Welcome to The Profits form guide for Saturday 25 May. It was good to get back to winning form with the Best Bet and Best Value getting up at nice prices while the Next Best wasn’t suited by a fast tempo. There seem to be a few stand-outs on the cards today at nice odds. As always, I hope you form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Doomben Race 4 Arinosa
Caulfield Race 5 Elite Elle
Caulfield Race 9 Triple Tee
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Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
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Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
I tried to get some decent form lines to go around to pick something here but geez it is a poor race haha. Brainy Boy if anything.. but no confidence here.
Strategy: Pretend this race didn’t exist.
Caulfield Race 2
Eagle Island: Good win first up in Adelaide. Times were sound.
Polanski: Strong win over some average horses last start. Could improve again today.
Solo Saga: Doesn’t seem good enough to win this on past runs.
Throw The King: Not a winner.
Celeritas: Won an average maiden only.
I’m An Outoftowner: Can’t see her placing.
Western Heir: Shown nothing so far.
Prime Motive: Shown nothing.
Strategy: Eagle Island looks the stand out while Polanski rates 2nd and is a saver.
Caulfield Race 3
Finiguerra: Ran well enoguh last start behind Motivado. Needs to find 1.2L off equal weights against Shiny buttons today.
Verdant: Ran on well enough last start as the ‘best of the rest’ to suggest can go well here today. Up 3.5kg hurts a little but is probably looking for the step up in distance. Interesting runner.
Devised: Super run last start behind Scream Machine and just missed out. Amazingly down 1.5kg today after claims. Only issue is barrier 1.
Shiny Buttons: Big run last start in Group 3 class. Previous form suggests he will go close off this weight.
Coup Acclaim: Up in class big time today and only just snuck the win last start. Will go close today, no doubt about that.. but is he classy enough? I’m not sure.
Red Eye Special: Never won at distance from 9 attempts. Never placed from 4 tries at track and never won from 10 at class. Not going well enough.
Readings: Huge run last start behind Kirribilli Gold who then went on to win a big Steeple Chase race. Down to 51kg today (down 4kg) and has gone well previously in this class. Looks overs today.
Monkey Briscoe: Hard to see the progression here on first up run.
Strategy: Readings looks the value runner while Shiny buttons will be hard to hold out getting a gun run in midfield. Devised could very well be declared the ‘unlucky runner and a moral beaten’ by many.
Caulfield Race 4
Scapolo: Ran very well two back at Flemington and then went over to New Zealand and killed an easier company race first up this prep. Looks to be flying.
Liberty Rock: Ran well enough last start behind Khalifa and should be able to improve on that run here. Poorly weighted though you have to feel.
Primitive Man: Absolutely huge run last start. Up 4kg today looks fair.
Quick Snitzel: 1/1 at this distance and finished prep last start very well. Off 56kg has every chance.
Ava’s Delight: Continutes to run well and could steal this.
Flying Skipper: Not going well enough.
King Krovanh: Not up to to this class on last prep.
Royal Rada: Has to find 2-3 lengths more.
Motific: Good win last start at Geelong but this is much harder.
Vicario: Hard to see the progression on last start…. but weighted well enough.
Good Story: Not good enough.
Akavoroun: Maiden winner.
Luck’s A Fortune: Maiden winner.
Ossenhagen: Won very well last start in easy company at Geelong.
Le Bijou: Not a winner.
Strategy: Scapolo looks the one to beat while Quick Snitzel is overs.
Caulfield Race 5
Elite Elle: Huge win last start in what looks a step below class wise. Up 2.5kg after claim. Only two queries are the gate and the apprentice.
Grand Emperor: Not going to measure up here on previous 3 runs.
So Wotif: First up in Australia after some ok runs over in New Zealand. Not sure he will measure up today.
Magnus Reign: Ran well enough last start and down 6.5kg today… can test Elite Elle if jumps well on that run.
Falcent: Very very poor last start all things considered even after jockey dropped whip. Hard to see the win in this class.
Edgewood: Looks a step above this horse today first up. Weighted ok though.
Spending: Very big win at Flemington first up last prep but hasn’t run on a straight course since. Suspect is a don’t back on corners and back on straight?
She Can Skate: Need to do more than skate to improve enough to win this. Has ability but not sure she will be good enough. Speedmaps ok.
Hard Romp: Good run last start but poorly weighted.
Scimitar: Only won a Bendigo maiden.
Streaks Ahead: Couldn’t win a CL1….
Innocent Hero: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Happy Symbol: Not good enough for this.
Strategy: Elite Elle looks value today while Magnus Reign is weighted well enough to go close and is a huge price.
Caulfield Race 6
Shellscape: Hasn’t won or placed since 2010… Previous tow runs suggest not going well enought o do anything today.
Zedi Knight: Runs well at Caulfield and Barrier 6 suits. Will most likely be sitting outside the leader. As long as they don’t push the pace too hard, is a big chance of winning.
Mr Make Believe: Runs well first up and goes ok at track. Last win was in a BM-90 though but is weighted well enough today. Barrier 1 looks suitable.
Winter King: Never won at track and first two runs this prep been poor. No thanks.
Alpha Proxima: Disappointing run last start when had a decent run. Down 2.5kg today but has to find a few lengths for sure. Not the best gate today.
Basil Da Man: Won 4 from 6 first up but that is Adelaide form. Has won once at this track but it is hard to see him getting up in this class today.
Spacecraft: never ran this distance and never won first up… but off 51kg after claims.. you certainly wouldn’t count him out from the Hayes yard.
God’s Window: 1/1 at track but only 1 win first up previously. Won 2 of last three runs last prep with a strong formline 3rd to tokugawa to finish. 52kg today.. I wouldn’t be dismissing.
Corvidae: Hard to see the improvement here.
Umgeton: Good win last start at Caulfield. This is much harder today.
Any Dream Will Do: Hard horse to rate. Loves the wet but also goes well on Good. Off 52kg today looks ok, but probably better over further? Hard to leave out of quaddie though.
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 9, 11, 12
Strategy: Nothing stands out here apart from Zedi Knight. Not sure I can be involved here.
Caulfield Race 7
Serene Star: Huge run last start and almost got the win after a treat of a ride from Beriman. Up 0.5kg today but Elite Elle isn’t in the race today. Loves the track and will go close once again.
Gybe: Didn’t show enough first up to suggest at the weights can win.
Bonnie Mac: Ran ‘well enough’ last two starts but has to find about 1-2 more lengths.
Classy Chloe: Has to find much more than last start here today.
Royal Bender: Didn’t show anything last two runs. No thanks.
Anabaa’s Legacy: Doesn’t look progressive enough.
Vibrant Rouge: Poorly weighted again today. Hard to see the win even after removal of Thornton.
You Can Dance: Poorly weighted today against Serene Star. Can place.
Vain Attraction: Not going well enough this prep. No thanks.
Blue Light: Never won at this class previously and coming over from tassy. Hard to see measuring up.
Matiya’s Pride; Doesn’t look progressive enough or suited to distance.
Spot On Maggie: Weighted well enough but has to find much more today.
Trading Halt: Ran well enough first up but this is much harder. Could still place.
Oh Teary Me: Not good enough.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 7, 14
Strategy: Serene Star is the one to beat. Just goes super at track and distance.
Caulfield Race 8
Keyarna Blue: Big win last start at Morphetville. Up in weight today but from the back will be coming hard.
Mama’s Choice: Weighted to win today off last start. Meets Keyarna 4kg better off today.
Whitten’s Delight: Hard to see the win at weights.
Forever Crazy: Poorly weighted today but should run well.
Come Follow Me: Equal weights today with Forever Crazy. Hard to see the win here.
Maluti: Very poor last start. Not the best weighted on three back behind Coins.
Moreau: Only won a maiden. No thanks.
Nautical: Not the worst weighted today but will find it hard to measure up.
Rosscarbery: Not good enough for this class.
Tyanna: Gone backwards the last few starts. Weighted better today but hard to see the win.
Usurper: Need to show much more than last few starts today.
Cool Attraction: Not good enough for this.
Montoya heights: Not up to this class.
St Issey: Not good enough.
She’s Pretentious: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Quaddie leg three: 2, 4, 8, 13
Strategy: Mama’s Choice looks well suited at the weights today. If having a play here, that is the horse.. but this is super open.
Caulfield Race 9
Under The Eiffel: Ran very well behind Cosmic Causeway last start and should go close once again today down 1.5kg. Maps well enough.
Mr O’Ceirin: Goes well first up and goes ok at this course. Hasn’t raced in a long time and is up 4kg today. Would need to be super first up to win at this distance, probably looking for further.
Pakal: First up international runner. Last win was German Group 3 over 2000m in the middle of 2012. Never won at distance but price runner.
Sahara Sun: Showed nothing last prep when first up in Australia…. Need to show a lot more than that.
Strawberry Boy: Set a very fast time last start and looked to be battling in the straight but kept finding. Up 3.5kg today and giving horses from that race 1.5kg+. Could be exposed here up to 1600m and up in weight today.
Offenders: Ran well enough last start behind Strawberry Boy and meets 1kg better off otday. Need to find much more today though.
Bit Of Hell: Ex-Italian 3-YO winner over 1800m. Looks suited to the distance and should run well.
Good value: Big run first up last start and better suited to extra 200m today. Has to come from further back.
Oregon Spirit: Ran well enough last start but poorly weighted today compared to Under The Eiffel.
Bolton: Ran well enough last start at course. Up in disctance that suits. Could be value.
The New Boy: Good run again last start but is giving up 1.5kg to Under The Eiffel which looks the difference today. Will certainly go all the way to the line though.
The Wingman: Not good enough on recent form.
Westsouthwest: Not going well enough.
Triple Tee: Big win last start. Down 6kg today also. Big price today.
Little Bro: Poorly weighted today.
Quaddie leg four: 1, 5, 6, 7, 16
Strategy: Very keen on Triple Tee to run a ripping race here with no weight on board and a gun run behind Strawberry Boy. Will have the race set up perfectly while Under The Eiffel looks the main danger weighted well enough today. Happy to take Strawberry Boy on due to the price.
Doomben Race 4
A group of non-winners in this race compared to Arinosa. She was super the last two runs, has a freshen up and should be almost impossible to stop today. Will be a spring champion.
Doomben Race 8
The Doomben 10,000 looks to be an open race this year. Buffering could run well again but will he enjoy the extra distance? Never won 4 starts close to this distnace.
Rangirangdoo looks over the odds after the previous two runs.
Rain Affair ran a super race last start all things considered while Your Song absolutely killed them and looks overs.
Epaulette can be forgiven for last start and looks a bit of value off the run behind Black Caviar while Steps In Time won 2 of 3 last prep and will go out the front once again.
Strategy: Backing Your Song and Steps In Time.
Randwick Race 7
An open race but one stands out here for me in Brian’s Honour. Won us a stack of cash last prep including a nice win in harder class on Heavy. Should push forward today and be staying on all race.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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