Horse Racing Form for Caulfield Saturday 31 August 2013

Welcome to the Horse Racing Form for Caulfield on Memsie Stakes day. We have some stars jumping out today and many of these races will have huge affects on the markets for all of the major races this Spring. The Best Bets are a little shorter this week, but much higher confidence which is a good thing. The Best Value is around the $8 mark… which is still quite a solid price. I have the horse priced much shorter. Get down to Caulfield if you can, it is a hell of a card! As always, I hope your form is similar to mine. Good luck and happy punting.. and pay attention to the bias if there is one!

Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 Strawberry Boy

Next Best
Caulfield Race 4 Miracles of Life

Best Value
Caulfield Race 3 Ava’s Delight

Lay of the Day
Caulfield Race 8 Atlantic Jewel to place
Just to explain this one out… I think AJ either wins.. or doesn’t place. The $1.30 to place looks unders considering the field and all the factors plus the speed map.

Quaddie Leg One: 4
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 11, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 7, 9, 10, 14

Promotions – Memsie Stakes

Available from 11am, Betstar is giving you Double Fixed Odds on any runner in the Memsie Stakes with a Maximum bet of $50. If you are new to Betstar, be sure to enter the promotion/refer code 23703 when joining!
Find out more about Double Fixed Odds.

Betfair is giving odds of $3 for Atlantic Jewel to win through their Best of 4 Tote product (Max bet $25)
Find out more about how to place your bet on Atlantic Jewel at $3.

Think your pick can go close to beating Atlantic Jewel? Sportsbet will refund your bet up to $100 if your horse runs 2nd to Atlantic Jewel. Centrebet and Luxbet are running similar promotions.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield Race 1
Spirit of Heaven: Won well at 2 on heavy…. first up run was very solid and only up 2kg today after claim back in what looks a very easy level of class. Sting out of the ground today will help. Looks the winner on paper as long as they can make up ground today.
Marianne: Only won on heavy first up so very hard to rate on that run. Watch today.
Miralago: Not the worst form going into this race but is at the price for a reason.
Critical Angel: Only won a fairly average maiden at Geelong. Need to show a lot more.
Special Girls: Only shown form on very wet. No thanks.
Forever Discreet: Couldn’t win a maiden???
Star Fashion: Couldn’t win a country maiden?
Caminetto: How much as she progressed?
Downalatte: Can’t win a maiden?

Comments: Horror race. I hate non-winners. Spirit of Heaven the OBVIOUS pick as best horse… but with the rail today, there should be a leader bias early on and Spirit maps out the back.. so could I take $2s?
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Spirit of Heaven if you are having a play… but not for me.

Caulfield Race 2
Serene Star: Started the longest odds she has been all prep last start… hasn’t won in 8 runs but always puts in a solid run. Up to 59.5kg and back to mares class today. Last two runs in this class have been 1L 2nds and i’m not sure she has improved anymore to justify the win today? Never won on dead from 8 starts.
Flash of Doubt: Griffiths loves to have a chuck at the stumps and has every right to after her last start win at Sandown. The pace was on and she was impressive running away from them. Down 1kg today with no weight on her back, she has every right to be going close.
Lady Antebellum: Love the horse, goes well first up, has won in class, at track, at distance. Had two very solid wins last start including a win in this class at Moonee Valley. Looks over the odds and is a shot.
Oamaru Rose: Disappointing last two runs. Hard to back today in class off the wet stuff.
Vain Queen: Progressed on very strongly last prep. Very hard to tell if she will measure up this prep. I always struggle to back a horse going from the straight to a turning track. The good news is that she maps very well today.
Red Fez: Hayes has given this horse his Best chance of the weekend saying the trackwork has been very good. Last start the form of the horse was very solid as well. Off 54kg, she is in very well and from barrier 6 will go close.
Formidable: Hard to see the hrose measuring up and passing a few such as Vain Queen.
Angels Beach: Got found out on the SLOW and also down the straight as expected last start. Up in class and down 4kg appeals. Maps to sit 1 out 3 back or so which should be good enough to go close.
MyBenz: Tough task today over the 1000m which looks a little too short. Super win here sitting forward two runs back. Beriman very stiff to lose this ride and I think the 3kg makes all the difference. Expected to ride her further back. Back in play if sits in top 6 and gets in there easy.
Holder Sunset: Not sure she will measure up to these.
Balaclava Lady: Last win was over a horse who came out and impressed a week or two back in A Time for Julia. Ignore the last two runs of prep and then the form reads ok. If back to best can go close.
Lateva: Needs to have found 2 lengths to win this.
Daylight Second: Maiden winner.

Comments: If Spirit of Heaven wins well in the first race, it is most likely due to her being two classes below the type of race she should be in (but wouldn’t you with 80k on offer in such a poor race). This could dull many into a false sense that you can run on well today, this could give you better odds for front runners in this race, mainly Vain Queen.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Vain Queen is hard to go passed and I reckon we will get a good price. I am also going to have a smaller bet on Red Fez (early) who should be backed in. Lady Antebellum is a spec bet for anyone looking for a big odds chance.

Caulfield Race 3
Fibrillation: Last few runs been over way fruther. Put down in class today and down significantly in distance… couldn’t hurt? Weighted very well. You have to consider her a chance.
Oriental Ruby: Big run last start behind Octavia who would be winning this today. Down 2.5kg as well and will be running on big time.
Rememba Howe: Not good enough on previous runs.
Roman Treasure: Not sure she will be measuring up 2nd run in… but she does need to lead and set a furious tempo to have a chance.
Lucky Angel: Love the horse but she really is looking for further. NEver won first up.. but is weighted ok.
Rose Pattern: Last start was beyond poor. Disappointing. Hard to see the improvement needed.
Ava’s Delight: The horse to follow. Down 4kg today in weaker class… everything looks suited and you get the feleing they will push forward. If not, she can still swoop. Huge chance.
Mosse Diva: Off the Diva after last three runs. Not in this.
Mourasana: Needs further on previous stats.
Spot On Maggie: Last two runs have been poor. A non-winner.
Zoomania: Not going well enough on last start.
Angelic Lass: Got away with murder out front last start. Won’t get that today. Not a fan.
Bec Said No Credit: Good wins in easy class. Not here.
Princess Toshi: Not in this.
Ten Black: Not up to this class.

Comments: Ava’s Delight is weighted to win today.. all depends on the ride given.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Backing Ava’s Delight to win only… either wins or doesn’t place IMO. Also think Oriental Ruby will be hitting the line hard and has to be backed as second pick.

Caulfield Race 4
Miracles of Life: The horse we all wanted to win and she did last start. What a story. She is a genuine freak and that race has produced a LARGE number of good runners. She trailled super and there is no reason to suggest she can’t win today. Only issue for mine is how she maps… but in all reality she should get no further back than 3 back on the outside.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Many say a moral beaten last start, but the horse was ridden for a fair bit of luck… did run on well late. Screaming out for further… more like the 1600m. Certainly a chance and won’t get ridden for luck today. Keep an eye on the bias.
Prince Harada: A lot of hype around this horse but I can’t buy into it at the price. What did he beat? He won a country maiden and then went to Moonee Valley and beat home Boer who was then unplaced next start.
Divine Calling: Very interesting runner. Trial was horrible… but the horse has some big name owners and last prep was nothing to laugh at. Will get easy lead with Il Cavallo going back today and you get the feeling Nash is down here for a reason.. and it’s to win on this horse heading towards the Guineas. Looks over the odds. May be worth a 5er for the Guineas at the $120ish it is right now?
Thermal Current: Went back to a very easy race at Geelong to break his maiden status… always good to get a horse a win. Previous to that a strong 2nd over at Morphetville. Wouldn’t be shocked if they pushed forward today.. but needs to improve another length or two to win this.
Orion: Won a crappy $3k maiden race in NZ and chucked in the deep end today. No thanks.
Za Moulin Rouge: Good first up win but I just don’t think she is as good as these.

Comments: Doesn’t look much pace in this race which should suit the front-half and that is where I’m backing my horses from.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Backing Miracles of life to win and Divine Calling for a smaller amount. .

Caulfield Race 5
Under The Eiffel: Back to Open Class… won once from 15 starts at track… Three back was when he peaked.. gone backwards since.
Lucky Chappy: Won 2 from 3 at distance over in US… won 1 placed 5 from 9 at class…. Best run was back in November of 2012 and the runs in Feb/March were poor. Win wouldn’t shock.
Strawberry Boy: You get the feeling he is a super star every time he runs and last prep was no different… 1400-1800 looks his distance and comes into this very well today on a track that should be leader biased. Barrier 3 looks great also.
Lidari: Has won at distance previously but you get the feeling needs further. Has won first up previously… barrier 13 hurts.
Osvaldo: Not sure he will stack up here.
Veewap: Poor run last start. No thanks.
Goldoni: Never won firs tup, won 1 from 5 at distance.. looking for further on previous runs… better into prep.
Soledad: Not going well enough I don’t believe.
High Esteem: Down 4.5kg today Win wouldn’t shock but will the horse measure up against the potential superstars? Not so sure.
The Great Snowman: Won 2 of last 3 but this is much harder.
Sharalam: Looked a good thing first up winning but didn’t show much next start. Hard to judge.
Smarty Mac: Not in this class.
Underestimation: Weighted well today. Not the worst runner in race but surely wants further?

Comments: Keep an eye on how the track is playing. Strawberry Boy goes up a further 5% in confidence if there is a heavy leader bias at play.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Strawberry Boy hasn’t disappointed over this distance in the past or first up with 3/3 on both stats and 1/1 at track. Backing to win.

Caulfield Race 6
Neeson: Back to his best form last start in equal class. Down 2.5kg today and from barrier 1 could position further forward than most expect. A clear chance.
That’s The One: Never won at track and only once at distance. Will be sitting far back today and coming home late. Don’t dismiss.
Samaready: Superstar. Back onto a better track condition today and if she runs up to her 2YO form, is going to win this today. Loves the track, loves the distance and from barrier 4 maps very well. Big chance.
Undeniably: Goes well first up and last prep showed he had the class to compete in this today. Maps well enough.. but i’m happy to bet around.
Chiaramonte: A step up for Chiaramonte again today. Will be better on the ground today and weighted better, but hard barrier and a lot of pace in this hurts.
Future Solution: Doesn’t look suited by the distance today. Does run ok at track.
Pocket Rockets: Big win two back, giving up 2.5kg to Chiaramonte today.. big run on late last start.
It Is Written: Consistent runner who always goes close. Last five runs of last prep for 3 seconds, a third and a win, all by 0.4L or less the loses. Maps to sit 1 out 3 back and should be running on very well.
Jolie Bay: The runner in the race to watch. Last start runs were sensational and she is set to be a good thing if improves. Would love a speed battle out front which could happen.
Yosei: Always ridden for luck. Needs it again today.
Anise: Looks slightly outclassed on previous runs today. Never placed at track and first up record only 1 win.
Hadronica: Last few runs solid but not up to this.
Anabaa’s Legacy: No good enough.

Comments: Expecting the speed to be put on early which will suit Samaready and Jolie Bay.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Happy to back Jolie Bay here today.

Caulfield Race 7
Tanby: Much easier class today than previous runs. Fairly average first up record and open jumpouts didn’t impress me too much. Still, I like the horse.
Viola Ici: Looking for further than this and wetter.
Folding Gear: Did get blocked for runs last start but really no excuse for mine. Hard to have 2nd up. Never won 2nd up.
Mr O’Ceirin: Super run and win last start and three back also very solid run. Previous run finished next to Pakal at Caulfield. Maps extremely well today to take a sit or even lead.
Kesampour: French Group 2 3YO winner over 2000. Might need slightly further. Best Runs did come on wet it seems.. but can handle any surface. Don’t dismiss.
Pakal: Huge win last start with a fast pace setting up the win… seems to eat up a good track surface. Can win well today if at best.
Ibicenco: Disappointed last prep. Hard to have today on those runs.
The Cleaner: Shouldn’t be measuring up to this class today. Will try and lead and pout on a nice enough pace but you surely couldn’t back here.
Pelicano: Big run last start. Looking in for a good prep. All depends on how progressive he is.
Excluded: Goes well first up but never won at track. Goes well at distance. Question marks and will be swooping wide.
Chasse: Can’t have on last run.
Spacecraft: Wants to go forward and get an easy lead which won’t come. I reckon they sit outside leader and won’t measure up.
Motivado: Solid form last prep. Needs further.
Zabisco: Not good enough on last start run.
Araldo: First up international runner… needs further.
Bonne Nuit: Impressive last two wins. This is much harder. No thanks.

Comments: Two horse I want to be around here and they both map differently.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Backing Pakal solidly, secondary bet on Mr O’Ceirin

Caulfield Race 8
Green Moon: You know my feeling on him. Never won from 7 tries with 59kg.. never won at track and never placed at distance. Now… that being said… he maps well today. There really isn’t much speed in this race if you go off the pace Ajeeb set last start who is the natural leader and Green Moon is mapped to sit outside of Ajeeb. He loves to have the open room and you just can never count him out here. Apart from the weight, the ground is the main concern for me… horse has won 1 from 7 on dead.. 6 from 15 on good… and won’t even get close to good today I believe.
LuckyGray: Got beaten by Broken last start at Flemington and stepping up in class big time. Will enjoy a less wet surface but not by much. Has progression.. but how much? Not sure this much.
Happy Trails: I did like that they rode him out the back last start.. that is where he is suited and Beshara has realised that he isn’t going to win a solid G1 race pushing forward on the horse. If slow, I see no chance, if dead, don’t count out fully.
Fiorente: Solid enough international form, ran home 2nd in Melbourne Cup…. 1.8L 3rd to All Too Hard over 1400m last prep. Gai has only won 7% of races here in last 12 months (1 race). This doesn’t look the race the horse is set for… will be very far back.
Seville: Looked to be in for a good prep before getting injured last year. Trained on well and Williams keen to get onboard it seems. Only ever won 1 race over this distance… back in 2010! Better than that stat suggests. Better suited to Flemington for mine… never placed from 3 starts at this track.
Second Effort: Ran on strongly last start when 1L behind Puissance De Lune on a track condition that is by far his worst surface. The wetter the better. He maps to get a run more forward today from an outside barrier and looks a sneaky chance!
My Quest For Peace: never won at distance previously but does go well first up. Just hard to see him going close over this distance.
It’s A Dundeel: Found out last start in WFA-G1 going up from 3YO. Barrier one is a HUGE issue. McDonald proved on Cauthen that he is a good rider on the outside, but does get found out on the rails a lot. Maps have Dundeel going back to very last… can he pass 13 other horses???
Super Cool: Rodd off and Boss all too happy to jump on the back of this star. Has beaten a fair number of chances in this field including It’s A Dundeel. Speed maps fairly poorly today is the main thing against him here and he is best over the 2000+ distances. Still, you can’t count this horse out.
Ferlax: Won’t measure up. Not sure why the horse has a twitter handle just yet.
Ajeeb: Got an easy lead last start at course and distance and ran home well. Much harder race again today but will get it easy out front again. Can place, not sure can win.
Silent Achiever: Maps out the back which will be hard to run on from it seems today. A few better at this distance in race.
Atlantic Jewel: Hasn’t raced since April 2012 due to injury. Only ever won 1 WFA-G1 in what was a fairly soft race. Looks under the odds today and all the bookies are taking the horse on. I think her previous runs have all been solid and she is undefeated for a reason, but there is always a risk with a horse coming back like this. Maps well enough.

Comments: Watch for the bias of the track when getting to this race before deciding on anything to win here. Fiorente and It’s a Dundeel need the ground to be playing for swoopers out wide.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Betstar offering double fixed odds on Atlantic Jewel makes the horse appeal at the price..and Betfair giving $3 fixed on their tote product for a set amount also…  but certainly not any best bet in this race. As you can see above, my lay of the day is Atlantic Jewel to place. I think she wins or places.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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