Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington, Ipswich, Morphetville and Rosehill on 14 June 2014. The month is kicking along nicely and I just want to point out a horse who was our best on Wednesday called Charmed Harmony who put in one of the best runs I’ve seen in a long time, if you can, go watch the replay of the last race on Wednesday at Sandown.. this is a horse we will be best betting with confidence going forward. Onto today, some rough fields down in Melbourne but we did find some decent bets later in the day. A few nice ones around the country as well with interstate form but there is a lot that could change with track ratings with so much rain around. This has of course been built into form as always. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 Ali Vital
I’ve had my eye on this horse since last prep.. there is just something out it’s turn of foot that is exciting. We were all surprise first up when he snuck past D Dunn not riding out Onpicalo to grab the win. Whether he won or ran second, it was a huge run over the 1600m first up and caught my eye considering the slowish tempo they set out the front. There should be nothing slow today about the tempo in this race and most importantly Ali Vital maps to sit perfectly just off the pace not as far back today from barrier 4. Expect improvement and at the weights, he is a massive chance today at big odds. Savering Tax Evader in the race.
Interstate Best Bet
Morphetville Race 6 Tildy Lad
A very poor race on paper and Tildy Lad comes into it with the best form by a long way. Rain is around tonight and expect to have a suitably wet surface for Tildy Lad to get the best run in. The price on offer is significantly over my ratings and I think the horse wins comfortably today.
Melbourne Next Bet
Flemiongton Race 7 West Africa & Melrose Place
Two horse play to win equal stakes on either horse winning. Both these horses resume today and feature heavily at the front of my blackbook. Both love a wet track and by this stage in the day we should have seen a few MM drop onto the surface to keep it at least a very strong dead rating to slow rating which is what they want. Both should enjoy the distance today while Melrose Place has won on the straight before.
Interstate Next Bet
Rosehil Race 8 Excess Knowledge
Excess Knowledge looks to be a very good horse in the making. Surprised most of us first up over the 1400m in going so close over an unsuitable distance on a track not really suited to front runners. Onto a track that suits front runners, even late in the day, and up to a distance that is perfect based on previous runs, we are getting a very good price today for running in this class of race.
Melbourne Best E/W Bet
Flemington Race 3 Young Tigers Jeuny
Keep the faith with this girl. She ran very well last start all things considered on a Good surface that I don’t believe suits her. Her best runs to date have been on slow or dead tracks including the two back 5L victory on slow at the bool! We get the correct surface today and she is back to a winable grade today off equal weights, everything suits and she shouldn’t be double figure odds today.
Interstate Best E/W Bet
Ipswich Race 5 Griante
Saluted as our best bet last run. Up in class to open company but weighted well and I don’t see much speed in the race which means the outside barrier shouldn’t be of issue. Last start run should have been a 3+ length win but didn’t get ridden out last 150m which makes it look less good than the win actually was! Love these odds today!
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 7, 13, 15
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Not exactly sure what this race is doing first up on the card or infact how we are meant to provide tips for such a race. Form lines are very hard to stack up with most horses having not got within 2L of a win.. but there is always improvement to come.. one never seen horse and one who trialled and didn’t show us much in that. Sit this out.
Comments: Providing a tip because people expect one. Japanese Slipper has handled the long straight at Flemington and went close enough the first two runs. Looks a touch of overs up from 1100m to 1400m.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Japanese Slipper
Flemington Race 2
General Truce: Solid first up record and fly’s down the straight at Flemington. Handles any type of ground as well. Genuine chance off 57kg and is suited by a slow or fast tempo on or off the speed.
Broken: Got a win at MV last prep over the 1000m then didn’t really go on with it. First up run was poor at best at Caulfield but has to improve today and record suggests goes well down the straight here. Better for rain on surface.
Shanghai Warrior: Haven’t seen this guy since March of 2013 and hasn’t won since a Group 3 win over Golden Archer (name from the past!) in 2012 on slow. Track condition will help today and has solid record at track and also at distance. May need the run but reports suggest going well in training..
Nearest to Pin: Excluding three back run where Essay Raider gave them all a good smashing, he has gone close at all his last five starts including a win recorded last start from start to finish. Never placed on the straight but going well enough at weights. No issues with track today either… but best on good?
Doubtfilly: Ran well enough at Doomben first up to run home 1.5L 3rd over the 1100m and then second up 3L 8th at Eagle Farm in Group 2 company last start. Didn’t exactly have to do much in the run that day either.. the drop back to 1100m down the straight first time is hard to understand if you ask me… but the horse will appreciate the give in the ground on form.
Big Buddie: Couldn’t back him last start, he got the easiest time out front and held on. Won’t happen today down the straight. Weighted nicely but up in harder company again and favourites aren’t all back-markers like last start. Need to find 2 lengths.
The Minister: Showed nothing first up. Never placed down the straight and hasn’t won since late 2012. Hard to have here.
The Thief: All three runs here in Melbourne have been solid… but he lacks the will to win. I hate these types of horses that go close go close go close but just don’t get the win. WAY up in class today and happy to oppose.
Comments: A tough race on paper. Top five numbered horses are all in with a chance. Doubtfilly could eat up the ground today and improve, but has to find lengths. Nearest to Pin will go close on previous runs but lacks the straight track maturity of key rivals here. Shanghai Warrior is a big unknown today and Broken back to his best can win. The stand out for me is General Truce who has proven to be a solid option down the straight and goes well first up. A repeat of first up last prep wins this with ease.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: General Truce to win. Saver Shanghai Warrior.
Flemington Race 3
Written: Progressed nicely through the grades last prep. Had about a month and a bit in the yard and back into it. Never won first up but always been fit enough and last prep did record a win second up with the right tactics that day. 56kg and back to 3FB-78 grade off 56kg, she comes into this well weighted. Shown her best on Good tracks is a concern for me.
Vivi Veloce: Hard horse to know what to expect based on previous two runs. The run 3rd to Tango’s Daughter should have been good enough form to go close last start based on all the info we had, but they did go closeish out front that day and it may have made her and a few others look good. Happy to oppose here.
Young Tigers Jeuny: Ran well enough last down but did get a little lost down the straight after leading most of the way. Didn’t seem to be suited by the good track either. Will appreciate the increase to 1400m today so can lead around the bend and not the straight, plus the weaker class today from equal weights without a claim. Probably takes a sit today and base run off two back on slow when killed them all! Big chance.
Fantome Gris: Hasn’t been seen for more than a month after going around favourite and getting beat by Griante. Did run on well enough but didn’t impress me much. Will be stuck far back on the rail needing a lot of luck.
Cobblestones: Very very poor last start and just didn’t handle the ground it seems. Not sure what to make of the run.. did she not make the jump in class? Hard to have any confidence winning here.. only got a R-64 last start. Not for me on previous three runs.
Dig A Pony: A solid enough first up winner in ‘fair’ time on slow first up, will appreciate any rain that comes between now and race-time. Last prep maiden win was also solid but in slow times again.. looks to be a horse who finds her best when there isn’t much pace in the race and is saved to let down in the straight. Needs to improve.
Solar Rock: First up maiden win was average but last start win in FM-64 was ok. 52kg today, has to find another gear but looks an improver.
Good Music: Last two runs have both been solid in similar type of company. Ran on well last start for 6th behind Hot Mama and will sit out the back again today. Suited by any surface.
Davarick: Won well enough in maiden company last start. The time was ok, but has to find another level today and at weights doesn’t seem well suited.
Titian Silk: Last start run in R-64 was unlucky blocked for runs. Has to find much more today as well though but can’t be dismissed.
Liming: Hard to see this girl measuring up taking this step up.
Tsarina Star: Couldn’t win a maiden or FM-58!!!
Comments: I have to keep the faith with Young Tigers Jeuny here back on a wetter track. She seems to find her best on the wet and i’m hoping for even more overnight.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Young Tigers Jeuny E/W
Flemington Race 4
Permit: Showed nothing last start at Randwick, you have to take him on his runs two back and also five back. Shown his best in the past on a Good track which he won’t get today. Top weight of 60kg makes it hard if you ask me. Never placed from 3 goes at track.
Zabeelionaire: Loomed up but meowed late two back at Morphetville when seemed to have every chance from out the front on a slow track. Conditions probably suit today but meets a few good things again. Run last start wasn’t horrible. Can run well.
Crafty Cruiser: Never placed 2nd up into preps and never won at track from 16 attempts. Best record is on slow tracks and has won at distance previously.
Sacred Flyer: Weighted to win today. Run last start behind St Jean was super from far back and down 5.5kg today. The issue for mine is how much better the extra 400m actually made him compared to his very poor Rosehill run previous to that. Is he a false favourite today? Looking at record, all 6 wins have come from 3rd up onwards so does take a while to get into preps.
Mujadale: Very disappointing the last twor uns. Hard to have even at the weights on those runs alone. Positive is that he is the only natural leader.
Picture Editor: Ran very well behind St Jean last start for 3L 4th but is weighted 3kg worse off against Sacred Flyer today for a defeat last start. Hard to have based on that but does find his best on wetter grounds.
Hannaford: Ran well enough last start on Heavy and finally getting up in distance. A horse who should appreciate the extra distance today but at the weights is poorly in this.
McNulty: Doubt he backs up here today but off last two runs couldn’t have anyway in this.
Bombalatomba: Been well backed the last two starts but not shown much at all! 0 places from 4 starts at track and same in class. Not for me.
Krase: Super Steeplechase wins the last two runs over 3400 and 3800m. Back to flat today and always runs well but hard to suggest he actually wins this. Off 51kg though, in this class, you can’t really dismiss him.
Tampere: Showed us enough this prep to suggest he can make the jump to get a place today. continues to always run well but most the time find one too good.
Laconic Lad: Couldn’t win R64’s makes this a hard task. Weighted ok though and that may switch him on? Could place?
Comments: I keep coming back to the prices on how I want to rate this one and I keep coming back to the two back runs of Permit and Sacred Flyer. I have Permit as the value of the race today, but does he win, I don’t think so on this surface based on the form this prep. I’m tipping Sacred Flyer on top, but i’m not sure I can take the price offered. I really do want closer to $3s.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Sacred Flyer to win.
Flemington Race 5
Sasenkile: Won last start in Adelaide in a slowly run 1950m race. Previous to that run was poor but has excuses. Not sure I want him here today.
Medcaut: Downf rom Sydney first up and up in class today. Times from previous three runs are all sound and we can expect a solid tempo to be set. Up in distance might be an issue but decent horse.
King of Manners: Won very well last start way up in class at Moonee Valley on a Slow track. If similar conditions today he is right in this.
Miss Maggiebeel: Rates to win today if handles the ground. Up to 55kg back down in class, she ran very well for 2nd behind Grainte last start and looks suited by the step up in distance.
Turnitaround: A little disappointing last start at MV on the slow. May just not be as good as we thought on the wet. Had no excuses. No thanks from barrier 20.
Word of Mouth: Progressed well this prep and 2.8L 3rd to Sonntag looks decent form lines now after the G1 victory. Maps well enough.
Sanosuke: Couldn’t win a R-64 last start and not really well weighted today. Others preferred to me.
Western Heir: R-64 win just last start at Cranbourne. Hard to see the extra step being made today but has shown some ok form in past.
Amortise: Ran well enough last start winning his maiden at Sandown by nearly 4 lengths, but didn’t really beat much and it was on a slow track. Rates nicely but others preferred to me.
Boombuster: Improved run last start at Flemington. Looked to be back in form back onto a dryer track. Doesn’t get that today. At weights is nicely in here but hasn’t shown us the form on wet tracks to win.
Camacho: Finally slotted home amaiden and then on slow ran well enough last start. Big improvement needed to place.
Madam Gangster: Not sure what to make of her today. Run two back to Griante 0.2L 2nd was impressive on a Good track. Even the 2L 4th to Khutulun previous to that was solid form but last start just didn’t show much weighted nicely.
Theodora: Weighted well enough today compared to Madam Ganster and even miss Maggiebeel. Increase to 2000m should suit on breeding and track condition looks to be no issue today. Will sit mid to back of the field and be hitting the line last it seems. Can run well.
Sure You Can: Have to ignore significantly to win this based on runs and times this prep.
Our Kapow: Couldn’t win a R-58 two or three back. Did improve last start but has to find lengths here.
Leventi: Weighted ok today meeting King of Manners 3.5kg better off today for 3.3L but hard to see that turning it around. Could place.
Tre Dieci: Another maiden only winner who shouldn’t measure up taking another step up.
Zenithal: Very disappointing run last start. Didn’t handle the slow and would only back this guy on Good.
Comments: I get the feeling Medcaut’s best is saved for the Good ground and the wet surface today will get him beat. The tempo will be solid because of him and it will give them from every position a chance. The wetter the better for King of Manners today. Miss Maggiebeel really wants it dryer, failing last start on slow, so hope we do get dead for her sake. A few questions on the distance for a Magnus filly. Amortise was impressive in his maiden win but does he really measure up? Theodora is weighted to win and should run well. Word of Mouth is the stand out based on his progression this prep. He put in a solid run behind Sonntag 3rd last start at Caulfield over this distance and the time was solid enough. Is he this good though? Wide open.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 15
Strategy: Small bets on Word of Mouth and Theodora
Flemington Race 6
Limes: Got his wish last start with a Good track and a fast tempo and got us the chocolates. Up 2kg today for that effort and clear top weight today. Never won on anything but good… but his run well enough on dead and even heavy previously. Never runs a bad race but his best is found on Good.
Dany The Fox: Seemed to have every chance the last two runs but weighed down, againt oday. 2nd up win was solid when had a slow time out front and was too good, that won’t happen today though. Will run well but others favored for mine.
General Peekay: Disappointing run last start at Flemington down the straight… did he not handle the Good track? Rate on his best two back on slow and he comes into this nicely.
Constant Force: On last prep he needs further than this and is better suited to Good ground.
Decircles: Showed enough last start to suggest he can run well today. Surely they don’t try and lead today and set a stupid pace out front like last start.
Henwood: Very disappointing two back but then broke through last start for a nice win on a rain affected track. If we get the rain that is expected he is right in this today at the weights.
Eximius: Blocked for run first up. Just have to forgive on that first up run… better record second up and over this distance.. also nice wet track form.
Post D’France: Average at best first up and will apprectiate the 1400m today.. I think he still needs the 1600m… better 2nd up into preps but first up didn’t show me anything so avoid today.
Tried and Tired: Found out last two starts up in class… but did have excuses for both runs. 2kg better off today against Limes for last start while 0.5kg worse off against Henwood for two back run. Not for me.
Pillar of Creation: Continues to run well this prep but has to find much more today to even place. Up in class again and at weights, others preferred.
Leveraction: Shown nothing really all prep apart from a dead track 13000m win in poor time an dnothing since. No thanks.
Half His Luck: Showed nothing first up. Can’t suggest heplaces on that run or previous prep.
Red Corner: 1.8L 2nd to Charmed Harmony looks ok form on mid-week run, but he has to improve again today.
Sinhala: Continues to run well but this is a step up in class again and just beyond her.
Tristram’s Sun: Big win last start in much easier company. Have to include in Quaddie and frankly for a 3.3L win, you would expect him to be much shorter in the market today.
Comments: Another wide quaddie leg race. This is a wide open race and I just have to go here with the value on offer in Tristram’s Sun. The horse impressed first up and this is certainly a step up, but a repeat of that run means he goes well today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 7, 13, 15
Strategy: Tristram’s Sun E/W
Flemington Race 7
Bring A Ring: Hasn’t been seen since failing on the Gold Coast in Jan 2014. Goes well first up with 2 from 3 starts as winners, but last prep didn’t place. 57kg today, similar class but back to 1000m.. coul dbe too sharp for her? Did fail at $1.90 fav last prep at Morphetville in much easier class than this over 1000m and showed best to win over 1400m. I have to take on without a Good track today.
Melrose Place: The one to beat. If she returns at her best she simply beats this lot. She has previously won down the straight in impressive fashion and her last run of last prep in this class was a close 5th by 0.5L behin Churchill Dancer. She is best suited to rain affected ground and will get that today, making the sharp 1000m a suitable distance with the 58kg. Rates to win.
Il Cavallo: Decently run time last start at Sandown on the wet… he continues to improve as he gets more runs under his belt. Should run well again today up in class here.
Kraftwerk: Every chance at Mornington last start and was pretty disappointing from the tempo put on out front. Need to find another gear today…. but good signs first up run when close 2nd down the straight.
Ilgattino: Every chance leading all the way last start in Adelaide but well beaten by a handy thing. Also found several too good last start at the Bool and two others too good the run behind at Caulfield. Weighted ok but may find a few again too good and only run at track was poor.
Regimental Pride: Shown nothing the last two preps and hard to suggest that changes first up today.
West Africa: Good horse, Breeding suggests rain no issue and so does the maiden win on dead. Scratched from mid-week last week and Kav finally happy to run him. First time down straight always an issue for me.
Maroon Bay: Every chance first up and not good enough. Tempo wasn’t strong nad should have found more. Not today for me here.
Oh So Assertive: Lacked guts last start at Caulfield. Hard to see placing.
Beleeup: Not on two runs this prep.
Comments: Two first up runners appeal today in melrose Place and West Africa. The price on both runners are what I was hoping to get for them so quite keen to run a two horse play here to win equal stakes.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 8
Strategy: 3 units West Africa to win. 1 unit Melrose Place to win.
Flemington Race 8
Ali Vital: Looks the bet of the card today. Super impressive first up at Sandown when over an unsuitable distance in a time that meant he should have been running home late into 4th or 5th… but he found a way to win from back there and steal it over a classy runner in Onpicalo who is a form horse. Up to a more suitable distance today and also gets a wet track plus a long straight, he will have made alot of improvement out of that run as well and from barrier 4, everything is suitable here.
Tax Evader: Up in class and up 2.5kg today, yes he won easily last start at course and similar distance, but this is another step up. I think you have to at least saver him today, but I couldn’t be overly confident on him beating all of these today!
Shenshou Steeds: Ran well enough last start at Sandown but at weights and on that run can’t see him beating ALi Vital.
Orientaped: First two runs this prep have been average at best. This horse needs it heavy and even then a few of these would probably beat it home. Better long into runs.
Blue Ribbon: Not sure what to make of her run last start. Probably have to forgive and rate on two back behind Star Fashion on slow?
Elusive King: Shown nothing all prep and can’t see this changing.
Quick Shakes: Shown nothing either run and ground shouldn’t improve that.
Under The Hat: Run two back was ok at Sandown but this is MUCh harder at the weights and his not really suited to the wetter surfaces. Not won since 2012.
New York: Up to his more pet distances today on what I remember of this horse but his last win was over 1200m and his best run this prep was over that also. Best surface is dead but doesn’t really handle slow.
Pepin Hoaks: Every chance the last few runs and hasn’t produced. Can’t see that changing in this grade!
Live for Today: Progressing through the grades slowly, I think he is weighted ok today on previous runs. Goes best on slow or heavy tracks. Jockey change hurts I feel. So does gate!
Aeratus: Won three in a row in lesser grades but just finds a way to win. Barrier hurts today and will get furhter back than last few runs. Has the ability but has to improve today again.
Aurum Spirit: Ran well last start but never beating Tax Evader and hard to see him turning that around today at the weights.
Wrotham Heath: Every chance last two starts but just couldn’t find ways to win. Not for me here.
Get Out of Town: Not going well enough this prep and needs further to find best IMO.
Beneficiary: Good run three back but that was MUCH easier class and less distance. No thanks.
Comments: Ali Vital is the bet of the day. Should be much shorter in the market. Maps to get the run of the race and is a tough horse who won’t give in. Have to saver Tax Evader.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 12
Strategy: Ali Vital to win. Saver Tax Evader.
Ipswich Race 5
Three runners here who stand out.
Jazz Song should have won last start in much harder company and just got unlucky. Two back was nice behind Srikandi but I feel the key to her will be a dead track today. Big chance from barrier.
Spitfire Lady is back from a NZ campaign which saw three seconds, a 2L 9th in Group 1 company and then a fail on heavy. Comes into this weighted nicely and in some deecnt form, but has to improve.. maps well.
Finally we have our favourite Griante who won very well as our best bet last start. Times don’t do the run justice as she wasn’t ridden out the final 150m! Back to 1350m the worry today from an outside barrier, but she can win from the front or midfield… but there isn’t exactly much speed in the race outside of Tukiyo from barrier 2 who has only led one of the past five races. \
Comments: I don’t like the 3YO to open class jump, but Griante is very classy and can make the jump.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Griante to win. Smaller bet Jazz Song.
Ipswich Race 7
One of the toughest Cups i’ve seen in a while, I can’t believe one of these horses is going to take the prize in a 180k race!
Anyway, Brave Ali is the runner who stick outs as the key hope. It’s not often I go with Queensland form, but I can’t see a reason to knock him here. He is the only real speed in the race and last start he just ran it too fast ou tthe front. Harrison should be able to run it a little slower today and he will take improvement out of a wetter track today. He could steal this by putting them all to sleep.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Brave Ali E/W
Morphetville Race 6
A very poor race on paper with on exception in Tildy Lad. Very good slow track win last start at course and similar distance and with 6.5mm of rain today, you know the track will have a lot of give that he is wanting in it. The clear class runner on form.
Comments: Very happy to take the $2.8 on offer.
Confidence 85%
Startegy: Tildy Lad to win
Rosehill Race 2
A race full of potential but none more so than Amovatio. He was an impresisve winner at course and distance last start off a solid enough tempo out the front. He maps out the back again today but there is a small field again which helps. Ball of Muscle has been well backed but the form doesn’t read well if you ask me with the times ran.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Amovatio to win.
Rosehill Race 3
Almost fell off my chair when I saw $15+ for Romantic Moon.. finished off nicely last start at Rosehill… can be ridden more forward today from barrier 3 and weighted nicely over a distance that suits… but I believe if the ground is any worse than Dead 5, then she isn’t the right price. Only back before the race if dead track.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: E/W Romantic Moon as long as not slow or heavy track.
Rosehill Race 4
Express Power missed the start first up in a similar class of race and finished off strongly blocked for a run in the final 200m also. Up to 1400m looks suitable today in this grade. Should sit midfieldish with a lot of horses wanting to be very forward and a few wanting to be very far back.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Express Power on the E/W.
Rosehill Race 8
Excess Knowledge looks a very good chance today up in class, down in weight but up 600m to 2000m. A 3YO-Gp3 2nd over in the UK tops out this horses record and the first up run showed us that the horse is ready to start putting in some solid runs. Not up against any horses that really blow you away today and most importantly, at rosehill where leaders are always favoured.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Excess Knowledge to win
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