Welcome to The Profits form for Saturday 7 September 2013 at Flemington and Randwick. We are treated to the first Saturday meeting for spring with some brilliant fields up in Sydney and down in Melbourne. I am expecting the class to shine through down in Flemington this weekend with quite a few top picks looking the winners on paper for once. It was very hard to pick the Best Value today but I have gone with my speculation pick in Race 2 who has the improvement to go very close if the horse puts everything together. I am actually taking the day off and heading down to see my mighty Cats take on the Dockers in Geelong so won’t be very active on twitter, but I have been able to arrange a close friend to take over for the day on twitter. While he doesn’t watch as many race as I do, he has a higher in-depth knowledge of the in-play markets and trading and can give some better insights hopefully throughout the day. Don’t forget to take advantage of all the amazing promotions on offer around the bookies! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Flemington Race 6 Puissance De Lune
Flemington Race 3 Keep Cool
Randwick Race 7 Veyron
Flemington Race 2 Tequila Red
Lay of the Day
Flemington Race 5 Longma to Place
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 15, 16, 17
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 8, 9, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 8, 17
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 9, 12, 16
Best of Five is back from Betfair giving you the best price of the TABs, SP or Betfair SP (First $1000 of Winnings paid at BO5).
Sportsbet are giving you odds of $3 for Pusisance De Lune up to a Maximum of $100 (has to be placed via mobile app or website).
Available from 12pm, Betstar is giving you Double Fixed Odds on any runner in the Makybe Diva Stakes with a Maximum bet of $50. If you are new to Betstar, be sure to enter the promotion/refer code 23703 when joining!
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Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Ruud Awakening: Slowly away and showed nothing first up coming over from NZ. Back in class today.. will she go forward today and handle the straight? Could blow them away.
Metastasio: Unlucky last two runs but continues to have every chance. Strong runner who has won very well down the straight previously. One to beat.
Bulbula: Unlucky last start blocked for runs. Has gone well down the straight previously. Every chance.
Casquets: Handles the straight but this looks a harder race than what she won last start. Still, a big chance.
Zellindi: Not good enough on previous start.
Swing Vote: Has ability but will need to have improved significantly to win this today.
Mezeray Miss: Not sure she will measure up to this level of race. Looks to be a good horse though.
Miracle To Me: Good win last start but needs it wetter than this.
Annenberg: Good runs last prep but couldn’t get a win. Hard to see the progression past all of these.
Go Again: Not good enough on previous form.
Patricia Dawn: Can’t see her winning this. Not wet enough.
Donna Madeira: Not good enough on previous form.
Miss Grey Goose: Not going close here.
Comments: A few question marks around this race but there are a few that stand out.
Strategy: Ruud Awakening is the stand out and on top here from Metastasio.
Flemington Race 2
Long John: Surprisingly went back last start at Moonee Valley and ran on VERY well. Will be suited today and meets Cauthen 1.5kg better off today. Big chance.
Cauthen: Slowly away yet still cruised in. Actually looked to be struggling around the turn but when hit the straight was very good. J Mac will have to be careful not to use up all the gas in the first 300m of the straight. Hard to beat.
San Diego: Ran well first prep with a win at Caulfield to Finish. This is much harder.
Resistant: Won here in much easier class first up. Will run well but might not be as good as the others. Can place though.
Regimental Pride: Not good enough to win this on previous runs.
Lady Lakshmi: Enjoyed the track last prep. Best runs were late in prep rather than up front. May not measure up to this class but how would we know? Watch.
Shamus Award: Blocked for runs but didn’t get much against really. Had every chance and wasn’t good enough. Meets others 2.5kg better off today but I still don’t like.
Weinholt: Not good enough on previous runs.
Rockford: Not good enough for this.
Monkstone: Strong win second up in much easier class than this at 2YO. Hard to ignore.
Late Charge: Good win on slow at course and distance beating a fairly easy field. Looks overs today.
I Am Titanium: Should measure up today and can place at big odds.
Marwood: Can’t take anything out of a Heavy maiden win.
Rahal: Not good enough on previous runs.
Tequila Red: Have this horse in my ‘follow going forward’ list. Hasn’t been nominated for Guineas a major issue for me.. but this could be the grand final he is set for? Blow out chance.
Comments: Very hard race to judge but Cauthen is a favourite for the Guineas for a reason.
Strategy: Backing Cauthen to win and savering Long John. Small go on Tequila Red also.
Flemington Race 3
Brigantin: Quality runner who hasn’t been seen in about 9 months after a 3rd behind Gatewood in the Geelong Cup. Previous to that ran 2nd in WFA behind Joshua Tree which is very strong form. Most likely wants further than this but should run well today anyway.
Thought Worthy: Did a hell of alot wrong first up. Has won and place in both runs at this distance so you certainly can’t dismiss today. Will be hitting the line late.
Keep Cool: A runner I rate highly. 0.8L 4th to Jet Away who is going to be one of the Caulfield Cup favourites.. previous to that just behind Bells of Troy and beat Tuscan Fire last prep. Looks to have returned better than ever to be honest last start when went close at an unsuitable distance. Up to 2000m today and maps very well!
Anagold: Ran on nicely last start but wasn’t good enough in a race won by a horse I consider past it’s prime. Hard to back again today.
Bells of Troy: Happy to bet around her today. Couldn’t beat home Hanks who I don’t rate with a gem of a run.
Bonne Nuit: Got found out last start. Back to lesser class today and back to Flemington. Not out of this.
Why Not: Hard to see him running well today.
Bachelor Royal: Not up to this class on previous runs.
Desert Jeuney: Not in this level of class it seems.
Condahussler: Will lead up and be run down on previous form.
Outback Ranger: Not good enough.
Comments: Some fairly well weighted horses here. Top two are obvious dangers to the rest if they return at their best.
Strategy: Backing Keep Cool to win
Flemington Race 4
Pago Rock: Back down to what looks his easiest run all prep. Around the corner is more suited and will most likely set the pace out front. Weighted well enough to go close here.
Bianmick: Has won twice at this distance but last start did nothing at it. Never placed first up.
Niblick: Won at this distance firs tup last start in Canberra and then went on to win the 2nd run also. Has ability and goes well first up and has won 3 from 6 at this track as well. Good chance.
Cosmic Causeway: Never won from 4 tries at track or 5 first up runs. Prefer over slightly further than this.
Mutual Trust: Showed nothing the two runs last prep. Hard to believe has improved.
Dany The Fox: Consistent horse who always goes close. Last start was very strong considering the change of tactics at a poorly suited distance. Will sit outside Pago Rock out the front and be very hard to hold out.
Hurdy Gurdy Man: Looking for further than this and never won at track or first up.
Hvasstan: Never won at track or first up or distance. Still, not the worst runner.
Durnford: Ran on well enough but has never placed at distance and is looking for further.
Ranked: Could be the blow out runner! Very well backed last prep beaten by a handy horse called Jet Away fairly easy. Not seen for 5 months. Probably needs further though.
Shoreham: Can run well today but is certainly wanting further.
Twilighting: Went into the blackbook last start at Moonee Valley. Looking for the extra distance today but is 0 places from 7 starts at this track. Never placed in class.
Flyingconi: Big step up in class today but form is sound. Can run well.
Bolton: Not going well enough.
Garud: Strong runner who is weighted well enough but really doesn need further on previous form.
Comments: A few unknowns in the race makes it tricky.
Strategy: Dany The Fox on top from Pago Rock
Flemington Race 5
Romantic Touch: Waterhouse Runner whose three wins last prep were all solid from start to finish. Barrier 17 no issue as will go forward today and is a big chance.
Safeguard: Big win over Fast N Rocking first up and that form has certainly worked out. Won at course down the straight in first up very well. Big chance.
Churchill Dancer: Good run firs tup but this looks much tougher. Has won down the straight.
Whiskey Allround: May be wanting it wetter than this based on last prep.
Charlie Boy: Ran well enough lastl prep but never got within 2.3L of a win.
Polanski: Finished first prep winning twice at Caulfield. Looking for further it seems but not the worst here.
The Bowler: Good run last start down the straight but really does look suited to further.
Eclair Big Bang: Didn’t win well enough last start to impress enough to back here.
Hill Spy: Ran well enough last start behind Safeguard but can’t see the reversal 0.5kg worse off!
Il Cavallo: Ran ok last start but needs to improve a few lengths more today to win. Not for me.
This IS War: Not winning this on previous form.
Longma: Strong maiden win on Heavy. No thanks.
Scandiva: 2F-GP2 winner and went close to beating Guelph last prep over 1400m. First time down the straight but comes into this very well.
Kiss a Rose: Good first up win this prep but this is much harder today. Weighted nicely though.
Gregers: Weighted to win today. Very strong win first up and then second up won well enough.
Comments: Got this one down to five main runners. It seems to come down to the weights. This should be run at a strong tempo with so many runners suited to trying to run close to the front down the straight.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 15, 16, 17
Strategy: Gregers is the stand out here at the weights while SafeGuard’s form lines stack up. Backing both.
Flemington Race 6
Manighar: Took a long time to get into his runs last prep so first up is a big issue you would think. Ran well enough without winning and best run was over further. Does go well enough at track though so you cant fully dismiss.
Mourayan: 1 win from 10 starts at track and never won first up. Did win a Group 1 over 3200m to finish last prep. Wants further.
Mr Moet: Didn’t seem to measure up over here last prep not getting a win. Did go close to Foreteller and All Too Hard before failing over the 2000m. Get the feeling he will run well but isn’t the one to beat here.
Ethiopia: Never won at track or won at distance. Also never won first up. This isn’t the goal.
Foreteller: Impressive enough from the back of the field running on up in Sydney and extra 200m off a less furious pace will suit. Should be hitting the line well.
Sea Moon: Questionable if this is the horses best distance and also if they actually want to win this. A win would be 1-2kg extra on the ratings scale come cup time. Can’t dismiss either way.
December Draw: Good horse. Won 1 from 6 first up. Does like track. Looking for further.
Puissance De Lune: Gun. Big win last start and extra 200m suits today. Never been ‘beaten’ at the track. Good price. Only issue and main reason for a drift is will need to carry 1kg extra for Melb Cup we are told if wins today.
Tuscan Fire: Great run last start after starting slowly. Back to Flemington where he is 3 wins 2 places from 6. Gets an absolute gun run going further forward today and will be there in the finish.
Masked Marvel: Going great guns in training from all the jump outs. Looking for further.
Waldpark: Neve ran over this distance and won 1 from 3 first up. Only ever won on Good tracks. Should be fine over the distance on previous runs, but how much has the horse improved in a few months? Not sure it would have improved enough to win this over this distance for mine.
Moudre: Has won 3 from 6 at distance and 3 from 8 at track but just 1 from 6 first up. Not the worst chance today but hard to see measuring up off last prep. Not won since 2010!
Bit Of Hell: Just ignore first up. Look past that run. Will get clear running today and is a knock out chance at odds.
Let’s Make ADeal: Can’t see her going close in this class.
Comments: There are a few runners who could run on well at odds, but it is hard to go past Puissance De Lune at the prices being offered.
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 8, 9, 14
Strategy: Backing Puissance De Lune 5 units to win. 0.5 units on Bit of Hell and Tuscan Fire.
Flemington Race 7Albert The Fat: Hasn’t won since 2011, but was at course and over 1600m. Last prep did run just fair. Nothing special. Hard to see win today.
Temple of Boom: Ate up the ground last start on the Slow. Won’t be getting that today but after last start, you can’t count him out. Would point out McDonald hasn’t won at track from 19 starts in last 12 months. But he does go well down the straight to be fair.
Rebel Dane: Missed start but still got a nice position and was huge coming home. Up 3kg today but onto the straight so will get a sit and get out for a big run. Rumour is that he has been training down the straight so no issue here.
Broken: Won two in a row, one of which was down this straight. Up in weight today but can you really count him out? Giving 3kg today to Temple of Boom is the issue.
Fontelina: Goes ok first up but not sure he will measure up to this class.
Speediness: Great horse.. but better suited over further. Has won first up. Hard to tell how he will go.
Adebisi: Very poor run last start. Never been down the straight. Couldn’t touch.
Adamantium: Very disappointing run last start after going way too hard early. Down 3kg today does help. On previous run is a big chance but would need to have found an extra few lengths for this.
Whisper Downs: Love this horse. Has won over this distance but listening to Hayes, they have him about 60% fit and are aiming at October/November.
Chosen To Fly: Ran well enough last start. Down 2kg today. Could surprise and run well again.
Sertorius: Never gone down the straight but has won in class, at track and at distance. Weighted nicely so you can’t say he is out of this.
British General: 3 wins 2 places at track. Goes well first up.. won 4 from 8 at distance but seems to be better around bends here?
Boys on Tour: Hard to see him going close over the distance. Not here to win IMO.
Mister Milton: Never won first up but last start was win down this straight over distance. Equal weight.
Albrecht: Back in class today but I couldn’t touch here at the price. Think the horse is unders.
Blackie: Not suited by distance.
Meliora: Didn’t enjoy the slow track last start and still went close in a harder race. Back to Flemington. Will go very close at the weights. Only issue is if she handles the straight.
Jolie Blonde: Hard to back off first up run but could be forgiven?
Red Inca: Ran well in 3YO grade but not sure he will be measuring up first up in this class.
Comments: Tough race with two key standouts in Rebel Dane and Adamantium. Temple of Boom will most likely attract a fair backing due to it’s colt following.
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 8, 17
Strategy: Hard to go past Rebel Dane here today while I am happy to at very least saver Adamantium.
Flemington Race 8
Quintessential: Never won first up previously but has won 2 times at this distance previously and was in top form last prep. Probably looking for further, but surely can’t discount.
Dear Demi: Never won first up but won twice at this distance and has won at track. Overly disappointing last prep and up in class from what she did win. Win wouldn’t shock but prefer others today.
Talent Show: Blow out chance at big odds. Group 2 winner beating home Mr Moet over 2400m over in Ascot early in the year and then ran very well behind Settle Strada first up this prep over 1300m.
Commanding Jewel: For mine, she comes into this very well today. Ran well enough over an unsuitable distance and looks to have been set for this today. Will go very close.
Oasis Bloom: Put up by a few in the know as a good e/w chance today but I thought was fairly poor first up. Have to include in quaddie.
Bonaria: Hard horse to find but last preps win over Lidari looks strong here today and ran on very well behind Octavia last start. Has won twice here and extra 200m suits big time.
Octavia: Last two wins were very solid. Will try and run a slow pace out front again today and try and last to the line. May be found out by the distance.
Catkins: Waller runner down from Sydney. Disappointed first up all things considering in much easier than this and Velrosso failed next start. Happy to avoid.
Thy: Big first up win over 1200m at Caulfield and certainly a chance off that run.
Alzora: Hayes gives her a chance today so one to watch. Not in my top 4 though.
Global Balance: Hayes prefers Alzora over this runner and I agree. Not sure she is good enough. Once again, another to watch.
Just Discreet: Consistent runner who won very well first up. Ignore 2nd up run though. Can compete today.
You’re So Good: Very average first up. Couldn’t back today off that run.
Lucky Penny: Blocked for runs but was fairly disappointing all things considered. Happy to be against.
A Time for Julia: Big run first up and was backed in hard. Will enjoy the extra 200m today and comes in very well. Big chance and maps very well.
Text’N Hurley: Won her last three and continues to progress. May have found her limit here though.
Comments: Very open Race. I had 8 runners in my Quaddie and had to reduce it. I got it down to 3 toppies in Commanding Jewel, A Time for Julia and Bonaria and it really came down to previous runs and speed mapping.
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 9, 12, 16
Strategy: Commanding Jewel each-way.
Randwick Race 6
A tough race on paper with several chances. Sincero is welcomed back to the races over a more suitable distance. If there is a good track then you must consider him today.
Shoot Out comes in well as well but will need to come from a long way back ont he rails while Sacred Falls has never won from 2 starts at this distance, but will first up, very tough weight and dry track be too much against the horse?
Two stand out for me in this wide open race. Bello is the value of the race and should be backed in from the $20s currently available. First up run was very solid and will map better today. Previous form speaks for itself.
Fawkner is the other runner. Huge Spring last year and only run inbetween was a 3rd behind Black Caviar which is fair enough for me. Has trained on and will certainly be suited by track and go close.
Strategy: 2 units Fawkner 1 Unit Bello.
Randwick Race 7
Very keen on a runner in this race who we backed last start and got the chocolates at $34s!
Veyron is a super horse. The runs last prep were masive and he backed it up 2nd up this prep beating home Streama and Rain Affair. It was a eye catching run. If the horse started under $5 that start, you would be lucky to get $3 and that is where he should be today. Instead, you are getting over the $4 price and he is simply value from the barrier as well. Randwick will suit him.
Strategy: Veyron to win
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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