Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 1 January 2014! Happy new year to all our followers. Hopefully you are well and truly over that hangover from last night and ready to get the year off to a BANG. I certainly am! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Flemington Race 7 Electric Fusion
Flemington Race 6 Decircles
Flemington Race 8 Blonic Hill
Best Place Bet
Flemington Race 3 Kaiser Sun
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 8, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Bold Eavey: Two strong enough runs recently in easier company. Weighted ok today but needs to find much more to win this.
Mokoro: Missed start and bolted home to just miss beaten by a handy type in Harquila. Weighted VERY WELL Today and only issue is if she will go well enough down the straight.
Pindan Pearl: All three runs last prep were solid and ran close to decent runners. Weighted very well considering the class she resumes in today. Does seem to be over the odds if looks well in the yard.
Paddy’s Gem: Beat home Black Cavs sister first up. How good a race was that? No idea… but can’t hurt to beat Black Cav’s sister for a form line. Probably over the odds right now. One thing is clear… if she is fighting out the finish, she has the heart to win.
Zeffiretta: Runs well down the straight as proved by last start run 3rd at track when jumped awkwardly. Up 3kg today which certainly hurts if you ask me. Can run well but I can’t have on top.
Cobblestones:Only won a fair maiden leading all the way on dead. I’d be a little shocked to see her win this.
Hayite: Strong enough maiden win then 5L off it last start at MV. Equal weight today… needs to improve lengths.
Leaps and Bounds: Looks to be best suited on 2YO form to wet tracks. On first up good track win can’t win this IMO.
Spirits Dance: Finall won her maiden and hasn’t won since but last start was a strong enough 3rd to Apollo’s Choice who was progressive during the Spring and was unlucky not to win at Flemington. Didn’t handle the straight back at 2YO.
Giacinta: Couldn’t win her maiden last start.
I’m An Outoftowner: 0.4L off Paddy’s Gem last start. 2.5kg better off today. Beats her home on weights alone.
Comments: Finding it hard to put anyone else but Mokoro on top. Not a huge fan of this race either way though.
Strategy: Mokoro to win.
Flemington Race 2
Danestroem: Won 3 in a row now. Back in class today and up to 1400m which does suit. Barrier 13 shouldn’t matter too much and should get a nice enough position. Only issue is up 5kg today and is giving Gig 4kg today for 1.8L at Caulfield.
You’re Discreet: Not sure what to make of her. Goes ok first up and at distance but best has been seen over further and on wetter ground if you ask me.
Gig: Weighted well today. Always runs a solid race and maps very well from barrier 4 today. Won 2 from 4 at this track in the past. Looks to be peaking.
Miss Midleton: Weighted much better than Danestroem today after jumping slowly last start. Barrier hurts and will struggle to get a good position is the only issue.
Rayhan: Last two runs have been solid. Ran on well to win in an only fairly ran race last start and looks progressive. Weighted to win off 52kg.
Balaclava Lady: Strong start to finish win at Geelong last start but needs to reserve form big time to win this. Never placed from 4 tries at track.
Five All: Down 2.5kg today after a 0.2L 2nd to beach Front at MV. Going super this prep and will run well.
Thorn Star: Just ignore last start and look to previous runs. Continutes to down well and down to 52.5kg today is hard to ignore.
Crimson Lady: Disappointing runs this prep but first up run 5th at Caulfield over 1400m was solid without impressing. Not sure what to make.
Hamam: Good run 2nd to Kiss me Ketut last start but is poorly weighted against Rayhan today.
First Print: Not going well enough this prep to threaten.
Melting Moment: Ran hom ewell behind Kiss Me Ketut and Hamam last start but is up in weight today and doesn’t come into it very well.
Cognac Girl: Always runs well but is a non-winner. Step up today doesn’t look good enough.
Chit Chat: Poor run last start. Could push further forward to have a chance.
Comments: Quite a few chances in this one at the weights.
Strategy: Rayhan on top from Gig.
Flemington Race 3
Eight Bills: Ran on well last start without threatening to win. Equal weight today vs Nich Court and gains 1.5k on Kaiser Sun. If improves can go close. Better suited to Good ground which we should get by R3. Huge issue is all the front runners out wide.
Fab Fevola: Big run last start at course and distance in much harder company. Back in class but also up 5kg which hurts. Better suited to Good ground today and if produces a similar run will be going very close.
Nicholls Court: Always runs a solid race with the last four starts being 1.3L, 1.3l, 1.3L and 1.5L defeats with the latest two at Flemington down the straight. Good place price today.
Regalmania: Very disappointing first up but was lame after the race. Strangely back down to 1000m today and goes well 2nd up.
Emboldened: Hard runner to place. Never won here but goes ok first up. Last prep looked country grade only.
My Survivor: Disappointed last start. Hard to see the improvement to win this.
Spartini: Not going close on first up run. Even if improves can’t see winning.
Kaiser Sun: Big progression shown with a massive win here first up. Up 1.5kg today and gives a few some KGs but is hard to ignore. The one to beat clearly.
Ogunde: Strong enough win last start in weaker company if you ask me. Can run well today if reproduces that run.
Primitive Man: Has won first up but better runs have been over further. Weighted well today though.
Sorisam: Last two runs have been solid with those runners going on in preps who finished ahead of him. Weighted nicely. Could place.
Reel Way:Very disappointing run last start and can’t go better today.
Riviera Red: Under the radar here today off 52kg. A 2nd to Henwood and down 5kg today first up is solid form. How good will he go down the straight? I like the odds.
Comments: Several ‘chances’ but the stand out is the favourite.
Strategy: I could go a number of runners here on the E/W but I can’t go past Kaiser Sun to Place at the prices. It just represents massive value off that first run. I will also be having a small go at Riviera Red.
Flemington Race 4
Amaethon: Surprised last start positioned on speed where the winner came from also. Equal weight today and equal distance, can run well but not sure that is the form race you want to be coming out of.
Shenzhou Steeds: Never won first up and won once at track. Better over further and hasn’t shown us enough for a long time.
Cellarmaster: Has never really measured up so to speak over in Melbourne. Goes well, don’t get me wrong, but just fails to get that elusive win. Hard to see the win today but did run well enough first up to go well.
He’s Your Man: French Listed winner who ran 2nd to Lost In The Moment in WFA-LR which is massive form lines over 2400m. Never ran below 2000m so unknown factor. Could blow them away. The speed will be on for this runner at least.
Maules Creek: Never won firs tup but has won at distance twice. Weighted well enough but may be wanting further. Hasn’t won since early 2012 on slow over 2000m.
Hotham Heights: He always runs a nice race but fails to get the win. Hasn’t won since 2012 and off last start hard to see turning that around.
The New Boy: Bossy didn’t ride him correctly last start. You have to put the pressure on and try and out-stay the field with him. Down to 52kg today with Murphy on, We can only they ride him correctly. Win wouldn’t shock but odds are hard to take?
Anlon: Touched up at start but settled only slightly further back than he would have anyway. Alot of people saying he would have won easily last start, but sorry he wouldn’t have. He still would have lost (would have ran 3rd IMO). Down 2kg today and up in class, he will have no excuses today. Can win, but incorrect odds today.
Prince Pedro: Strong 1600m winner last start and up in class again today down to 52kg. Can win fromn this weight.
Comments: Very weak race if you ask me. He’s Your Man has to be given every chance today off a hot speed.
Strategy: He’s Your Man to win.
Flemington Race 5
Hurdy Gurdy Man: Last four runs this prep have all been solid on different grounds. 60kg again today and has never won from 4 tries at this track. Doesn’t seem a load of class in this though so can go well.
Unchain My Heart: Last three runs have been solid! Last start reared at start which cost a better position and could have cost her the race. Barrier hurts today but can run well.
Crafty Cruiser: He is just very hard to catch on his day. Last start blocked for runs and that was it. Previous run behind Caravan Rolls On was big. Can run well.
Thubiaan: Very disappointing last start. Can improve but not sure what to make of the run. Has won at track.
Flashy Fella: After a strong Cup win has just gone backwards and backwards. Can’t see winning this.
Outback Joe: Two runs this prep have been fairly average at best. Up to a better distance today but can he improve 3-4 lengths? Doubt it.
Angola: Just ignore last start when ridden to lead (not suited) over a lesser distance. Up in distance today suits and will be ridden further back hopefully.
Heaven’s Riches: Never placed first up and takes a while to get into rhythem in preps. hard to see a win but did win GP3 at $151-1 in 2012. Two back run over 3000m was very solid.
Leonardo Express: Disappointed last start after a fairly strong win two back. Hard to see at the weights today against others out of Pelicano race.
Blazing Dragon: Had her chances last start but wasn’t good enough. Down 2kg today suits but needs to find a length or two today.
McNulty: Meow. Couldn’t win last start and up 3kg today which hurts big time. Previous start 3rd to Handsome and before that Leonardo Express beat him. Can’t see it here.
Callmedan: Last start 2nd to Handsome but 2kg worse off today. Hard to have.
By His Design: Blocked for runs last start. Improvement wouldn’t shock but can’t see winning this.
Comments: Horrible race to start the Quaddie. Tough. Going with a runner on the E/W who always runs well and has placed 7 from 15 at this track.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10
Strategy: Crafty Cruiser on the E/W.
Flemington Race 6
Ethiopia: What can I say? Never placed at track from 5 goes. Never run at this distance and is a 1600m+ horse. You just couldn’t even consider him.
Sea Lord: HUGE run last start and just beaten in the end. Down 1kg today and if the pace is on then you can expect him to be the one to beat going to the post. Big chance.
Addiction To Rock: Never run at track previously. Last start winf rom the back was solid over in Adelaide. Down 1kg today and should run home well. Only issue is barrier for mine as will need to shuffle over to get behind the speed.
By The Way: Solid horse whose two runs this prep have been nice without winning. Can run well.
Casabel: Not going well enough to win this.
Decircles: 5kg better off today against Flamberge for two back run at Caulfield. Ran at course and distance last start at equal weight and won well. Can repeat again today.
Essay Raider: Beaten fair and square two back and then last start beat the same horse he beat three back. Goes ok down the straight as proved by 4 back but needs to find much more.
Morant: 1kg better off agianst Decircles today but last start disappointed at Caulfield. Can run well at weights.
Solsay: Continues to progress this prep. Last start went close without winning in a very fast time at Caulfield. Equal weight today but never placed down straight (5th 2L end of last prep).
Belfast Boy: Won 3 from 10 at track and goes well down the straight. Not sure he is going anywhere near good enough this prep. .
Flamberge: SUPER disappointing run last start down the straight. Poorly weighted today but a win wouldn’t shock.
Comments: The straight track can give a surprise or two. Going with a proven runner weighted well again today.
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 6, 11
Strategy: Decircles to win. Smaller bet on Sea Lord.
Flemington Race 7
Whisper Downs: Only been fair this prep to be honest. He goes well but won’t be winning this. Could place.
Vatuvei: Up in distance today will suit but didn’t show us enough last start to suggest can go close to winning this at weights.
Keep Cool: Can’t see him reversing the order on weights today. Could place at best.
Index Linked: Got the win in fairly decent fashion last start in easier company. Down 1.5kg today suits but what did he beat? Not much.
Electric Fusion: Up 2.5kg today and in similar class after a HUGE win last start by 5.3L at course and distance. Hard to see him getting beaten off that run. Barrier helps.
Extra Zero: He was no match for Index Linked last start when ridden faster out front than two runs back. Does meet both Index Linked and Electric Fusion better at weights but he will have a few out the front with him.
Garud: Been off a while but his run last start behind Pelicano had merit. Goes well here and at distance without winning.
Gottino: Weighted well today but 5.3L isn’t possible to be made up today you have to think.
Angelology: Blocked for run last start but not much better off at weights. Can run well but needs to find 2 lengths.
Simmering: Just ignore last start when had respiratory issues. On previous prep form he could actually test these. At the weights, I’m happy to include in Quad and have a VERY small go.
Altonio: Super Dooper disappointing the last two runs. Pulled up with irregular heart rate last start at MV. Weighted nicely on three back run.
Comments: Wide in Quad as normal but Electric Fusion does look a massive price over $2s.
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: Electric Fusion to win.
Flemington Race 8
Hirad: Got away with murder out front last start at course and distance but just couldn’t hold them out. Up 4kg today hurts if you ask me even if down in class. Can go ok.
Defiant Angel: Last two runs have been solid enough. Weighted ok today but needs to find a length that it hasn’t had the last few runs.
Murcielaga: Disappointed as favourite last start at Caulfield. Previous form hasn’t worked out very well. Weighted poorly.
Longeron: Big start to finish run last start sitting just off the pace. Claim of 3kg is key today down to 56kg and is every chance if you ask me.
Edgewood: Meets Longeron 1.5kg worse off today for being beaten 0.3L. At weights is hard to see the improvement but can’t ignore.
Great Game: Ran on nicely at MV last start to run a close 4th. Runs even better 2nd up on rcords and this race is down in class while he is down 2kg. Rates well.
Faith ‘N’ Belief: Only fair run last start when you consider the pace meant he should have gone close. Hard to have.
Bian Divine: Ran well last start. Down 4kg today but up in class. Barrier hurts to get a good position.
Blonic Hill: Weighted to win today off 52kg after claims. Is down 6.5kg for a 2L defeat to Gracious Prospect who would be going close here today. Looks progressive enough.
Galway Warrior: Last start beaten by Tyanna who is a bit of a cat. Can’t see this improvement.
Hard As Nails: Maiden only winner. Really can’t see this improvement.
Bobcats: Ran well enough last start but at weights compared to Blonic Hill is hard to have.
Chosen Son: Form doesn’t read well enough to suggest can win here.
Comments: Two stand out for mine here
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11
Strategy: Blonic Hill on top from Longeron
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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