Welcome to The Profits form for Cranbourne Cup day. Well how good was yesterday? Long John! AMAZING! We had one of our best days all year, if not our best. It was a great feeling being on track and I hope you all enjoyed it. Our affiliates took a beating which means you are all winning which is great! Just the two races that are city class tomorrow at Cranbourne and I am fairly confident betting into both. As always, I’m looking to bet into a few horses that I have singled out as the potential winners. I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Cranbourne Cup Race 8
Pakal: will get every chance today. This horse showed first up that he is best on a GOOD track and should get it here today. Weighted well enough with a sit. Could blow these away if reproduces first up run.
Voila Ici: Goes well on a Good track but last two runs have been horrible. Hard to see.
Mourinho: Surprised many when winning a Group 3 last start very well. Up 5kg today for that and back to a Good surface which isn’t where his best is.. likes a bit of wetness in the ground… but still will run very well. Won 4 from 6 at distance.
Bit Of Hell: Disappointing the first two runs this prep before returning well last start. Looked to enjoy the slow track. Won’t get that today. Barrier a massive issue. Never missed a place at this distance.
Shoreham: Good win first up this prep but next two runs just found a few too good. Will happen again today.
Sertorius: Last start run was very solid and was ranked by Blackie’s 3rd behind Solzhenitsyn yesterday. Is he really wanting the 2000m? Could be value and peaking.
Flying Hussler: Huge win last start in the Benalla Cup.. early sectionals were very solid and just kept on with the job. Up 3kg today hurts a little but all things considered will be hard to pass.
Star Rolling: The short priced favourite, he is going very well.. but did last start really justify being this short today? I’m not convinced on that. Should go close.
Talent Show: Not going anywhere near well enough.
Zabisco: Very disappointing this prep. Not in this.
Cuban Sunday: Not going well enough to place here.
Lord Durante: Continues to run well this prep but won’t be winning this.
Vizhaka: Not up to this class on last few runs.
Bel Thor: Seems to be peaking. Last start run suggests could run well here.
Love For Ransom: Can’t see her winning this.
Quick Bond: Not going well enough.
Comments: I have this down to four runners in Pakal, Flying Hussler, Star Rolling and Mourinho. I took Mourinho on last start and I will again today due to not getting the easy front run today. Star Rolling can only ever be a saver here for me. Too many question marks. I’m confident Pakal improves lengths on a very Good surface and he will get that today while Flying Hussler has been incredible and is peaking. There is a 5th that could threaten in Sertorius but I’m keener on the others.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: Big bet on Pakal, Smaller bet Flying Hussler. Combine that with a saver bet on Star Rolling and I think you are getting a great ‘book’ for the race with good odds on the wins.
Cranbourne Race 9
General Truce: Ignore last start and look to two and three runs back when ran VERY well. Weight isn’t the main issue here.. it’s getting the right run. Big chance.
Prizum: Suited to much further distances than this. Hard to see him measuring up at this distance… but does like the track.
Canali: First four runs this prep not good enough to place here.
Dash For Viz: Hasn’t gone around for a while and last prep runs were solid without winning. Only 1 win from 8 runs at this distance and 1 win from 6 first up is the issue. Weighted well enough.
Eight Bills: Not on first up run. Others better here.
Decircles: Good horse who finally got a win last prep. Been off a while now and will have been wound up for this. Never won on a Good track but to be fair has placed 5/6 and always goes well. Looks the one to beat.
Queen Delight: Never placed on a good track. Prefers it wet.
Cavallo Nero: Poorest run was last start when missed it. Back in class today and should run well.. but did peak a few runs back and hard to see finding best today.
Such Hope: Ran ‘ok’ from the back first up. On previous prep form should be pushing forward and can run well. Barrier an issue.
Don’t Wake Me: Ran well enough first up. Needs to improve again.
Prussian Power: Good first up but this is MUCH harder.
Scelto: Not suited to distance. Hard to have. Never won first up.. is 2/2 at track though.
Wind In His Hair: Not in this class.
Comments: I have this race down to two in Decircles and General truce
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: Backing Decircles and lesser bet on General Truce
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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