Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield Cup day on Saturday 19 October 2013. The day is set to be an absolute cracker with a packed Caulfield Racecourse. The club has suggested only 5000 tickets will be on offer at the gate and with the sun set to shine all day, you will want to get there early. The fields look solid today and there is a high level of confidence on quite a few races. Don’t waste your time on any lower confidence bets today, there are more than enough races to bet into on the card! As always, I hope your form stacks up with mine. I will be on course live tweeting as always! Good luck and happy punting.
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Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 Spurtonic
Next Best
Caulfield Race 4 Rockford
Best Value
Caulfield Race 9 Molto Bene
Best Sydney
Randwick Race 6 IronStein
Lay of the Day
Caulfield Race 9 Peron
Best Place Bet
Caulfield Race 3 Arabian Gold
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 11
Leg Two: 1, 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14
Leg Four: 5, 7, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18
*Betfair are giving a 50% Quaddie Boost at Caulfield today
Promotions
A quick summary of all the key promotion on offer around the bookies.
Topsport
MONEY BACK if your runner finishes 2nd or 3rd in ANY race on 8 race days throughout the Spring Carnival (maximum $100). *Important* You CAN bet more than one horse per race and they will refund more than one horse if you run 2nd and 3rd.
I want to declare that I have no relationship with this bookie. Their deal is so good I approached them during the week but they don’t have an affiliate program so whatever I write is my own thoughts and I make $0 from saying so.
I can’t see you having a losing carnival if you bet with these guys with the offer they have up right now. I bet with them last weekend and had no issues withdrawing my winnings. Once you sign-up you will find a 100% matched $600 freebet offer also.
www.topsport.com.au
Betfair
50% Quaddie Boost (maximum bonus of $250)
Money Back if you run 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Caulfield Cup and the Norman Robinson ($25 max) on their Tote Extra (Best of 5) product.
http://betfair.com.au/promotions
Ladbrokes
Double Fixed Odds on the Caulfield Cup (maximum $50 bet). At time of posting Fawkner $12 enhanced to $24. Hawkspur $5 enhanced to $10. Royal Descent $7 enhanced to $14!
www.ladbrokes.com.au
Betstar
Double Fixed Odds on the Caulfield Cup (maximum $50 bet). Needs to be placed between 1pm and 2pm AEDST
www.betstar.com.au
Sportsbet
Paying out 4 places for the Caulfield Cup for your first three bets on the race. Maximum payout on 4th place payout is $300.
www.sportsbet.com.au
Centrebet
Place a win bet in any race at Caulfield and if your horse runs second to the favourite, Centrebet will refund your bet up to $100.
www.centrebet.com
Sportingbet
50% Bonus on your first Trifecta placed on the Caulfield Cup (Maximum Bonus $500)
www.sportingbet.com.au
Luxbet
Paying out the Bookies Best Price on the Caulfield Cup then adding 10% to it.
www.luxbet.com
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Fare Well: Down in class big time today but up in weight significantly. Much harer than win three back and hard to see off weight.
Mezeray Miss: Ignore two back when on slow and didn’t handle the ground. Last run and two and three back were solid enough to run well today. Barrier is an issue.
Scarlet Billows: Missed start, blocked for runs twice and still won with class last start at Moonee Valley. Maps out the back again but will have every chance again.
Tango’s Daughter: Only fair last start at MV but can certainly improve on that run today back in class. Needs to produce runs shown last prep.
Go Again: Not the worst runner in race but last three runs haven’t been good enough to win this.
Ardelle: Strong enough maiden win but the times were only fair.
Suavito: 3L 3rd to May’s Dream last start seems decent form considering her run on Wednesday. Comes into this well. Barrier only issue against.
Patricia Dawn: First run this prep was very poor. Best run last prep seen on heavy.
Cryptic Lady: Every chance from in-running position last start but didn’t show much even with the checks. No thanks.
Roop All: Sat wide last start when blocked for runs twice in running and zoomed home late with some decent sectionals. Barrier 4 an Rawiller onboard… did get beaten by a handy horse we part own and we knew this was the horse to beat in the race due to big wraps from the Hyland stable. Could be value.
Nicamorae: Hasn’t won a maiden. Ignore last start run.
Comments: Tough race to open the day. A few experts around tipping up Tango’s Daughter.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Scarlett Billows small win bet and Roop All an even smaller E/W bet.
Caulfield Race 2
Paximadia: Great start to finish win first up this prep franking the form from 2YO years. Giving many from that race 2.5kg today.. but could be better suited by the track today. Big chance.
Champollion: Big progression last start after failing the previous two runs of prep. Will be positioned out the back again today and need luck to get a winning run.
I Am Titanium: Will get a similar position in running today as last start when went close to Paximadia. Looks to be better suited by a longer straight with best two runs coming at Flemington. Never won at track from 3 starts and only placed once. Hard to see the improvement even at weights.
Trust In A Gust: Good 2YO form then won two easy races next two starts.. but did it hard last start. This is a big step up. Maps to go forward from barrier 8.
Havana: Nash jumps on. A few gear changes and they are hoping he doesn’t miss the start again today. Last two runs have been super considering how far he has missed it by. Weighted to win today off those two previous runs this prep. Extra distance should bet he sealer.
Hucklebuck: Jumped poorly and then blocked for runs last start when you could suggest he goes close to winning. This is harder but form from that race works out well. Big chance.
Le Mans: Hard to see the form turn around from last start behind a few of these.
Another Effort: Won a maiden only just then ran well on heavy. Can’t see measuring up.
Olivier: Needs more than the weight relief today to pass a few.
Made Of Ice: Not up to these on last start not being able to win a 3YO-64. May position further forward today.
Comments: A race with many a chance. Havana is the stand out. If he jumps well, he should win. If misses start, can still go close.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Havana E/W.
Caulfield Race 3
Lady Lakshmi: Three runs this prep have been ‘good’ but not great. Up in weight today and up in distance. Hard to have.
Arabian Gold: The wetter the better for this horse. Needs it at least dead today to stand a chance. Should have no issues with the up in distance today and this is a step back in class. Went within 1.8L of Guelph on Slow two back and if dead, then is the one to beat from barrier.
Solicit: Two solid wins this prep then last start went to the back at Flemington when jumped badly and ran on well. Prebble off and Boss on suits. A big chance at this distance… just needs to get in from barrier.
Star Fashion: Unlucky not to get the win last start at Flemington losing it in a photo. Absolutely flying and will be in the finish again.
Quest For Peace: Doesn’t seem to be going well enough to win this.
Every Faith: Good enough run last start but won’t be beating all of these home.
Fantome Gris: Huge late run last start but needed to get clear room and didn’t. Oliver taking the ride could provide the run.. but needs to pass a wall.
Up The Ladder: Looks a throw at the stumps. Maiden only winner on wet track.
Brewing: Don’t see this type of upset brewing. Oliver taken another ride.
Akagera: Last start 6L win in very easy company. Much harder here and up in weight. Time not to be snickered at though.
Melaleuca: 6L heavy win. Not good enough for this though.
Refer: Couldn’t win a maiden up in Sydney. Hard to see winning this.
Comments: Arabian Gold maps to win and if the ground is still dead, then she rates to win this.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Arabian Gold to win.
Caulfield Race 4
Polanski: First two runs this prep were uninspiring but last start sat further forward at Flemington and won well. Giving up 1kg today to others but should enjoy the extra distance. Barrier an issue.
Honey Steel’s Gold: Baster been booked and looks the 2nd rate horse of Hayes in the race due to the booking. Ran well two back behind Divine Calling but last start was poor. Weighted ok and win wouldn’t overly shock, but from barrier 1 will be very hard to get a run.
Rockford: Not a horse that should be ridden to lead… yet they did last start and paid the price. Oliver will hopefully run for cover today with Prebble kicked off. Rates a big chance. The key is that he is SO much better weighted today than others he beat two back.
San Diego: Big spruke around for this runner. First up ran 3rd to Long John over 1400m and then last start ran ok behind Divine Calling. Will be getting a little far back from barrier 13 today but has every chance at best.
Epic Saga: 0.1L, 0.2L and 0.5L loses recently. Giving up 4.5kg to Rockford on previous loss but meets Polanski much better at weights. Quality horse but hard to have at weights.
Crime Fighter: Hard to see measuring up here. Maiden winner.
Orion: Ran 2nd two back to Divine Calling which will mean he gets backing today. Blocked for runs last start at Flemington. Was very unlucky. If gets runs today is in with a chance.
Surging Wave: Progressive type who has gone from strength to strength this prep. Poorly weighted against Rockford today but last two runs have been solid enough to consider a chance. Could sit further forward today.
Famechon: Looks to have improvement on last two runs to still come but hard to see breaking maiden status here.
Cadilliac Mountain: Won a maiden that was only fair. Hard to see such improvement from last run.
Bring Something: An eye-catching run last start at Moonee Valley. Made up a lot of ground and could be hitting the line hard.
Lascar: Ran well in 3YO class at Eagle Farm last start. Could go forward or back today from barrier 2. One with a hope.
La Rasoir: Couldn’t win a maiden!
Comments: Rockford is weighted so well today and can lead or take a sit and be there at the finish. Oliver back on and gaining KGs on others the key.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Rockford E/W all day long. Bring Something a saver bet if they have been making up ground from the back.
Caulfield Race 5
Lonhspresso: Very progressive last prep and has been off 7 months. Ended with a big Group 2 win over in Adelaide. Maps well enough today from barrier 5 and the only issue will be the class of this race. Never won first up from 2 tries.
Octavia: Just ignore last start and look to previous runs. Back down to 1100m suits as she doesn’t run out the 1400m but goes so well here with 3 wins 3 places at track. Barrier is a big issue but will be made to go to the front and will be very hard to pass.
Lady Of Harrods: Classy horse who is more than a one trick pony. Won 3 from 5 at track and from barrier 12 I don’t expect them to push too hard for a lead. They will be very happy taking a sit. Never won or placed first up is massive issue though but always runs well.
Avoid Lightning: Down in class today. Blocked for runs first up over in Adelaide. Barrier 6 today and maps to get a good enough run. At best goes close.
Members Joy: Always runs well but never well enough to sneak a win. Could be pace on which could suit. Needs luck as always.
She Can Skate: Can she take up the running from barrier 3? I suspect so but you never know with so much pace in the race. Won 2/2 first up and last start at track over 1100 won in similar class by 4L. If at best, could pull the other runners pants down if trial was as good as it looked.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Last prep very disappointing when lost poorly at Flemington. This is a strong race first up and has won 2/2 first up but will need luck.
Liesele: Strong horse who performed well over in Queensland including a 1.3L Group 3 defeat by Howmuchdoyouloveme. Draw hurts but comes in very well at the weights.
Royal Bender: Weighted to win today down 5kg against others from the race at MV. Value.
Anise: The first up run at Caulfield when blocked for a run and ran within 1.5L of Samaready looks very solid form after her last run. Ran well again last start at course and distance when further forward. Maps much further back today is only issue.
Sumakaray: Big win first up in easier company. Specter who ran second did the same again during the week in a MUCH weaker race than this. Needs luck from barrier but should have her chance.
Spot On Maggie: Many changes of gear should help but hard to see going close on recent runs.
Catered: Ran poorly last start and up in class again. Couldn’t have.
Little Favours: Poor run over 950 at MV. Will enjoy back to 1100m but doesn’t look good enough.
Lady Searcy: Weighted poorly today and should find a few too good.
Holder Sunset: Another up in class big time today and barrier hurts.
Comments: She Can Skate is the stand out while you cannot ignore Anise. Octavia at best could blow them away but looks enough speed out front that she won’t get it her own way today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: She Can Skate to win. Smaller win bet Anise.
Caulfield Race 6
Boban: 3 from 3 this prep. Absolutely huge run last start. If they are running on today then he will have every chance. Top weight is the only issue. May just get too far back today.
Pinwheel: Sensational run first up when just beaten by a better sprinter in WFA-G2. Up in distance today which doesn’t help much if you ask me.. better at 1200m… but maps very well today.
Second Effort: Could get a much better run today from better draw. Boss goes on which is interesting. Need luck to win.
Galah: Good Group win last prep at Eagle Farm and returns well in today. First up run at Flemington was solid enough and back to a corner track is always suited. May sit further forward today. One of the chances.
Sheer Talent: Only fair on return last start. Need to go further forward and may need further distance to find best. Has to find 3L on these.
Mic Mac: Gone backwards big time last few runs and hard to see the win today.
Conservatorium: Not the worst run first up when ran on strongly behind Samaready. Extra distance suits and barrier 2 will ensure a forward run. Hasn’t been this far down on the weights for a long time. Big chance.
Mister Milton: Always runs a soldi race and will again today but other swoopers are better.
Manawanui: Not the old Mana we know and love. Needs further for best really and needs to train on more.
Taxmeifyoucan: Strong enough return first up and weighted well today. Could sneak a place.
Strawberry Boy: The obvious speed in the race. Gear changes a plenty and just not sure what went wrong last start. Much easier race today and if finds best can win. Well. Big chance from barrier.
Out Of Cobber: Stupid odds today really. Ran down Mouro last start in a huge run. Looks progressive all prep and Bowman goes on. If speed on can run well.. but will there be?
Comments: If the rail is working out then Strawberry Boy will be VERY hard to run down. Boban is the obvious swooper while Conservatorium is well weighted and maps very well. Pinwheel the runner with most progression to come 2nd up.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: If betting here I would be building a book of runners. Strawberry Boy biggest bet from Conservatorium with savers on Boban and Pinwheel.
Caulfield Race 7
Platelet: Just continues to impress. Maps perfectly again today up in the weights. But you simply can’t write her off like most experts have. She is value today.
Fat Al: HAS won previous at this trip but last prep did pretty much nothing. Previous prep won over 1600m. Win wouldn’t shock and you HAVE to include in quaddies.. will be going forward. Rail plays well he goes close?
General Truce: Disappointing last start at Cranbourne off the top weight. Down 2.5kg today but needs to produce a signifcantly better run today to threaten.
Ready To Rip: Had a set back this prep which hurts. Quality horse who loves Caulfield. Will be sitting closer to the back today but has won 4 from 6 first up. Weighted well enough.
Spirit of Boom: Better suited with a longer straight? Hasn’t won since 2012 but always goes close. Better weighted today against Platelet but is SOB good enough? I don’t think so. Needs luck from barrier.
Broken: Not going well enough anymore. No thanks.
Pago Rock: Thought we had him home last week! Horses who are backing up recently in big races have had a VERY good strike rate. Down in class and down 1.5kg today. Maps perfectly today and will have EVERy chance.
Griffon: Very disappointing last start. Didn’t run on.
Shamal Wind: Very disappointing run last star tat Caulfield. Weighted much better today but harder company. if produces best can go well.
El Magico: Barrier hurts. Hasn’t been seen in a few months. Won nicely at Flemington but didn’t beat much ending last prep. Goes well enough firs tup but only two loses have been first up runs. Not sure he is good enough for this.
Chiaramonte: Ran Samaready to 1.3L two back then had every chance last start in a fairly slowly ran race and got passed in the final 100m. Still was a nice run. Down 1kg today looks nice enough from barrier 2. Every chance.
Comments: Tough race with quite a few runners. A few stand out.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 11
Strategy: Platelet to win with lesser bet on Chiaramonte. Speculation bet on Fat Al. If building a book on the race then savering Pago Rock is a great option.
Caulfield Race 8
Honorius: Huge win last start at Randwick beating home Masked Marvel. Previous runs form holds up with a close 2nd to Prince Cheri as well. Maps well enough from Barrier 7 and should be very hard to beat.
Hurdy Gurdy Man: Won a much easier race than this with a huge race out country after two poor runs first and second up. Enjoys the distance but is he really going well enough?
Scream Machine: Big run from last up in Sydney and can improve up in distance. Barrier hurts and will need to swoop from way back.
Spurtonic: Rider lost whip last start when 0.5L 4th behind Boban last start at Randwick. Absolutely flying. Up only 1kg today back in class and up to best distance. Huge chance. If the rail is on will be best backed all day I suggest.
Bass Strait: Ran ‘well’ but didn’t impress last start in G1. Down 0.5kg and at best can run well.
Hvasstan: Not going well enough this prep to win but could place.
Extra Zero: Not going well enough.
Durnford: Ignore last start but even so hard to see the progression.
Garud: Good enough to place today. Not enough progression for mine to win. Maps well.
Martelletto: Maiden winner. No.
Comments: Spurtonic is a better horse than all the other runners here. Gets a very easy lead on speed maps and can control the race and just let go when bossy wants. Don’t expect him to stand up if he wins well. Honorius looks the main danger.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5
Strategy: Big win bet on Spurtonic. Smaller on Honorius (or saver).
Caulfield Race 9
Red Tracer: Tough loss first up when just beaten by a horse going better on the day. Previous prep form has worked out very well. Is a better horse on rain affected tracks but even at 90% can go close here if finds best. Maps well enough.
Xanadu: WFA-G1 over King Mufhasa over in NZ last start. Goes very far back today. Does she have the sprint required? Didn’t last prep over here but to be fair was blocked for a run at a critical time. This does look harder than that.
Steps In Time: Seemed to just run them too slowly out the front and got claimed at FLemington. Will be better suited to 1400m and a turning track. Barrier means will have to do a lot of work early and this is a MUCH harder race IMO.
Fire Up Fifi: Near the back last start at Flemington got out and let go and just claimed them within the final 100m. Giving Peron 1kg today but should be in a better position than last start from barrier. Suited by dry track.
Flying Snitzel: Ran well enough firs tup but just not the same horse as last win over Norzita. Needs to find 3+ lengths and luck.
Bennetta: Very impressed with last start run at Rosehill. Issue is how far she gets back today. McDonald not the best rider to be going for the luck required here either.
Meloria: Simply not going well enough this prep.
Hi Belle: Poor run last start. Forgive if you want to. Can go ok here but others look better.
Koonoomoo: Just not going well enough this prep to suggest the win here.
Molto Bene: HUGE HUGE HUGE win last start. Sectionals the best all day. British General came out and won here last start as well. Barrier hurts big time but she has a HUGE turn of foot and will be hitting the line VERY hard. If she is 4L off at the 100m.. she can make it up.
You’re So Good: Not good enough for this.
Peron: TOUGH barrier draw today. Cassidy got her beaten two back and some saw Rawiller cost her last start (I don’t agree). Better weighted against Fifi today but will she get out? Maps to sit mid-field and could get stuck the rails?
Rose Pattern: Weighted ok but doubt she measures up on previous runs. Does map ok though.
Ava’s Delight: Runs haven’t bee that delightful costing us all a lot of money recently. Better swoopers.
Pickabee: progressive but looks outclassed
MyBenz: Didn’t show enough last start. Like the horse but not in this.
Comments: One of the toughest races of the day. Several winning chances. The prices are the major factor here. Meliora set the race up here two back for the swoopers and I suspect it could happen again with Steps In Time wanting to roll along also.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14
Strategy: Molto Bene on the each way.
Caulfield Race 10 – Caulfield Cup
Speedmaps
The most important tool for any race is understanding where each horse is expected to be during the run of the race and on previous data, determining how the race will be run by those out the front. While you would normally only produce one speedmap, but I have come up with three due to the expected leader having missed the start two of it’s last five runs and the high probability that we could see runners sitting three wide for more than half the race.
If you can’t make out the runners, click on the speedmap for a higher resolution version that is easy to read.
You can also view Dominic Bernie’s speedmap here.
1. Manighar 58kg (Barrier 11)
Not much I can say really. Ridden 3 wide in the Turnbull after fast early sectionals. Fell out of it VERY quickly. Top weight here and doesn’t look to be able to handle the pace on in this race today.
Verdict: Won’t Win
2. Dandino 56.5kg (Barrier 19)
Landing in Australia after a successful US St Leger win (2716M) where blocked for runs and still winning easy over a group of horses who wouldn’t measure up here. I saw him first hand at Ascot and wasn’t very impressed. He ran 2nd in a very strange race where the favourite slipped and dropped the jockey and then the clear winner had a heart attack post-race.. so the form lines are very hard to match up. The winner’s form was lengths behind the favourite in the race who dropped the jockey. The horse who ran 3rd who previously beat Dandino is called Universal and wouldn’t be winning the cup. Until the barrier draw, Dandino was the best backed horse of the past month with Craig Williams taking the ride. Don’t be surprised to see money come on the day as most seasonal punters look towards Craig in the big ones. Will settle back in the run and need a lot of luck.
Verdict: Needs luck. Win wouldn’t shock, but runners first up in Australia don’t have a great record in general. Didn’t beat the best of the best back home and kept finding one too good most runs. I expect a few too good here as well.
3. Ethiopia 56.5kg (Barrier 14)
First two runs this prep were sub-par. Hasn’t been seen since 21 Sept. Seems to be poorly weighted and has to improve about 5-6 lengths on last run. 4th in Cox Plate when surprised many and went out the front due to a lack of a front runner in the race. That run last year suggests has the ability if up to it, but haven’t seen it at all this prep. Barrier doesn’t help or hinder.
Verdict: Not going well enough this prep to win. Could put in a battle to run top 6 if at best.
4. Waldpark 56kg (Barrier 8)
Three runs this prep. First run when forward actually ran on well. 2nd up wasn’t so good. Third up was very heavy with alot of weight and ran poorly. Hard to have at the weights.
Verdict: Poorly weighted and I couldn’t see a win in this runner.
5. Glencadam Gold 55.5kg (Barrier 6)
Very close 2nd behind Moriarty and in front of Masked Marvel up in Sydney two back when Berry Riding. Berry stayed up in Sydney for the Turnbull and Duric gave GG an average ride at best. This horse has a 400-500m sprint maximum and he dropped the anchor at 800m which was just stupid. It not only screwed the chances of any front markers, it was just a bad move for the horse he was riding off such a hot early tempo. We saw in the Melbourne Cup last year that the horse off a slow tempo can go close. Was leading to the 200m due to slow enough early sectionals but did do an 800m sprint there as well. If Berry gets the ride and can somehow hold off from letting him go before the 400m, then he is actually in with a chance. The barrier draw was a BIG advantage for GG. If jumps well, won’t have to do too much to actually get the front which should mean Berry won’t have the horse over-racing. If misses the start, then from barrier 6 it is almost impossible to see GG finding a way to be out the front anytime during the race, which will mean a slower tempo in general (horse has no chance if misses the start)
Verdict: If given the perfect ride and a few behind are luckless, can go very close. Should be leading at the 200m if controls the tempo.
6. Mr Moet 55.5kg (Barrier 10)
Three runs this prep have been ‘just ok’ without showing much. Last start really did need to improve more than was shown. Has the ability to run on but looks poorly weighted today compared to others.
Verdict: Not going well enough to win
7. Fawkner 55kg (Barrier 12)
First runs this prep were only fair, but has been ridden more forward recently and is one of my favourites to take out the cup this year. Ran Happy Trails to a whisker in the Emirates last year and guess who won the Turnbull? Sectional wise, he matched it with Puissance De Lune and actually settled in running outside of him. Went 4 wide at the 600m when PDL went rails. Let down with a good run and went close. He and PDL were the only two who put on fast early sectionals and settled closer than midfield that ended up in the top 9 horses in the race. He is weighted ‘ok’ here today and off a slightly slower pace out front with him settling mid-to-front, he doesn’t get passed by the swoopers in this race!
Verdict: Maps very well from barrier 12 today. As long as gets clear running around the turn, looks a top hope to win this no matter the tempo.
8. Jet Away 55kg (Barrier 13)
Last prep won the Golden Mile over 1600m and backed that up with a win over Folding Gear in the Easter Cup G3. Did have a set back so return was slightly delayed (just mucus). Returned in Turnbull and ran a solid 7th. Last 4 sectional splits were all worse than Silent Achiever, yet has been one of the best backed runners. Can see improvement to come 2nd up but I am very concerned at how Jet Away loomed up to win but ‘fell in a hole’ about 100m out and got interference final 20m which cost half a length? I’m not sure Jet beats home Silent on that run but has the potential upside to win.
Verdict: Will need a stronger than average tempo to be run out front. If finds a few lengths improvement on last start and runs out the full 2400m, is in with a shot. Not for me though.
9. Kelinni 55kg (Barrier 1)
Drew the inside barrier for the Cup. Backing up off three previous runs which were sub-par. Nothing like the runs from previous prep. Will need luck to get out from the barrier on the rails and just isn’t going well enough to win this.
Verdict: Not going well enough this prep. Can’t win.
10. Moriarty 55kg (Barrier 18)
Coming into this with some solid enough form. Won the Brisbane Cup last prep over 2400m and this prep beat home Glencadam Gold and Masked Marvel in the Hill Stakes. Last start was unlucky when blocked for runs in The Metrop and probably should have won. Outside barrier hurts, but could sit further forward than mapped and can’t be dismissed from being a chance to win.
Verdict: I think Moriarty is going well enough this prep to threaten, but i’m not sure he can beat home every one of these runners. Place chance.
11. My Quest For Peace 55kg (Barrier 4)
Ran well enough in this last year when hit the front, but was claimed to finish 5th. Between then and now hasn’t finished better than 7th in five runs. First up this prep in the Memsie was far back and didn’t really get given much of a belting to go. Last start in the Underwood not suited by slow track and was far back on a slow pace. We really haven’t seen any cards shown from this runner and there is a little talk around about his chances. Major issue today is a new jockey on board but gets every chance from barrier 4.
Verdict: Unknown. A bit of word around about this one. No form worth following but hasn’t been pushed and barrier means could sneak a very good run.
12. Hawkspur 54.5kg (Barrier 16)
A good horse who won what can be considered some easy group races up in Queensland over 2000-2400m. Returned this prep and didn’t measure up over the 1400m in good company and similar two back in the George Main (did have a handy win in the Chelmsford in much easier company). In the Turnbull sat back and hugged the rail for luck. Was blocked for runs when finishing off super weaving through traffic. He certainly comes in well at the weights and has firmed into outright favourite for good reason. Drifted after barrier draw getting 16. There is word around they could push a little further forward today which I suspect gets Hawkspur caught 3-wide.
Verdict: The obvious favourite. Last start finished strongly coming home. Will settle more forward than last start and look what happened with Long John last weekend being ridden more forward than his previous run. Outside barrier means won’t be blocked for runs on the rail at least. Can win. Looks under the odds though.
13. Julienas 54.5kg (Barrier 15)
Got the nod for the final spot in the race over the international first emergency runner Forgotten Voice. Last prep won the Sky High and then Manion Cup over 2400m (didn’t beat much). This prep has progressed solidly with a strong 3rd in the King Town, winning the C Stephen over 2400m and then lead The Metrop all the way before Seville snuck back on the rail to pinch it in the final 20 metres. Will be going forward and won’t be beaten off easy.
Verdict: Game as any horse. Will be there rounding the turn and will be letting down. Expect a few to pass him though. Could place.
14. Mr O’Ceirin 54.5kg (Barrier 20)
You know he has been my spec from a long way out. $201 was offered and taken. $151 when we put it up as a early get on on the website and is now around $40 after an outside barrier. He won five back VERY well at Moonee Valley with arrogance and then won the Grafton Cup when doing so much work all throughout. After a freshen up went close in the Heatherlie beaten 0.1L on the line after covering significantly more ground than the winner who got very lucky. Last start Bossy took the front and was never getting run down winning with ease. The form last prep behind Folding Gear who ran 7th in the Cup last year and ran Jet Away to 0.3L last prep before that is strong as well. He comes in off a very handy weight and maps nicely. As long as the tempo isn’t too hard out front, he will hit the lead at some point and will be very hard to get past. He can lead this up if required. He was never expected to win the Turnbull and infact when the ground came up good, he was never going to even go close. The early sectionals were too fast.. and Glencadam Gold was given a stupid run out front and dropped the anchor at the 800m mark setting up a bad tempo that was never going to suit any of the runners who had already done so much work early. He can still win but he is calling out for a dead track or wetter.
Verdict: On a dead track off a reasonable tempo, he can show a turn of foot not seen in the previous run. Can win if gets the race run to suit and has luck. Odds to seem about right though.
15. Silent Achiever 54.5kg (Barrier 5)
A little disappointing in the first start of her prep this time around. Didn’t show a great deal in the Memsie and didn’t threaten in the Underwood with a few showing a bit more. Hasn’t seen a weight below 56.5kg for a fair while! Put in some solid late sectionals in the Turnbull but all 4 sectionals from Hawkspur were significantly better. Has shortened after a good barrier draw but needs favours to win.
Verdict: Weighted very well. Is a winning home but has certainly come into a price that is hard to back. Could roll a little further forward from barrier 5 than expected which would help.
16. Royal Descent 54kg (Barrier 3)
Came on very well last prep and goes best over 2000m. Won the AdrianKnox painlessly in a fairly average field and then won the ATC Oaks by 10L on a heavy track. To be fair, the runners behind were not real wet trackers. First up this prep over 1300m ran 2nd to Hidden Kisses, 2nd up ran 0.6L 3rd behind Bello and Malavio in the Tramway before running 2nd to Streama in the George Main. It wasn’t a surprise to see a senior runner like Streama getting the better of Royal Descent. Went forward early in the Turnbull but ended up positioning midfield. Late sectional were significantly worse than Fawkner’s who ran almost identical sectionals first 400m. This certainly can be put down to smashing into Tuscan Fire and not being ridden out. An absolute forgive run but needs a better ride to win. Barrier 3 today is an important factor for this horse.. will need a bit of luck if does sit the rail like we have mapped.. but is weighted very well.
Verdict: Maps and weighted to win with a bit of luck.
17. Tuscan Fire 53.5kg (Barrier 2)
Won the Mornington Cup so gets a run off a very low weight. On previous form could have been going very close but apart from first up over the 1400m, it is hard to say he is at his best. Is suited by the barrier and more importantly the track conditions. You can simply ignore the Turnbull run where he was given 0 chance. Was 3-4 wide the WHOLE trip and got smashed by Mr O’Ceirin/Royal Descent in the straight when letting down (would have finished a lot closer). I think he can be there at the finish if produces career best and gets every favour.
Verdict: Unknown factor. Most expect TF won’t measure up. I think you could see a very bold run.
18. Dear Demi 53kg (Barrier 22)
An eye-catching run behind It’s a Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel over the 1800m. Is proven over the Caulfield Cup distance as well. Runs this prep she has gone forward, but due to outside barrier she will be going back. Her BEST rating runs have been running on. If there is tempo on, she will be coming late. I really do hope they don’t go ALL the way to the back though and sit 3/4 back to give her a big chance. Weighted very well. Important to realise Williams didn’t ride her out last start when he knew she couldn’t win when done with her run 50m out.
Verdict: Massive odds and a blow out chance coming late if there is a strong tempo on.
19. Forgotten Voice 54.5kg (EMERG 1)
Won last start about 60 days ago in Group 3 company beating home some handy horses. Previous to that won well at Ascot. Had a issue with travel sickness which was a set back. Main goal is the Melbourne Cup.
Verdict: Even if gets a run, how many emergency runners have ever won after getting into the field? Set backs and runs that don’t really stack up with the tempo from overseas is hard to suggest a winner here.
20. Sneak A Peek 54kg (EMERG 2)
Won’t get a run.
22. Oasis Bloom 51.5kg (EMERG 3)
Won’t get a run.
The Key Chances
In no particular order, I have moved all of the runners into one of four categories. Just to explain what it all means, just because a runner is in the Medium Chance pile doesn’t necessary mean they aren’t a good bet. It means they need a fair bit of luck and the right circumstances. I know a few who will be on Jet Away and Dandino that will scoff at them being in the same pile as MQFP, Mr O or even GG… but I think they all have chances if the right tempo and circumstances develop and with their racing styles I could never put them in the higher category.
High Chance
Fawkner
Hawkspur
Silent Achiever
Royal Descent
Dear Demi
Medium Chance
Dandino
Glencadam Gold
Jet Away
My Quest For Peace
Julienas
Mr O’Ceirin
Low Chance
Mr Moet
Moriarty
Tuscan Fire
Minimal Chance
Manighar
Ethiopia
Waldpark
Kelinni
Forgotten Voice
Sneak A Peek
Oasis Bloom
Caulfield Cup 2013 Tips
Top Pick – Fawkner
These races are all about getting the right spot in the run and giving your horse the best chance … no matter the tempo ran out front. Solzhenitsyn is a prime example in Group 1 company last week of a horse who speed mapped to win and did it well at the course. With this in mind, Fawkner’s last start run and sectionals were a stand out and he maps perfectly today no matter the tempo.
Best Roughie – Dear Demi
She was under the odds before the barrier draw when shorter than Fawkner around the totes. Drawing the outside barrier she has doubled and these odds are truly wrong. Trainer suggests they will be going back, but on the interview on TVN tonight I sensed they won’t be going ALL the way back and could be bluffing a little with tactics. Either way, she has been very strong the last two starts. The sectionals don’t lie and if she does go back, her best ratings are coming from the back.
Top 10
Fawkner
Royal Descent
Hawkspur
Dear Demi
Glencadam Gold
Jet Away
Silent Achiever
Dandino
Julienas
Mr O’Ceirin
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 7, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18
Well that is it! Please share any feedback with us on Twitter @TheProfitsComAu and remember to come back for more racing previews each main racing day of the Spring Racing carnival! It is important to note that tips MAY change on the day due to how the track is playing and any sudden changes in weather conditions (this is Melbourne remember!). Don’t settle for second best with your odds. Look around for Promotions (there will be plenty, I will mention them in my full card preview tomorrow. Compare the best Caulfield Cup 2013 Odds at Best Odds.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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