Welcome to The Profits form guide for Boxing Day at Caulfield Racecourse. Merry Christmas to every one of our readers and I hope you had a day filled with friends, family, food and fun! I hope Santa checked his list this year extra close and saw my request for a few winners to come our way.. and I think he has delivered them. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 Mango Mojito
Next Best
Caulfield Race 3 Cottonwood Grove
Best Value
Caulfield Race 6 Junoesque
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 2 (only if ground is still dead by start of Quaddie Leg), 3, 4, 11, 13, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
WHY????
Just leave this. Real races start from R2 onwards!
Caulfield Race 2
You Can Dance: Just ignore last start and wipe it off the record. Two runs back in much harder company was a solid first up run. Weighted to win this today from a perfect barrier.
Danestroem: Two wins in a row this prep and up 0.5kg after claims. Meets Mango Mojito very poorly at weights who is 5kg better off today. Will run well.
Mango Mojito: Weighted to win today. Continues to run well and with the claim today comes in so well at the weights it’s silly. Only issue will be speed out the front.
Vicario: Didn’t show much at all first up but down in grade off 54kg. Don’t dismiss here off win over 1200m at Caulfield in much harder company.
Champagne Shisha: Good win over 1200m last prep but isn’t the best first up runner. Never won at track.
Text’N Hurley: I like this horse. I thought her 3YO prep was very good. Probably better over further is the only issue today and not as well weighted against others from last prep.
Oh So Petite: Won an average race last start. Can’t see.
Mark’s Matilda: Weighted well today is solid enough but needs to get a run
Comments: Mango Mojito is weighted to win today and very hard to ignore. A few progressive types but very happy with this price.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Mango Mojito to win
Caulfield Race 3
Happy As Hell: Done everything wrong sticking interference yet finding a way to win both. Looks progressive and can continue on today weighted to win.
The Terricks: Lacked a bit of will to win last start. 0.5kg worse off today against Happy As Hell. Can run well.
Rainbow Storm: A little disappointing last start but to be fair the saddle slipped. Weighted 0.5kg worse off against winner. Don’t dismiss.
Championmet: Every chance last start to run on and win but didn’t. Extra 200m and back on Dead/Good should benefit.
Astra Delight: Maps well today. Had his chances last start. Worse off at weights than others from that race.
Koka: Last two runs were fairly average at best. Hard to back.
Sevva Nights: Didn’t show much in harder company first two runs and then way back in class got the win. Can’t see here.
Cottonwood Grove: Disappointed last start at Caulfield when favourite. Had a heart issue and didn’t handle the slow track. Barrier 3 today and back to a nice track condition. Can run well.
Call us Primi: Won maiden on heavy last start. Previous runs only fair. Not for me.
Sure You Can: Not sure what to make of last start. Too far back? Weighted to win today but has to find alot.
Comments: Cottonwood Grove looks suited today and is a great E/W chance.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Cottonwood Grove E/W
Caulfield Race 4
Shadow of the Mist: Showed large progression this prep with a maiden win then a surprising win last start at course and similar distance. Can run well from barrier.
Belle Que: 2.5kg better off today against Shadow of the Mist. Barrier 3 means she can sit a little further forward. Big chance.
It’s One: Won maiden last start and previous run was 0.3L off Belle Que in a maiden. Worse off at weights today.
Mambo Lady: Big winner of a maiden over 1600m and then last start at Flemington ran on very well. Weighted nicely and back in distance should suit. Maps to get an easy lead.
Miss Maggiebeel: Only a fair maiden win firs tup. Like to see a Magnus filly in her 4th year before I ever back them.
So Hasty: How good is she?? Showed a massive leep forward when led start to finish at Werribie and won by 8 lengths beating some fairly average runners.
Rowdy Belle: Hard to have on form lines this prep.
Strazero: Poor in slow last start. Weighted ok but hard to have.
Young Tigers Jeuny: Another large maiden winner. Return this prep and struck two slow tracks first and second up before getting dead in really easy grade and bolting away with it. Looks a little over the odds.
Pressure Down: First up run was fairly poor it has to be said and previous prep only won a maiden fairly. Hard to have.
Zedi Gold: Couldn’t win a maiden this prep. Hard to have.
Comments: Tough race. Quite a few progressive types.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Mambo Lady on top and worth a small E/W go if betting.
Caulfield Race 5
Royal Mail: Like the horse but shown nothing last two preps. Never won first up either way.
Cosentino: Never won first up but always goes well. Never won at class or track. Only missed a place once ever at this distance.
Bombalatomba: Never placed at track. Won two from 5 last prep in much eaiser company over much longer. Not for me.
Melete: Running in country class last prep and this prep. Ran well enough only run this prep but is up 4.5kg. Not so sure.
Dance for Cash: Good run two back at course and then last start up in class only ran fairly. Back to Caulfield and down in weight in this class looks suited again.
Word Gets Around: Been on the drift. Never placed from 3 goes at distance or 2 goes at track. Only won 1 from 5 first up. Showed some class last prep but hard to see on all trends.
Little Bro: Two runs this prep have been solid. Down to 57.5kg today which would have seen him win last start. A fair bit of early speed to contest with but should get a strong position. Best was seen last prep at 1400m.
Too Deadly: Missed the start the last two runs. HEAVILY down in class today after running home strongly at Flemington. Will be a long way back is the big issue. Weighted to go close.
Praesentia: Similar form lines to Little Bro but maps a little further back. Can run well.
Floatmyboat: Big run last start behind Sistine Demon at Flemington and is down 0.5kg today. Hard to map today from barrier 10. Should run well.
Balzac: Disappointing runs this prep if you ask me. Can’t see measuring up to this grade.
Averau: Been off a long while and weighted well today.. but looking for further it seems?
Faith ‘N’ Belief: RUnning ok in lesser class without winning. Not sure can get the win again.
Tampere: Not sure what to make of him. Looks to be wanting further on last prep.
Comments: Some average horses in this but two stand out who are weighted well and ready to win.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Little Bro to win from Praesentia
Caulfield Race 6
Streets of Seattle: Strong horse better suited to further distances and takes a while to come into runs. Never won first or second up previously and top of weights.
Sensational Report: Just ignore last start on a tricky track. Ran home well and is 2kg better off today against Spirited Will. A very strong chance in this class. Ground needs to be Dead though.
Alibernai: Pretty average run first up at an unsuitabe distance. Has won 2 placed 2 from 6 at this distance while won 2 from 4 second up.Will position further forward today and in a class she can win. Looks over the odds off 54.5kg.
Winta Chiller: Quality win last start at Caulfield, but they did run a fairly fast time on the dead track. Looks to be flying.
Flying Hostess: This Mare got given a cat calendar for Christmas. Last 3 runs have been 2nds by 0.5L 0.8L and 0.1L. She just doesn’t have the will to win it seems. Always runs well and is in well again today but a bit of an issue giving Chiquada 2kg today and Sensational Report 1.5kg today.
Spirited Well: Impressive enough win last start at Caulfield but certainly got all the splits. I can’t take much of of that run and this is much harder. Also not in well at weights.
Nautical: Fairly disappointing up in class last start and just only finished fairly off what was to be fair a slow tempo at the front. Not sure there is the speed on for a win here.
Catered: Super poor last start at Flemington. Hard to have today on that. Previous runs also show nothing.
First Bloom: Good win first up on heavy then ran on ok at Flemington. Weighted well.
Junesque: Been found in the market in 60% since opening prices for good reason. Last start win was super impressive even though it was in country grade. Down 5.5kg today and if you take it off her last three runs then she does look to be going places this prep.
Clear Direction: Come back since prep in strong form to win some fairly average country grade races. Equal weight today. Not sure measures up.
St Issey: Down 6kg today after claims and won’t get as far back today.. If reproduces a similar run from closer to the pace as last start then can win.
Pentimento: Hard to see measuring up here first up in a grade she has never won on a track she has never placed. Never placed 7/7 on Good either just fyi!
Comments: Taking on a few of the favs here and going with some outsiders I think are way over the odds.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg two: 2 (only if ground is still dead by start of Quaddie), 3, 4, 11, 13, 16
Strategy: 2 units on Junoesque to win. 0.75 units on St Issey. 0.50 units on Aliberani.
Caulfield Race 7
Chase The Rainbow: Showed a lot of progression through the 7 runs before injury has kept the horse off the track. Off the top weight of 58kg but is 2/2 at distance and last start won by 3.3L at this course in similar class. Trial showed has returned well.
It Is Written: Last three runs have been strong enough without threatening. Has certainly gone backwards. I’m not sure he measures up again. A few here beat him.
Richie’s Vibe: Hard to rate him here today. His best runs have been over 1200m and he always goes close.. so if you are backing him today, you won’t be far off. Back from Group 3 company where he ran well enough with the winner better suited by the track run he got. Expect them to sit a little further back in the run today.
Zedi Knight: Ran a cheaky race first up but hard to see him winning this today. The step up to 1200m is suitable.
Karacatis: Had breathing issues last start at Flemington. Previous run over 1200m ran 2L 4th and from barrier 2 can go close.
Loveyamadly: Did everything right first up but just couldn’t run down Vatican in what looked a bit of a speed lane on the inside. Distance increase to 1200m is a bonus while down 2kg. Never missed a place at track.
Reparations: Won once first up in the past. Won 4 from 8 at this distance in the past but last win at course was over 1400m. Weighted nicely if comes back at best.
Don’t Get Exctied: Ran super first up getting the win at course and distance in easier company. Should improve from that run and if you take last two runs in Open and Listed, he will go super close today. Down 6kg which is a massive bonus. Only issue is barrier.
Morant: Last two runs this prep have been solid without winning. Down 1kg today and from barrier 5 maps well enough.
Kneeling: Progressive type who impressed last prep. Has won first up previously and this is a big step back in class. Weighted to win but barrier hurts a lot due to coming from the back.
Solsay: Ran very well last start at course when lost plate. 3.5kg worse off today against Don’t Get Excited though. Don’t write off fully from a good barrier.
Comments: Only three runners here I think don’t have a chance to win which suggests a tough race.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8
Strategy: Don’t Get Excited to win from Richie’s Vibe.
Caulfield Race 8
Alrouz: Had every chance last start but just couldn’t hold on. Down in class today but only up 0.5kg. At best can go close.
My Bentley: Three runs back over 1400m went close behind Post D’France but since shown nothing. Hard to have.
Murdoch’s Joy: Last two runs have been solid from the back. Down in class and weighted well. Go close at best.
Adjuster: Last three runs have been very disappointing. Hard to have at weights.
Aurum Spirit: Run first up was solid form but then last two runs have been less than impressive. Up 3kg today is a concern.
Tilla Bell Rings: Got the run of the race last start at MV and got home just in time. Will be close to the back again today from an outside barrier. Needs to improve again.
Correggio: Ran home well enough last start and comes in well at the weights. Not sure he is the best in this but should run well.
Initiator: Good win two back and ran well last start at Caulfield but just found a few too good. Up 2.5kg today which is a little harsh compared to Savitar. Always runs well.
Magnapal: Showed a large amount of progression this prep like most Magnus horses at 4YO. How far will he go? Wouldn’t shock to see him win this.
Cougat King: Hard to see the 10YO measuring up here.
Nisos: Strong last prep but the two runs this prep have only been ok. Two back was the better run.
Prince Jester: Hard to see the win off previous runs. May go better due to being very well weighted though.
Comments: Another tough race. Alot of the chances are coming from the back and with only one key leader in the race, I’m willing to go for a runner who positions near the pace.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Initiator on top from Magnapal.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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