Welcome to The Profits form for 11 January 2014 races at Flemington and of course, Magic Millions at the Gold Coast. We will be looking at all the races at Flemington and the two main ones on the card at Gold Coast. Last week went well, but we did get some bad luck along the way. The day started with the Next Best getting up at close to $5 and then a $20 winner to back that up. The Country Hustle got in at $3.20 but unfortunately the Best Bet Captain Fancypantz finished 5th. The vet report showed the horse pulled up lame which explains the run. Luckily, we had the winner as a saver for the race. It was a good day all around either way! Miss Promiscuity was featuring in our best bets last week until she was scratched and this race suits her even better. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 Miss Promiscuity
Next Best
Flemington Race 2 – Back two horses – Mamwaazel and So Hasty to win equal amounts
Best Value
Flemington Race 5 Angelology
Magic Millions Guineas Tip
Gracious Prospect
Magic Millions Classic Tip
Stroak
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 11, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
6 runners with form only available for 2. Bugatty was very strong infront of Chivalry first up and they may not lead today and switch it up? Could do anything. Smart Bomb looks one to rule out on the trial while we don’t have much on the others.
Could never bet confidently into this one.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Races start at 1.25pm.
Flemington Race 2
Mamwaazel: Very close 0.5L 3rd behind Bring a Ring who up on the Gold Coast today in the $1,000,000 race! Previous run was very solid in a very fast time. Maps to take a sit from barrier 5 and is weighted to win.
So Hasty: Big 8L winner two back in maiden company and measured up ridden from the back last start at Caulfield. Can be ridden forward or back from barrier 1, but best estimates is they take a sit today. Weighted very well.
Cobblestones: Won fairly from start to finish at Mornington last start. Big step up.
IT’s One: Given a good enough ride but fell away at the end. Longer straight shouldn’t help any more if you ask me and barrier outside of Mamwaazel. Worse at the weights today.
Miss Maggiebeel: Ran ok last start but couldn’t make up enough ground. Better suited at weights today and by longer straight but has to improve lengths.
Mambo Lady:Very poor run last start at Caulfield. Weighted well today if turns form around but hard to see such a dramatic turn.
Miss Procyon: Shown nothing the last three runs so hard to suggest she can get even close today even at weights.
Ready Cuz: Won a slowly ran Cranbourne maiden last start. Did run 3.8L 3rd to Long John at 2… but doesn’t have the form lines at 3.
Comments: Perfect race for a 2 horse play. Very hard to split Mamwaazel and So Hasty.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Staking on Mamwaazel and So Hasty to win the same amount if either win the race. Roughly as I write this, if you shop around you can get close to $2 odds.
Flemington Race 3
Sindarin: Very disappointing last start at MV when ridden wide. Should show an improved run.
Jelly Baby: Never won over distance but has run well in the past. Never placed on a good track and is better suited to wet tracks. Can run well if trained on.
Reckless Assassin: The one to beat. Last two wins have been solid. She was made to lead two back and got the easy win while last start took a sit, got blocked for runs but won anyway. Can repeat again. Jockey change the only issue for mine.
Aurora Lights: Very poor first up. No excuses. Can’t have.
First Bloom: Run two back behind Kiss me Ketut had merit but last start was poor. Similar class today but big step up in distance. Needs to have found a few lengths at least.
Pamukkale: Ran on ok but I really don’t think that race she came 6th in is a form race apart from the winner of it. Can’t have on weights here.
Chateau Latour: At the weights, looks impossible to reverse form on Reckless Assassin. Looks 2 lenghts off the win today.
Joplin: Disappointed for run last start but finished ok. Weighted very well today. Can place.
Junoesque: Didn’t finish off anywhere near as well as expected last start.. but too be fair the race was slowly ran. Weighted ok but up in distance is questionable? Don’t dismiss.
Gold To Go: Front runner who is best at MV. Off 51kg looks suited at the weights. Will ensure a strong enough tempo in this race. Will look the winner at the 300m but should get claimed in the final 200m.
St Issey: Back marker who comes into this poorly against Junoeque. Needs to find lengths.
Tejon: Back in distance today and from barrier 1 will take a sit. Up in class and down 4kg, continues to run well without ever looking a winner. Can’t have but can place.
Comments: Two horses clear of the rest for me here. Very happy to be on both.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: Reckless Assassin to win. Lesser bet on Junoesque.
Flemington Race 4
Medvedev: Showed his best over further. Last start was just too short. How good is he going? Not well enough for me.
Correggio: Fairly disappointing last start but is better on a wet surface. Back in class so to speak here… need to make up a lot of ground.
Samuelsson: Ran ok last start at Bendigo. Down 5.5kg today and back in class so to speak, is very well weighted.
Edgewood: 2L behind Laohu who two back and last start at course 1.8L behind Sistine Demon. Will be going back again today and gets to what the yard believes is the desired distance. Should be peaking and comes into this very well.
Nesbo: $1.40 winner last start at Sale and did it easy. All five runs too date have been solid behind some class performers. Seems to just not win the tough races but to be fair, last start was the first non-rain affected track he had seen. Weighted well enough and is classy enough to win.
Priority Road: Best run this prep was out front at Bendigo. Could get away with cheaper sectionals today but needs to. Giving up loads of weight to Samuelsson.
Adirondack: Very strong run behind Gracious Prospect at course and lesser distance. Down 5.5kg today is the key and Gracious Prospect is a runner in the 1M race up at GC today (who i think can win).
Averau: Ridden out the back last start which isn’t her normal pattern and finished off very well. Up 300m today which suits and from barrier 9 may sit further forward today. Can run very well on previous form and looks classy enough to win at weights.
Galway Warrior: Still green last start at 4YO. Only a maiden winner. Looks nice going forward but up to this?
Theodora: Very well backed late last start at MV but didn’t run well at all. Hard to have here but don’t be surprised if money comes again and wins.
Avighna: Couldn’t win a maiden over various distances. Last prep did run some ok seconds though. Hard to race.
Comments: Four key chances here for mine in Samuelsson, Edgewood, Adirondack and Averau.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Adirondack on top from Edgewood
Flemington Race 5
Gottino: Two back run showed enough and then last start a surprise win at course and similar distance beating two very strong runners. Weighted to win again.
Prizum: Equal weight today after a strong run last start. Gottino beat Index Linked last start so not sure the form lines FULLY stack up. Never seen this distance.
Flashy Fella: Last two runs very disappointing. Can’t see measuring up.
Instrumentalist: Continues to improve this prep and got the win last start at Flemington over 2500m. Down 3kg today and in much harder class, Maps well and will go close.
Angelology: Last two runs this prep have been impressive. Last start blocked for a run. Maps to lead today. Looks a top hope.
Angola: Just ignore last start when ridden incorrectly. 4kg better off today against Instrumentalist today for 1.5L defeat last start at Randwick.
Bono Vox: Similar weight to Instrumentalist today. Hard to see the turn around in form enough to win this.
Reigning: Form this prep has been good without threatning. Can run well but I can’t see this.
Suspended Gem: Ran well last start but just couldn’t get there. Can run well again.
Vihanna Victory: Very well backed late last start and was a surprise winner. Weighted well but needs to improve big time for this.
Handsome: Had chances out front but just wasn’t tough enough and gives up too much weight today. Can still place.
King Of Dudes: Needs it more wet than this for me at the weights.
Comments: What form lines do you take? On the weights I have to suggest you go with the Electric Fusion/ Index Linked form lines.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 8, 11
Strategy: Angelology on top from Gottino.
Flemington Race 6
Prairie Star: Showed super form in 2012 and then the early 2013 form was ok but not great. Can go well first up and at this distance if at best. This is a big step back in class.
Chase The Rainbow: Super disappointing last start a clear last thanks to bar plates? They came off and Concussion plates on now. Have to include in quaddie but no way you can back with confidence.
It Is Written: Ran very well last start at Caulfield but did never look the winner. Time was very fast. Up to a distance he has only ran at once previously and didn’t go close.
Limes: Close 2nd in Group 3 company two runs back and then last start down in class won well at Rosehill. Back down to Flemington where has ran well previously over this distance. Rates very well.
The Peak: Good win last start and equal weight today. Amaethon ran well next start which actually backs up the form. Can he repeat it?
Cooldini: Best over much further and further into runs. Happy to avoid.
Anlon: Got the win last start but did get lucky as I think the 2nd placed horse would have beat him if didn’t miss the start. Weighted ok again today here but another big step up in class. Can run well.
Dash For Viz: Just not going well enough this prep to suggest backing here.
Kneeling: Very brave run last start at Caulfield when just missed by 0.3L. Can run well.
Gig: Back to 1400m last start and finally got the win she deserved. Not sure I can see her going on with it here exactly.. but should go well.
Comments: Tough race. Prices will most likely mean I skip this one.
Confidence: 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 8, 10
Strategy: Limes to win.
Flemington Race 7
Amaethon: Very strange pushing him up to 1600m but last starts over 1400m have been brave and he looks to have been trained for these distances. Weight is now and from the barrier you expect he will have every chance. Can place.
Dayita: Super poor first up. He is a much better horse than that. Extra distance helps today but shows best later in preps. Has to find a lot on that first run.
Eraset: Weighted poorly today against Amaethon. Hard to have at weights. Could place.
Base: First run back showed absolutely nothing so can’t give another shot either.
Backstedt: Didn’t just beat them last start, put them away big time! Almost equal weight today but up in class. Can repeat at best. Just ignore two back run on form. Can lead or take a sit to win. Prefer schofield leading.
Chile Express: Last two runs have been poor compared to previous runs this prep. Won here first up over 1400m. Extra distance not suiting and not going as well. I can’t have.
Streets of Seattle: This distance isn’t him and takes long to get into preps. Never won 2nd up but does improve. Key is 51kg today which brings her in well at weights.
Free of Doubt: Done nothing wrong the last three runs and won well last start at course over 1420m in easier company. Testing material but is good enough.
Bringenbrong: Not the worst run from the back but was no match for the winner. Will be very hard back today and will be running on.
Olly I Am: Hard to see placing today on form. No thanks.
Comments: Hard to pass up Backstedt. If he runs up to last start he wins. If he runs to 3 back, he goes very close.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 10
Strategy: Backstedt to win.
Flemington Race 8
About Square: Well beaten first up and never won 2nd up. Up 2kg today but goes well down the straight. Not the worst here.
Primitive Man: Have to forgive first up run. Way back in class today and will have the room today to run on. Weight looks the only issue.
Fight to the Line: Won a only fairly rated race at MV two back and then last start failed up in class. Weighted very badly today and I can’t have.
Taddei Tondo: 2L off at Mornington last start and this looks harder. Weighted ok after claims but needs to find 3 lengths.
Remagen Bridge: 1500/1600m back to 1200m today. Never run at track, but 2nd 0.2L to sistine demon has to be ok form? I can’t back but can’t ignore for Quad.
Star Impulse: Never won first up or at track. Better over further than 1200m on form and this is a big step up in class.
Clairvaux: Ok runs this prep in much easier company. Times don’t measure up well enough for me.
North Atlantic Ice: Hasn’t returned in form that would be winning this today. I would note that he did go close in 3YO at this track and distance 6 months ago down the straight.
Stars in the Sky: Not even close today with form.
Purculiar: Only won a maiden #please
Miss Promiscuity: There she is. Our next best bet of the day last Saturday who was scratched. The replacement did win which was nice. Her win at Moonee Valley was eye-catching. Down 2.5kg today, will she handle the straight track? The only issue.
Rezoned: Won her maiden well but that was on a slow track. How much progression? Could be a bit of value.
Comments: Run this at MV and Miss Promiscuity beats the 2nd and 3rd favourite by 2 lengths at these weights. Looks something special.
Confidence: 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 11, 12
Strategy: Big bet on Miss Promiscuity. Smaller bet on Rezoned.
Magic Millions Guineas
Scratchings have hurt the field but there are still a few of interest with big futures. My eyes are fixed on a David Hayes runner who travelled well on his way up to QLD in Gracious Prospect. His last start win from start to finish at Flemington was solid, but he can take a sit if needed as proved by previous form. The barrier hurts, but as long as he jumps well, he can get close to or even take the front. He looks progressive and David wouldn’t send him up here without a big opinion of him.
Enquare is the one to beat today and from barrier 2, it’s no surprise why.
Strategy: Backing Gracious Prospect E/W and Enquare to win.
Magic Millions Classic
The profiler for this race is certainly interesting. 18 of the last 20 winners have all won their previous start while 7 of the last 8 have been fillies.
This is a race where barriers mean alot as you can and will get shuffled back if you miss the start or just don’t get into a good position. There are a good 10 chances in this race at very least but one stands out for me.
Stroak is a filly who can race forward or back which is a key for such a race. From barrier 14, she will find it tricky to get a good position going forward early, but if she jumps well, then she is in prime position. Even if she doesn’t start well, sitting midfield, she can win. In a race like this, you can’t back a one trick pony. The price is right for her here.
Strategy: Stroak E/W
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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