Welcome to The Profits form guide for 17 May 2014. We have racing featured all over the Country with Caulfield our main focus while Doomben, Scone and Morphetville all get a mention as well. I’m pretty confident today about our Best Bets. We are getting good odds for all of them and I can’t see a donut happening today… I wouldn’t be shocked if we finally had a clean sweep of all the Best and Next Best either. Fingers are crossed… we got the right prices, now to get the right runs! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting… and keep an eye out for our horse Miller Street tomorrow in R6 at Wodonga!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 St Jean
We are getting an amazing price today thanks to St Jean’s fail in the Bool Cup when the horse simply didn’t handle the heavy going. Back to a nice dryer track today, you can’t forget that eye-catching run two back when probably should have won, where Tooleybuc Kid flew past late… and went onto win by a huge margin next start as well… they both gapped Mightiest in third as well. I’m very keen on St Jean at the odds today and will be playing a 5 on the place to 2 on the win ratio.
Interstate Best Bet
Scone Race 7 Under The Louvre
Did I make a believer of you two weeks ago when this gem of a horse bolted in at $7.50 as our Best Bet? This is a horse to follow now and into the future. Guess what, we are getting $10s again today. Similar class (harder level of class though to my eye), and up to Sydney, UTL will have to go around the course a different way which is an issue… but with two days of racing on the surface at Scone… by Race 7 I’m expecting the track to play perfectly for swoopers and this is one of the best going around right now… the price is simply overs once again… does the price come in? I doubt it due to being in Sydney.. but lock in a price at $8s if you can I’d suggest.
Melbourne Next Bet
Caufield Race 7 Tear Gas
Most other weeks this runner would have gone up my best, but St Jean snagged Tear Gas at the post so to speak. Tear Gas’ race is far more open so to speak and that is the negative as well as the barrier concerns. We are of course getting a better price today because of this, and on my speed map, we get a good run 7 out of 10 times. This horse is versatile.. which is a bonus.. if we go forward, that can work, midfield perfect, out the back… no ideal but can still win from there. Weighted to win and looks a future group horse to me.
Interstate Next Bet
Doomben Race 7 Mr O’Ceirin
I love this horse. He became my favourite of the year last year… oh so i’m biased you are about to say? Not at all. I don’t get biased, I simply have my favourites and they have ALWAYS served me well. Dance With Her (go check that horses records), Placement, Glass Harmonium, Galbraith and most recently Happy Trails have all been fairly good to me in the past with my ‘bias’. This horse has gone to the next level this prep as expected. The run for 2nd last start infront of Steama was HUGE… did so much work early to get a position and then showed a huge kick in the straight but was just not fit enough after doing all that early work. Today looks to get an easy time to the front and I can’t see them passing him. Akzar is the key danger in the race, that horse is a STAR.. so I’ll also be on him in the race. Just a heads up, Mr O’Ceirin is $200-1 on Sportsbet and another bookie for the Caulfield Cup futures markets. I’m already on. I asked Betfair to put up the market after I got on and money has traded at $55 and $60 since then… you can still get the $200s on Sportsbet… worth the thought.
Melbourne Best E/W Bet
Caulfield Race 6 Elite Elle
Keep this one simple. Very open race.. could never best bet this girl in this race, but I think her odds are positive and with the right jockey and weight today from the right barrier, she will be there at the finish on a track she loves… she is going well enough to win this.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 7, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 7, 11, 12
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Not sure what I can tell you here. 3 horses we haven’t seen, two who have proven to be handy and the rest I can’t see winning. Save your money.
Strategy: These races should appear on a Sunday as a feature or forced trials should occur.
Caulfield Race 2
Griante: Toog ood last start in similar company and straight up to 59kg today. Rates to run well again today is a key hope.
Native Land: JUST got there last start which is most impressive with the time run in the race that she was able to catch them. Form lines of hers are strong and off 55kg today after claims she is very well weighted today.
Inishowen: Did enough last start but not enough to suggest she wins this. Happy to bet around.
Madam Ganster: Weighted nicely today but has to find 2 lengths that don’t seem to be there at the weights. Can place.
Sometyne: Maiden only winner and the times aren’t exactly impressive. Have to improve SIGNIFICANTLY.
Marli Magic: Shown us nothing all prep and happy to bet around this filly.
Sure You Can: Finally won a maiden but the time was average and the class was even worse. Has to improve alot to even place.
Abichi: 5L winner at Moe says a lot considering didn’t win previous 6 races this prep. Hard to have.
Miss Yearn: Couldn’t win a maiden….
Comments: I think Native Land is the best horse in this race today and weighted the best as well. I do have it between her and Griante on my ratings, but I think betting higher on the place and smaller on the win for Native Land is a better bet long term than backing the two we like.
Strategy: Native Land 2 units to place 1 unit to win.
Caulfield Race 3
Tuscan Fire: Looking for further. First up run was poor at best. Needs more runs.
Spacecraft: Just ignore last start. Ridden at too hot a tempo IMO and fell out of it early. Goes ok at Caulfield and weighted ok off 56kg here. Only issue is alot of speed around him in the race.
Bianmick: Better ridden horse as a leader and better over further.
Cornell: Very very poor first up. Weighted nicely but still hard to have on that first up run in this.
Forty Thirty: Showed 0 heart last start and continued to show nothing this prep. Up in distance helps but back to the dryer tracks no thanks here.
Mighty Like: Won 3 in a row and last start killed an easier field than this by 3 lengths. Equal weight today… looks a very good chance today.
Onpicalo: Pulled their pants down last start at course and distance when allowed to hug the rail. Great ride. Dunn off and Kah on is a concern for me personally. Also back from slow to dead isn’t exactly ideal. Won’t get an easy lead today either with Spacecraft in this. Looks unders to me.
Elusive King: Showed absolutely nothing first up. Much better with less wet ground but doubt he measures up here.
Pin Your Hopes: Simply outridden last start. Battled on well and meets Onpicalo 2kg better off today. Maps well.
Moreau: Disappointing last start. Would have expected to run closer from the run she got.
Comments: Three stand outs. Mighty Like is the progressive runner… but up in this class today even after that 3L win you probably have to take him on at this price. Pin Your Hopes looks the key chance based on previous two runs while Spacecraft is so inconsistant, but at these odds you have to have something on with the class of this race.
Strategy: Pin Your Hopes to win. Smaller bet on SpaceCraft.
Caulfield Race 4
Vain Queen: Went around as one of our Best Bets first up and pulled up with Thumps. Was a decent run all things considered. Returns at best today, goes very close.
Halle Rocks: Just ignore last start. Back down in class today… if runs up to two back run will be hitting the line very hard and go close.
Legcut: How is she $10s here today? Was very strong to the line from a mid-field position last start at Sandown. Up 0.5kg today only for a 1.5L win and was even blocked in straight. Much better weighted today against Halle ROcks as well for two back run.
Lady Of Harrods: Ran well enough first up but needs to show much more today to win. Could find that 1L today 2nd up.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Weighted to run well today. Barrier helps will have every chance. Probably finds 1-2 too good.
Just A Girl: Hard to have on last start run but previous run to that was solid at course and distance on slow. I have to take on today even from barrier.
Bel Price: Ran home nicely first up at Sandown and weighted well today.. but a tough up in class race today and doubt she measures up to these.
The Long Road: Needs further and not shown us anything for a long time.
Pixie Eyes: Flashed home for a very impressive win at big odds last start. Did the same the previous run. Don’t dismiss her again. Weighted well enough… do agree though this is harder race.
Sinhala: Needs further even at weights.
Incrimination: Can’t win BM 65s…. how does it place here?
Unique Storm: Had every chance last start at the Bool but couldn’t get the win. Not at weights for me.
Comments: Wide open race. Does Pixie Eyes make it 3 upsets in 3 races? Looks unders today. Can Prettyhappyaboutit use the barrier to finally get a win this year? Does Lady of harrods improve enough 2nd up? Can Legcut get a forward enough position today from barrier 12? Will Halle Rocks return to two back run form and will Vain Queen just blow these away clear of Thumps today?
Strategy: E/W bets on Legcut & Lady of Harrods.
Caulfield Race 5
Churchill Dancer: Absolutely flying this prep. Last three runs have seen him within 1L of winning or winning each time in this grade. Down to 56.5kg as well after claims today has him in very very well. Most importantly, barrier 4 today means he will be able to get out in time to let loose down the outside. Rates to win.
Lucky Symbol: Just ignore last start and rate on previous two races. Very good win off 60.5kg at Bendigo first up and then a brave 3rd to Minaj 2nd up. Has the ability at his best to go well here… if we get a good track that suits him best and he will threaten.
Ticket To Toorak: Very disappointing not to get the win last start at the Bool. Was still a brave run though. Up in class big time today is a massive issue at the weights. Not fo rme today but expect he will run well.
Lucky Striker: Just ignore his last start run and rate on previous two (even though last start he ran well). Weighted to run well today and is a key threat. Barrier hurts.
Hard Stride: Continues to run well without threatening. Expect the same again today.
Moparee: All runs this prep have been quality but just lacks the will to win. Up in class again today but weighted nicely from barrier 1… Will have no excuses but expect finds at least one too good.
Aragonese: Can’t have on previous form in this today.
Oliver: Got a bit of time for this bloke. Fairly similar weights to a few favourites here today and has ran well behind them. Will be far back but will finish off well.
Bel Rain: Time was only fair in maiden win. Not for me.
Golfing: Ran home nicely last start but this is a big step up in class.
Oh So Assertive: Can’t have in this big a jump from maiden to this. No thanks.
Comments: Three key chances here today in Churchill Dancer, Lucky Symbol and Lucky Striker. This is a hard one to map… if they decide to go forward from the barrier on Lucky Striker (I expect they might), then he is a great price today and could virtually steal the race out the front. Lucky Symbol on his previous three runs will be there at the line and Churchill Dancer will also… I have him on top ratings wise, but it all depends how the race is run.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4
Strategy: Back Churchill Dancer to win. Medium bet on Lucky Striker. Saver Lucky Symbol.
Caulfield Race 6
Broken: Has won first up, Runs well over distance and has won 1 from 12 at course. Nice record in this class… but giving lots of weight to the rest of the field today is a massive issue for mine first up. Prefer in easier races first up.
Vatican: Not sure why but the last two runs has gone around at unders. 59kg here hard to see him winning this.
Elite Elle: Thought her last two runs were good. Down to 52.5kg today and Beriman gets the ride again is important if you ask me from barrier 1. Must be ridden to lead from the 1.
Stratcombe: Shown nothing all prep. Can’t have.
Red Colossus: Not in this class of race, distance or first up!
Don’t Get Excited: Actually ran well last start at the bool when missed the start. Barrier positive today and is a key contender.
Rescue Mission: Hard to have on first up run… but is weighted ok today.
Morant: Just ignore that he went around last start. Back to the scene of hisc lose 3rd to Pago Rock three back, if he produces a run like that today, he will be threatening for a win.
Magnus Reign: This guy is a really classy horse who just finds a few too good. He was made to lead last start on the heavy which he doesn’t do normally, he swoops, that is him.. but he was brave to the line and just got beat. Will appreciate the 54kg today and looks a threat to me.
Academy Jack: Hard to have this guy on his last prep. Does have a close 2nd in WFA-G3 on this track from previous prep to his name though.
Danger Close: Brave win from well back last start at Flemington just beating Fab Fevola and Lord Of The Sky. Barrier 16 hurts today and a new jockey who isn’t a claiming apprentice is strange if you ask me. Will be a long way back and i’m not sure I like him today with all things considered.
Fab Fevola: Last two runs he has been brave both times for a 2nd and 3rd. Meets both Danger and LOTS 1.5kg better off at weights today and comes into this with every chance again. Barrier an issue but he will settle out the front surely. Hard to pass.
Lord of the Sky: I’ll admit, yes, he is a good horse, but he hasn’t proven himself yet at this grade. His last start run was solid and he fought on strongly to the line, but will I take $2.50 today? Hell no. I’d need closer to $4 in this race due to mapping and different tempos that may occur.
Awesome Bro: Horrible last prep. Did go close previous prep to 3Y-Gp3 behind Epaulette. Needs further.
Comments: You have to go wide in the Quaddie here. LOTS is no moral today. Elite Elle is far enough into her prep to suggest she should be staying on strongly at the line and off 52.5kg, she has no excuses. Don’t Get Excited is a forgive job for first up run and has loads of potential to show today. Morant based on two back run goes very close here nad Magnus Reign is a horse I have hgih opinions of, especially if the speed is on. Danger Close has to be included although I hate the mapping of the horse. Fav Fevola is weighted to win, but is a concern at Caulfield and Lord Of The Sky is hard to map but yes we have to respect.
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 7, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16
Strategy: Back Elite Elle to win. Small bet on Fab Fevola. Smaller bet on Morant.
Caulfield Race 7
Happy As Hell: Surprise winner at nice odds two back and then last start ran home well after bein slowly away off top weight. Down to 58kg today and from barrier 2 needs a bit of luck in running. Will hit the line well.
I Am Titanium: Too far back in running last three runs. Barrier 10 doesn’t help get forward today though. Hard to have.
Le Mans: Very disappointing to my eye last start. Couldn’t beat Happy previous run either. Can’t have here.
Tikitour: Up in class and weight again today. Weighted only fairly.. I can’t see him beating these home.
Khutulun: Big run last start and just unlucky not to get the win, was simply out ridden. Mc Neil off Melham on. That change could do the trick… but she does come in poorly weighted today.
Tear Gas: Meets Khutulun 3kg better off today for last start close 2nd when flashed home from simply too far back at Sandown. Will ahve improved since and back to longer distance today suits. Should be able to push forward from barrier and get a more positive position today off the fence. The one to beat by a mile today. Huge value.
Word Of Mouth: Maiden winner who was then beaten by the cat McNulty. Have to see measuring up to this.
Lady Tatia: Ran home well for 2nd last start at Caulfield. Up 1kg today but worth noting better weighted against Tear Gas on last loss to her by 3.3L. Looks an outsider chance.
Pantuo: Hard to see him measuring up to this class on previous runs. Maiden only winner.
Sonntag: Ran ok last start over 1600m at Bendigo but this is a big jump in grade. Can’t have.
Better Call Saul: Can’t see it Sauly by boy!
Square Off: Not in this clas today.
Majestic Jazz: Not here no thanks.
Comments: Four key runners here but one well on top for me. Tear Gas is a horse with huge potential. Does put in a bad run now and then, but based on last start and two back run, she is winning this today and i’m VERY keen at the odds.
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Tear Gas to win. Saver Happy As Hell.
Caulfield Race 8
Correggio: Won two in a row and went 0.1L 2nd four back… so this is a horse who holds good form coming into this race. Down in class today but up in weight. Will be a fair way back today but barrier 4 means he can sneak a little further forward than normal. Looks a big chance.
Base: Didn’t show too much over the 1700m on a wet track last start at the bool but ran close 3rd in Group 2 over 3200m run previous and previous runs from 2200m up all suggested he was going well. Probably still a little short.
Freshwater Storm: Just ignore last start I’d suggest when ridden wide like others. A few finished better than him but he was still ok. Should run well today.
Bells of Troy: Ran home well at big odds last start in Mares grade. Down in class today 2nd up up in distance as well looks a slight hope!
Bec Said No Credit: Failed hard due to slow track surface. Previous run wasn’t much to talk about if you ask me as well. Back in class but is she really flying?
Streaky Fella: Looking for further and hurdles.
Zuma Roc: Wait what? How is this a favourite? What has made it a favourite? 8L and 5.3L in equal class this prep. Back onto dryer ground I know but geez the horse is short in the market!
Alrouz: Only average first two runs this prep and up in class today no thanks for me.
Second King: Ran home better than expected last start at the Bool. Back in distance today and up in class. Can only consider due to weights.
Kirribilli Gold: Should run ok but wants the jumps.
St Jean: Way back in class today and if you rate the run 2nd to Toolebuc Kid two runs back… and then look what Tooleybuc did next start… St Jean looks a serious chance today and way over the correct odds.
Oerter: Ran very well last start beaten by Gotta Take Care in much harder company. Rates well.
Hannaford: Shown nothing last two runs. Hard to have really but simply may just want dryer ground?
Mightiest: Don’t dismiss this guy well in at the weights but has to improve to win today.
Comments: St Jean has form at this track over this distance and the times were very solid. Should have no issues getting out the front today and there shouldn’t be a fierce pace on today. The right ride today, St Jean simply wins this.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 7, 11, 12
Strategy: 5 Units St Jean to place. 2 Units St Jean to win.
Scone Race 7
They obviously didn’t see it last time guys and girls.
Under The Louvre was a sensational winner last start for us at Caulfield with a HUGE run from the back. Equal class today (harder company to be fair), he comes into this race from a perfect barrier 4, meaning he won’t get stuck all the way back today. Down 0.5kg and Hill takes the ride again most importantly, he has gone up way over the correct odds again and we are very keen to reinvest on him.
Strategy: Under The Louvre 2.5 units to place 1.5 units to win.
Scone Race 8
Two stand out here.
Unanimously got an easy win at short odds last start and was just unlucky last start behind Pago Rock and also previous run behind Platelet. Form lines are rock solid.
Ichihara ran it wayyyyy too fast last start and still almost held on.. that was first up. Will be much fitter today. Only issue is the barrier.
Strategy: Small equal stakes on both runners.
Morphetville Race 7
I swear we are not chasing on this bloke who went up as Best Bet in January of 2013 at $5s and jumped at $2.20 but lost! Fast and Free is a talented horse and had an amazing prep two preps back but just had a few issues. Finished last prep with a very solid 3rd in Open class and with nearly 9 months off comes back today in a R-86 race. Has won 2 from 4 first up and enjoys any type of ground. Very happy to be on him here in this grade of race against these runners.
Strategy: Back Fast And Free to win.
Doomben Race 4
Keeping this simple. I think the 1, 2, 4, 5 are all key chances in this race to upset the two favourites. I’m happy to lay them both at such short prices.
Strategy: Lay Srikandi and Miniature.
Doomben Race 5
Bit of a spec bet as I’m not sure how far this horse can go.
Hopfgarten from Barrier 4 today looks backable based on the progression. Will have every chance to put in a very good run today from barrier 4 and with Browne riding, worth backing for mine based on last start.
Strategy: 1 unit Hopfgarten to place. 0.5 units to win.
Doomben Race 7
Moriarty: Maps to be out the back today with Akzar. Much better on dryer tracks but on ratings will find a few too good and most importantly isn’t the best swooper in the race on form. Only thing that could get him home is a miracles rails run from Froggy.
Fat Al: Not a leader yet they continue to race him that way. Better today not on the heavy I’d say and should run ok… but still at the weights I couldn’t have in this class.
Mr O’Ceirin: He was the run of the race last start after jumping fairly and having to work for 400m 3 wide before finally getting a sit behind the leaders due to the pace giving him a gap! Then let go and looked the winner but the fitness told and just got run down. Considering all the work he did last start during the run, he had no right to go so close or to give that kick in the straight. He looks to have improved significantly this prep to me and even though the gate is poor today, he maps to sit outside the leader and go very close. Have a small go on him for the Caulfield Cup with sportsbet at the $201-1… that won’t last.
Akzar: Sensational win for us in the Bool Cup… that was a magical run. This wasn’t exactly the plan but considering how well the horse is going they are kicking on this prep. That always concerns me. Back to the dry today, he will be out the back and hitting the line very hard. The key sprinter of the race.
Junoob: I thought he ran very well last start all things considered. Barrier 3 today, he will sit slightly closer to the speed… but on rating he is up against it today and needs to produce a career best.
Slow Pace: Ran home very well last start in Group 3 class on slow behind SPillway and proved he is a nice horse. The Newcastle form from 3 back has produced quite a few winners actually. Maps only just infront of Akzar and not sure he is as good a swooper especially at the weights.
Leebaz: Only just won and didn’t convince me last start at Hawksbury. Never run this distance previously and is a question up in this class. Goes up from 54kg to 59kg. Barrier 2 so is expected to be leading today… or at worst taking a sit. Rates well, but a big questionmark that he will measure up in this grade for mine at a distance he has never run at.
Streama: Positive barrier last start had her sitting closer than previous run at Randwick. Back to dryer tracks but up to 2000m suits. Will need to do some work early to get a similar spot today and also need a bit of luck that they don’t kick up inside of her. Looks one of the main threats today.
Floria: Sat 1 off the leader in a slowly run race last start at Morphetville. Poorly weighted in this class today, but does map well.
Angel of Mercy: Good horse previously… never won on anything but Good… never this class and won’t measure up.
Comments: Two horses stand out in this race for me. Mr O’Ceirin is hard to ignore. I’m calling it early, he is the improver to come, the Happy Trails of this year. Akzar is the key threat and is flying.
Strategy: 2 units Mr O’Ceirin 1.5 Units Akzar
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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