run was absolutely super when just too far back. From barrier 1 positions more handy today which is where he CAN run when you look at 2YO runs and he is the best horse in the race. Looks a genuine superstar and is on top here.
Shamus Award: Pushed forward last start from a good barrier and got done on the line. Previous form he did beat home Long John just at MV but then was beaten easily next start. Has ability but does he have enough to win this? Not sure for mine.
Eclair Big Bang: Progressive type who positioned very well in run and got the break at the right time to take the win. 2kg WORSE off today is a BIG issue but has the ability to go close from a perfect barrier draw.
Prince Harada: Gets very far back in his runs and today will be no different. Seems to be calling out for the 1600m and Oliver goes on. The issue is how he can pass some of the more progressive types positioned more forward. Weighted well enough.
Weinholt: On recent runs could quite easily sneak a place but isn’t going to be winning this without a change of tactics that suit the horse.
Late Charge: First two runs this prep only fair. May try do something different today as hasn’t measured up to this class.
El Roca: First up in Melbourne ran very well leading them up at Caulfield before being claimed late. Up 1.5kg today just like Eclair Big Bang is a massive issue and there seems to be enough speed to suggest he will need to have improved on that last start run.
Cluster: Not the worst runner in the race and has shown enough to suggest can place here. Last start made up a load of ground at MV. Getting a long way back today.
Nite Rocker: Good on them getting the horse a run today but won’t measure up.
Great Esteem: Hasn’t shown anywhere near enough this prep to suggest he can test those strong in the market.
Marwood: Failed to throw a punch last start at Caulfield. Not good enough to win this.
Comments: Long John is the best horse in this race and is a potential superstar. Eclair Big Bang and El Roca and 2kg WORSE OFF against him today and he was by far the best run of their last race so very happy to bet around those two. Dissident is the other stand out here off the Rose run. There are so many promos going around to give you a good book on this race if you wish.
Confidence 85%
Promotions: Ladbrokes and Betstar are giving Double Fixed Odds. Sportsbet, Betfair and Topsport are giving you your money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd!
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6
Strategy: Long John to win. Smaller bet Dissident. (Note I already have a small amount on Divine Calling at $100s otherwise I would consider a small bet on DC as well).
Randwick Race 5
Frozen Rope: A huge price today. Won 4 from 6 at distance and 2 from 3 first up. Down to 59.5kg after claims and has the ability.
Tromso: First up ran very well. Improve today and weighted well enough. Could give these a test.
Devised: Needs further really but wouldn’t be shocked to see him run home late and place.
Landing: By far the most talented horse in the race. Injured last run in 2012 when in harder race and $1.40 favourite. This will probably be the only time you ever get this price again for this horse. Rates to win if returns at 80%
That’s A Good Idea: Good win two and three back but last start put on a crazy speed out front (to be fair did the same the previous run). Up in weight hurts big time for mine but is a talented horse.
Cameo: Very strong run two back and then last start went backwards. Back in class today but must find much more today to go close.
Haussmann: Moving through the grades. Good horse who can run a fast speed which will certainly be on with That’s A Good idea in the race. Might not measure up at weights.
Reunite: Hard to see in this.
Mr Edison: Like the horse but not up to this class today.
Bombsquad: Will get back and the speed will be on to suit… but is the horse that progressive?
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: Backing Landing and savering That’s A Good Idea
Randwick Race 6
Criterion: Ran better than expected first up off a hot pace. This looks MUCH harder though.
Fuerza: Hard to see beating the two faovurite home off last two runs.
Vilanova: Last few runs too poor to win this.
Savvy Nature: Sensational last two runs from the back. Moving from Rosehill to Randwick will suit as well and up in distance also. Suspect will be attempting to run down Complacent to the line again.
Complacent: Maps to need a little bit of luck from barrier 1 to get out, but had it last start and ran on very well. Looks to be VERY progressive and the top chance here. Hard to beat.
Drago: Ran well enough last start but found a few too good for him. Hard to see him making up that ground.
Hooked: Couldn’t beat Savvy or Complacent last two runs. No thanks.
Rock Hero: Missed the start last run.. lucky they put on a bit of speed out front and he got a split and snatched the win. Will be heading forward today instead of back if gets a good jump and could be the main danger.
Equator: Lost a plate last start which is a little bit of forgiveness. Meets Rock Hero 5kg better at the weights today which is strong and was 0.3L behind Guelph last prep. Maps to have every chance at weights.
Liberty’s Choice: Good horse but just keeps finding a few too good.
Thunder Fantasy: Ran wide last start but no real excuse. Others look more progressive.
Fast Dragon: Not fast enough on runs in Australia.
Shikra: Not much of a forgive run. Won’t win.
Mountain View: Only won a poor maiden. No thanks.
Comments: I have this down to three runners in Savvy Nature, Complacent and Equator.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Complacent to win with Double Fixed Odds. Bets also on Savvy Nature and Equator.
Randwick Race 8
Sharnee Rose: Super run and win last start at Rosehill. Up to 1600m and should be suited again. There is no Red Tracer in this race and she really does look a good price if can run on again.
Jade Marauder: Sat dead last and put in a bit run last start. Surely sits a little further forward today to go close.
Cathay Lady: Good run last start and from barrier 4 can map in similar position. Don’t discount if improves 2nd up like form lines suggest.
Lilliburlero: beaten two back by a handy runner called BOBAN by 1.5L. Last start ran well but just didn’t have enough. Has the ability.
Gold Epona: BIG run and weighted nicely again today. Many will discount but don’t.
Lucky Lago: Last two runs have been very solid. Probably a bit lucky last start but got the win.
Queenstown: Missed start by 3L and still almost won last start. Down in weights which helps coming into this and can position further forward today.
Comments: A few good horses but two stand out.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Backing Queenstown and Sharnee Rose to win
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
