Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington and Eagle Farm.
The website wasn’t exactly having the finest day, unlike our tips. All of our tips today were posted on twitter and facebook so please, when the website is down, have a look over there. We expect the new website to be up with a new host within 2 weeks so please bare with us!
Thanks,
Drew
Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 Cooldini
Next Best
Flemington Race 6 The Cleaner
Best Value
Flemington Race 7 Serene Star + Nicholls Court win bets (Yes this is a double win bet option. Serene Star is huge overs for the win and Nich Court is also. Makes it best value for mine).
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Lady Lakshmi looks the key runner here today. Won well first up on Heavy at Sandown and then last start won by 1.5L at Flemington. Only up 1kg today, but barrier 12 is a slight issue. Looks the one to beat.
The Bowler looks to be the main danger today. Not just a wet tracker even though won last two on heavy, a second to Kuroshio last prep is strong form on Good..
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Lady Lakshmi while savering The Bowler
Flemington Race 2
Very solid race with a number of chances. Can we forgive previously picked runners in Readings, Police Gazette and Kirribilli Gold for poor runs? Not so sure we can here. If we were on heavy, I migh be chancing Kirribilli again but not today.
Cooldini is the stand out today. Won very well at course and distance and weight by 3 lengths and hasn’t been penalised for that run. Speed maps very well and rates as winner.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Cooldini straight out.
Flemington Race 3
Haussmann comes back today from a 132 day spell. Ran some top notch races last prep and comes in well here today for the Snowden yard. Big Chance.
Pillar of Creation has won 2 in a row but this is a massive step up today from previous two runs.
Spending improved significantly last start at Flemington when finishing 0.1L 2nd. Could find enough today.
Winta Chiller was huge last start. Gains 1kg on Spending today as well for 0.1L. Looks weighted to win today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Haussmann looks to have a load of progression and Snowden wouldn’t be returning without thinking he can win this. big odds. Winta Chiller is crazy overs. Unexposed today and better off at weights. Speed maps well enough and can go close.
Flemington Race 4
Star Rolling comes into this off an impressive 2 length win.. up in class today and weight from a fairly poor barrier. Looks a little exposed but open to improvement and can win.
Luck’s A Fortune is a very interesting runner today. If you ignore first up run and go on last start, could be suited today down to 51kg after claims.
Space: Won by 5L in a 2000m Maiden at Geelong. Down 7kg today afer that run chucked in the deep end. Very interesting runner.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Not very keen here at all. If anything, E/W on Luck’s A Fortune. Space probably proves to be well weighted today but couldn’t back it.
Flemington Race 5
Probably the most open race of the day. There are 6-8 horses with a chance.
That’s The One was big last start winning at course. May struggle to get a good position from inside barrier though. Still a big chance.. up 3kg today.
Club Command was very strong first up this prep and unlucky to beat home Bello. Up 1.5kg today and looks suited to win. Extra distance will suit.
Magnifique Soleil hit the line very hard first up. Will be even better second up and meets Club Command 0.5kg better off today. Looks a big chance.
Another Prelate meets That’s The One 2kg better off today which should be enough to overcome the weight.. speed maps well.
By the Way is weighted well enough today and is a solid runner. Need to come from a long way back. Needs luck.
Dash For Viz was solid last start and is only up 0.5kg. Needs to find a lot more though.
Under The Hat ran on very well last start. Never won 2nd up though. Can go close.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Another Prelate presents at value once again today. We will catch this runner sooner or later while Club Command is a clear second pick at the price.
Flemington Race 6
The Cleaner is first up today in melbourne. Won 3 from 4 at distance and 2 from 4 first up. Beat home Norsqui in the summer Cup who went on to win a big Adelaide race. Outside barrier average but will go forward.
Clanga’s Glory the has ran some solid races recently. A little poorly weighted but overall can win.
Oh Lord Durane. Won 2 in a row now on heavy. never won on dead.. but is weighted well enough. Big step up. Not sure he is good enough.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: The Cleaner looks massive odds today. Backing on the 2 units win 3 units place ratio.
Flemington Race 7
Pago Rock was exposed last start as not a genuine stayer down the straight. Can’t have today.
Nicholls Court is an absolute favourite of mine. Ran 0.2L second to Bel Sprinter a few years back (painfully close at big odds) and has been running well ever since.. but has had a few troubles. Has the ability to blow these all away.
Belfast Boy always runs well at this track and is down to 52kg. Hard to dismiss on this straight but last two runs were very poor.
Planet Voyage couldn’t make it 3/3 finding one too good for him last start. Up 2.5kg today doesn’t help the issue either. Still, a massive chance.
Fairly average run last start from Serene Star. down 1kg today and meets Planet Voyage 2.5kg better off today. Big odds today for this.
Zamorar was disappointing last prep. Goes well on dead. Don’t dismiss.
Perturbo ran well enough last start in the Goodwood but is up to 59.5kg. May find a few too good again.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Serene Star is massive odds today while Nicholls Court is crazy odds also for a horse with huge scope.
Flemington Race 8
Girls on Film stands out as the top pick here after claims. Very unlucky last start when hampered.
Spot On maggie rolled about which cost a bit of distance last start and probably cost the race. Equal weight today and can run well.
Endless Shadow coming over for Tony McEvoy. has a very good strike rate doing this and the horse has ability.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Girls on Film Each Way all day.
Eagle Farm Race 7
Streama was massive when wide a lot of the trip last start. Has every chance today but will need luck to get a run.
Red Tracer won well last start in the Dane Ripper and down 2.5kg today.. big chance.
SkyeRush is in career best form. Up 0.5kg today and only issue is poor barrier.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Red Tracer is very hard to beat on a Heavy Track. Looks suited while Skyerush is going great guns and goes well on heavy.
Eagle Farm Race 5
Conservatorium was massive winning last start. Suited by a heavy track again. Fire Up FiFi looks the main threat.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Backing both runners for the same amount for a small win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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