Welcome to The Profits form for Cranbourne on Friday 11 October 2013. Well we are well and truly into Spring and the cream is rising to the top. While the Best Bet just missed a place on Wednesday, Lady Antebellum ensured a nice day with a good win at $9s ($14s if you got on the night before when posted). Not getting crazy tonight as the fields are no where near what we are getting tomorrow, but there are two that stick out and need to be discussed. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Race 6 Keep De Rose
Best Value
Race 7 Tycoon Express
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Cranbourne Race 6
Streets of Seattle: Ran VERY well last start behind Crafty Cruiser who has won well since. Down in class and back to a horse suitable distance… Big issue is that the best two runs recently have been on heavy tracks.
Rememba Howe: Seems like a stab in the dark. 31 starts and never ran this distance before. Last prep in similar class ran very well at Flemington. Has never won on Good or Dead.
Bonne Nuit: Better on slow or heavy surfaces. Did run well last start but barrier and surface will hurt.
Innocent Lady: Went close three back over 2500m behind Gotta Take Care which is strong form but very inconsistent mare.
Keep De Rose: Very good win last start at Caulfield and not much of a penalty today either. May be a little harder to lead today but should position well.
Green Roller: Weighted well enough today being stepped up in distance again today. May need to get lucky to getg a good enough spot early. Good runner but progressive enough?
Keyarna Blue: Made big mistakes the first three runs this prep. Is a much better horse than we have seen. If finds best wins but that is a big if.
Miss Outshine: Won three in a row this prep including beating Livery. Times are solid and handles any surface. Testing material today.
Warwarick Goes ok first up. Last prep ran on ok but not sure measures up in this.
Comments: Keep De Rose isn’t facing any better level of class today and can win again. Keyarna Blue the main danger if returns in best form.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Keep De Rose to win
Cranbourne Race 7
A tough race for a BM-70 with some quality runners.
Stick On: Resuming today after running a brave 3rd last start in harder company at Flemington. Wet track seems no issue and seems progressive. One of the bottem weights thanks to claim.
The Travelling Man: Two preps back ran well over 1000m without ‘threatning’ too much. Back down in class heavily today first up and maps to go forward from outside barrier also. If returns at top of game can go close.. but that is a big if?
Too Deadly: Was switched to swooping last prep which seemed to suit without getting a win. Ran close at MV twice during prep. Only wins have come on Good is an issue.
Tycoon Express: Last prep was very solid when winning over 1000m at Sandown, running a forgive run next start, two ignore runs on heavy and then did a lot run, got blocked, lost ground when went close in Open company at Caulfield. You have to assume with so many front runners that the speed will be on and if he is at his best, he has every chance against these. He misses starts almost every time so don’t be surprised.
Hard Romp: Suited if we somehow get a slow or worse track today. Only issue is getting a good spot in the run.
Comments: Stick On looks the one to beat but with such speed expected, I can’t ignore Tycoon Express
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Tycoon Express E/W with a saver on Stick On
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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