Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 1 March 2014. Summer is gone! Autumn is now in full swing and it’s just under 3 weeks until the Sydney carnival is up and running. Last night we got our Best Bet home at MV and Wednesday saw a huge result with 4 from 5. Last week our Best Bet was outdone but Moment of Change delivered as our Next Best. Hopefully we can continue the winning ways today on what appears to be a tough card at Flemington. I generally can’t find much ‘value’ around at bigger odds, but keep an eye on twitter as you know I will report any ‘overs’ i find 10 minutes before a race. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Flemington Race 8 Couldn’t Agreemore
I was keen on him early in the week and took the $9s on offer including mentioning him on Twitter. Those odds are long gone with $6s fixed best around, this price is still value on my ratings. I do feel you may get better odds closer to the jump on Betfair though as these South Australian jumpers generally do drift. I’ve been waiting for them to send him back to Melbourne and after that first up run, I’m convinced he is ready for the big leagues.
Flemington Race 4 Angels Beach
Did everything right first up but did find the 1200m a touch longer than optimal first up. Will be fitter today, back to the 1100m and down the straight which we know she handles. We are getting an inflated price due to the potential of first up runner Elite Elle who has never proven herself down the straight – something I’m always willing to take on in a horse who has gone around that many times.
Best Place Bet
Flemington Race 2 Commanding Time
Impressed me last start winning at a distance I didn’t think suited or he was ready for coming back 2nd up off a long injury. Small field today and while it is a competitive field, there are two horses who at their best couldn’t beat him home. I think he is the best horse off form in the race while there does look to be one or two who have the talent to progress past him. The place bet looks safe and a great price.
Value runners on the card today
Flemington Race 9 Tanby
Flemington Race 3 Macedonian
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6
Back a horse in the Australian Guineas OR in the Hobartville Stakes and if it runs 2nd or 3rd, Refund up to $100 maximum.
20% Quaddie Payout BONUS at Flemington (up to $500).
Unencumbered boosted to $4 in the Silver Slipper – Maximum $50 bet
Money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in the Australian Guineas – Maximum $50 bet
Boosted Australian Guineas First 4 Pool – Guaranteed $500,000 pool
Unencumbered boosted to $4 in the Silver Slipper – Maximum $50 bet
If your runner in R2 or R3 at Flemington tomorrow runs 2nd, you will be awarded a bonus bet equal to your stake up to a maximum of $50. First bet only. Fixed odds only.
Betfair – Power of Five Promotion
You can Opt into Two of the Five promotions.
1. More Bang For Your Buck:- 25% boost on Huckelbuck in Australian Guineas (Max Stake $25 – Tote Extra product).
2. Quaddie Boost:- 25% boost on Rosehill Quaddie (Maximum bonus of $200 over promotion)
3. Bjorn Again:- Back Unencumbered and if the horse is UNPLACED, money back (Max Stake $25 – Tote Extra product).
4. Rosehill Runner Up:- Money back for second in Hobartville Stakes (Max Stake $25 – Tote Extra Product).
5. Ashes to Ash:- Australia boosted to $3.50 in the final test vs South Africa (Max Stake $25)
Money back for 2nd or 3rd in all Sydney Group Ones this Autumn Carnival (max back up to $100)
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Rosehill Race 6
The Hobartville Stakes are much wider open than the Odds suggest. Yes El Roca is favourite and yes El Roca deserves to be favourite off first up run.. but looks ‘under the true odds’.
Romantic Touch is the horse I want to be on today. Beat Zoustar at 2YO-GP1. Beat Savvy Nature over 1550m by 7L at 2YO. Showed first up from the back that he is back to his best. 1.5kg better off compared to Dissident and El Roca today from a better barrier today, he should position further forward and be very hard to beat.
Strategy: Sportsbet Money Back Promo for 2nd or 3rd helps a lot here. I’m tempted to back El Roca with this and then back Romantic Touch with the Betfair Promo plus the stake I want on. This gives us a clear advantage IMO. I don’t think El Roca goes unplaced today.
Flemington Race 1
Eloping: First two runs from start to finish very very solid. Next start 2nd 2.8L to Earthquake.. when you consider how much she won by in the Blue Diamond.. Eloping has to be the favourite here. massive chance.
Hostwin Pegasus: Only run was a 3.3L 2nd to Law. Wasn’t a bad ride. Hawkes yard pulled him down here for a reason. Don’t ignore fully.
Beau Rada: Ran just ‘ok’ first up but can’t see the improvement today to beat all of these.
Alaska: Fancied first up last prep but didn’t show us much. Did he just not handle the straight? Not sure but I can’t forgive to win this type of race.
Bullpit: Trialed well enough at Cranbourne winning well enough. First Speed ‘n’ Power bred horse I have seen go around so unknown for me.
Husson Eagle: Showed us a fair bit in the trial. Breeding is solid enough. Can run a race.
Bring Me The Maid: Fair enough trial. Could place.
More Radiant: The obvious danger. Trial beat a fairly handy bunch – But that was a trial and this is a race. Also, Bossy is going very average at the moment.
Comments: Eloping looks a great price all things considered here.
Strategy: Eloping to win.
Flemington Race 2
Backstedt: Last two runs have been fairly average to be honest. Up to top weight today and not sure he is going well enough after that Christmas break.
Commanding Time: Enjoyed a much harder tempo out front last start and flew home. Impressed me considering the distance. Up to 1700m, will be even more suited today as well. 1 run for a 2nd at track back in 2012 and looks to be back to his best. Can win.
Woakwine: Big step up in class today but two back beat Under The Hat who isn’t a mug and is probably similar class on Xavi. Last start 4L win on slow which suggests his best is on a slow.. but won 4 placed 3 from 10 on Good also. Can’t count this bloke out.
Xavi: Been running ‘well’ all prep especially here but never won from 5 starts and 7 tries at this class either. Weighted ok but needs to find 2 lengths.
The Big Steel: All things considered his run last start was solid at course and distance off a slowish tempo out front. Be better 3rd but but others preferred. Looks to be speed on.
Saint or Sinner: Way up in class today. Only down 2kg. Oliver off Boss on is a disadvantage. Barrier 4 helps today so will get a nice sit 2-3 back on outside you would expect. Can run a solid race, but did Little Bro make the form look only fair last weekend?
Waxing: Showed enough over in Ireland at 2 and 3. Looks to be a tough stayer who could measure up first up off the low weight today. Hard to ignore but also hard to back first up.
Soaked: Fair enough win last start at Seymour but this is a massive step up in class. Never measured up at this class yet but weighted ok. Meets Saint or Sinner 1.5kg better off today for 0.1L loss 3 back over 1420. Doesn’t deserve to be longest odds.
Comments: I keep coming back to Commanding Time. Very happy to have a go at this price.
Strategy: Commanding Time to place looks the bet here.
Flemington Race 3
Prince of Penzance: Ridden further forward the last two starts than his best spots if I’m to be honest. I have been against him all prep as well. Equal weights with main threats today and is a big chance.. but will the horse have the turn of foot required at this distance? Seemed to not enjoy the full 2400m to me and extra 200m could be an issue. In a 10 horse race, I’d like to see them try get off the rail or ride at the back.
Cooldini: Jumped poorly last start and had to settle out the back. Ran home well enough but others showed more in their sprints. He needs to be more on pace today but barrier turns.
Macedonian: Absolutely flew home last start in the Mornington Cup. Longer straight should suit even more today. Big chance and looks over the odds for sure.
Gottino: Always runs well at track with a 2nd 1st and 2nd last 3 runs. Better over 2000m if you ask me but did run home well enough in the Mornington Cup. Sit more handy today from barrier 1 and could steal it?
Outback Joe: Showed nothing last start at Caulfield. Much harder race today but up to 2600m helps. Always goes well at Flemington.
Unchain My Heart: Three back run was enough to go ‘close’ today but last two runs poor. Can’t suggest today.
Durnford: His run three back had merit. Found out last two starts leading.. take a sit today?
Shenzhou Steeds: Average runs this prep. Can’t win.
Like A Carousel: How good is he? Finally got his maiden in much easier company over 2500m. Looks poorly weighted today though against these class runners.
Cadel’s Gold: Big step up in class. Can run an ok race but
Comments: Tricky race with about 6 chances. I really dislike betting in a race with more than 4 key chances. Macedonian could be my only bet for the race if any due to being overs.
Strategy: Prince of Penzance from Macedonian
Flemington Race 4
Elite Elle: Never run down the straight before is the big concern today. She has been off 5 months now but has a WFA-LR 2nd to her name and in this class last prep won very very well. Off 58.5kg today, if she returns at her best, which 1 win 1 2nd suggests she will, then she goes very well and will be hard to pass in the final 100m. *FACTOR* – Only won once ever on Good ground and was unplaced.
You’re So Good: Very vry poor last prep. Best runs seen over 1600m previous prep. Hard to have.
Lady Lakshmi: Was a solid runner at 2YO but last win was over 1400m. Goes well at track. A bit of money has come for her. Probably wants further IMO.
Royal Bender: Run last start at MV was ‘ok’ but needs to improve a good 2 lengths to be winning this today.
Spartini: Showed us nothing this prep and hasn’t won since 2012. Been off a month and a bit.. which Weir does work magic over this time off.
Dance For Cash: Has continued to run well enough this prep but hasn’t meausred up since the Sale win. Hard to see measuring up here.
Red Fez: Word is she is going much better this prep. But even so will be coming from a long way back and a few better in this race.
Angels Beach: Very solid win firs tup and can continue on with another win today. Key for me is that she handles the straight but more importantly the step back to 1100m. She seemed to be dying on her run in the final 100m last start at Caulfield and even if she has trained on well enough, that extra time training on and drop back in distance should be the difference between getting passed or holding out a progressive runner.
Miracle to Me: Very average run first up. Has won at course distance and harder company.. but off that first up run, I’m struggling to tip her in the top 2. The positives are the drop back 3kg today from a 3F-GP3 race but important to realise going up outside of her weight class. Always runs well 2nd up. Looks over the odds.
Comments: I have this between Angels Beach, Elite Elle and Miracles to Me. I’m expecting Angels Beach to take a sit behind Elite Elle, push out at the 200m and just explode past due to fitness and weights. Miracle to Me so far down in the weights could surprise and burst through the pack late.
Strategy: Angels Beach to win. Small win bet Miracle to Me.
Flemington Race 5
Power Princess: You have to forgive first up right? I’m not sure I can though. I want to, but the replay hurts to watch. Didn’t finish off the race well at all with others around her getting home in similar times. Up to 1400m could be the difference and a longer straight, but I’m not sure.
Koonoomoo: Is she going really well? I think she is considering the first up run. Barrier 1 means stuck on barriers.. will they try and push forward again? Looks a serious chance.
Fuddle De Duddle: Didn’t show us much first up.
Floria: Measured up over this distance to be a Group horse in Fillies and Mares classes in previous preps. Doesn’t look to be a load of speed in this so she will be in a very strong position and have every chance today.
Goldslick: An eye-catching run last start first up at course and distance in harder company. She was caught wide the only way and still stuck on like a good thing for 4th. A chance today.
Sino Eagle: Three strong runs in a row but this is a massive jump in class today as well. Will find a few too good here.
SeaSide: Didn’t impress me in her last foru runs this prep in much easier company. Only has a few KGs on some class rivals and looks outclassed here.
Five All: Never runs a bad race. Weighted ok against Sino Eagle here today but is she really this class? I think she gets found out today.
Catered: Won well at Pakenham last start but isn’t going well enough to win this today.
Spending: Jumped well last start so form would suggest she misses it today. At weights in this class, she isn’t as good as all of these.
Comments: A tough race on form but two stick out for me.
Strategy: Floria to win. Smaller win bet Koonoomoo.
Flemington Race 6
Mouro: A genuine horse who always runs a great race. Run 1st or 2nd in 11 of 13 runs which tells you that the yard not only has this horse going super for each run, but also that they place the horse very well. Loves a good track and goes well at distance, although may be set for further runs than this, this prep. Can win.
Fat Al: Hasn’t shown anything since 2012 sadly. Looked to have huge potential but nothing. Has been off 4 months. Could Moody have turned him around? Last win was over similar distance in Group 1 company so Group 3 over 1400m isn’t exactly too hard to imagine.
Dany The Fox: Last win was in the Kilmore Cup last year… so hasn’t won for more than a year.. but last prep was up in class and continued to run very well including a 2.5L 10th to Rebel Dane at distance in Group 1 company and 2.5L 5th to Solzhenitsyn over 1600m. Price said E/W chance though which concerns me.
Strawberry Boy: Only run at this track was a win in a super fast time.. low flying. Last prep got run down firs tup at Caulfield over the 1400m, failed 2nd up but went painfully close in Group 3 company run down by Boban. The form lines are strong and if he returns at his best, he will be very hard for anyone to get past.
Mourinho: Never placed first up, or at this track previously. Did win a Group 3 last prep at MV but in 2000m+. Not for me.
Under The Eiffel: Blocked fo rruns first up at Mornington but didn’t show much as it was. Down in weight today, up in distance. Poorly weighted agianst Strawberry Boy.
Flying Hussler: Showed some very impressive runs last prep. Goes well first up and goes well at distance. Best runs last prep were on wet or dead grounds.. but they were all good. I think he has group potential but don’t think he is as good as Strawberry Boy at this distance.
High Esteem: Last prep stepped up to the next level. Some very solid runs in group company. Speed will be on for a late swoop. Maps well.
Bel Thor: Better over longer distances. Not sure he measures up to this off first up run either.
Our Hand of Faith: Progressive type who continues to run well. This is a big step up but will be going closeish again.
Comments: This race looks fairly straight forward on paper. Strawberry Boy wins if comes back at best. Mouro could give it a big shake also. High Esteem has the potential while Our Hand of Faith has the fitness.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 8, 10
Strategy: Strawberry Boy to win.
Flemington Race 7
Shamus Award: Best runs have been on shorter straight tracks. Expect he will be stuck out in front for a long time and there will be a number of horses coming at him. Can go close, no doubt, but I think one finds a way past!
Criterion: First up run ran home well from the back. Will be very far back again today giving all the favs a huge head start. I expect him to be hitting the line hard but missing by a length or two at least.
Eurozone: Oliver off. Boss on. Horrible horrible horrible change that obviously was out of their hands. But he was very strong to the line and that is hard to fault. His best was the final 200m and the extra distance today looks to suit. The straight should bring out the best in him.
Thunder Fantasy: Surprised many of us with a first up win over a distance we thought may not be his go. Was fairly impressive beating some average horses though. Up to 1600m will suit and maps well from barrier 6. Can win.
Hucklebuck: Weighted to win. Hucklebuck has slain any dragons in his path when required. The 2nd to Paximadia isn’t a bad loss to have either while losing to Lion of Belfort when blocked for runs is part of his pattern as well. Proved last prep that he goes well at course and distance in a similar level of class to this race. Maps well.
Prince Harada: I’ve been against this horse it’s last 5 runs, but I saw the merit I needed last start to suggest he can run well today and go close. An issue today is that he is 1.5kg worse off at weights than last start. The positive is that he maps to get a sit today instead of leading that will help. Can run a bold race and threaten for a win.
Rock Hero: Had every chance first up. Beaten convincingly but meets Thunder Fantasy 1kg better off today. Up to 1600m will help. Needs to find lengths today though 2nd up.
Surge Ahead: I’m not sure what to say. He was beaten a long way out first up. The run was poor. I’ll probably have a suckers $5 on him just because I can’t stand a horse like this who I like winning at these odds (and record it under my suckers bets column in excel), but couldn’t tip anyone into him after that first up run.
Teronado: Flashed home but still didn’t get close to them in the end. Will be better for 1600m but barrier is horrible today also. Will be way way back which hurts in a race like this.
The Quarterback: Beaten convincingly the first two runs this prep. Can’t see him turning the form around on Hucklebuck today at all.
Late Charge: Overraced first up but ran home well enough. Personally I didn’t see the run had much merit to it like everyone else is saying though. The best runner won that race.
Alpha Beat: Had every chance to win last start but couldn’t get there. Worse barrier today. Very little chance.
Bardem: Ran home well enough behind Thunder Fantasy but is way outclassed here.
Artie’s Shore: A maiden winner getting a run here? Please.
Comments: I keep coming back to Eurozone and Hucklebuck. Hucklebuck has the progression but Eurozone proved that he is the real deal going so close behind Moment of Change.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5
Strategy: Eurozone to win.
Flemington Race 8
Pago Rock: Sensational late last start at course and distance. Top weight today is the only issue. Can run well.
Adamantium: First up run showed enough to build into this one. Needs to go forward today to have a chance as thats where he is best from. can go forward, can win.
African Pulse: Poor last start. Hard to have.
Canali: Never goes well at track is a major issue. Poorly weighted vs others in this race.
El Magico: Only run at track and distance was for a win. 4kg up today from that run and much harder race. Can run well.
Miracles of Life: Bigger and fitter is the word this prep but I’ll believe it when I see it. 1000m isn’t too sharp for her at all with a 4.3L 1000m win first run in Caulfield last prep. Never gone down the straight is a MASSIVE negative. First time meeting those outside of her age range also.
Cascabel: Showed nothing this prep to suggest a win.
Halle Rocks: Last few runs have been ‘solid’ without impressing. Can’t have.
Office Bearer: Disappointed last start at Caulfield. Needed to go closer to be in this today. Never run at track huge negative.
Brilliant Bisc: Only fair to the line after leading last start at course and distance. Ran home well previous start behind Shamal Wind. Not good enough IMO.
Couldn’t Agreemore: The stand out runner for mine. He looks very progressive. He beat OGunde last start with ease and OGunde came out and won by 3L the next start as well. Has some very strong form lines from previous prep that stack up in this class. Weighted to run very well and maps behind one of the pace makers.
Petrify: Untapped potential it seems. 0.5L behind Knoydart is decent form from last prep. Shown better over further.
Comments: I’m all over Couldn’t Agreemore. We got the $9s early in the week but I get a feeling you will get close to that on Betfair on the day also.
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 11
Strategy: Couldn’t Agreemore to win. Smaller bet on Adamantium.
Flemington Race 9
Tanby: Showed nothing last prep. Normally goes ok first up but showed nothing. Hasn’t won since 2012 which is a worry. Weighted at the very top of the weights as well. Can run well if at best.
Prairie Star: Showing nothing this prep. No thanks.
Whisper Downs: Missed the start the last two races which is a massive issue. He goes very well at this distance and is suited today, but needs to jump and get a good position. Could place.
Akzar: Proved last start that he is progressive and a winner. Giving Extra Zero 1.5kg today for a 1L victory, but maps better today. The favourite for a reason.
Desert Jeuney: Undefeated over this distance. Last start run was very solid in equal class over 1400m and straight up to 2000m today looks suited.
Extra Zero: Continues to find one too good this prep. Best runs are seen on Good tracks. Will take a sit again today and go very close.. but that was best run ever last start so hard to see a repeat today?
Anagold: Very poor first up and never won 2nd up. Goes better at distance but the horse takes a while to get into preps.
Brungle Cry: Has won twice in the past over this distance, but never won first up and is clearly being ridden towards hurdles.
Beneficiary: Couldn’t win at Moe. Should finish last.
Comments: Let’s talk for potential for a moment and which horse ratings wise has the most potential to win this at their best. Head and shoulders, that would be Tanby by a mile. Has won WFA-G2 at 2400m and goes well at 2000m and at track. If you simply remove last prep which was in much harder races than this and rate on previous prep and one before that, then you can give him every chance. Akzar is the obvious favourite for agood reason, he seems to have more upside and still probably hasn’t peaked. If at 90% today, Tanby is a better horse for sure than all but Akzar, DJ and EZ.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Tanby 1 unit to place 0.25 units to win.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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