Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield and Rosehill on 5 July 2014. It has been a up and down last few weeks, so we hope to bounce back with successful day. A very watch and see start to the day at Caulfield with the rain we have had and the rail out 9m. Sandown chopped up early mid-week and i’m expecting the same to happen here. Watch for any leader bias and apply from there. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 Lord of the Sky
Up in weight and grade today but won in brilliant fashion last start. Suitable ground today and a very weak WFA-G3 field with only one main threat on paper. The price is more than correct and is the best of the day.
Interstate Best Bet
Morphetville Race 8 Saturday Affair
Right price again today. Right surface. Right distance. As long as those out the back have had their chance during the previous three races on the card, then Saturday Affair is a genuine chance to blow this field away from the back.
Melbourne Next Bet
Caulfield Race 7 Cheeky Rozay
Very keen on Cheeky Rozay today after she impressed me heavily last start at Sandown. Won with little effort from a position that should have needed a lot of heart to win from. Very well weighted today and is huge value.
Interstate Next Bet
Rosehill Race 7 Dee’N’Gee & Hurrara
Two horse play. Both these horses have proved they measure up in this grade and they are both heavily over their correct odds, while the two favourites are vulnerable at the prices.
Melbourne Best E/W Bet
Caulfield Race 5 De Fine Lago
A lot of question marks about this runner returning from an injury. Could be a staying Group winner by now and last start beat a horse who has gone on and won a Group 2. Reminds me a lot of Tuscan Fire’s first up run. This horse has ability and has previous wins over this distance. Hoping for a slow track which will help find the distance today and with the rail out 9m, expecting it a chop up a bit by race 5 to give this horse every chance to find the speed lane and to win. Rated 1/4 the price available.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 7, 13, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Another 2YO race to start the day.. when will they learn. Put these at 2nd or 3rd race in and they will increase turnover. Anyway, onto the form.
Four first-starters and the others mainly have limited form to speak of.
You know me, I hate to tip in these races as the information we are given to work off is very limited.
If you were asking me for a tip here, it would be Tudor based simply on the first prep runs and the current price today.
Comments: Sit back, relax, watch.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Tudor E/W
Caulfield Race 2
Mezeray Miss: Very talented horse who finished last prep with a win over Minaj at course. Her best has clearly been over further, but off 57kg in this she is right in it.
Thiamandi: Very good horse as proved by previous prep form. First up just ran them too fast over the 1000m on slow but last start on the heavy stakced them up. Way up in grade here and up 5kg is a little harsh, but has the ability.
Cash Is Coming: Good win over Buddy Bundy on the slow last start at Morphetville. Horrible weight today IMO up in this class.
Astro Miss: Good win last start on Heavy. Weighted poorly here.
Whistle Baby: First up after a five month spell. Progressed through the grades with ease last prep and measured up to this class with a close 2nd to Spirits Dance. Weighted nicely today firrst up but only run on slow was first run for a 4th.
Beluga Miss: A different horse this prep but has had two very easy runs in R-58 and R-64 class, but has beaten 10 other runners in both by 2.5L and 3L. Has upside but didn’t like the wet last prep.
Bold Eavey: Every chance last start at Mornington but others were better on the day. Down 4.5kg.
Jemerica: Ran well enough last start for a 4th and down 4.5kg today and well weighted.
Maroon Bay: Ran well enough first up but probably should have won in that class. 2nd up ran ok also down the Flemington straight but no where near a win. Down in class and weighted well today, barrier 1, expect her to try and lead all the way.
Miss Procyon: R-58 and then R-64 winner. Huge step up today.
Judicial Rock: Good run first up close 2nd on Heavy. Measured up last prep 1.3L behind Minaj at MV as well.
Mokoro: Can’t see her bridging the 4L bag from any run this prep.
Just Too Hard: Not Black Cav’s brother? Nope.. Just, not All! Showed enough first prep to suggest can improve and be competitive here.
Millie’s Reef: 51kg with claim but hard to go near after first prep.
Comments: Very open and competitive race to start the day. Mezeray Miss, Thiamandi, Whistle Baby and Maroon Bay are clearly the class runners and the ones to beat on form. Maroon bay has been fairly disappointing this prep and I question how good she is on the slow. Her best has been seen on Good. Whistle Baby’s best has been seen on the Good, but don’t discount simply on that. Being a Magnus filly, she will have come back even better. Thiamandi is way up in class and poorly weighted so I just can’t have here here while Mezeray Miss isn’t at her BEST trip, but is the top rated horse here for a fair way on form.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Small win bet Mezeray Miss. Saver Whistle Baby.
Caulfield Race 3
Self Sense: Pushed back to a mid-week country meeting to score a very easy win on heavy in BM-70 class. Previous run at Sandown was disappointing but showed enough at MV the start prior. Big weight today.
Mista Spot: Last three runs this prep have all had merit including last start win in easier company at Sandown from the back. Will be hitting the line hard again.
Tramcar Johnny: R-64 slow winner two back then didn’t measure up last start. Needs it wet but not sure has this ability.
Leventi: Showed enough last start at Flemington just missing the win… but not sure the surface today is exactly his best rating. Will still run well.
Better Call Saul: Giving weight to Mista Spot today after 3.5L 5th two back. Ran well just missing last start in Adelaide. Much harder here.
Labetenoire: R-58 winner two back.. won’t measure up here even off last run.
Pharrell: Owners would have been very happy with the run last start at Flemington for 3rd. Down to 52.5kg today… may position slightly further forward and will be thankful for the distance increase.. track conditions should suit… big chance 3rd up in Australia.
Rock Of Freedom: Finally broke through for his maiden last start. Won’t be wet enough.
Always Lucky: Wouldn’t win a BM-64 or R-64 last two starts. Much harder today.
Believe Me: Hasn’t come on as well as expected. Thought this guy has alot of potential but even off 52kg today I can’t have.
Riviera Riches: MUCH harder race today with two thirds at Cranny in R-64s. Likes it wet.
Runhardt: Maiden win was sound but didn’t measure up last start in this class and hard to see today.
I’m ABlaze: Couldn’t win a maiden last start.
Sure You Can: Has ability based on last few runs but others preferred.
Two Shillings: Couldn’t win a maiden last start.
Word of Mouth: Strong win last start at Flemington just getting the money. Top weight but was emergency for some reason! Need to improve again today.
Comments: Pharrell looks a really solid E/W bet today. Showed us quite a bit last start at Flemington. Can position better today and off a very low weight back onto a wetter surface should find another length that is required.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Pharrell E/W
Caulfield Race 4
Amovatio: Won two in a row this prep and with a claim will be off 57kg today and is up in class. No reason to suggest he can’t win another and handles any surface.
Charles in Charge: I think you just ignore last start and rate this guy on the first up run where he stuck on well for 2nd. Weighted nicely but certainly does have to improve. Never run on slow but has won on heavy.. so will that help or hinder?
Jessy Belle: Every chance last start and disappointed for a 1L 3rd. With a better run probably could have got there? Been so close all prep with first two runs close 2nds. This is clearly her best track and 1400m is her best distance. She handles the wet going and barrier 5 no excuses today. Right jockey on to get the job done.
Allez Eagle: Gone early last start down the Flemington straight. First up run on Slow at MV from the back was good and from barrier 13 expect him to get far back. Best runs shown on wet. Expect improvement today.
Baligari: Continues to run nicely and got home very well last start in much easier company in Adelaide. Rated VERY poorly against Allez Eagle today.
King of Manners: Ignore last start and rate on previous 3YO win at MV. Back to a more suitable distance today and the wetter the better. 52kg and looks a blowout chance.
Best Suggestion: Two back run 2nd to Aeratus in BM-64 class has proven to be a strong form line. Won next start by 2.3L on heavy at Bendigo. Has to be respected. Did run 1.5L 9th to Churchill Dancer at Flemington down the straight first up also.
Running Bull: Second up run in much easier company was great. Best a handy runner or two. Big step up here though. Has the ability.
So Does He: Improved run last start better positioned in running at MV and back onto dead surface. Can run well today but has to improve again. Barrier hurts.
Yesterday’s Songs: 5.5L maiden winner. Time was sound but nothing special.
Barkly Boy: Ran well enough last start in R-64 class but couldn’t win. Ignore tow back run. Not for me.
Deny AllCharges: Big step up here. Not sure he is this class.
Comments: Three key runners all over the correct odds here worth playing. I would note Amovatio is also slight value on my ratings and I wouldn’t put you off betting the horse E/W, but I prefer to play the much higher value three runners here. Jessy Belle back to her right distance, with the right rider, from a good barrier and on the right surface will be very hard to beat today. King of Manners is weighted to win and will be coming from the back on a surface that suits and runners should be able to run on from. Best Suggestion is an under the radar runner here. Ran 1.5L 9th in 3YO company first up, has improved onwards and the 3rd to Aeratus is huge form to bring into this. The wetter the better.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Medium sized bet on Jessy Belle and Best Suggestion. Smaller sized bet on King of Manners.
Caulfield Race 5
Kindergarden Kid: WFA-G3 winner in 2012 over in the USA… then ran 4.8L in WFA-G1.. since then 10.5L, 16.5L and 13.5L off winning over in US and then France. Hasn’t run in over a year and this looks a tough task at this distance.
Under The Eiffel: Very disappointing run first up over 1200m. Showed nothing last prep either. Hard to have.
De Fine Lago: Very talented horse who suffered a tendon injury a year ago. Won his last two races in this grade over 600m and 1200m more distance including a win over Outback Joe who has since won the Group 2 Adelaide Cup. Last prep was by far his best prep to date and he had just turned into a proper race-horse. Trainer isn’t overly bullish today, but he has won at this distance in the past and placed 4 from 7 times at the distance range. The key is a very dead to slow track today and a bias suiting those positioned midfield to back. Barrier 4 and 56kg, the price is 100% wrong today and is the best value of any race today.
Don’t Get Excited: Last start at Flemington was gone a LONG way out. Have to forgive that run and rate on two back run if we are to be honest about the horse. Shown his best runs on wetter tracks so should run well today.
Pillar of Creation: Very good horse. Hardly ever runs a bad race. All three runs this prep have been solid including the win last start at MV. Goes well on any surface and this distance is suitable 4th run into prep. Barrier suits… go close.
Clang and Bang: Coming off an injury that kept him out, his best runs are late into preps and in easier company than this over further.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Up in Sydney had two runs and went close on both occasions but still somehow missed places. Weighted well again here today and gets a suitable track. Will be going close again from the front. .
Alpha Proxima: Disappointed last start at MV when well beaten. Ran well two back but this is a step above him this prep.
Midnight Glory: Very poor first up. Position further forward today. Needs further. Not sure this class.
Supreme Warrior: Good win two back at Sandown and then last start ran well enough behind Big Buddie. Can improve again today and run well at weights.
Academy Jack: Ran well last 0.2L 3rd to Pillar of Creation. Goes well on wet tracks also. Can run a nice race.
Chile Express: Continues to run well but not win. Very hard horse to catch. Goes close on wet tracks but continues to find a few too good. Run well from barrier.
Digitalism: Finally showing his best runs based on last two runs but has to improve again today.
Free of Doubt: First up run didn’t show enough to win this.
First Course: Can’t have on last prep. Needs further.
Tycoon Rob: Not in this class.
Momentary: Not in this class, huge step up.
Comments: About 8-9 horses who could actually pop up and win this. I couldn’t talk you out of backing Pillar of Creation or Don’t Get Excited on the E/W, but I have to back the massive overs in this race in De Fine Lago. $101 to win and $26 to place is available at time of writing and I have the horse rated closer to $26/$7 and that is being conservative.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12
Strategy: De Fine Lago 3 units to place 1 unit to win.
Caulfield Race 6
Ready to Rip: Continues to run well this prep without going close. Group 3 and Group 1 5th placing and then last start 2.3L 7th in Listed company down the Flemington straight. Back to 1100m which is a very suitable distance, he finds a track inside his ratings range. Hasn’t won for over a year is the issue. Needs to find a length or two.
Riziz: Very disappointing last start at Flemington for no real reason at all. Have to simply ignore that run and rate on previous runs including 1.3L 3rd in Group 1 class two back on a slow track. Big chance.
Morant: Close but no prize two back at Moonee Valley when almost stole the win. Last start not good enough and this is MUCH harder. Track rating helps but outclassed here.
Le Bonsir: Finds his best runs on Good tracks and hasn’t won off of one, but last start and even three and four back on slow and dead were good runs. Was blocked for a run last start but has to find 2 lengths more than that run. Horse is best ridden out the front.. not sure they try it today though.
Mr Make Believe: Won first up last prep but then nothing after that. Was a weak race compared to this. Won 4 from 5 on heavy so the wetter the better for this guy. Not sure he is good enough for this though.
African Pulse: Good horse on his day but since being struck down with injury trouble hasn’t been able to show his best. First up last prep was good…. bossy on in a big negative.
Good Value: Huge price today considering he is a horse who beat Galah at Flemington and then ran a close 2nd to Strawberry Boy last prep. Showed his best over further is the issue.
Lord of the Sky: Up in class today and also up 6.5kg is the worry. This is the weakest WFA-G3 race you will find for a while and he has been out of 3YO class all prep and measuring up. Last start was really impressive considering the speed on out front and he just kept sticking on never looking gone at any stage during the race. Loves the track and most importantly ground shouldn’t be an issue. Great bet at the price.
Johannapine: Not going to go close on what we saw first up.
Comments: It’s rare i’m willing to back a 3YO (nearly 4) in a WFA-G3 but Lord of the Sky is the real deal and this is a fairly average bunch. Riziz looks the main threat, but at the prices, I’m very happy to best bet this bloke.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 8
Strategy: Lord of the Sky to win.
Caulfield Race 7
Octavia: Her last 9 runs or so have not been her best work, but two of her last three have shown me that she is getting back to her best form. 57kg today after claims, expect her to jump and try and lead all the way. Track condition no issue. Big chance.
Classy Chloe: Even at the weights, based on last few runs not going well enough this prep to back today.
Oriental Ruby: Didn’t show much first up at MV. Looking for further. Prefer dryer.
Hai Lil: Talented mare who was very disappointing first up. Goes well at distance and track rating suits. Never won at track a concern. Barrier is good.
Koe: Very poor last start in Adelaide. Previous run had merit. Much harder here.
Bonne Nuit: Has won previous once at this distance from 8 tries. Never won first up. The wetter the better for her.
Danish Whiskey: Talented mare who has had her fair share of problems. Won a F&M 1400m race three back and then last prep only 1 run in easier company a close 2nd at course over 1440m. Barrier hurts and this could be a touch short a distance. Loves it wet.
Bloomingdale Miss: Snuck a win last prep. Average run first up. Needs to find a length or two at least today on ratings and weights.
Oamaru Rose: Impressive win two back at Mornington but no form previous and last start backing up was poor. Even off 51kg hard to have.
Nadeem Lass: Hard horse to catch. Has every chance last start in much easier company but couldn’t get the win. Has to improve to win this.
Esprit’s Choice: Continues to run 2nd this prep. The wetter the better for her. Not sure good enough here.
Ace of Angels: Not gone close either starts this prep. No thanks.
Balaclava Lady: Mare with ability, ignore last start and rate on first up run when a nice run 2nd. Previous prep runs were all solid and if they decide to ride forward today then she is every chance.
Dashing Shadow: Wasn’t won in more than two years. Gone close a few times but no main prize for 2nd place. 52kg today, probably goes out the front or sits forward. May look the winner but will get claimed when it counts.
Cheeky Rozay: Found another gear the last two runs with a close 2nd at Sandown two back and then a big win last start. It was super impressive and I said on Twitter I’m very keen to be backing her wherever she goes. Well we get her in Saturday grade off 51kg from barrier 5. Ideal!
Never Give An Inch: Maiden only winner.
Delta Whiskey: Couldn’t win a R-58 last start…
Comments: Very confident on Cheeky Rozay backing up here today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 7, 13, 15
Strategy: Cheeky Rozay E/W
Caulfield Race 8
Gotta Take Care: Goes very well at this distance and is a crazy price again today when you consider his last two runs on the flat have been so good. Don’t dismiss.
Voila Ici: Weighted nicely today and last two runs have been VERY good. Can continue the form today. Big chance.
Indikator: Group 3 winner on heavy over in NZ at similar distance. 10YO now but still has a win or two in him. Big odds.
Fulgur: Too far back last start at MV. Average ride at best. First two runs this prep solid. Has to find a length or two today on my ratings.
Whisper Downs: Good enough run last start from simply too far back. off 53kg today, you have to give him a big chance. Rates well.
Lightenuff: Got away with cheap sectionals out front and got the win. Won’t get that today with the runners here. Giving 2kg to Voila Ici today.
Angelology: Very poor first up run. More suitable distance today but has to find alot more. Not for mine this early into prep.
Diamonds at Noon: Ran home nicely last start at MV. Weighted poorly today off 54kg but will be finishing strongly.
Shenzhou Steeds: Up in class today but ran home nicely behind Wrotham Heath second up.
Use The Lot: Two runs this prep very poor. Hard to have even with his ability.
Marksmanship: Easy and cheap kill last start at Cranbourne. Testing material today and doesn’t look as good as all the others here.
Rowland: Not in this class.
Popeye Braggins: Not in this class.
Suspended Gem: A small chance today. Others better weighted and suited here on last start run. Can’t find a way to win.
The Jazz Singer: Not good enough.
Vihanna Victory: Not good enough on rpevious two runs.
Comments: Top 5 weights look the class above the rest. Not sure I really want to get involved a great deal here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Strategy: Voila Ici and Gotta Take Care small bets. Even smaller bet Indikator.
Rosehill Race 7
Two horse play here.
I’m a big fan of Zaratone and also Cradle Me, you all know this from them featuring in Best Bets the past month, but they are both way too short in this race today.
Dee’N’Gee is simply a forgive run for the first up fail. Rate the horse on last prep when 0.4L 3rd and 1.8L 5th in Listed grade on Good tracks. Last two runs have been fails on SLOW tracks and we are set to get a good track today. Looks way over the odds.
Hurrara simply didn’t handle the heavy last start and has to be forgiven. Three back won a Open class race beating a very handy horse in Ichihara and then two back ran 2.5L 3rd to Avoid Lightning. Weighted nicely after claims.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Dee’N’Gee AND Hurrara to win equal amounts.
Morphetville Race 8
Saturday Affair has eluded us to date, but comes slightly back in class today and is weighted nicely on a suitably rated track. Unlucky not to win last start, can get a better ride today and win.
Price looks value.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Saturday Affair to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
