Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield Wednesday 16 October 2013 for Thousand Guineas day. Well how good was the weekend? We are certainly back on track with the most profitable week of the year. It was due to happen and there was no better time to fill the coffers than the start of the good racing. The card today looks very difficult. Confidence levels are much lower than on Saturday so we are betting very safe. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Caulfield Race 6 Guelph (Double Fixed Odds with Betstar)
Caulfield Race 3 Specter
Best Place Bet
Caulfield Race 8 Complicate
Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 9, 11 (I never recommend this but you should consider two Quaddies, one with the FIELD here)
Leg Two: 1, 2
Leg Three: 2, 7, 9, 13, 14
Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 13, 14
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
The Bowler: Great at 2YO but first two runs this prep have been VERY poor. Off 60kg today back down in class, hard to see him staying this out.
Tips and Beers: Progressive type who ran well last start in Adelaide. Up in class and up 4.5kg is an issue.
Googly Gander: Maiden winner who ran a solid enough time. Hard to trust a runner like thsi who took 3 races to break the maiden.. but did win well.
Duran: Showed nothing last start at Caulfield. Hard to see going anywhere close today.
Gravitational: Very disappointing last start at course and similar distance off slow. Won’t measure up off that run.
Mantener La Fe: Didn’t handle slow as well as needed two back to be winning this today. Could still run a place.
No Equivalent: Three runs this prep to break the maiden and didn’t handle slow as well as needed.
Bearish: Jumped poorly first up in maiden and settled last on a slow track. Ran on well enough to claim the win. Looks progressive.
Comments: No need to go crazy early
Strategy: Bearish looks not the worst bet ever on the E/W. Looks progressive and will handle the track conditions.
Junoob: First two runs this prep were solid enough to suggest he has more scope and will be better suited up to this distance today. Maps well enough as well.
Sahara Symphony: Doesn’t seem to handle wet tracks and should still be wet for this race. Ran a strong 2nd to Flying Hussler two back and then last start won well. Up in weight but down in class here. Big chance on form but needs to jump well from barrier.
Savvy Dancer: at weights could go closed to turning tables on Sahara Symphony but may get a poorer position today..
Beware of TheStorm: Another coming out of Sahara Symphony race. Goes well on slow. Could improve enough today positioning further forward.
Tanah Lot: Just not tracking a long well enough this prep to suggest can pass all of these today.
Mujadale: Had every chance last start. Others beat him home.
Anudjawun: Just ignore last start. Doesn’t handle Heavy. If you look at two previous runs he actually wasn’t the worst runner going around there… and he is suited to a big step up in distance. Look, I’m not saying he will win… or am i?
Caroun: Didn’t measure up last three runs but was suited by heavy the run prior. Good runner but won’t beat all of these home.
Correggio: Improved significantly through his four runs this prep. Last start on Heavy in listed company ran very well. Down 0.5kg today back in class and will get a rain affected track. Big chance.
Sacred Dream: Two back won at distance and similar track condition. Last start was very poor. Hard to rate.
History No Hurdle: Three back run was very much suited on heavy but was still beaten easily. Last two runs too poor here.
Mr Jazz: Looking for it heavier for a lesser company race.
Packing Empire: Will run well like many others but will be outclassed.
Comments: A hard race to bet into with confidence.. but I just get the feeling it may be Anudjawun’s day… all me crazy!
Strategy: Correggio on top from Anudjawun
Auld Burns: WOn 1 from 7 at distance and never won at track. Only one win from 17 at class. Does go ok first up though. last prep really does suggest he is looking for further and weighted poorly.
Stanzout: Ran very well two back 0.5L behind Le Bonsir at MV. Next start didn’t really handle the heavy going. Should be better suited today.
Grey Monarch: Unlucky on the weekend not to get a run around at $400-1 due to truck breaking down then finally getting to the stalls and being kicked. Has shown absolutely nothing this prep so hard to see the form reversal in this class.
Specter: Absolutely flashed home late first up behind Sumakaray who would be going close to winning this today. Only up 1kg and better barrier today has every chance to sneak up on them and fly through late.
Run Diego :Found best last start on the heavy when went forward at mornington. Back to a lesser ground today but could run well going forward.
Misty Eyes: Hard to see the progression on previous runs in formlines.
Freshwater Storm: Won well enough first up but is he in this class? Not so sure.
Dance For Cash: Won well enough first up and last prep suggest he improved significantly through his runs. Will sit forward and can’t be dismised.
Greystone: Ran poorly first up at Geelong and has never placed at this distance in the past.. although to be fair has run 4th twice. Needs to improve.
High Kingczar: Looking for much further distance than this.
Live For Today: Failed due to track last start. Very strong win two back on slow. Track should suit him today and McEvoy takes the ride.
Hoban: Sorry, it is Hoban not Boban! Still, two runs this prep have both had merit. Down in weight today and Williams takes the ride. Could be value.
Stanzior: Last two runs off the record due to heavy track and form doesn’t look bad. Doesn’t look 50-1 bad. Barrier an issue but could be worth a 5er at the price.
Prussian Knockout: Last two runs this prep wouldn’t be winning today.
Consoling Amy: Won a fastly run race firs tup this prep. Hard to see measuring up on that run though.
Comments: Specter is the stand out. Very eye-catching run last start and should be hard to beat. Stanzior deserves a spec today.
Strategy: Backing Specter to win. Very small win bet on Stanzior also.
Road Trippin’: Great ride last start to pinch a lead around the turn and was never getting run down. Won’t get it this easy today but last four runs have all been very solid. Down in class and is very hard to ignore from barrier 1.
Brian’s Honour: Got the ground he wanted last start and ran very well but was beaten by a very progressive type. Weighted well enough again today and maps suggest he can either lead or take a more positive position today. The ground will be suited to him today. Big chance.
Soros: Two and three back runs were solid enough but was found out last start. Needs to find two lengths to win today.
Flyingconi: Continues to run well without winning. Too far back last start and Road Trippin was given the better ride. Has to be respected.
Hosting: Very classy runner. Form around Hosting has been holding up all over the place. Went close last start in a very fastly run Group 2 race up in Sydney. Back down to this class and only up 4.5kg.. looks a stand out. Only issue is ground but handles dead.
Midnight Glory: Not going well enough the past three runs. Can you forgive? I can’t.
Rhythm To Spare: Cardiac Arrhythmia last start when close to favourite at Caulfield. Still looks to be needing further than this. Better suited to dryer tracks.
Me Hungi: Late starting runner whose first prep produced 5 wins (4 in a row) and won in this class. Put in some very solid runs and wouldn’t surprise if went close today.
Sant Desir: Ran well enough last start in Adelaide but steps up to a distance he is really unknown at on recent form lines. Could run well enough. Mcevoy doesn’t send them over with no hope.
Upbeat: Last start ran a very solid race behind Lampedusa. Should have no issues with ground.
Sharalam: Ran on well enough first up in a much classier race than this and is only up 0.5kg today. Big chance at weights if finds best.
Xavi: Ignore last start run where ridden wide with no chance. Down 5.5kg today but much harder company. Should go close.
Canonized: Hard to see him measuring up on first two runs this prep.
Bono Vox: Goes well first up and has won at this distance previously. Need to have improved due to this class today.
Adjuster: First up run was good enough and will position further forward today. Don’t dismiss.
Comments: About 8 chances in this race. I will find it very hard to justify a bet here.
Strategy: Hosting on top from Brian’s Honour and Xavi.
Backbone: Goes well really 2nd up and is back to a winable distance. Showed enough first up but certainly has to find much more today. May sit a little further forward which is needed.
Electric Fusion: Strong win first up over 1530m and is up in class and distance today. Ran a strong 2nd to hawkspur in 3Y-GP1 class last prep over 2400m so one would expect him to go close here today. Need to pass a wall of horses.
Final Folly: Ran only fairly first up in easier company. Best runs have come over further distances and in lesser classes. Better deep into runs. Never won first or second up.
Phantom Brew: Big win last start at Caulfield. Down in class today and up 6kg which hurts. Time was sound enough and went close three back also. Barrier may be an issue to get a forward enough spot but is in with a chance.
Supreme Warrior: Strong start to finish run but didn’t have enough over the distance. Will take a sit today which could get him the extra distance but suspect not?
Altonio: First up run was very poor and hard to see such improvement 2nd up.
Dylanson: Last two runs over similar distances in Adelaide ahve been strong. Maps well enough and could go close.
Fabriano: Ran well enough last start in much harder company. Previous run probably should have beat home Phantom Brew. Hard to match up and will most certainly be sitting far back and need to pass a wall of them.
Hunger: Continues to run well without winning. Suggestion is he may sit further forward today which could prove the difference.
Mintaro: Blocked for runs last start at Caulfield and probably should have won. Horrible barrier today and needs to put in some big sectionals early to get over. Hard to see but is weighted ok.
Ruscello: UK runner who only recently landed. Is rock hard fit 6 runs into prep and will be pushing forward from an outside barrier today. May struggle to get in but also unknown on this surface. Never won in class.
Ominous: French horse who will certainly be going forward today from an outside barrier. First up run over-raced and was a little unlucky not to win. Big step up here if couldn’t win that.
Purettan: First up run was ok but next start slowly away and finished off poorly. Could run well if jumps ok but hard to know with this runner.
Angola: First up run was fairly poor and has never won second up either. Looks to be wanting even further than this.
Kinesthetic: WOn a very easy race in lesser class. Never won at this distance is interesting but surely not going well enough.
Tycoon Rob: Ran poorly last start up in clas and goes back down today. Won well at Sale but this looks tougher.
Hannaford: Two strong enough wins this prep but this is a step up again. Needs to improve more.
Comments: So many runners. SO many form lines. No confidence. Wide in Quaddie.
Quaddle Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 9, 11 (I never recommend this but you should consider two Quaddies, one with the FIELD here)
Strategy: I actually couldn’t bet here. Electric Fusion is the best runner in the race while Fabriano has the progression.. but I just can’t.
Race 6 Schweppes Thousand Guineas
Guelph: Dominated them the last two runs up in Sydney and found her best over the 1600m when ridden 3-wide and still beating them with class. Maps to actually get in today and should have the class here.
Gregers: Very classy ride by Schofield last start at Caulfield when he was able to take the right run to win on a slow track. Conditions will suit her today and extra 200m will suit.
Bound For Earth: Strong enough runner but found best over 1200m first up and hasn’t been able to match it up in distance.
Se Sauver: Won a photo last start at Flemington hitting the line well. Should run well but not sure she is good enough to beat the top hopes here.
May’s Dream: The runner everyone is talking about as the main treat to Guelph. Won very well at course over 1400m last start and comes into this very well. Is she good enough? Maps to sit out the back.
Godiva Rock: Big wraps as a 2YO running 3rd behind Guelph and then 3rd behind Miracles of Life but hasn’t lived up to the hype at 3.
Miracle To Me: Runs this prep have all been solid without blowing you away. The two wins were nice coming from the back while you could suggest the tempo of her last two races simply didn’t suit. Times were sound and looks a threat.
Wordplay: Ran 2nd to Savvy Nature two back at Newcastle which looks solid form after the last few weekends races. Sat further back at Flemington last start and ran on well without threatening. Oliver gets the ride which generally tells you something.
Gypsy DIamond: Hard to see her measuring up here.
Comments: Hard to go past the obvious.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2
Strategy: Double Fixed Odds available on Guelph gives value.
Unchain My Heart: Never won at distance and only ever placed once. Never won first up. Top weight.
Bonaria: Disappointing run last start in Group 1. Back in class heavily today and up in weight. Track condition will be fine. Big chance if runs up tot two previous runs. Maps to sit signfificantly further forward today to give the mare every chance.
Alzora: Strong enough run last start but this is a signifcantly harder race and form around Bonaria doesn’t stack up.
Kasane: Two runs this prep has shown nothing. Need to find much more.
Minnie Downs: Goes well at track without winning. Strong run first up this prep and with a firmer track today could take the extra step. Maps well enough but probably needs some luck.
Oriental Ruby: Since first up run this prep over 1200m has ran ‘ok’; without impressing. Needs to find an extra length or two which doesnt’ seem to be there.
Goldslick: Blocked for runs both runs this prep and is due to record a win. Finished a close 3rd at Flemington behind Molto Bene and British General which had franked form with British General winning at course and similar distance last weekend. Up 2kg and Rodd goes back onboard. Rates to win with the right ride.
Notice Received: Showed big improvement first up winning at course and short distance off an only average tempo. Did beat a few worse than others in this field today but can’t be ignored.
Twilighting: too far back last start and weighted poorly. Meets Notice Received 6kg better off today at the weights and from barrier 3 should get a ride to win. Big chance.
Two Sugar: Good run first up this prep and maps to lead today. Weighted well enough and could go close. Issue is never won at class or track from 5 starts.
Miss Zenella: Ran well enough firs tup but seems to be looking for further.
Crimson Lady: Another runner who ran well but will be even further back today and will be hard to pass all of these.
Godspiel: Very easy win in much easier company on a Sunday at short odds. Down 3kg today and meets a tougher field.. but is still a big chance with a huge sprint. Don’t discount her!
Zonza: Oliver takes the ride on this NZ mare who ran Moriarty to 1.3L up in Sydney over 2000m last prep. Ran wel winning in NZ first up and up an extra 200m today suits. Oliver goes on. Tough to beat here.
Comments: Very tough race. The NZ mare is probably the class of the race while several others are in great order. Tough.
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 7, 9, 13, 14
Strategy: Zonza to win from Goldslick. Twilighting weighted so well today is a spec bet.
Hot Snitzel: Top weight today which hurts a little. Has won 3 from 6 first up and last prep won in Group compan before going close in Group 2 and Group 1. Maps to get a rails run behind the leader and if the track is slow (unlikely by this stage of day) then he is almost the top hope.
Academus: Strong Lonhro gelding who always gives 100% and goes close every run. 3YO career from WA to QLD was a winner and rated well behind Sizzling. Best form was shown on a Good track, but did win his last run in similar company on a dead track. The only issue is that he may be better suited to further and the barrier makes it tough to get a good run.
Admantium: Newitt off, Williams on. Not often you see Williams jump onto a runner like this who has failed first two runs of prep. Maps to go forward from barrier 7 and either find the rail or sit outside Le Bonsir. Best runs last prep came 3 runs in. Don’t dismiss.
Le Bonsir: First two wins this prep were very sound and the form lines worked out before up 4kg for a run in WFA-G1 where he took a sit and finished off really well behind Samaready and Buffering into 3rd. Both those horses would be short in the market and he has been well found in early betting. Interesting to note he has never won from 7 starts on dead, but last start on dead was very solid. Top chance but barrier means he needs to get away well.
Sea Lord: Not the same horse this prep. Place chance at best.
Go The Knuckle: Very disappointing runs first and second up. Not the same horse this prep but is weighted well today. Never won at Caulfield.
Undeniably: First up run was poor in Group 3 level before going back in class and sitting further forward at Caulfield and putting in another disappointing run. Hard to have.
Cascabel: Hasn’t been seen on the track since December of last year when running 3rd blocked for runs in similar company and distance at track. Newitt back on and weighted nicely. Goes well first up (3 wins from 7) but never won in this class is an issue.
Complicate: Very easy heavy win on heavy first up and last prep had runs similar to that of Academus beating him home on one occasion as well. He is 3.5kg better off against Academus today compared to that run and has had an easy lead in way to get him fit for this. Maps well enough from barrier 11 to get in. Big chance.
Mr Griswold: Ran well enough first up this prep but hard to see the extra imrpovement needed today.
Felidea: Seems to be wanting further than this based off first up run where blocked for runs but really didn’t run on well.
General Offer: Good win last start in mcuh easier company. Not weighted very well today but could sneak a place.
Livingno: Never placed from 3 starts at track but has won once from three first up previously. Ended prep very well last start 2nd at Flemington down the straight. Probably not here?
Comments: We are expecting the ground to have improved to dead by this stage of the day. Generally the pattern of the day is clear, but even so, coming from the back normally isn’t an issue by the last at Caulfield. Complicate showed enough first up this prep to suggest he is ready to win while Le Bonsir is the runner with the best form this prep coming into the race and should be allowed to lead.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 13, 14
Strategy: Backing Complicate with a smaller bet on Le Bonsir.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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