Horse Racing Form for Caulfield Wednesday 11 December 2013

Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caufield on a Wednesday! Yes, back at Caulfield on a Wednesday. The rail is in the same position today and there has been a fair bit of rain inbetween Saturday and today. It is summer isn’t it!?! Well, the form certainly stood up on Saturday. One of the best individual efforts for a long time by our tips, but it doesn’t mean anything when the Best Bet goes under after looking home (traded into $1.16 on Betfair) at the 100m. That is racing though! As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 Sensational Report

Next Best
Caulfield Race 8 Balayeur

Best Value
Caulfield Race 7 North Atlantic Ice

Best Place Bet
Caulfield Race 4 Synthetic

Caulfield Quaddie
With no ‘odds on’ pops today, shortest around say $4, we can go fairly wide today and expect to get a strong result for a smaller %.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Two:  5, 9, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 6, 7, 8

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield Race 1
Do you have more inside information than most? Then bet here. Do you have more sense than others? Then sit this one out and take notes on the runners.

Caulfield Race 2
Too much progression to deal with in this race. I think Rainbow Storm and Cottonwood Grove are the top picks in the race, but there are several here who could be winning.
Happy to sit this out and not even offer anything up.

Caulfield Race 3
As per the previous race, too many form lines that haven’t been worked out as of yet.

Caulfield Race 4
A poor maiden race.
Synthetic is a horse we backed first up and is more than double the price here today at a better distance and mapped very well. Is also down in weight a little. For me, the price is right and i’m actually willing to follow this maiden for one more run. I can’t see the horse missing the place here based off the runs we have seen as he WILL handle a wet track.

Confidence 75%
Strategy: 3 units to place 1 unit to win

Caulfield Race 5
Danish Whiskey: Has won first up but that was a long time ago. A quality runner who has ability.
Sensational Report: What a super win last start at course and distance. Down in class today and gets the right conditions. We got $21s on Monday night (reduced to $15 after deductions) and she is much shorter today. I actually think the price is still value. Barrier 3 means she will be in a similar position today. Confidence is high on a slow OR dead track.
Vain Attraction: Super poor run last start. Not sure what to make of her today. Not the worst here but poorly weighted against Sensational Report and never placed on a slow track.
Roses in the Glen: Hasn’t shown us anything this prep. Hard to have here.
Spirited Will: Never placed first up. Better off over further. Wants it wetter.
Dare I Ask: Ran on well enough two back at MV but really should have won last start in much easier company to be winning today. Wet track does suit on three back run is a positive.
Oh So Petite: Won ok last start in much easier company. Doesn’t look as well weighted today from a poor barrier.
Daylight Second: Hard runner to catch. Should be suited by the wet ground today and is down 8kg today off a ‘nice enough’ run last start.

Comments: Two main contenders in this one for mine in Sensational Report and Black Booty.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 9, 11
Strategy: Sensational Report to win from Black Booty

Caulfield Race 6
Adams Bell: Never placed at track. Hasn’t won since Jan 2012. Did go close in MUCH easier company two back then outclassed last start in similar. No thanks.
Benefit: 2000m down to 1400m seems very strange! Best runs have been over this distance though I would suggest from this prep. Weight does hurt but comes into this well.
Pure Courage: Been running in country races the past three. Barrier hurts and not sure measures up here at weights.
Air Striker: Just ignore last start on the heavy. Two back run was solid behind Our SMokin Rock when leading all the way. Barrier is the main issue and a lot of speed in the race.
Nesbo: Strong first prep when was only seen on wet tracks. Suspect will improve on less rain affected today. Maps to sit midfield and strong rider onboard who knows the horse. Can go close if at best.
Roshaca: Never runs a bad race… but is a type who doesn’t have heart if you look at two previous runs. Big step up in class but maps well.
Under The Leaner: Just continues to run well without winning for us. Hasn’t won since June of 2012 but has placed 9 of last 18 runs.
Bank Notes: Hasn’t been seen since won a maiden on rain affected track. Ran well on Dead the previous race in a very fast time out the front. Will be leading today and looks very progressive.
Make Mine Brandy: Three runs this prep have all been solid. Maps to sit further back today which could actually suit. Hard to ignore the form.
La Venta: Well backed first up when ran a strong 3rd to Free of Doubt who has progressed onwards in city class. Push forward from barrier which should be easy to do. Can run well.
Stella Brom: Hard to hav eon previous runs.
Dashiell: Won a much easier race last start at Cranbourne when favourite. Not sure in this class.
Shoalhaven: Last prep was targeted at distances further than this. I can’t have on that.

Comments: Tough race. 4 key chances with 1 roughy.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 5, 9, 11, 12
Strategy: Bank Notes on top.

Caulfield Race 7
Danger Close: Can go forward or back in his runs so will probably settle midfield from barrier 9. Shown enough to suggest he has the ability to go close today.
Emperor’s Chariot: Two back at Sale suited by a very fast pace out front but was found out last start at Cranny off an average tempo with 60kg out the back. Too far back today for mine.
North Atlantic Ice: Maiden win last prep was super impressive from start to finish in a very fast time. Next start went back in run at Flemington down the straight and burst through late just to miss on the line in a photo. That run the horse was slowly away and blocked for runs. HEAVILY down in class today and only up 3kg after claims, if brings 90% of those last two runs, will be winning.
TheBarwonPrince: Absolutely huge last start at Moonee Valley over the 950m from the back. Two back run was solid as well. Equal weight today and back in class.. Will be ridden for luck from barrier 5 and hit the line hard.
If I Could: Shown us nothing since late 2012 but hasn’t been seen in 7 months. Suited over further.
Prince Stratum: Finally struck a win in maiden company first up. Was quite impressive if you ask me. Weighted poorly but can’t be counted out today.
Textiles: Every chance the last two runs and has been por. Can’t have today.
Canbrada: Won a poorly rated race last start, but was blocked for runs. Up 2kg today which certainly hurts.
Al Maisan: Won two in a row before running a solid enough 7th to Kiss Me Ketut who was a favourite in a better race than this today before being scratched. Just ignore last start on the heavy. Rates well, but certainly will be far back in the run.
Nella Fantasia: If you rated her off last prep, she would be winning this today. If you rate her off last start, she doesn’t place today. Hard to place this runner who should get the run of the race. I can’t ignore, but can’t have on top either.
Kentucky Gem: Will be very far back in the run today from barrier 13. Equal weights against Danger Close and maps for a run worse than last start. Hard to rate here.
Hodah: Maiden only winner. Snowden hard so can respect on that and almost won a 2YO race at Rosehill… but hasn’t been the same the last 4 runs if you ask me. No thanks.
Stellaclacier: Solid 2YO craeer and hasn’t been seen since. Maps forward enough and if you take off the first prep runs, can run well. Needs to have improved at least 2 lengths today though.

Comments: Hard to ignore the price available for North Atlantic Ice.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 11
Strategy: North Atlantic Ice E/W

Caulfield Race 8
Just the five runners of interest in this one for mine.
Aurum Spirit: A bit of a cat, he goes up 4kg today after a strong enough run home 4th behind Freshwater Storm last start but back down in class. Barrier 3 might mean he gets stuck on the rail closer to the back which is an issue… but it also might mean they can settle 1-2 lengths closer to the speed. Needs luck.
Tombola: The horse on the up in this race.. his last four runs have all been solid and two back he made easy work on Suspended Gem who should have taken out a country cup on the weekend. The clear speed in the race and shouldn’t have an issue taking the rail. The only issue for me is the weight.. others better weighted.. but will certainly be in this at the finish.
Balayeur: Gets back in his runs and has shown some promise all three runs this prep. Slowly away the first two but jumped well enough last start. Barrier 2 means he will be ridden for a bit of luck, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he sat outside of Correggio about 6th in running which would be the perfect spot. 5kg better off today against Tombola on 0.3L defeat last start and 3kg better off against Prince Jester for 1.7L ahead of it.
Prince Jester: Horse with a lot of potential who gets very far back in his runs. Showed a lot of promise last prep with a 4.3L win over 1800m 3 runs into prep which is worth noting. Is he going the same this prep?

Comments: I keep coming back to Balayeur. As long as he is giving a good ride today, he is in with a massive chance.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Balayeur E/W

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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