Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington and Randwick on 4 October 2014. Three group 1s and a lot of group meetings to come today. Don’t go crazy as these are wide-open and will determine the spring pecking order. A fair bit will be decided today by the scratchings and it may even account for another best bet or two being added. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 Kaizean
Simply put, this horse is so well weighted it’s nuts today. Got at least 2kg on the rest of the field for less than a 0.5L defeat them all. Very blessed by the handicapper and also the price on offer. 85% confidence tells you what we think of the bet!
Melbourne Next Bet
Flemington Race 5 Bounding
NZ Group 1 winner who measured up in the class over here in Aus last prep as well. Very keen to take on the fav here and Bounding is weighted so well it’s crazy for the potential of the horse.
Melbourne Best Value
Flemington Race 9 Under The Louvre
Close to double-figure odds were bet early week and we are now into $6.50 best price. The value is still there for UTL who is rated at worst a $4 shot on my books and is huge overs once again today, especially on the E/W.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 8, 9, 16, 19
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 11
Promotions
Sportsbet
Place a win bet on the Epsom Handicap or Turnbull Stakes (can bet both) and if you horse runes 2nd or 3rd, money back up to a maximum of $100 per race.
Luxbet
Run second in the Epsom Handicap? Get paid out as the winner #BOOM! Dissident was for us last week (Max payout up to $500 – first single bet only applies)
Ladbrokes
Flemington Race 2 – If your first fixed odds bet in Race 2 loses, money straight back into your account ($20 max)
Best Tote or SP + 20% on Epsom Handicap.
Winx $3.40 (Max bet $50)
Betfair
Power Picks
Win 20% on your chosen Chris Waller Runner in the Epsom OR Back any non-Waller runner and get money back if you run second to a Waller trained horse (Max bet $50)
Money back if your horse runs second or third in the Turnbull ($50 max bet) OR Win 50% more on the Turnbull Stakes trifecta ($200 max bonus winnings)
TAB
Run 2nd or 3rd in the Turnbull and get your bet back (maximum $50) as a bonus bet. *Need to have an account and I believe this is via digital only, i can’t find a link, got emailed to me*
Bookmaker
Money back as bonus bet ($50 max bet) if your first fixed odds bet in Race 3 and/or Race 4 at Flemington comes 2nd to SP favourite.
Winx $3.40 (Max bet $50)
Sportingbet
Run 2nd in Turnbull Stakes? Money back as bonus bet. Maximum bet $100
Centrebet
Run 2nd to favourite in any Group 1 this Saturday, money back (Max $100) as a bonus bet
Betstar
Money back if your first fixed odds win bet on Turnbull Stakes runs 2nd or 3rd (max bet $50 and come sback as a bonus bet)
BetEasy
Back the winner in the Epsom? Get a matched bonus bet up to $50
Unibet
Place four individual $20 bets, win or lose, on any separate racing event on selected race days during Spring, and the 5th is on us – $20 cash bonus deposited into your account
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
All first starters who have trialled before, but not many if any are available to watch on replay.
Very disappointing race to start such a quality meeting.
Comments: I’ve heard very good things about Our Red Dog and how it trialled. Simply on that basis and the times being thrown around it is top pick.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Our Red Dog E/W
Flemington Race 2
Firehouse Rock: Mapped very well last start at Caulfield and hit the front at the right time just holding on. Giving weight to others today brings him back to the group and probably pushes one or two ahead of him.
Light Up Manhattan: Talented Colt who put in some very good runs in his first prep and is crying out for this distance. Got his maiden win last start but wasn’t exactly impressive. Has to find much more here at weights.
Hawking: Ran very well at huge odds for us last start. Can improve onwards from that performance again today but has to find much more. Will be exposed in the straight.
War Point: Loomed up but just didn’t have the heart to get the win. Weighted very well today down 2.5kg and rates to go close. Longer straight suits big time.
Eastern Cape: Find this grade hard. Couldn’t win BM-64 last start so hard to see hte jump being successful off that run.
Magicool: Maiden winner who just missed a win last start in 3YO-64 rating. Hard to see this jump.
Breath of Life: A little green last start and continues to run well. 1kg worse off than a few others here though.
San Padre: Decent enough maiden win first up but this is another step again. Needs the run.
Justaway: Only gains 0.5kg from last start run today. Did finish off very well and will be a long way back again today.
Atmosphere: Strong enough runs last two in decent times from unsuitable tempos. Has to find more again.
The Mighty Jrod: Totally outclassed last start and will be again today.
Verreaux: Finished off nicely last start in maiden grade. Looks to be improving but rates still slightly below this grade.
Kaizaen: The best weighted horse in this race by a mile. Gains at least 2kg on any other runner today and maps very well from barrier 7. Wins on repeat of last ratings run.
Imperial Lass: Too far back and a bit of bad luck last start… but this is harder and hard to see measuring up without it being wet.
Comments: I’m normally not very keen to play in a race like this but Kaizaen and War Point stand out like sore thumbs.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Kaizaen to win. Saver War Point.
Flemington Race 3
Sea Moon: This is a horse who is a Group winner and has won over $1,000,000 in prize money. Serious type. Loves a good track and goes very well first up. This is his distance and from barrier 2 with Oliver onboard, I can’t see a reason to doubt him.
Who Shot The Barman: Good win last start and will improve again today over the 2500m… but what did he beat last start? I think at the weights he is on par with Sea Moon at best and there will be a huge battle to the line today. He won his NZ Group 1 with 52.5kg remember and has 57.5kg today. Boss a huge negative also.
Ibicenco: Battled on to the line but never looked the winner last start. Will improve up in distance today but has to find Much more.
Ethiopia: Shown nothing to impress me since he was 3. Not here.
Marksmanship: Been found out up in this class the last few runs and expecting that to occur again today. Distance does suit and can place.
Anudjawun: How far can this old boy go this prep? Looks out of depth here but last start was a good effort and could place?
Master’s Degree: Good horse who was very disappointing first and second up. Continues to improve and getting to his distances but is way outclassed at weights today.
Waltzing To Win: Ran 3rd in a very poorly rated Group 3 last pre over in Adelaide. Based on first three runs needs to find much more today but distance will suit.
Back To Abilene: couldn’t win a BM-64 last two starts says it all really.
Comments: At the prices, I simply have to take on Who Shot The Barman. Sea Moon should be much closer in the market.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Sea Moon to win.
Flemington Race 4
Petrology: Every chance first two runs this prep on the rides given, just not good enough to place. Up to 1400m looks a strange but fair move… but went 1200m back to 1000m and up to this.. they don’t know what to do with the horse?
Wandjina: Stormed home from the back last start and was an eye-catcher. Certainly has the ability but hasn’t been missed in the markets.
Forgive and Forget: Two back run was solid enough but last start ridden to lead just didn’t suit off a fast tempo. Forgive and will run much better today.
Royal Standing: Maiden win on Heavy was only fair. Last prep over course and distance ran a 0.5L 5th to Merion worth considering. Has the ability.
Coram: Last two runs have been very disappointing. Didn’t measure up down in class last start. Hard to see.
Staviva: Won well enough at Mornington last start. Have to respect here.
Stratum Star: Maiden winner who just missed the BM-64 win last start. Big concerns over a horse like this who can’t tough out a win in that class.
Lazyaxl: Ran well enough first up to suggest have to consider him a place chance here.
Manhattan Avenue: Very disappointing run last start. Never measured up in this class and only decent runs in maidens. Not for me.
Deconstructed: Ran well enough last start at Caulfield but just found a few too good. Up to 1400m has to be a positive but that is a big jump considering they started at 1000m.
Schneller: Good win in maiden on slow two back. Last start poor.
Kapset: Expected to lead from barrier and shouldn’t get much of a hassle from others. Not sold on this runner.
Royal Appointment: Couldn’t win a maiden either run and then thrown in here? No thanks.
Comments: Price on offer for Forgive and Forget is the main and only real value in the race. Wandjina goes close today but the price is under what i’d want.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Forgive and Forget E/W
Flemington Race 5
River Lad: Showed HUGE progression last prep to take out a Group 3 and follow that up with a sensational Group 1 win over the Boom horses. Firs tup form is sound and likes a good track but clearly did show best form over further.
Smokin’ Joey: Broke though for the Group 1 win last prep over this distance in Adelaide. Has the sectionals to go well today.
Flamberge: Very poor run up in class last start. Must improve lengths or simply get back to best to have a chance.
Chautauqua: 6kg worse off against Temple of Boom today as an example of how poorly weighted he is today. Not only that, he gets the very horrible barrier 1 and could get trapped, especially trapped in the bad section of the track. Looks huge unders here.
Temple of Boom: Brave effort first up for 2.5L 2nd. 6kg better off on Chautaqua and looks weighted to go close or even win. Big Chance.
Limes: Not the best first up record but has won. Only wins on Good tracks which he should get today but better suited to 1400m.
Essay Raider: Very disappointing first up. Goes much better down the straight but this looks a class above unless he puts in a peak run.
Final Crescendo: Way above his class range this today on ratings. No thanks.
Il Cavallo: Didn’t return as the same horse who won by 4.3L down this straight to finish last prep. Is 3rd up but really can’t see a repeat of that run on first two runs.
Longma: Looking for further to find best. Can run well but can’t see winning.
Bounding: So well weighted today it’s crazy. This is a Group 1 winning horse. Won 5 from 8 on a good track and won two of last 3 at this distance all group races… only loss was a close 2nd at Randwick to Sidestep on slow. Huge value.
Comments: Chautauqua is poison odds today and I want to take the horse on from the barrier and weights.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Bounding to win. Saver Temple of Boom.
Flemington Race 6
Veuvelicious: Massively disappointing both runs this prep basedon last prep. Weighted nicely here but the barrier hurts alot.
Fontein Ruby: Progressed onwards all this prep. Last start run wasn’t the bes tit has to be said and needs to find more here.
Crafty: Very disappointing first up run. Best seen on slow tracks and looking for sting out. Not today for me.
Golconda: Thrown in the deep end all runs this and last prep but hasn’t measured up. Not good enough.
Royal Ocean: Very strong win last start in Adelaide beating what was one of the best bets around the country of the day in betsy. Measured up in class previously also at 2. Times are sound enough but has to improve again.
Pittsburgh Flyer: All 3 runs this prep warranted respect. Improved onwards again last start up in distance and should again today. Probably surprise if gets the win today but huge place chance.
Not A Happy Camper: Shown nothing to suggest she can win this today on first two runs. No thanks.
Maastricht: BM-64 winner, but Hawkes stable and she won well in the Bm-64. Big step up.. looks good enough to take it. Very short price today though?
Miss Interiors: Maiden only winner. Every other run has been poor. No thanks.
Dane Hussler: Every chance second up behind Royal Ocean but not good enough. Can place.
I’m A Flying Star: Failed hard trying to lead last start at Caulfield. Previous win at Sale was good. Best seen with sting out. Not happening.
Little Hottie: Won well a fairly average race first up. Has to find much more but rates ok.
Choix De Maia: Couldn’t win a maiden or place in a 3YO-64. No thanks.
Hipster Girl: Couldn’t win a maiden!
Comments: I keep coming back to Royal Ocean on my form. Rates to win and has the fitness and class factor.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 9
Strategy: Royal Ocean E/W
Flemington Race 7
Green Moon: Never won with 59kg. First up run was decent without impressing. Can’t have.
Happy Trails: Returned to best form last start over 1800m and step to 1200m will see him get close to if not home in first. Huge chance.
Super Cool: Continues to run solid sectionals but never being a winning chance. Down 1.5kg today looks set to have a good run.
Hawkspur: Opting for Melbourne over Sydney? Gutsy! Best runs shown on wet tracks but has the dry track ability. Barrier hurts significantly.
The Offer: Last few runs not been as good as everyone is trying to suggest.. Only battled home last start and from Barrier 15 I couldn’t be near.
Silent Achiever: Very poor the past two runs and i’m concerned she won’t line up in any cup or plate the way she is going. Has to flick a switch.
Pussiance De Lune: He continues to just battle his way to the line without looking a winning hope. Down to 56.5kg, he is well in at the weights and most importantly, maps from barrier 2 perfectly. Hard to ignore on weights even if not at his best.
Lidari: Take nothing away from his last start front running ride. Was a solid tempo and stuck on really well. Could win this.
Thought Worthy: Shown nothing this prep or last prep. No thanks.
Shoreham: Not in this class. Shouldn’t get a run.
Entirely Platnium: Sectionals were very solid last start at Caulfield and looking to go one better today. Will have his chance but should find 1 or 2 too good.
Gris Caro: Race run to suit last start at Caulfield and stole the win and run in the Caulfield Cup. Weighted poorly also.
Brambles Big step up in class again. Won 1 of last 2 in great style and weighted nicely today. Small chance.
Lucia Valentina: Inspected today and nothing found wrong with her. Lameness cleared up and she is fine. Rates to win this off a decent tempo or push further forward. Our top pick.
Stipulate: Running very well this prep with a win over Brambles on record. Can win if good enough.
Let’s Make ADeal: Shown nothing this prep for mine. No thanks.
Albonetti: If the horse gets a run, it can win. Had a faster final 400m in the 2000m Naturalism than Silent Achiever over 1600m in the Underwood. Albonetti ran a 22.87 final 400m.. the next best was 23.27 from Entirely Platnium in the Underwood. Albonetti final 800m 45.16. Next best in race was 45.76 (Our Voodo Prince who finished 8th) & 45.92 Entirely Platinum 2nd.. The Offer 45.28 Happy Trails 45.29 in the 1600m race final 800m. Albonetti’s was better over the 2000m!
Comments: Tough feature race. Lucia Valentina on top while Albonetti goes very close if gets a run and the $26 to place is nuts.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 8, 9, 16, 19
Strategy: Lucia Valentina to win. Smaller E/W on Albonetti.
Flemington Race 8
May’s Dream: Very average first up. Up to 1400m helps but still not finding her best here today.
Bonaria: Dived for the line late but not good enough at Flemington. barrier 2 today is ideal but needs to get a split at the right time to have a chance saving ground.
Lonhspresso: Up in distance today has first two runs over much shorter in harder class have been poor. Hard to see.
Politeness: Very good run 4th first up. Improve onwards today and the extra distance suits. Finds best on wetter surfaces.
Enquare: Ran better than expected first up but still has a lot of ground to find to beat all of these today.
Girl In Flight: Won well enough two back at Morphetville and then failed to finish prep. Ran Solicit to 1.3L at 1400m last prep as well. Has the ability but hard to see the progression first up at this distance.
Mezeray Miss: Just ignore she went around last start and rate on previous run which looks good. Maps well. Player.
Minnie Downs: Firs tup run was too poor for words. Hard to consider on that run.
Jessy Belle: Ran home well enough without impressing first up. Looks outclassed again.
Suavito: Layed in which cost her the race last start at Caulfield. Longer straight will give her more time to get a run from barrier 7 and has no excuses today.
Scratchy Bottom: Needs the run today. Hard to see her measuring up at this distance range.
Nautical: Super run 3rd to Commanding Jewel/Dear Demi last start course/distance. barrier the massive issue deciding where she gets during run.
Forever Loved: Hard to see where the improvement comes from for the Waterhouse runner.
Nadeem Lass: Made herself a contender this prep based on last start run. Has the ability. Poorly weighted.
Dig A Pony: Ignore last start when went around and pulled up with breathing issues. Believe they are fixed. Has the ability to win. Best shown with sting out of ground.
Lady Cumquat: Didn’t exactly measure up last start. Has to improve much more here today.
Comments: Hard to pass up Suavito again today at the weights while Nautical is weighted to win after the close 3rd to Commanding Jewel.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 10, 12
Strategy: Suavito to win. Smaller bet Nautical.
Flemington Race 9
Escado: Caught the eye hitting the line strongly. Never won second up or at track…. have to at least consider but weight looks an issue.
Lucky Hussler: Form looks very sound with loses to Trust in a Gust the last two runs. Weighted nicely in class… Boss jumps on a massive issue?
Brave Centaur: Measured up in decent company over in NZ over similar distances but never quite got the win. Others preferred on current form.
Under The Louvre: Never runs a bad race and should have won the last two races. Will have every chance once again today and from barrier 1 expect them to sit close enough to the pace to have every chance.
Saint or Sinner: Showed a lot of talent last prep winning 4 in a row until finding a few too good in a Group 3. Has won first up likes the track and distance.
Pin Your Hopes: First up run average at best. Up in class and weight today hurts big time.
Rifleman: Very good horse. Ran 1.5L 4th to Fast N Rocking last start. Weighted well enough to win.
Spirits Dance: Two back run hard to rate here on. Improved since but still needs another length or two.
Five All: Hard to rate her a winning home in this class off those first two performances.
Our Hand of Faith: Very disappointing and never in it second up. Hard to rate here.
Ryker: Ran very strong races all his last 3. Very good first up but has to find another gear again.
Ava’s Delight: Only fair to the line first up. Very hard to have her here today.
Cadillac Mountain: Needs much further than this to find his best.
Bashan: Not in this class of race.
Comments: Lucky Hussler, Under The Louvre and Rifleman are the key standouts for mine today. Have to take on Rifleman at the distance and form lines.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 11
Strategy: Under The Louvre to win. Saver Lucky Hussler.
Randwick Race 7 – Epsom
One of those many open races we have come to learn to see up in Sydney at this time of year.
Two stand outs for mine and both are nice enough odds.
The first is Toydini. Eye-catching first and second up and will continue to improve throughout prep.
The second is Star Rolling off 53kg. Weighted to at worst go close and at best win well.
Comments: Very happy to play into both of these.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Toydini to win. Smaller bet Star Rolling.
Randwick Race 8 – Flight Stakes
I can’t look past First Seal today. Winx has to be considered a lay bet today. First Seal was very impressive last start and found the line super strong. Expect a similar strong display today. Thinking of You looks the unknown and only danger.
Comments: First Seal to win
Confidence 80%
Strategy: First Seal to win
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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