Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield and Randwick for Saturday 21 September 2013. We have a stacked card today at Caulfield with the Naturalism Stakes and Underwood Stakes which are set to determine some of the cup and plate favourites this Spring. I have also given you a smaller snapshot on each of the races at Randwick today with a bigger view on the large races. As always, I hope your form stakes up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Caulfield Race 8 Mr O’Ceirin
Caulfield Race 5 Catkins
Randwick Race 5 Dissident
Caulfield Race 9 Foreteller
Lay of the Day
Caulfield Race 7 Politeness
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 11, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 8, 11, 12, 13
Sportsbet are giving you a $100 megabet at $2 on Atlantic Jewel (Mobile App or website only).
Ladbrokes are giving you a $50 bet at $2.20 Atlantic Jewel.
Betfair are giving you money back (up to $25) if your runner finishes 2nd or 3rd.
Betstar are giving you double fixed odds on any runners up to $50!
Luxbet are giving you a bonus bet up to $200 (1:1) if your horse wins in the Underwood!
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Goldslick: Last start in this class won at Flemington. First up but really hasn’t had long off so should still be very fit. Won that race with ease. Going back from Barrier 1 and may struggle to get a good run home. Never placed at track is an issue and only won once first up.
Classy Chloe: Measured up in a few races early in the prep but hasn’t been able to measure up with horses in this class. Win wouldn’t shock but better over shorter and may struggle to get in from 12? Does go well on slow.
Bec Said No Credit: Perfect barrier. Has won on slow previously and won well last start in course, distance and grade on dead. Only up 1.5kg and comes into this very well.
Twilighting: Ran well enough first up before outclassed up in grade next start. Back down in grade and could run well.
Rose Pattern: No real form on slow to speak of. Hard to see making up 2.5kg today unless if they run very slow out front which could be possible. Good in-play option.
Minnie Downs: Hard race to catch on her day. Won in similar grade last prep. Never won first up but always goes close. May struggle to get a good spot early. Has a chance.
Zoomania: Not in this on recent runs.
Dartook: Ran well enough last start and goes ok on Slow as well. If brings best can be in the finish.
Mybenz: Got too far back at Mornington on a front-runner today. Forgive run. No real wet track form but when you consider she has never placed on a good and her wins and placings have been on dead, you can expect she will handle the slow going. Up 2kg today but in with every chance.
Comments: Tough race to open the day. It will all come down to how fast they run it out front. I have them going a medium speed which will help the key runners get into it.
Strategy: Bec Said No Credit on top from Mybenz. Godspiel is a spec bet.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m
Go The Knuckle: Meow! Sucked us all in last prep taking our money all seven starts. Ran second three times and kept going close but just didn’t get there. Will be coming from the back… look.. i can’t say he won’t win… but I couldn’t back on his meow factor alone. 1/1 on Slow is an upside.
Undeniably: Can forgive for first up run when jumped poorly, went to the back and was never a chance with post-race poor recovery as well. Slightly easier race today could run well. Only issue is he is best on a Good track.
Canali: Two back forgive run and three back was disappointing. Last start was ‘ok’ and when you consider he is down 4.5kg today… is weighted to go close today. Never won on a non-good track though.
Anise: Blocked for run late and got close to running down Samaready last start. Hasn’t won since 2011 and never run on a rain affected track. Hard to track but if handles goes very close.
Royal Bender: Strong last prep. Maps quite well but last start on Slow was worst of all last prep. Does have 3 wins from 6 on slow which is strange for the last start run. Never won in this class from 8 tries.
Shamal Wind: Wasn’t the same horse last prep but did go close in a few group races. Weighted to win today off 52kg and if Smerdon has her back to her best, then she goes close.
Bocuse: Hasn’t won since 2011. First up for 4 months and previous 2 preps shown nothing. Hard to have.
Cavallo Nero: Last three runs have been VERY strong and has been unlucky not to win any of them. Weighted nicely today and best run this prep was on a slow track which works out well today. Maps well as well. Big chance.
Falcent: Overraced early and was gone by the 200m. Two back run was better but didn’t beat much. Weighted poorly today IMO.
Smackdown: Got back last start and may try do that again today even though speed maps suggest goes into top 4. Good horse but never won on anything but Good. Don’t think he measures up.
Our Nkwazi: Ok horse but not up to winning in this grade.
Comments: Cavallo Nero can handle any surface, but best was seen on slow last few starts. Happy to risk Shamal Wind today on anything but Good. Anise has to get some $$$.
Strategy: Cavallo Nero E/W with a smaller win bet on Anise.
Caulfield Race 3
Iconic: Good 2YO career and this is a weaker race on paper.. but not sure he measures up? We will find out!
Whiskey Allround: Very strong runs last prep in 2YO before last two runs of prep that were worst. Goes well first up and likes it wet.
Clevadude: Very poor last start. Didn’t handle extra 200m. Comes in well and I reckon you can forgive last start. Big chance.
Villa Verde: Shadow of former self last prep but does go very well first up. Big chance.
Il Cavallo: Too far back last start. Will run better today. A chance.
The Bronx: Maiden only winner.
Impulsive Spirit: Maiden only winner. Was an ok trial.
Kievann: Maiden only winner. 2YO form not good enough.
Classy Jack: Won a trial well but this is a huge step up.
Moparee: Finished last prep very strongly. Good start to finish win. Will struggle to get the lead from barrier is only concern. .Also best came on Good.
Mezeray Miss: Went close last start at Flemington. Back to the shorter straight and barrier 4.. maps to win. Goes ok on wet as well.
Menage A Charge: Two strong runs last prep. Comes in well weighted. Handy type. Map only issue unless goes forward (hard to know).
Register: 7L winner at Geelong but can you really take anything out of that race. One to watch either way.
Comments: A lot of speed on up front. 4-5 trying for lead could happen.
Strategy: Mezeray Miss on the E/W. Gets the gun run and will slot in behind those going for the lead on a fast tempo. Will be suited.
Caulfield Race 4
Resistant: Ran very well behind Long John last start. Equal weight down in class today. Loves it wet. Rates to win. 1/1 on track.
Rockford: Poorly weighted today even though blocked a few times last start. Hard to back at weights but could do the job.
Great Esteem: Strong 2nd up run but can he reverse the form around Resistant on a wet track? Doubt it.
Self Sense: Good easy firs tup maiden kill and then strong second up. Would prefer it heavy IMO.
Epic Saga: Average form lines. Hard to have.
Gravitational: Only won a maiden.
Lannister: Took the lead and ran a furious pace. Was a bad run. Boss could try control tempo and go much closer today.. but I don’t see it.
Nomis: Maiden only winner. And only just.
Surging Wave: Got the maiden out of the way at Bendigo… we were on it if you followed twitter… but hard to have in this grade?
Le Mans: Disappointing last start. No excuses can’t have.
Rahal: Maiden only winner. Not in this.
Famechon: Couldn’t even win a maiden.
More Than Ameira: Maiden only winner.
Comments: A lot of unclassy horses here. There seems to be only 4-5 with a shot which is good for us.
Strategy: Resistant is the stand out. Weighted well and likes wet. E/W odds currently but should shorten on the day.
Caulfield Race 5
Hi Belle: Goes ok first up. Has won a fair few races in this class and won 3 from 10 at distance. Better run over a little further though. Maps ok.
Catkins: Last two runs very strong… back down to 1200m today is interesting but I think it is a good idea. Run 2nd to Commanding Jewel was strong. Good form line to go on from. Maps 1 out 1 back if lucky and wins from there. Does go well on wet tracks.
Octavia: 3 wins 3 places from 6 at track. 3/3 from 7 at class and 5/4 from 10 at distance. Just continues to run well and from barrier 1 will run on well. Back to 1200m which is better suited than 1400m which was just too far. Up 2kg today. Can she make up nearly 2 lengths on Catkins today? If the track is slow I don’t think so.
Lake Sententia: Never won first up is an issue but always runs well. Does well on a wet track and last prep runs were very solid. Has run at distance twice and won once! Don’t dismiss.
Jolie Blonde: Maps well but first two runs this prep were horrible. Can’t have.
A Time For Julia: Equal weight today from last prep. Maps VERY well as long as jumps ok. Never run on wet track previously. Has to turn the tables from last two starts on two who beat her.
Hazard: Gun. Scratched during week due to wet track and to have a go here. Won 2 from 3 first up. Won 2 from 2 at track and 2 from 4 at distance. Maps to sit about 3-4 back on the outside which is a nice spot… but Bossy could sneak up inside of A Time For Julia and even get a better position. A big hope today.
Out Miss Jones: Great to see her back. Been off over 370 days since winning as one of our best bets at MV that day. Not the best first up runner but wouldn’t be coming back unfit. Only issue is lack of wet experience.
Flash Of Doubt: Weighted poorly today but does go very well on wet tracks. Still, hard to have.
Anabaa’s Legacy: Not the worst run last start behind Samaready. Stayed on well. Not a wet tracker.
Perfectly Stunning: Never won on slow or heavy and best is on Good tracks. First up form average.
Balaclava Lady: Disappointing last start and weighted poorly. No thanks.
Comments: Very tough race. 3-4 very progressive types including two first up.
Strategy: Backing Catkins to win (you could go E/W) and also Hazard.
Caulfield Race 6
Precedence: Needs further.
Startsmeup: Never won on slow or heavy and only once on dead.. 6 on good. Needs it dry IMO. Good horse though.
Mouro: Unlucky 2nd behind Speediness who has franked the form. Only ever won on Good is the masive concern. Quaddie.
Whisper Downs: Huge run behind Whisper Downs over a distance that doesn’t suit. Worry on slow track but should run well if dead track.
Shoreham: Huge win last start at Flemington. Weighted fairly today I feel. Barrier 2 a slight concern but should position well enough to be there at the end.
British General: Never won at track but loves 1400m. Maps to sit outside the leader.. prefer if they lead. Untested on wet but handles dead line.
Boys On Tour: Not good enough first up but does like it wet.
Future Solution: Average first two starts this prep. Hard to see turn around. Rarely ever misses places on wet though.
Veewap: Not going well enough this prep.
Meliora: Very poor last start and hard to see measuring up this prep.
Brian’s Honour: Been waiting for it to go back to slow or heavy and finally gets a chance today. If Slow, bet with confidence.
Soledad: Never won on dead or good.. all on slow or heavy so will like the ground today. Is he going well enough though?
Out of Cobber: Doesn’t look good enough.
Don’t Get Excited: Win over Bass Strait looks ok form and won 4 in a row. Goes well on any ground. Have to include.
Rhythm To Spare: Just got the win over Lord Durante who wouldn’t be going close in this today. Better over further than this.
Comments: Toughest race of the day. Only bet with confidence depending on the surface we get.
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 11, 14
Strategy: Brian’s Honour if it is slow gets an E/W bet while British General on the E/W if the ground is Dead.
Caulfield Race 7
Montsegur: Slowly away cost her the race last start up in Sydney. Weighted nicely today and from barrier 11 should have no excuses.
Kiss A Rose: Last two runs have been big. Just too far back last start and smaller field helps. Barrier 1 the hurter here. Will she get out?
Lady Lakshmi: Doesn’t look good enough on first up run.
Vivi Veloce: Won a 2YO-G3 which looked only average at best. Hard to see measuring up.
Gregers: Up 3kg today on par with Kiss A Rose. Ran on well but just too far back. They won’t make the same mistake and from barrier 2 should push forward. Big chance.
Miracle To Me: Great win last start at Flemington. Loves it wet with a win two back. Big chance and from barrier 4 will get off the rails.
Marianne: Going forward from barrier 6. Won last two but this is a big step up. Good on wet.
Politeness: Two easy kills in a row.. people suggest she is something very good. The watch of the race.
Se Sauver: Maiden only winner but did go close behind Kiss A Rose two back and meets 1.5kg better off today! Looks value!
Judicial Rock: Hard to see measuring up on that maiden win.
Flamtree of Thika: Not even a maiden winner.
Comments: Doesn’t look to be much speed in this and most chances speed map to the back. Gregers going forward could be the difference.
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 9, 10
Strategy: Gregers to win while Se Sauver is big overs and needs backing also.
Caulfield Race 8
Seville: Last two runs just been average. Up to 2000m suits today so can’t dismiss fully but can’t have.
Tanby: Never placed from 2 starts on slow… goes very well at distance but first up run was poor.
Ibicenco: Got very lucky last start getting a run. All credit to Brad for the ride. Can go close again today but will have to get around many more runners.
Moudre: Very strong run last start first up behind Foreteller and PDL. Have to pass a wall of horses is only issue. Undefeated on slow.
Mr O’Ceirin: Unlucky loser last start. Can bounce back today with another good ride. Bossy goes on and with the only other main speed outside of him, you can expect if he jumps well to go to the front. Hopefully he does get a sit though. You know we rate him a cups chance. He will go very very close today at the weights.
Folding Gear: Very poor last two runs no thanks.
Quintessential: Good first up run. This is MUCH harder class but up to a distance that suits. One to watch for future races.
Tuscan Fire: Very disappointing run last start. Back down in class and down 3kg today. Should map further forward today. Boss going with Mr O over Tuscan doesn’t warm the heart. Needs a little further to find his BEST but this does suit. Goes well on wet also.
Kesampour: Only ran fairly first up. Does have 3 wins from 4 on slow which does appeal.
Pakal: Never won on anything but Good previously. Only backing this horse on Good now.
Tremec: Shown nothing first two runs.
Talent Show: Lost a plate last start so could try forgive for that.. but just didn’t measure up.
Keep Cool: Love this horse but not suited to Slow. Good or Dead then consider as the pace will be furious and he loves a challenge off a strong tempo!
Bit of Hell: Too poor to touch off last two runs.
Sahara Sun: Needing further.
Durnford: Last start only ran ok for mine. Needing a few more runs to find best again.
Comments: Mr O’Ceirin, Tuscan Fire and Moudre the main stand outs. Moudre will be the one to be on if there is a big pace on out front.. but all sources I have say Bossy doesn’t go fast out front on Mr O and we get every chance with Mr O and Tuscan.
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 8, 10
Strategy: Mr O’Ceirin to win. If unsure go the E/W. Even when he loses.. he is never far off. Having a smaller win bet on Tuscan Fire also. If you aren’t already on for Caulfield Cup.. he will go into $25s at worst IMO if he wins this (Mr O).
Caulfield Race 9
Green Moon: Ran home well enough last start and up to 1800m probably suits more than last start. Weighted off 59kg AGAIN today! Should continue the non-winning ways off 59kg.
Manighar: Ran well enough last start but still won’t go close today.
Mr Moet: Blocked for runs twice last start and should have been contesting for the win. Was a very solid run and the extra distance will suit even more today. Don’t be shocked if he goes close to winning this. Has 1 win from 1 on slow which is important for me also.
Foreteller: Great win last start. Better suited off a dead/good track than Slow/heavy.. but still won on all so shouldn’t worry too much. Maps a little further back today and could get blocked is only worry?
Happy Trails: Scratched last week due to needles. Hard to back here today off 1800m. Suited to 1600m or less IMO. Too tough here today.
Ethiopia: Suited by extra distance but not in this class.
Sea Moon: Dismiss first up run where a few things went wrong. Can run well enough to put name down for cups contention.
Puissance De Lune: I believe he will eat up the ground today. Barrier an issue and as long as Bossy doesn’t get caught 3 wide or ride 4 wide from the 800m mark today.. I think he goes close. Get him to the 400m bossy and let go.
Waldpark: Blocked twice last start and then laid in. Can forgive the run if you like. Should have finished closer. Hard to judge.
My Quest For Peace: Not in this class today. Needs a few more runs.
It’s A Dundeel: Blocked for run at 200m but race was all over last start. Was an impressive enough run. Will need to do a lot more work today from barrier 12. How will he handle the wet ground?
Atlantic Jewel: Will she run? Not so sure IMO. Slow 6-7 expected. Doubt it goes heavy. Will they risk her? Obviously the one to beat either way.
Silent Achiever: Didn’t get to show anything last start. Loves it wet and has very solid stats on Slow. Suited by up to 1800m today and is a very sneaky chance at big odds.
Dear Demi: Couldn’t touch with other people’s money today. Giving too much weight to classier horses.
Comments: This race is being called the race of the Spring. Hard to disagree with the lineup. Going to be very tough to pick a winner. I suspect a star or two is scratched by Saturday morning and I will be adjusting my picks. Hard to pass up the AJ megabet from Sportsbet as a saver and bet around on markets. Betstar will gives double odds up to $50 for one of your bets also.
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 8, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Saver bet on Atlantic Jewel. Backing Foreteller 70% Puissance De Lune 30%.
Randwick Race 1
Tough race with quite a few chances.
Hippopus first up should go well and 1600m doesn’t look too short for this classy horse. Twisted Emotions also comes into this well off last start run.
Strategy: Small go on Hippo if anything here.
Randwick Race 2
Several winning chances. Guelph looks unders at the price.
Bound For Earth the stand out… and the price to place looks golden.
Strategy: Bound For Earth to place
Randwick Race 3
Top two are the stands out. I’m All The talk ran very well in Group 3 class last start at course and similar distance. Easier company today and if runs a similar race with some better sectionals out front, very hard to beat.
Van Pensiero was massive last start also and the Dissident form lines are strong.
Strategy: Backing I’m All Talk and Savering Va Pensiero.
Randwick Race 4
Field Marshall ran very well last three starts. Just been massive and last start was impressive. Up 4kg today but no issue. Top chance here.
Angel Bee ran very well last start.. up in class today but could go close?
Shelford’s last few runs are solid enough also.
Strategy: Field Marshall to win
Randwick Race 5
Hard race. Many chances. Can Dissident blow them all away down 6.5kg today? Barrier 4.. take a sit and go? I think he is massive overs right now.
Streama looks a massive chance off last few runs as well.
Hawkspur was super impressive last start so hard to ignore…
Sacred Falls first up ran well enough.. could go one better?
Veyron was disappointing. Gotta get off today.
Sincero LOVES a good track… best over 1600m as well.
Waller believes Shoot Out is back to best…
Strategy: Dissident E/W.
Randwick Race 6
Bello: So close last start. Ran it a crazy speed and always got home. Will most likely get a sit today and go very close.
Malavio: Ran on very well last start and got the better run than Bello. Maps well enough again.
Sizzling: Ran very well last start.. down 2.5kg today brings him right into it.
Belltone: Not going well enough the last few starts.
Tagus: Not going well enough for this today.
Title: Equal weights to Sizzling and beat home last start. Maps EXTREMLY well today.
Al Dhafra: Hard to back in this class today.
Boban: Hard to rate. Should run very well. Weighted nicely. Could go close?
Choice Bro: Maps out the back. Have to make up a lot of ground. Hard to see on first up run.
Ashokan: Weighted better today. Don’t dismiss fully but couldn’t have on top.
Strategy: Title maps to win this today and is weighted nicely. Great odds.
Randwick Race 7
Masked Marvel: Was just there for the run last start. Up to 2000m and should be more suited.. still wanting further.
Moriarty: Up in distance today helps… Ran very well last start. Big chance.
Glencadam Gold: Slowly away and didn’t show enough heart.
Bayrir: Ran poorly. Up in class we will see how the horse goes.. but needs to improve.
Sneak A Peek: Ran on very well last start and could be sneaking the win today.
Pelicano: Disappointing run last start. Hard to see win.
IronStein: Big run last start behind Less Is More. Big step up today but could go close?
Darci Be Good: Last two runs not good enough to win this.
Kingdoms: Very poor first up. Weighted poorly here.
Strategy: Not betting here but Sneak A Peek on the E/W looks ok.
Randwick Race 8
Hay List: Blocked for runs and lost a plate last start. Surely they push ahead today and ride him correctly? Big chance IMO.
Manawanui: Needs further imo.
Mic Mac: Keeps running good races but won’t win this.
Decision Time: Big win last start. Maps a little further back than they want today. May struggle to find a run.
Tiger Tees: Very poor last prep. Good horse if back to best.
Hidden Warrior: Won’t measure up to this class.
Spirit of Boom: Not the best runner first up but still goes ok. Better over further IMO.
Famous Seamus: Can’t see him measuring up to these.
Aeronautical: If returns in best form from first and 2nd up last prep can go close.
Delago Bolt: Hard to see making up this amount of ground today!
Sessions: Meets Decision time 1kg worse off today and harder class. Hard to have for the win.
Welkom Gold: Hard to see running a place.
Strategy: Staying out.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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