Welcome to The Profits form guide for Cox Plate Day 2013 on Saturday 26 October. Well what a card we have in store. It starts slow with a 2YO race you can just simply ignore. The day will wrap up of course with the 2013 Cox Plate with It’s a Dundeel the slight favourite. Our top pick is Puissance De Lune, but it will be a tough affair after the scratching of Atlantic Jewel. We will be on track all day so stay tuned to twitter for any pattern updates. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 Savvy Nature
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 8 Speediness
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 9 Cameo
Lay of the Day
Moonee Valley Race 6 Not Listenin’tome
Best Place Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Speediness
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 6, 9, 11
Leg Two: 3, 6, 9, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 12
Leg Four: 2, 4, 8, 11, 14
*Betfair are giving a 50% Quaddie Boost at Moonee Valley today
Promotions
A quick summary of all the key promotion on offer around the bookies.
Topsport
MONEY BACK if your runner finishes 2nd or 3rd in ANY race on 8 race days throughout the Spring Carnival (maximum $100). *Important* You CAN bet more than one horse per race and they will refund more than one horse if you run 2nd and 3rd.
www.topsport.com.au
Betfair
50% Quaddie Boost (maximum bonus of $250)
Money Back if you run 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Cox Plate and the Drummond Golf Handicap ($25 max) on their Tote Extra (Best of 5) product.
http://betfair.com.au/promotions
Ladbrokes
Double Fixed Odds on the Cox Plate (maximum $50 bet). At time of posting Puissance De Lune is currently $5 enhanced to $10. It’s a Dundeel $4.20 enhanced to $8.4. Happy Trails $12 enhanced to $24.
www.ladbrokes.com.au
Betstar
Double Fixed Odds on the Cox Plate (maximum $50 bet). Needs to be placed between 1.30pm and 2.30pm AEDST
www.betstar.com.au
Sportsbet
Money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in the Cox Plate. Maximum $100 bet.
www.sportsbet.com.au
Centrebet
Place a win bet in any race at Moonee Valley and if your horse runs second to the favourite, Centrebet will refund your bet up to $100.
www.centrebet.com
Sportingbet
First bet of the day $20 refund if it doesn’t win.
www.sportingbet.com.au
Luxbet
Paying out the Bookies Best Price on the Cox Plate then adding 10% to it.
www.luxbet.com
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
2YO’s with no form? Save your money!
Confidence 0%
Moonee Valley Race 2
Vatican: Strong record at this track. Weight not much of an issue back in class today. Maps well enough from a poor barrier with only 2 real speed runners in the race. Every chance today.
Esprit De Bullet: Very solid record and has won 1/1 at this track. Maps nearer to the back than front today and will need a big run with this weight.. but has the ability.
Freereturn: Last two runs haven’t been impressive enough to win today. Goes well at track but needs to have improved 3 lengths today.
Canali: Huge improvement last start at Cranny with the horses hoofs back to best. Maps to lead from barrier 1 and will be very hard to run down.
Waltez: Hard to see the win at weights today.
Eight Bills: Two runs this prep not been good enough at weights to win this today. Maps ok.
The Minister: Never won in this class or placed at track.
Oamaru Princess: Continues to improve this prep. Ran well enough last start but needs to improve again.
Prussian Power: Second up run was solid behind Canali and meets 3kg better off today. Will be running on.
Comments: Vatican, Esprit De Bullet, Canali and Prussian Power are the four that appeal here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Canali on top from Vatican.
Moonee Valley Race 3
It Is Written: Disappointing last start and now top weight today off 60kg. Maps to need luck from barrier but has the ability.
The Peak: Disappointing run first up but did run on well enough. Weighted much better today but needs luck from barrier.
Go The Knuckle: Very disappointing run last start. Hard to see here.
Richie’s Vibe: People are jumping off him today but he was ridden too far toward off a trong tempo last start. Will get further back today and be running on. Should find best off a dead track as well.
Henwood: Only missed a place once from 9 starts at distance and has won here before. Never won in this class but ran 2nd both times. Weighted well and goes well first up. Will be running on and is one of the ones to beat.
Vibrant Rouge: Very strong win first up at course and distance. Maps very well today and will have no excuses.
Nearest To Pin: Been running very well over in Adelaide. Up in class today but weighted well enough and can run well to go close.
Such Hope: BIG run first up and equal weight today. Probably looking for the extra distance and can go forward or back. Maps very well and will be hard to beat.
Ventic: Hard to see measuring up here.
Smackdown: Two back close behind Shamal Wind and previous to that behind Hosting. Ignore last start and back in winable class. A chance. Maps well. Best found on a good track.
Arousing Suspicion: First up and best win was over 1400m at Caulfield by 4L. Value today.
Rich Jack: Won very well last start at Cranbourne spacing an easy lot. This is a big step up today but maps to lead or sit outside of leader from outside barrier and down 5kg. Form suggests a big chance today.
Comments: Several key chances here. One of the hardest races of the day.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Richie’s Vibe on top from Henwood. Arousing Suspicion the Spec of the race.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Voila Ici: On recent runs can’t see him finishing out the front with them. Would really need it slow or heavy today.
Bianmick: Ran well enough last start but the form out of that race hasn’t stacked up well.
Rothera: Ran very well 2nd up this prep 2nd but up 3.5kg today. Never won at distance is an issue.
Whisper Downs: Just ignore last start when too far back. First up run this prep was very solid and if reproduces a similar run off a hot tempo, then can finish strongly.
Hvasstan: Ran very well three back but since then hasn’t measured up and won’t be today.
Opinion: Talented horse who won very well three back over the 2400m distance. After that up in class and weight ran well enough but didn’t win. Shipped over here and now training under Waller. Weighted well enough and has also been Gelded. Maps VERY well and if the gelding did the trick, then will be VERY hard to beat.
Sea Galleon: Hard to see the win today on previous preps.
Veewap: Last two runs were solid without impressing. Not the best here.
Hioctdane: Coming over from Adelaide but hasn’t shown anything this prep. No thanks.
Phantom Brew: Big win two back but then found out last start. MUCH harder today.
Bel Thor: Ran on strongly last start at Cranbourne. Need to pass a wall of horses is the issue today. Probably better swoopers?
Fabriano: Ran on very strongly last start at Caulfield for a place AGAIN. Weighted nicely again today and is every chance ridden for luck.
Grand Sai Wan: Ran strong enough last two runs but has to ignore onwards again today. Weighted nicely.
Comments: Tough race on paper.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Opinion on top from Whisper Downs. Place bet on Fabriano as always.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Savvy Nature: Small field today. No excuse if doesn’t win this. This is a MUCH easier race today and is weighted fine. Distance suits and track condition shouldn’t be an issue. Will sit out the back but will be close enough.
Drago: Last two runs not good enough to get close to complacent and can’t see a change today.
Tips and Beers: Hard to get a hold of. Last start won fairly well at Caulfield but didn’t beat much. Looks the main danger but from barrier 1 may get an awkward position.
Storm Approach: Good win last start up in class over in Adelaide. Gamblin Guru came out and won during the week at Geelong also. Maps for a sit today.
Great Esteem: On last two starts isn’t going well enough to win this today.
Mantener La Fe: Can’t see him changing the form lines around Tips And Beers here.
All Rigged Up: This is a huge step up that shouldn’t even have been allowed!
Pinstripe Lane: Ran on very well behind Polanski who then came out and won again. The blowout chance in this race.
Comments: A lot of early speed in this race. This will suit Savvy Nature.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Savvy Nature to win. Pinstripe Lane looks a good place price today also.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Va Pensiero: Found best this prep when leading at Rosehill. Since then hasn’t been given a lead and doesn’t map to be given it today from barrier 10. Maps poorly today.
Ruud Awakening: Just hasn’t shown anything this prep. Hard to have.
Diamond Oasis: Lost a plate last start and jumped poorly. Should jump better today and position slightly further forward and be given every chance to win.
Thermal Current: Ran very well last start in the Rose for 7th. Will be taking a rails run today and sitting very close to the speed. Need luck to get out but is a big chance.
Red Magnet: Came back better than ever this prep but hasn’t beaten anything good. On first two runs will be leading this up on the rail and be very hard to pass.
Burnro: Won after being beaten by nearly 6L two back by Red Magnet. Just simply franks the Red Magnet run.
Consorting: Only ran fairly last start. Couldn’t have.
Not Listenin’tome: Fair amount of speccing around for this runner. Go forward from outside barrier and should get 1 out 1 back run. Every chance from here.
Essential Element: May be trying to push forward from outside barrier but not good enough.
Selectify: Only won a fair maiden. Hard to see the progression.
Schalot: Only won maiden by a nose. No thanks.
Comments: Not Listenin’tome looks massive unders today. A lot of early speed. Swoopers may get every chance today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Very keen on Red Magnet here. Diamond Oasis is the clear danger.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Tanby: Just not going well enough this prep. Hard to back here.
Sneak A Peek: Ran his best race to date last start behind Seville. Slightly back in class today and maps to have every chance from run today.
Tremec: Not going well at all this prep.
Precedence: Ran well enough last start but needs to improve significantly again. Weighted well enough.
Mourinho: Missed start, lost a plate and wasn’t allowed to lead it up last start. Will get it today and off previous form lines is going close off this weight today.
Raeburn: Going well enough but down from Queensland into this class. Hard to see the win.
Gotta Take Care: Absolutely Flying. Ran Sea Moon within 0.1L last start. Sea Moon would start $2 favourite here. need luck but is weighted to win.
Mujadale: Won a much easier race last start at Caulfield. Looks progressive but not this much!
Shoreham: Very disappointing run last start at Cranbourne. Down to 54kg today and off previous runs can’t be discounted.
Comments: A tough race with 3-4 top chances.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 6, 9, 11
Strategy: Sneak A Peek is the runner to be on here while Mourinho out the front will be hard to pass and deserves a smaller bet.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Second Effort: Hasn’t shown his best the last few runs. Needs more rain and won’t get it.
December Draw: Just not going well enough to win this today.
Speediness: Weighted very well today compared to a few others here. From barrier two is mapping more forward than last start as advised to Stewards. Rates to win.
Lord Of Brazil: Worse off at the weights today and will be far back. Others better here.
Malavio: Up 6kg today and others much better weighted.
Blackie: Very tough run last start but giving up 1.5kg today to Speediness who will be positioning further forward from a better barrier. He has the ability, but needs to improve again to win.
Transporter: Not going well enough to place here.
Rain Drum: Maps to lead this up today and generally sets a hot enough tempo out front. Up to 59kg today is the real tester.
Sacred Falls: Weighted 2.5kg better off today against Toydini and significantly better at weights vs Malavio on last few runs. Will have to come from a LONG way back is the massive issue but has the ability.
Toydini: The best runner in the race, he will be getting far back but you know he will be running on. Boban franked the form last week.
Comments: Two stand outs for mine
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 9, 10
Strategy: Speediness on top to win from Toydini
Moonee Valley Race 9
Catkins: I love this horse but up to an unknown distance when best runs have been on lesser distances and at the top of the weights, Not my on top pick today sadly from bad barrier.
Lake Sententia: Ran on very well last start behind Fire Up Fifi from the back. Will be getting out the back again today but from barrier 2 they could change up the tactics a little. May get a rails run and need luck to get out. Has the ability to win.
Dolly Dolly: Ran on very well the first two runs this prep. Up in weight today and barrier hurts.
Epingle: Got galloped on first up so that is really a forgive run. Goes well at distance but needs luck.
Oriental Ruby: Just not going well enough to consider.
Cameo: Weighted to win today. Much better off than Lucky Lago today. Needs to get in early is the only issue. Last win was early in this year over distance beating home ROYAL DESCENT.
Two Sugars: Very strong front run last start at Caulfield. Should either lead or take a sit today. Should have won last start in a low time. Not good enough to win.
Kazanluk: Too far back last start at Flemington and should sit mid-field today.. Down 3.5kg today. Means she is 6kg better off against Catkins today. Extra distance suits… rates to win at weights.
Lucky Lago: Ignore last start run when just too far back. Look to previous two runs. Beat home Queenstown two back and weighted well today from barrier 5. Maps very well.
Porcellanus: Speedmapped to try and put some speed into this race. No chance.
Sensational Report: Ignore last start run and look to two previous. Down in weight and inside barrier gives her a chance of being given a ride for luck. Can place.
Zombie Dancer: Didn’t measure up in this class last prep and won’t today.
Baluch: Ran well enough at Cranbourne last start. This is a HUGE step up. No thanks. Maiden only winner.
Comments: Tough open race. Speed map has this wide open price wise.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 12
Strategy: Cameo from Kazanluk. Sensational Report is at very least a place bet at the price having placed 2 from 2 in class at this track this prep.
Moonee Valley Race 10 – Cox Plate
1. Green Moon 59kg (Barrier 12)
Never won with this weight previously and is better suited outside of WFA races. Could be used as a pace maker to give the other Williams runners a strong tempo early. Did run well enough first up over 1400m but hasn’t shown enough to be winning this. Best on Good going.
Verdict: Grand Final is the Melbourne Cup, not this. Shocked if he wins this.
2. Happy Trails 59k (Barrier 2)
Over the correct odds today. Goes well at the track and has been set for this distance all campaign. Last start ridden for luck got a very solid ride by Dunn to victory. Barrier 2 selected to ride for luck again and is actually better weighted today against Fiorente and PDL.
Verdict: Genuine chance who maps very well needing luck.
3. Fiorente 59kg (Barrier 15)
Has positioned out the back of the field in all runs this prep and overall last four runs in general. Did position closer than midfield in the Melbourne Cup though and ran on very well. Outside barrier certainly hurts for positioning. Has every chance but in all honesty, could be a better horse for the Melbourne Cup.
Verdict: Better suited to a longer straight and will have to pass a wall of horses going wide to get the win. Has the ability to win but is certainly shorter than I would want to take. May simply just be a saver option.
4. Foreteller 59kg (Barrier 9)
Late nomination who three runs back beat home Puissance De Lune at Flemington over 1600m by a nose. Last start breezed past Super Cool with no issues and finished 4L behind Atlantic Jewel. Most people were suggesting AJ at her best was a 3L better horse than all of these and on ratings it was close to that. That gives Foreteller a genuine chance for me.
Verdict: Only accepted after the rumour was going around about Atlantic Jewel being a non-runner. That was their first win. The horse has the ability to run well and go close. Big question if he can find his best around a turn.
5. Side Glance 59kg (Barrier 1)
International hope who hasn’t won since mid 2012 over 1700m on Good at Epsom. Did run on well the next start behind a handy horse called Frankel but after that has always found a few too good. Every chance last start losing by 2L and previous to that didn’t show much in the Prince of Wales. Not the best here.
Verdict: Other international runners appeal more.
6. Seville 59kg (Barrier 10)
Tough win in The Metrop.. but the next three who finished behind wouldn’t be winning here. Speedmap for this horse is hard to figure out. Has the ability to fit forward today but from the barrier, I have Seville going mid to back of field. Doesn’t look a top hope here.
Verdict: Tactics well be the key to this runner. Not sure can win with any tactics.. but can go close to placing with the right run.
7. Rekindled Interest 59kg (Barrier 6)
Ran ok first up over 1200m but then was poor in the Epsom off a strong tempo. Goes around well enough at this track but just isn’t Cox Plate winning material at the weights.
Verdict: Won’t be winning this.
8. Puissance De Lune 59kg (Barrier 8)
Never runs a bad race. Last start was by far his best run all prep when put down almost identical sectionals to Fawkner over 2000m off a hot pace out front. Did beat home Fawkner JUST and they were the only two out the front who stuck on. Barrier 8 looks PERFECT today and you can see him sitting 3-4 back on the outside hitting the line very hard. Top chance.
Verdict: Genuine horse who gives his all. Will go very close and maps well.
9. Masked Marvel 59kg (Barrier 5)
Progressive all prep but is better over further distances than this and seems to be set for the Melbourne Cup. Looks unders here today and will be running on from the back.
Verdict: Too far back. Better swoopers in this.
10. Mull of Killough 59kg (Barrier 4)
Unlike some of the other runners, Is here for the Cox Plate. Best runs have been over 1600-200m distances. Just ignore last start run and look to two and four back. Doesn’t have a massive turn of speed but can be ridden on from the 800m and just keep producing solid sectionals.
Verdict: Tactics the key. Looks a blowout chance at big odds. At least worth a few bucks.
11. It’s A Dundeel 57.5kg (Barrier 13)
First up run in the Memsie wasn’t very impressive when had every chance and couldn’t show enough for mine. Next start in a slowly run Underwood mapped well enough and snuck his nose out to win. In the big races has always gone close but it’s hard to forget Reliable Man winning the Queen Eliz last prep over him and Happy Trails just 0.5L behind. How much has that set back with the hoof issue affected him also? Then also the plate that has been fitted.. how much ground does he lose? Is certainly a big chance, but with all these factors, and the price, can you really have on top? Outside barrier also hurts.
Verdict: Is his best on a corner track? Beaten by Super Cool in the Vase last year here. Going much better than that run but still a concern. Can go close but barrier draw did hurt and limit tactics.
12. Super Cool 57.5kg (Barrier 14)
Convincingly beaten last start by AJ and Foreteller. Gains half a KG today against Foreteller but on previous four runs this prep, several horses here have always found a way to beat him.
Verdict: Can’t see SC beating a number home of these home.
14. Long John 49.5kg (Barrier 11)
Just how good is he? People are suggesting ‘there are no Pierro’s or All Too Hard’s in this field’. Well, I tend to disagree. Long John has progressed significantly all prep and has shown a great deal of talent. His sectionals have been solid ridden forward or back and with no real pace runners in the race, could sit out the front and find a moderate pace on. Seems to be screaming out for 2000m and is a big chance.
Verdict: It all depends on the tempo and how good the ones behind are. Has a chance and money has been coming for him.
15. Shamus Award 49.5kg (Barrier 3)
Can’t be ignored. Ran Divine Calling at course to a head and we know how well Divine Calling did last start behind Long Jonh. Shamus Award also ran on very well in that race from the back and can certainly position further forward from barrier 3. Some maps suggest Shamus and Long John could be leading this up.
Verdict: Looks to be suited by the up in distance and isn’t the worst at the odds.. but even if improves probably does find one or two too good.
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 8, 11, 14
The Key Chances
In no particular order, I have moved all of the runners into one of four categories. Just to explain what it all means, just because a runner is in the Medium Chance pile doesn’t necessary mean they aren’t a good bet. It means they need a fair bit of luck and the right circumstances.
High Chance
Puissance De Lune
Long John
Happy Trails
It’s a Dundeel
Fiorente
Medium Chance
Shamus Award
Mull Of Killough
Foreteller
Low Chance
Side Glance
Super Cool
Seville
Minimal Chance
Green Moon
Rekindled Interest
Masked Marvel
Cox Plate 2013 Tips
Top Pick – Puissance De Lune
He has done nothing wrong all prep. The majority of the key chances will be sitting behind him in running and if they can out sprint him, then they are simply better horses. He maps well and has continued to rate better as the prep has gone along. If the form around Fawkner is to go off, then he comes into this ready to win.
Best Roughie – Happy Trails
The Turnbull win was brave and he was given a perfect ride. A repeat of that performance goes close here and the price is simply overs compared to the others in the race he beat home. Sure, I have a soft spot for him, but when you look at the ROI of this horse (who beat Fawkner in the Emirate’s last year), he keeps delivering.
Top 10
Puissance De Lune
It’s a Dundeel
Long John
Fiorente
Happy Trails
Foreteller
Mull of Killough
Shamus Award
Super Cool
Green Moon
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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