Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 15 February 2014 for Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day. This is the first year for quite a few that we won’t see the great, retired, undefeated mare going around. She is and will probably be the best horse we will ever see over the distance and it was only fitting that she set the records alight last year. It happens to just be one of the most open Lightning Stakes in recent memory and the debate is on whether there will be a slow or hot tempo with the two 2YOs in the race. I’m expecting slow and that means there are a few good chances at odds, even though I think the favourite is a superstar. The card is very tough today. There isn’t many races today where you can take it down to 3 clear chances or less. Take the value where possible. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 Samaready
Just to expand on this one a bit. The yard have been bullish that she is fit and ready to win. If she is 100% and runs up to that today, she should be winning at the weights – see write-up for more reasons on this. Adjusting for all the factors that can occur, I have her rated around the $2.75 mark, so the current $3.3 best available is a good bet. While it isn’t a factor, there are SEVERAL bookies offering some deals for money back specials on this race that make her an even better bet in my opinion.
Next Best
Flemington Race 4 Windswept
The price is the main reason we are with Windswept today. You will look at the form and say, non-winner. But at the weights, in this class today, down the straight with Oliver on board and most importantly the ground we will see at the track. These are just a few key factors leading towards a rated price of around $5. This is a competitive race.
Best Place Bet
Flemington Race 3 Five All
There or thereabouts pretty much every run. I have only 3 other runners in the race that I think can beat Five All home and that means the place bet is represents value, especially seeing I have Five All rated on top.
Value runners on the card today
Flemington Race 6 Surge Ahead
Flemington Race 7 Bugatty
Flemington Race 3 Zabeelzebub
Flemington Race 4 Big Buddie
I’ve changed up the ‘Best Value’ section this week as the races are seriously competitive and there are quite a few runners over the odds. Do any of the four above win or even place? Considering they are all $7 or over for the place, we could very well go 0/4 on places today, but I am much more confident than that. The top two on the list are the higher confidence runners at the value and I’m bullish on Surge Ahead to even win.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 5, 7, 8, 10, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 11, 15
Promotions
Sportsbet – Run 2nd in Lightning Stakes money back ($100 max)
Betstar – Free bet Reload (Max $50) if you back Boomwaa or Bugatty and they place but don’t win
Betfair – Money back if Samaready misses a place in the Lightning ($50 max – Best of Five product)
Tom Waterhouse – Run 2nd at Flemington in any Race? Money back. ($100 max refund – Single bets only on Tom’s Div only)
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Ducal Castle: Two runs this prep have both been solid. Ran home well first up and then blocked last start at Caulfield. Weighted nicely today and rates well.
Red Letter Day: What did he beat first up? The time was very poor so I’m not sure can measure up here.
Coram: Ran home very well first prep behind Silversands. First up this prep slow away, laid in and poor post-race recovery. Just ignore those runs. No excuses today. Can run well.
Inevitability: Couldn’t win a only fairly run maiden first up on dead even when leading. Can’t see today.
Orujo: Have to just forgive first ever run when went around a $3 favourite. 3 months off. Probably even better now. Big chance.
Betcher: Good enough trial win. Bred well. Money will tell.
Marcado: Won well enough at Cranny trial. Money will tell.
Statue of Warriors: Horrible first run and money suggested wouldn’t run well. Can’t see that changing.
The Spitfire: Fastnet Rock runner who Hayes fancies.. he will be happy if the colt places. Generally they do take a while to come on and better at 3YO IMO.
Lady Sharapova: Hawkes runner who has been very well backed. Money tells the story.
Comments: Tough race with so little form to go off on some runners. Happy to take the overs on forgive runs.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Small win bets on Orujo and Coram.
Flemington Race 2
Prairie Star: Very average last start over 1400m first up. Up to 2000m suits. Williams takes the ride. If returns at best, which was 3L off Foreteller in WFA-G2, then he is a player in this race.
Extra Zero: Just continues to run well without winning this prep. Blocked for run last start when took a sit instead of leading and was 2L off Prince of Penzance who would be a short priced fav here. Barrier suits and so does weight thanks to the top weight being in this. Rates well.
Val Mondo: Last 3 runs this prep have seen a turned around Gelding. Has been racing well back in class but continues to run really well. Massive issue is step back to 2000m. Weighted poorly also it seems to be.
Akzar: Blocked for run last start but won well anyway. Down 4kg today up in class heavily. Oliver takes the ride. Will go close.
Auld Burns: Weighted off 51kg seems perfect for him, but his last four runs have been poor so I can’t back.
Try Pickle: Won well enough two back at Caulfield. Last start at Moonee Valley was just an ignore run when jumped poorly and was gone from there. Probably weighted fairly poorly though today in this class compared to horses such as Extra Zero.
Zabeelzebub:Ran home very well last start at Caulfield when you consider they crawled timewise on a Good track. Down 2.5kg today and looks big odds considering that run. Not the worst runner in this race and could run very well.
Comments: Extra Zero is the class in this. Prairie Star is the unknown and Zabeelzebub looks to be the horse on the up.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Extra Zero to win. Smaller spec win bet on Zabeelzebub.
Flemington Race 3
Means A Lot: Got the run of the race and all the favours last start and won well enough. Up 2kg today while first print is down 0.5kg for a 0.2L defeat. Hard to have today on that alone!
Whitten’s Delight: Super poor first up run. Previous prep form 1600m close in Listed company. Will she measure up here? I prefer others TBH.
Five All: This horse is consistent. She keeps going close and finally got a well deserved win last start at Caulfield. Up 6kg today but down in class. Surprised they aren’t claiming today on her. Barrier 1 is tricky so will need a bit of luck, but can sit mid field at worst and roll home. 1400m is her distance. Can win.
Sino Eagle: Snuck home last start at MV for the win. Up 3kg today and up in class. Distance increase will suit but poorly weighted today. Is classy enough to overcome that.
Rayhan: Hasn’t shown anything since a strong Cranny win. Hard to have even at weights today.
Sacred Dream: First up run was poor. Wants much further than this.
Emmooki’s Star: Beaten home by 0.8L by First Print last start at Caulfield after controlling the tempo out front, had every chance. First Print is 0.5kg better off today also. hard to have just on these stats alone.
First Print: Last two runs has gone close but just not got the win. Weighted very well today considering two back run and better at weights than all she had been against previously.
Tatt Sensation: Goes well enough first up. Won 2 times over this distance and has placed at track. Better runs probably on ground that had more give. Happy to take on today but win wouldn’t shock.
Comments: First Print and Five All are the two stand outs for me today. Five All has the class factor while First Print has the weights.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Five All to win. Saver First Print.
Flemington Race 4
Elusive Touch: been touched up easily since that 1200m Open win at Geelong four runs back in 2012! Firs tup run was poor. I can’t see it. Needs to find 3-4 lengths at least!
About Square: First up run had a lot of merit and proved that he was ready to win last start at Sale in harder company. Down in class today and up 3kg only. Boss keeps the ride. Issue is no speed drawn on his side of the track.. just hope he doesn’t get stuck on the rail!
Dash For Viz: Done nothing to suggest he can win today after last three runs this prep. No thanks.
King Buddy: Blocked for run last start. Always runs a good race. Never gone down the straight is the issue for mine with this horse.
Prince Pedro: Breathing issues last start at Flemington over the 1400m. Drop back to 1200m suits but down the straight? Weighted ok in this class of race… at best goes close.
Cavallo Nero: Meow. Cost us too much money. I’ll be angry if he wins today but off first run, even if blocked, I can’t have.
Tigerland: How good is he? Won 5 from 7 in career. Hasn’t actually beaten much but looks a very good type. If returns at 90% can run well and test these.
Tackleberry: Trainer didn’t expect him to win first up with more improvement to come but he went really close. Down 2.5kg today and up in class. Could give these a run for their money.
Fuddle Dee Duddle: better over further. Didn’t show us much last prep over here after coming over from WA. No thanks.
Regalmania: Showed us nothing first two runs this prep. Can’t see.
WindSwept: Oliver has taken the ride for a reason, this horse has a lot of progression to come. Can put in the fast sectionals and ridden with cover has a huge sprint. Best runs have been on GOOD ground and will get that today. A top chance today.
Big Buddie: Gave him no chance last start at Mooneey Valley and off a fairly slow tempo out front he finished off the race really well. He always runs well enough down the straight and could be wanting the ground Good again today. Down 3.5kg and is actually a chance!
Mandla: Had every chance last start at course and further distance when ridden out the front off a slow tempo and was outclassed by Decircles. Similar class today, back to 12000m and up 1.5kg and Smith put back on. He is good, but how will he go down the straight? I’m happy to risk him again in this field.
Too Deadly: Ran poorly last start off a slow tempo out front. Back to 1200m suits but poor record at this track puts me off.
Comments: Windswept looks amazing value today. Big Buddie is also big overs.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Windswept a big go today at the price to win. Smaller win bet on Big Buddie.
Flemington Race 5
Solicit: Runs to any distance as proved last campaign when won at 1200m then didn’t fall outside the places in Group races from 1600 up to 2500m. Compared to the runners in this race, she certainly does look suited weight wise and from barrier 1, she will be given every chance.
Quayside: First up run this prep was only fair without threatening. Will get improvement from that run but has to find a length or two today IMO.
Sensibility: First up prep won maiden well, good 4th at Moprhetville in similar class and then 1.8L 2nd to Guelph in a fairly average field to be honest at Randwick outside of Guelph. Down 2kg.. rates well if at best.
Scratchy Bottom: Ran home very well first up at Caulfield. The tempo was strong enough in early stages but it wasn’t particually setup for her. Looks to be a quality filly going places. Can win.
Girl In Flight: Did nothing wrong last prep and ended with a classy win when blocked for runs but still got there. Weighted nicely.
Critical Angel: Very average run last start at Caulfield and hard to see the step up in class here.
Spirit of Heaven: First up run was super poor when favourite in an easier race. Two runs last prep went close both times but still looking for a class win.
Rezoned: Good maiden winner last prep but not shown us much at all last two runs. Hard to have.
Comments: Solicit is the stand out and will be taking a sit today. Girl In Flight is the horse with the potential. Sensibility the unknown.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Solicit to win. Smaller bet on Girl In Flight.
Flemington Race 6
Criterion: Didn’t measure up over the longer distances last prep and saw his best over the shorter distances like 1500m. Can run well today.
Surge Ahead: Massive overs today. He beat home Bernabeu over 1300m in a low flying 16.6 contest at WFarm last prep. He then progressed to win here in similar class over 1800m from start to finish and was NEVER getting passed even if they went 200m further. Down in weight today and he is a big chance from barrier 3. Maps to get an easy time out front if wants it.
Hucklebuck: Proved he was genuine last prep with quality runs. Returned in an easier race than this to score by nearly 1L in solid time at Morphetville. Up 200m today and from barrier 1 maps to need luck but is one of the best in this race for sure.
San Diego: Didn’t stay out the 2000m. 1400m 2.8L 3rd to Long John was very solid to start first up last prep. If trained on can continue to show form and go well today.
The Quarterback: Ran home well from the back at Caulfield last start over 1200m. Up to 1400m will suit. Down 3kg today suits as well.
Prince Harada: Who was betting $2.8 for him first up? Please. Can and must improve on that run today off 54kg but I can’t have him.
Teronado: Just ignore first up run and look to previous runs over in QLD and NSW. Off those form lines can run well.
Epic Saga: To me, he doesn’t look genuine enough to be a threat over this distance in this class today. Looks to be a 1800-2000m horse and others better suited.
Monkstone: Poor run last start. Hard to have off that but surely something went wrong?
Kushadasi: Ran ok behind Hucklebuck first up. Hard to see beating all these.
Worth a Ransom: Start to finish ran home well behind Bull Point. Weighted ok today. Will try control the tempo to make it not a genuine staying test. Could look the winner at the 200.
Mahican: Won a 12000m sale maiden on slow.. can’t see here.
Comments: One of the toughest races of the day in the fact that there are some very very very good horses who look genuine and in for a good prep. The price for Surge Ahead is wrong and will be attracting a bet for sure from me on the E/W. Hucklebuck is the one outside of him I like.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 12
Strategy: Surge Ahead E/W. Hucklebuck Small win bet.
Flemington Race 7
Shamexpress: Shown his best runs over 1200m and back to 1000m today is the issue for this runner for mine. Better 2nd up if you ask me as well. Can’t discount as goes well down this straight, but others better weighted.
Pago Rock: A throw at the stumps Hayes even admitted it. Ran home well behind Lankan Rupee last start over 1200m. All previous runs were solid also. Last win was 1100m WFA-LA… goes well at track but prefer others.
Aeronatuical: Only run last prep ran home very well at Randwick to score a Listed win. Previous prep ran very close 2nd in Group 2. Goes well enough at this track and is over the odds today. Can go close.
Espirit De Bullet: Just ignore last start and rate on previous run. Goes well down the straight… can run well but this is a tough race.
Unpretentious: Very solid win first up last prep in WFA-G2 over 1000m when flashed home. Goes well down the straight as well. Is the unknown of the race who could win at odds.
African Pulse: Won 2 from 4 at this track. Last start I would have expected a better finish if going close today. Outside chance. Could place.
Samaready: CLASS. Won 6 from 9. 1 loss in Golden Slipper and went close from last.. two who beat her home were leaders. Next start failed on heavy but was sick and had blood issues… Then in the Moir pulled up with more issues and was only 1.5L off them. She is absolute class, goes well on Good or Dead tracks and has won her only go down the straight. She is certainly the one to beat.
Snitzerland: Two preps back won a WFA-G2 up in Sydney very well over this distance in 56.1. Then got blown away by Bel Sprinter next start and failed in FM-GP1 from the front in Adelaide as a very short fave. Last prep failed behind Samaready first up and then went close in Listed behind Lankan Rupee on this course. Return well today but this is a big test. Is she a genuine Group 1 horse?
Bernabeu: I have a huge opinion of this horse. He was put up as the horse to follow from last year after the Spring Carnival after a blistering 3.3L win over the 1000m. I posted to get on the $13s for the Newmarket a week back and that price is long gone after that excellent trial. Looks top shelf.. main aim Newmarket, but can go very close today as well. The key, she does have a sprint.
Brilliant Bisc: I can’t see her going close today at the weights based on previous form lines. No thanks.
Boomwaa: Beaten last two starts in 2YO and back to 1000m today to a track where he won by 3L. 46kg.. but I think the other 2YO is a better chance.
Bugatty: The Hawkes stable normally don’t do this type of thing. All Too Hard didn’t get thrown into the slipper as a prime example, so this is a strange placement worth noting. They have a high opinion of the horse and I think he is a chance at big odds to steal this.
Comments: There are so many promotions around for this race meaning I will build a book around Samaready, Bernabeu and Bugatty. Quite a few giving money back for 2nd, some giving $3 for Snitz or Samaready to win etc. Look around! Another money back on Samaready if misses a place!
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 5, 7, 8, 10, 13
Strategy: Samaready to Win. Saver on Bernabeu. Speculation E/W bet on Bugatty
Flemington Race 8
Backstedt: Just ignore last start when a horse who was massive odds and shouldn’t have been in the race, put on a stupid tempo out the front. Rate on two back run and he goes very close today. Weighted well with claims down to 57kg. Only issue is barrier today.
Nevis: Best form on slow/heavy. Purchased for a reason by a leading stable and went around in 2Y-GP1 behind Dawn Approach as a $5.5 2nd fav! Not been seen for 7 months after that 9L win on Slow over 2300m. Better over further but don’t dismiss. Could be pushed to lead.
Rawnaq: Showed nothing last start first up and only up 300m today.. hard to see the distance increase help. Probably ridden cold today.
The Ruffian: Very poor last start at MV from the back. Two back was MUCH easier company. Doubt he measures up here.
Xavi: Has been very hard to catch this prep. The run three back back in November was huge and just unlucky not to win. Ignore the next start and rate off last start when ran well enough. Back up to 1700m… Williams back on. Can win.
The Big Steel: His best days are behind him IMO and hard to see him measuring up to win this.
Great Lane: Probably just ignore last start if you can and rate on previous runs. Rates ok in this class. Personally can’t have at the prices.
Are There Any: I like her. She has continued to run well this prep and is up in class again. Looks to be a horse suited to a longer straight if you ask me and will appreciate the extra 100m. Maps to sit slightly further forward today and will be given every chance.
Word Gets Around: First two runs have shown nothing so I’m finding it hard to have any confidence on placing here.
Bunchloch: All three runs this prep have had merit and he hasn’t been far off. Sits out the back and runs on well. Ran on fairly last start at Geelong as well. Is he this class? I think you have to include in Quaddie.
Comments: I’m convinced Are There Any can continue to progress for another run or two this prep. Looks suited. Backstedt has the class to win this. Nevis the unknown of the race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Are There Any to win. Minor bet Backstedt.
Flemington Race 9
Niblick: Runs well first up. Better suited by longer distances it seems on recent runs he has put in. Is he this class in the city?
Club Command: Sent up to Gold Coast and couldn’t score a win but went close both runs. Similar class (probably harder) today. Horse has only missed a place once from 15 runs (ran 4th) which is crazy. Always there or there abouts! Has to be in Quaddie.
Hvasstan: Surprised over 2000m with a win last prep at MV. This looks much harder today but has run well at track in similar company, last prep infact first up. Don’t fully dismiss. Best shown on DEAD tracks though.
Whisper Downs: Oh my boy. He has gone a miss since his spell. 1400m? Geez. He isn’t a 1400m horse. No thanks.
Foundry: Won his maiden over 1400m in Ireland on a slow track. Then stepped up to 2410m to run 2nd in a handy 3Y-GP2 in England before running 3.3L behind Leading Light over 3000m, one of the best stayers in the UK. Lloyd purchased and this guy looks a genuine chance to go on and do big things in Aus. I doubt this distance is his thing, but can’t chance in quaddie either!
Sabrage: Where have you been mate? Haven’t seen him since March 2013 and previous to that Nov 2012. Did nothing last 2 preps. Is he running better? Never placed from 4 tries at distance and 1 place from 6 at track. No thanks.
Decircles: Going better than ever this prep. Last start win at track was fairly solid from start to finish and finds himself down 5kg today mapping to lead. Big chance especially if the rail is on!
Desert Jeuney: Ran poorly first up from the back. Hard to have off that run. Needs further.
Goldslick: Kent thinks she needs the run today. Doesn’t look a genuine 1400m Listed runner to me either. Does go well at the track though and likes a Good ground.
Hai Lil: A tad disappointing first up when ran home well but didn’t threaten. Down 6kg today is the big thing. Goes well at track and up to 1400m. Can win.
Out Hand Of Faith: Blocked for runs last start at Caulfield when Sistine Demon was given the easy win from the front. Progressive but is he weighted well enough off 54kg? Not sure on that. In this, but I think others are more genuine.
Vizhaka: Goes ok first up. Goes well at distance. Only run at track was a place. Been off 5 months. What is his aim? Not sure this is it? Maps ok. Hasn’t ever measured up in this class.
Magic Me: Not good enough for this.
Free of Doubt: Fairly disappointing since four good runs to start the prep. Has progressed through grades and was found out it seems. I can forgive two back run and then last start slow… have to take on trust. Include in Quaddie.
Comments: Decircles the stand out. Club Command will go close. Free of Doubt the overs probably if the tempo isn’t overly strong. Foundry the unknown.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 11, 15
Strategy: Decircles to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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