Horse Racing Form for Flemington and Morphetville Saturday 10 August 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington. In my down time I have been going over my notes from the different tracks and have found that Moonee Valley form really hasn’t been stacking up at Flemington over the past couple of years and that has led our tips at Flemington to less than desirable results compared with Moonee Valley the past 6 months. While I have switched things up a little bit in terms of how I rate the MV runs, the tips are fairly similar and will be going forward. The two ‘best’ didn’t do to plan last week but Alpha Proxima at $15s as the Best Value certainly finished the card with a bang. The quaddie was a bit of a ‘what if’ moment with the winner of the first leg being taken out of the Quaddie on review to trim it all up.. 14k later, you live and learn! As always, I hope you form stacks up with mine! The new website is getting very close. We have it up on the dev site and we really want to get it all right before launching it. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 Road Trippin’

Next Best
Flemington Race 9 Are There Any

Best Value
Flemington Race 6 Captain Fancypantz

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Flemington Race 1
Probably the most interesting race of the day. I want you remember that straight races are 100X different form wise to a race around a corner. Form sometimes just doesn’t measure up so that is why I am always willing to take on those first up down the straight with someone who is proven on the straight tracks.
Baron Douro: Goes well at the track. Runs this prep have only been fair but he should run well today. Weight is the major issue.
Dehere Hunter: Ran well enough firs tup but heavy so just forgive. 59kg today after claim a little harsh but can go close.
Donovans: Poor first up run on heavy but you have to forgive. Won 2 from 3 at distance but mabey looking for further? Never won 2nd up before.
Al Jandar: Three runs this prep solid enough to suggest can place.
Sergius: Not good enough on recent form lines.
About Square: Most interesting runner in the race. Went close last two starts in MUCh harder and 59kg today probably does have his measure, but if he can get an easy run along, can go close.
Expletive Deleted: Not sure he will measure up at the weights on the ground.
Snip Esprit: hard to be winning this on recent form.
Angels Beach: The short price favourite of the race. Only got the 1.5L win last start in mid-week class and this is her first step up to city Saturday. Off 58kg and down the straight, you have to take her on.
Esprit Rossa: Very talented runner who comes into this very well. Win over Captivating Lady looks solid now and the previous runs to that were solid. Off 56kg gives a big chance. Only issue is distance.
Tudor Glen: Only going average. Not good enough to WIN.
Lingo: Stole a win last prep in easy grade. This is a step above.
Lourdeaux: Not the worst here on form lines. Don’t dismiss. Should be there with them.
Our Protocol: Not going well enough.
Our Inheritance: Form lines won’t hold up here.
Stella Command: Interesting runner. Solid form lines but up a lot in weight today the only issue. Getting old.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: I’m happy to Lay Angels Beach here at the current price of Odds On. About Square look progressive enough to go close while Esprit Rossa’s form lines are good enough.

Flemington Race 2
Resistant: Ran well last three starts at track and weighted well enough again today off 57kg to compete.
Great Esteem: Great run last start at course and distance before going for a spell. First up run was average at best though? Up 2kg today and up against others with potential improvement as well. Will he handle the slow ground as well? Big questions to be answered. If dead, then not as many to be answered. Yard does have a BIG opinion of him.
Jade’s Boy: Showed BIG improvement last start when 5L winner in 2YO class 13 runner field on slow ground. Absolutely ate the ground up and gets it here today. Looks value.
Gearstick: Very interesting runner. 2YO grade went close last two starts and weighted well today. Is he good enough? Go well here.
Salute To Jude: Beat Gearstick two back but worse off at weights today. Ran well enough last start behind Monkstone but has to show a lot more.
Mahican: Moody runner who hasn’t been seen since failing up in Sydney. Hard to have unless looks a million $$$ in the yard.
Saralago: Maiden winner. Open to improvement and ran well enough on slow.
Dynamic Balance: Hard to have. Couldn’t win a maiden.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Could never be confident on anything in a race like this but Jade’s Boy does appeal and should slightly drift as many tipsters have Great Esteem as their best for the day.

Flemington Race 3
Friday Hussy: Very solid Hayes runner down in class and weight today. Ran well enough last start but the step up back to 2000m is going to help. Wide barrier the main issue. Has every chance.
Innocent Lady: Didn’t seem to handle the heavy last start. Never won on dead or slow and never placed on dead previously.. very strange horse to get a hold of when you consider the great good and heavy form lines yet nothing in the middle! Looks well weighted for the class all things considered and can’t be dismissed.
Red Typhoon: Not going well enough to offer any suggestion of a chance today.
Bonne Nuit: Good win last start at the Valley and previous run was solid enough. Big difference today up to 2000m and up in weight.
Minh Khai: Won her last 3 runs in a row and off 54kg comes into this with every chance. If this was a heavy track, would be the best here by a mile, but even so, you can’t dismiss as has gone well enough on slow and dead.
Lonhruge: Good win over First Course last start on Heavy and First Course went close midweek again. Beriman rides again and only issue is the ground.
You’re Discreet: Very talented runner who has spent a fair bit of time running well in Adelaide. Back over to Melbourne today and comes here with every chance off two recently strong runs.
Bitola: Disappointing last two runs and prefer heavy going.
Mauritius: Hard to touch on previous runs. Not up to this.
Eliza Blues: Ran very well last start at Moonee Valley and could very well be suited today by step up to 2000m.
Bonny Jeunesse: Weighted poorly today on previous form lines. Could place.
Princess Peggy: Last two runs have been strong and Williams takes the ride. Needs to improve today though to go close.
Zazparella: Hard to suggest the form of this horse who won a maiden three back will hold up today.
Miss Matty: Good run last start in harder company. Does need a fair bit of luck to improve enough today and maps poorly. Still every chance if gets a run.
Sacred Dream: Not good enough for this today.
Littleriver Ruby: Won well enough last start but this is a step up again today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Eliza Blues on top from Minh Khai

Flemington Race 4
Chiaramonte: Hard horse to place here today. The weight does look very harsh and the only run on wet tracks was a big fail. Goes best on Good. Hard to have at weights.
Hotham Heights: Never won at distance but placed 6 from 7. Never won at track but placed 2 from 4. Last few runs have been solid but not good enough for this at the weights today I suspect.
Pocket Rockets: Very interesting runner here today over from Adelaide. Goes very well on any ground and off 56kg after claims, could be value.
Gossip Girl: A horse I absolutely love watching. Goes well first up and likes this track. Last win was at this track over 1200m but 1000m is fine as well. Has form on good slow or dead tracks and can run on from any position. Weighted well enough and if at best today, can go close.
Weekend Special: Big win last start at course and distance on heavy.. goes well on any ground but best is heavy it seems. Won’t get that today. Still a big chance but weight is an issue.
Roman Treasure: First up for almost 8 months since being imported from USA. Moody runner. Has won 4 from 13 at class and goes well at distance. Hard to judge, watch the money.
Run Diego: Last two runs have been very solid. Weighted well enough but is this another step up? Hard to say.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Very good win first up over in Adelaide and comes here today weighted well enough. Important to note she ran 2nd to Vain Queen and Vicario last prep by 0.8L and 0.4L which is very solid.
Paaratte Pat: Talented horse whose best runs have come at the Valley.. but last two runs at track were nothing to scoff at. Best surface seems to be on Good and doesn’t get that today. Don’t dismiss.
Columbus: Hard to rate here today. Hayes runner who always have to keep your eye out and has won at track.. but last win was in 2011!
Star Lani: 5YO who has only had 4 runs to date. Very strong win here two back beating Loveyamadly. Last start was injured during the race. Weighted very well today and if at best, goes close.
Snip The Dancer: Weighted well but hard to see the progression on how he finished last prep. Only ever won a maiden.
Beauty Cash: Doesn’t look in this class of race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Prettyhappyaboutit looks weighted to win while if Gossip Girl returns in best form, she will be hard to pass!

Flemington Race 5
Lucky Eighty Eight: Never won first up and last 4 runs were not even close. Not winning this on runs this prep.
Clang and Bang: Down in class and up in distance today. Has the ability but needs to improve 2-3 lengths today really.
Why Not: Fairly disappointing last prep but word from the yard is that he has finally settled in. Probably looking for further though.
Road Trippin’: Ran well enough last start but previous run was very poor at Flemington being given a horrible ride by Bossy. Off the 56kg today down in grade, is certainly one of the horses to beat.
Under The Hat: Needs to find 3 lengths today that probably isn’t there.
Niptious: Horrible first up. Down to 52kg today but not sure he is up to this at his old age.
Bellissimo: Doesn’t rate well enough to be in this today.
Hiphopopotamus: Poor first up on heavy and takes a while to get into his preps. Hard to have.
Now And Zen: A horse with quality last prep, finally stepping up to a winable distance.. but the wetter it is, the worse his chances.
Bel Thor: Big win last start in very easy class on Heavy. Looks under the odds all things considered. Still has a chance but I couldn’t back him.
Stereosonic: Ran well enough last start but poorly weighted compared to Road Trippin’.
Olly I Am: Hard to see on recent performances.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Road Trippin’ gets another chance today. Conditions look to be suited and should position well enough to be hitting the line well.

Flemington Race 6
Folding Gear: Never won first up and never won at distance or placed at track from 5 starts. Here for the run.
Tuscan Fire: Not the worst runner you have ever seen at this distance but obviously just here for the run… but off 55kg.. just never know.
Magnifique Soleil: Big win last start at course and slightly further. Back in distance is a BIG issue for me today but he is weighted 1kg better off. The BIG difference is the ground that is slow to dead. He is 100X better horse on a GOOD track.. almost unbeatable it seems. Can go close but needs less rain affected for mine.
Lady’s Angel: Loves it wet but won’t get it the way she wants it. Was very poor first up and even though she will take a sit today instead of what happened last start, it’s hard to see the progression.
Reparations: Absolutely huge run and win last start at Caulfield. Goes very well on dead tracks which it probably will be by Race 6 and if he can repeat the run of last start, he is the one to beat here.
Veewap: Good run behind Reparations last start but only 1kg better off today makes it hard especially seeing the horse has never won from 10 starts at this track.
Zabisco: Never won first up but this horse is no mug. Only issue is I think it does need the extra 200-400m to find best.
Mr Griswold: Not winning this on last few runs.
Henwood: Good win last start at Moonee Valley but before that disappointed at course on Heavy. The ground is clearing up so shouldn’t be an issue today and will certainly prefer the corner than the straight. Only issue is getting a run.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Fairly disappointing last start. and will find it hard leading this up today. Need to find a lot more. Ground won’t be what he wants.
Rebel Truce: Ran very well here three back over the 1200m and last start in adelaide went very close. Weighted well enough to go very close today off 51kg.
Weissmuller: Won a 3YO GP3 over 1600m in NZ but failed in everything after that. Weighted well but hard to see the form holding up.
Captain Fancypantz: Very solid win two back in Open class. Stepped up a little beyond reach last start but hit the line very well.. so well that Pago Rock was next to him on the line. Down 4.5kg today and down in class… the replay confirmed the run and that he wants the straight. Most importantly, Maps to be midfield today. Big overs here today! If you are interested, you can watch his run last start.. dead last by what looks 2 lengths coming around the turn with the black hat (http://youtu.be/FMAfXzHwV_w?t=3m54s).
Hunger: Weighted much better today but will he measure up here? Hard to say.
Wrotham Heath: Tough to see the horse measuring up first up here.
Our Nkwazi: Need to produce something special today. Needs more rain. .
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 11, 15
Strategy: Backing Captain FancyPantz on the E/W while also betting Reparations to win.

Flemington Race 7
Luckygray: 4 from 5 first up record but first up last start at course and distance in Group 1 was way below best. Never run on a slow track before but won 2 from 3 on dead. Been off long enough and should be right to compete. 4 runs in Victoria for 0 places is a bad stat though.
Temple of Boom: Loves it wet and certainly will get that today.. But you have to wonder if he is at his best.. hasn’t been the last two preps.
Ferlax: Won a Group 1 at 3.. but how good were the runners? Not this level good IMO. Back to 1200m but is 2/2 over this distance in MUCH easier grades. Probably looking for further.
Riziz: Last start won his first ever race on a Good track quite well.. The class of runners here is certainly harder today but he is weighted well again. Won 1 from 1 on slow and 5 from 6 on dead so hard to be against.. also 2 from 2 at track.
Pelicano: Loved it wet last prep and should again.. but is a 2000+ metre runner.
Broken: Ran well enough at track two back on heavy but has to improve again to be in this. Not so sure.
Keep Cool: Won first up previous, at distance and also at track twice… but this isn’t the end game for the horse and is looking for a dryer track. Looking forward Caulfield Cup.
Draw Forward: Good enough run last start behind Octavia but first time at track and average form at best in the wet… needs to improve a lot for this.
Cavallo Nero: Likes it wet with a good run last start but this is much harder and others are way better weighted.
Falcent: Ran well enough this prep but not up to this grade.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4
Strategy: I can’t see this race being taken out by a horse other than Riziz or LuckyGray. Riziz.gets the nod on this track from LuckyGray who has to be saved.

Flemington Race 8
Noble Warrior: NZ runner first up in Australia and you know what I say everytime about that. NZ runners RARLY ever win first here in city class, which you saw the $1.70 fav NZ in R1 MV last week get done as well. He looks a solid horse but 7YO and weighted poorly.
Storm Burst: Good run last start behind MG. Meets 4kg better off today which does appeal.
Midnight Glory: Strong win last start but giving up a fair bit of weight today. If wins, won’t be by more than a head today.
Upbeat: Very disappointing last start but wasn’t suited by the work. Forgive if you want but never placed at Flemington ever.
Pepin Hoaks: Huge run last start off a massive tempo. Down in class and up 2kg looks fair. Could be value?
Savvy Dancer: Hard to see the win. Shown nothing this prep.
Supremacy: Average runs this prep. Hard to have.
Sea Skye: Very progressive the last two starts and off 54kg today could go very close.
St Mark: Did enough right last start and better weighted today. Genuine Chance.
Fantastic Porscha: Good win in easy grade. Big step up.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 10, 11
Strategy: Pepin Hoaks gets the nods at a big price today from Storm Burst.

Flemington Race 9
Means a Lot: Ran on very well behind Octavia last start off a tempo that certainly didn’t suit. Back in class today and onto a track better suited off 57kg.. looks a huge chance.
Berrimilla: Good form up in Sydney and heads on down here claiming 2kg today down to 57kg. Solid enough form.
Danish Whiskey: Surprise winner last start at course and distance. Up 4.5kg today and back onto non-heavy ground is a massive issue.
Mosse Diva: You just can’t waste any more money on her this prep. Hayes wasn’t confident in his yard update this week either. Weighted at the top of the weights again and barrier is the major issue.
Aeronwy: Talented horse who has been off a fair while. 56kg looks fair and if produces best can take this.
Sensational Report: Hasn’t shown enough this prep.
Miss Middleton: Tassy Raider who has won 3 in a row this prep but from barrier 15 will be going back to dead last almost and need to pass every runner today. Hard to see it.
Angelic Lass: Talented runner who needs to step up today to have a chance. Not sure she is there yet.
Diazling: Not good enough today on recent runs.
Tranquera: Strike last start off the record on heavy. Previous run behind Koe was sensational and worth following down in class today at equal weight and Boss goes on.
Doll In Hi Heels: Good win last start but this is significantly harder.
Are There Any: Very unlucky last start blocked several times. Should have won that race. Back in class today and the one to beat.
Angela’s Dream: Hard to see her reversing the form on a few in this race.
Halo Miss Maher: Not in this.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 12, 16
Strategy: Are There Any is the clear stand out in this race and gets the top pick from

Morphetville Race 5
There really isn’t much depth to this race and that is why it’s hard to ignore Quick Snitzel. Down to 54.5kg today back to a very winable grade and from Barrier 1 with Meech on board. None of these runners have been in the fields he has and he looks a good price today.
Confidence 75%

Morphetville Race 7
The key race of the day with some runners with awesome ability. My initial reaction to the race was ‘Geez Happy Trails is short here today’.
There are three key runners here for me.
Happy Trails is the obvious. He has run well in the past over this distance including a win at the course and distance two preps back. Being a WFA, he comes in very well at the weights today and barrier 8 maps him well. Only issue is how wet the track will be.
Budriguez is a very talented runner who beat home Melbourne Cup favourite Puissance De Lune over 1600m last prep and then went on to win a Group 3 (ran 3rd in a WFA-G2 also). He has won twice at this distance and once at this track. Never run on slow or heavy a concern though as well.
The final runner is Meliora who Meech has come over to ride it seems (it and QUick Snitzel). She produced an eye catching run last prep at Caulfield winning by 3.5L from start to finish. If returns at her best, she simply won’t be passed.
You really are taking the runners on trust, but i’m sure they wouldn’t be running if they are going to fail on the Slow surface and there could be a chance of an upgrade to dead.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Meliora and Budriguez to win.

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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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