Welcome to The Profits form guide for Horse Racing at Flemington on 18 January 2014. Well, last Saturday ended with a massive 4L win to our Best Bet of the day at around the $4 mark. We had been waiting for her return and the 90% confidence told you we were keen. She didn’t disappoint and turned around what was otherwise looking a fairly poor day of tipping. Speaking of poor, Caulfield on Wednesday was a write-off due to the state of the track and our only Best Bet failed and is to be spelled. Onto today, some fairly high confidence in a number of races and I will be putting on more than my normal number of bets due to the quality of runners going around that I have been following throughout these preps. There also seems to be a wide range of value available with our two value picks currently $30+ when I have them rated at $12 or less for their races. Let’s hope the track has handled the heat well. As always, I hope your form guide matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Flemington Race 7 Initiator
Flemington Race 4 He’s Your Man
Flemington Race 8 Finishing Card
Next Best Value
Flemington Race 6 Fab Fevola
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 9, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
2YO race with a lot of runners with no form. As always, unless if you have the word up, hard to play here. Jarklin at the price looks an ok place chance. The fav is hard to match up to be honest.
No bet as always.
Flemington Race 2
Acapela: Been up a long time this prep. Won well two back in a easier class than this and goes all the way up to 60kg which looks harsh. Maps to be further back today. Waller runner to be ridden by Newitt sent down to this track suggests good placement. Don’t dismiss.
Crucial: Last start run was poor at best. Weighted wellt oday back in company and from a strong barrier, should run well. Hasn’t won since early 2012 and is a non-winner.
Gig: Very brave run for 3rd last start up in class 1.3L behind ANlon which is strong form. Won here two back at course and distance at this weight beating quite a few she meets today and is only giving them 0.5kg it seems. Is the extra 200m a issue? Never missed a place over this distance. Comes in really well.
Flying Hostess: Ran 2nd 4 of her last 5 runs and always goes very close. Down 2kg today and has the wood on Spellrocker at the weights. Meets Crucial 4kg+ worse at the weights for a 0.4L defeat at MV three runs back looks the key to figuring her out here. I can’t have on this stat.
You’re Discreet: Better over further and deeper into preps. Never missed a place at this class and has won at distance. Probably ignore first up but hard to have.
Five All: Another who continues to run well having won 3 in a row before two close 2nds the last two runs. Up in distance today to 1600m looks a positive move, but will map further back today from a wider barrier. Can win.
Nautical: A bit of a cat recently, Giving Flying Hostess a fair bit of weight today and is hard to have for mine.
Spellrocker: Great start to finish win last start at Caulfield. I can’t have her backing up at Caulfield here and am happy to avoid at the weights.
Thron Star: Jumped poorly last start and ran on very well. Down 0.5kg today as well and if produces best, will go close.
La Venta: 4.3L winner last start over in Adelaide at $1.50. Front runner. Ran a strong 2nd on Slow to Under The Leaner previous start. Massive step up in class though and at the price looks a lay.
Bim Bom Bay: Hard to have placing on form.
Comments: Gig stands out like a sore thumb to me. We were on two back when she won here and last start was impressive even on a Good track. Track should be where she wants it and maps to get the correct run. Only issue is if the jockey can get the best from here.
Strategy: Gig E/W. Laying La Venta.
Flemington Race 3
Lamingtons: Never placed at the track and straight form is unfounded. She looks to be one of the best in this race and is weighted ok on last few runs this prep, but can she finally last down the straight? I have my doubts.
Moreau: Placed only start at this distance. Never won first up but has placed only run at track. Down in class big time today and progressed really well last prep after switching to front running tactics. Can’t back her over this distance at weights.
Sinhala: Excluding the heavy win this prep, has shown nothing. Never placed from 4 tries at track. No thanks.
Diamond Glow: Won a 2Y-SWP very well at Caulfield and then ran a brave 2nd (4.3L) to Miracles of Life next start. Hasn’t been seen since. The class runner in the race and she is heavily down in class today. The stand out winner for mine.
Hotel Sierra: Ran ok last start and ran home well. Down 2.5kg looks a little harsh up in this class though if you ask me. Can run ok.
Petrova: Needed to show more last start for me to suggest she could win today. I do suggest she can place.
Mrs Hadlee: The one to beat on form. Ran a 0.8L 2nd to Awasita at course and distance last start and is only up 0.5kg. The clear pick on form this prep.
Return Journey: Couldn’t beat a few easier runners last two starts and can’t beat all these today.
The Blonde Alibi: Ran well enough last start at Cranny. Poorly weighted in this class though. Minor chance.
The Bounty Queen: 5L win in very easy company first up then 5L winner over 950m 2nd up in easier grade also. 56kg. One of three runners Kah has come over to ride.
Not A Llama: Average maiden win and hard to see being so progressive to win this.
Lady Pippa: Won maiden ‘ok’ but not impressive for mine. No thanks.
Leaps and Bounds: Ran home down the straight well enough last start without ever looking a threat. Down 3kg today, could go close.
Whistle Baby: Average maiden winner but off 52kg, you just never know. Magnus filly.
Comments: Five key chances here in Diamond Glow, Mrs Hadlee, The Bounty Queen, Leaps and Bounds, and Whisle Baby. Happy to take oN leaps and Bounds at the price. What did Whistle Baby beat last start? Weighted well but bottom odds for sure. If she wins then so be it. Take it on also. Too much unknown about The Bounty Queen, I can’t have her as one of my top two picks but at the price could be at very least a saver. At the price, I keep coming back to Mrs Hadlee as the top pick over Diamond Glow. She is proven and the form around Awasita is solid.
Strategy: Mrs Hadlee E/W. Smaller win bet on Diamond Glow.
Flemington Race 4
Oregon Spirit: A surprise winner last start in similarish grade. This is another step up if you ask me with two group horses in the race. Rates well and goes well here.
Shenzhou Steeds: First up run had merit without impressing. Barrier 5 so will position well again. Not sure at the weights but must include in F4s.
He’s Your Man: The one to beat. Up 320m today which suits very much. Should have won last start and beaten Anlon but was very close away. Barrier 2 is perfect and if jumps well, he wins for mine.
Eximius: Continutes to run ok this prep without impressing. Weighted well enough today that you can’t write him off.
Durnford: Found some form last start. Can improve but can’t win this at weights for mine.
Eraset: Ran home very well last start behind Amaethon. Could place.
Road Trippin’: Improved last start but at the weights I find it hard to suggest he can win this.
Auld Burns: If jumps well should put some pace into the race which I like. Doesn’t look classy enough to win this.
Chile Express: Disappointing runs the last few. Just not up to this class.
Prince of Penzance: Fast run race at MV last start. Swooped and impressed but this is a massive step up in class. Is he good enough?
Comments: Two horse race for mine between He’s Your Man and Prince of Penzance.
Strategy: He’s Your Man to win.
Flemington Race 5
Brotherly Secret: Showed nothing two back at course down the straight but backed that effort up at MV after being backed off he map. Up 4kg and up in class.
Kievann: Equal class today and up 3kg. Ran well enough for a 2L 4th. Barrier hurts. Can win.
Bon Rocket: Ran home very well last start for an impressive near 3L victory. Can improve and a win wouldn’t shock me.
Jade’s Boy: Showed a lot last prep. Better on wet tracks but runs well enough on good. Up to 1400m today suits. Down to 55.5kg. Can go well.
Canbrada: Nice enough second last start but at weights hard to have here.
Magnus Opus: Disappointed last start. Hard to have here either.
Corporate Takeover: Couldn’t go close at the bool, or geelong last two. Can’t see going close today.
Pandyan: Showed us nothing last start at Caulfield. Hard to see the improvement today.
Pindan Pearl: 2YO form showed us something but first up run didn’t impress. Needs a few more runs.
Ourfightingharada: Maiden only wet winner. No thanks.
Comments: Very average race with some form lines that are hard to line up. Bon Rocket does look a very good type but the price looks wrong. Brotherly Secret deserves the weight today and maps well. 2L to Lord of the Sky is very good form and I think he is the most progressive type here.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Strategy: Brotherly Secret E/W
Flemington Race 6
First Command: First up for almost a year running behind Black Caviar last run. Previous runs saw a course and distance win in this class down the straight, a Open class 1.3L win at Caulfield and a 0.5L 3rd at Caulfield. Goes well first up and weighted well again today. Measures up.
General truce: Not the best first up record but has won previously. He goes well down the straight. Don’t count him out but others do look better at weights.
Loveyamadly: Last run down the Flemington straight was a win in F&M class over 1100m. Had close to a month off after failing at Caulfield, but off previous run is well in here. My issue is that I don’t think she has returned to this level of class just yet. Needs another run IMO.
Pocket Rockets: Trialed well and McEvoy is very keen on his chances heading towards a Oakleigh Plate. Undefeated from two attempts down the Flemington straight and has won first up in the past. Weighted well enough to win. Is Oliver as good down the straight as on a corner track?
Undeniably: Showed us nothing this prep and that should continue today.
Don’t Get Excited: Just ignore last start. Scratch the run and look to previous runs. Rates well but this is probably just a step beyond his progression at this stage for mine.
Fab Fevola: Weighted to win today down 5kg. Ran home nicely off a strong tempo on a dead track. Should get a GOOD track today which seems to be the key for the horse for mine. Big chance.
Kaiser Sun: Argubly the most progressive and exciting horse going around in Victoria currently. Broke onto the scene winning very well first up and then continued that trend with a solid sectional win last start with a big space to third as well. Down 1.5kg today and will be hard to run down at weights.
She’s Ellie: Form is better than Prettyhappyaboutit for mine and could run well. Place chance.
Comments: Fab Fevola is 3.5kg better off today against Kaiser Sun back on what will be a GOOD track instead of dead wher ehe is 5/3 from 15 instead of 1/3 from 12. The price screams value. I rate him around the $12 mark and we are seeing $30 plus. I have this down to four runners (look at the Quaddie Leg). The money has come for First Command $9 (stupid early price for this class) into $5. The yard is very keen on Pocket Rockets and his record here is imprssive but has never won or even placed in this class previously. The sectionals of Kaiser Sun don’t lie, this is a serious horse going places and I can’t be anywhere else but in his corner again today.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 7, 8
Strategy: Kaiser Sun to win. E/W bet also on Fab Fevola.
Flemington Race 7
The Cleaner: Old favourite back over from Tasmania where he didn’t pick up a win but ran some ok races. Back to a more suitable distance today but certainly looks harshly at the weights. Can run well but need some luck to hold these lot out.
Vatuvei: Not good enough this prep.
Index Linked: Never runs a bad race. Last 8 races have all been 1st or 2nd excluding one 4th. Suited by track and distance and the key today will be back to a good surface. Will be coming from a long way back and the favourite will be the one to run down.
Lord Wimble: Two and three back runs were good but in lesser company than this to be honest. Very poor last start and up to 2000m a bit of a shock. Not for me today.
Epingle: Never won at distance or track but early in this prep over the carnival peaked and ran a close 0.8L 4th and then 2nd to Sertorious in WFA-G2 over 2400m. Have to respect the class at these weights. Freshend up.
Macedonian: Needs further than 2000m to find his best. .
Surpass: Not good enough on form this prep one would suggest. Won 5 placed 4 from 10 starts at this distance and does take a while to get into prep. Needed to show more last start though?
Maules Creek: Didn’t show much first up but second up record is ok. Last prep didn’t do much at all apart from a run on heavy. Hard to have.
Initiator: Gives Kaiser Sun a run for the most progressive Victorian horse award. Won 3 of his last four and was only just run down in the other start. Another step up in class but down to 54kg rates him on top here. The ONLY issue here today is The Cleaner being in the race. He is certain to not lead today, but that may be a good thing if you ask me, he seems a better horse taking a sit. Oliver takes the ride and we can trust him to do what’s needed.
Lordoftheparrots: Not good enough on form this or last prep.
Above Average: Very old favourite but he isn’t in this class.
Bombalatomba: Done nothing all prep and don’t expect that to change just by the up in distance.
Magnapal: The smokey in the race. He does meet Initiator poorly at the weights today but his run last start was a forward, back and then run on role so can be forgiven.
Comments: Initiator is still on the upwards. The price is right again today.
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 9, 13
Strategy: Initiator to win. Saver on Index Linked for those who want to take insurance.
Flemington Race 8
Decircles: Ran very well last start considering the horse had to be passed fit at the barrier. Up to 58kg today but down to a class where he is suited. Up to 1400m today which is a surprise, but they obviously think he is going well and just want to give him a run today down in class. Never missed a place at the distance and barrier 3 means he will be able to take a sit or even lead. Big chance.
Morant: Been very disappointing the last two runs. Up to 1400m could help. Will be coming from far back.
Snow Cover: First up run showed nothing. Never won 2nd up and better over further.
Under The Hat: Has an ok first up record and that provided his best run last prep. Weighted ok today and loves Flemington. One of the chances.
Captivating Lady: Didn’t run on well enough first up. Never won at distance. Better suited over lesser ground?
Finishing Card: Ran on very well last start behind Laohu off the 60kg. Down to 52kg and I consider Laohu a group horse on sectionals… weights to win today. Only issue is barrier and if there is enough tempo today.
Infinite Energy: Three runs this prep all had merit. Meets Decircles 2kg better off today and pillar of Creation 3kg better. Can run well and can win at best.
Murcielaga: A surprise winner off an average tempo last start. Impressive enough win. Down 4.5kg today as well which helps up in class. The horse has always shown potential. Can win.
Pillar of Creation: Weighted poorly today but can still improve again and win again. I personally can’t back, but wouldn’t talk you out of it.
Mandla: Won 3 in a row but this is a massive step up. Has some solid times and did beat Pillar of Creation in a maiden by 4L. can’t ignore this one.
Final Jest: On form I am happy to avoid him and same with weights. Can run well enough though.
Comments: As my Quaddie leg suggests, I want to be going wide in this last leg with many ‘potential’ winners, but Finishing Card absolutely stands out for mine as a very good E/W bet. Down 8kg today after blocked for a run last start and still ran 3rd at Caulfield behind Laohu, I rate this form line. He will get a Good track hopefully by this stage in the day and the leaders will put on a very genuine tempo that is required.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12
Strategy: Finishing Card E/W
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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