Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington, Doomben and Morphetville on 10 May 2014. Well the Best Bet certainly worked out very well last Saturday and kicked the day off in style. The rest of the day didn’t exactly go to plan, but thankfully the day was already paid for. It’s fair to say that today looks to be one of the toughest days I’ve seen all year with large competitive fields all around Australia. There isn’t an odds on pop I could say is a moral today either, which is very rare… in fact, i’d be taking most of them on. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 Tried and Tired
This race looks far more open on paper than it really is. There are quite a few ‘progressive types’ and ‘non-winners’ going around in it. The pace will be on so we will see a genuine tempo where you can win from the front or back, the best horses should rise to the top, and those is only one who fits this mold in Tried and Tired.
Melbourne Next Bet
Flemington Race 5 Gracious Prospect
I have high expectations of where this horse can be in a years time. Continues to produce solid runs and will push forward today to take up a positive position. Weighted so well against other runners in this grade today and I have the horse rated at close to 2/3 the best odds available at time of posting.
Melbourne Best E/W Bet
Flemington Race 6 Morant
This guy is tough to catch, but he really caught my eye three runs back and then also again last start when bitterly unlucky not to win due to being blocked in the run. Back to the straight course today, he is weighted to win based on his last start run and is more than double the rated odds.
Interstate Best E/W Bet
Morphetville Race 8 Just Discreet
Taking a bit of a chance today on this horse after her last start run was poor.. but I believe we can ignore and rate on two back which wins this. Key to this horse is she loves it wet and that is exactly what we get today. Big overs and by far the best E/W of the day outside of Melbourne.
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 8, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 7, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 9, 12, 17
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
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I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Doomben Race 7
Buffering: The Buff was good first up and then brave to the line on heavy last start at Randwick. Back to a dry track today, he looks to have every chance today and will go close. Looks under correct odds.
Spirit of Boom: Ran home well last start at Eagle Farm when just missed. Absolutely flying but will he have enough to run all these down today?
Temple of Boom: Good win thanks to a tempo bias last start. Certainly had improved but this is much harder.
Tiger Tees: Each run this prep has had merit. Can’t count him out again today. Back to 1200m today suits more than 1400m. Will be on speed with Buff and should get the rail.
Hot Snitzel: The one at odds with a huge chance today. Was very impressive both runs this prep and I really feel he will measure up in this class today.
Famous Seamus: Hard to see him improving enough to beat all these.
Peron: First up run was a forgive but putting her into that class of race spoke volumes. Can’t see this sudden progression.
Comments: There are three horses in this race I could be with. Buffering is the obvious but he is way under the odds. I’d want 3s to back him here today. The two I want to be with at the prices today are Spirit of Boom and Hot Snitzel.
Strategy: Spirit of Boom to win. Same size bet on Hot Snitzel.
Morphetville Race 6
Fairly average race and hard to match quite a few of these up. Maybe Discreet will be running well from the front. Rhythm to Spare is certainly the one to beat but a question on the wet track. Crucial goes well on wet and so does gig.
The one I like is a bit of a spec bet today – Saturday Affair. She ran home very well behind Tango’s Daughter last start and looks a very progressive type… won 2 on slow and 1 on heavy from 3 starts so loves it wet… barrier 3 will get a good position and be there at the end at big odds.
Strategy: Saturday Affair E/W
Morphetville Race 7
Bel Sprinter: Never won on slow or heavy and I’m happy to avoid him here. Not goin well enough.
Platelet: Continues to run well… I remember the rule with this horse from a while back… back her on the wet. Both last two runs were very good and should improve with such a wet track today. Big chance.
Sessions: Very disappointing last start on heavy while previous two runs were solid when didn’t actually threaten for the win. Best seen on dryer surfaces.
Conservatorium: First two runs suggest he has a lot of improvement to come to win in this grade this prep.
Unpretentious: Ran very well last start at MV when a close 2nd to Spirit of Boom. 1 run 1 win on slow and 1 run 1 place on heavy… should run well and great barrier.
Driefontein: Two runs in Adelaide for two convincing wins. Never won from 4 tries on slow and 1 try on heavy.. infact only placed once in those 5 runs. Has to be concerned with the track condition today.
Sistine Demon: Horrible barrier draw today from 20, but he is hard to ignore here. His last start 6L win at Caulfield was eye-catching and if he didn’t run into the rail in the straight, it probably would have been 7 lengths. That was his first run on a Slow track and the signs are all there that he will have no issues with a wet track today. Is his best 1200m? Big issue today for mine is the distance… that is all.
Smokin’ Joey: Very average this prep and poor wet track form so hard to be confident he runs well today. Best over further.
Essay Raider: Showed huge improvement back in class to Group 3 company to run away with the win. Tricky barrier draw today, but based off that last start run, he has every chance today in this class. Only issue is lack of wet track form.
Riziz: Two starts two wins this prep. Oliver jumps off tells you enough.. his beaten much easier horses than these today. Barrier helps give him chances.
Natuzzi: Very disappointing last start when showed ‘something’ firs tup at Caulfield. Goes well enough on wet tracks but this is a big step up in class.
Karacatis: Ran well enough last two but not in this class.
Ready to Rip: Loves it wet but was very poor last start which was consistent with previous run. Hard to have.
Pago Rock: Hasn’t exactly leveled up in this grade previously. Weighted well enough again today and actually maps fairly well today. Only run on slow was last start and won.. but this is much harder.
Office Bearer: Seems to gone to the next level this prep with both runs impressing. This is a step up in grade again and no wet track form is the issue.. blowout chance.
Whitlam: Hard to see him placing on previous runs. No thanks.
Miracles of Life: Strong enough win on slow at course and distance last start from a very average pace out the front. Had every right to win but from 3YO company to this today.. not for me at all.
Gregers: Continues to run well without winning. Last two runs have been very solid in similar company and maps VERY well today from barrier. Last win was on a slow track.
Classy Jack: Won’t measure up in this class.
Lucky Symbol: Not good enough for this today.
Comments: Certainly an open race. Six main chances on my ratings with Platelet, Unpretentious, Sistine Demon, Essay Raider, Office Bearer and Gregers. Essay Raider has a tough barrier today and last start win was good, but if we do get the heavy today, then I probably don’t have him on top here. I thijnk Unpretentious is a bit of a query on a heavy track compared to others in this race today… Only real run was a $2.10 favourite and didn’t show the normal turn of foot and ran 3rd. Office Bearer is simply over the odds, but with no wet track form apart from a 7th from 7 in a trial on slow, so its hard to have confidence. I have it down to three runners well fancied in the market (no surprise). Sistine Demon is hard to ignore on the last start run… but back to 1200m looks the issue today and from the poor barrier, I have to take him on. Gregers is mapped to have every chance today. His last start win was on a slow track and that should give him the extra distance he wants today.. weighted to win as well and Dunn looks the correct jockey to ride her home to me. Platelet is the on top hope for me. Just ignore two back when she was very poor. Last start she flashed home very well but was just too far off the pace… barrier is a concern today, but has the gate speed and should get a positive enough position… and loves it wet.
Strategy: Platelet to win. Lesser size bet Gregers.
Morphetville Race 8
Just the two runners I like here.. but one is massive overs.
Miss Steele is a very progressive type… her form lines are sound and if she handles the wet track today, at the weights, she probably wins.
I Love It is slightly back in class here today and looks an ok type… but I reckon finds a few too good here.
Nadeem Lass runs ok on the wet and was decent last start… Girl Guide is way up in class but looks a decent type also.
The one I like at odds is Just Discreet. She handles the wet and her run two back in WFA-G3 company was very solid. Just ignore last start and rate on two back… last win was in WFA-G3 class at course and distance on a slow track. Big overs.
Comments: Hard to pass up Just Discreet here.
Strategy: Just Discreet E/W
Flemington Race 3
Awasita: Bottom weight last start at Sandown after two fairly average runs previously, she ran very well but just couldn’t get the win. Up to 57kg today but back in class, goes well down a straight.
Scatcat: 2kg better off against Awasita today and that should do the trick. I get the feeling this runner will have no issues with the straight on everything i’ve seen. Weighted to win today on previous form.
Miracle To Me: Continues to run solid times and races but just not threaten. Wayyyy back in class today, rates to go very close on last 3 runs.
Nicamorae: Hard to ignore on last start 57.3 win down the straight. Looks to be going places after it all has clicked. Hard to beat.
Cobblestones: Showed some decent runs in first prep and returned well to win a much easier race than this. Has to improve to place.
Longchamp Belle: Jumped poorly and the race was over from there first up. Much better over 1200m but not sure she handles the straight? $26 for a horse who ran 0.1L 2nd to Solicit at her best? Have to spec that!
Sense of Hite: Not the same horse this prep. Has to improve but does handle the straight.
Hot Mama: Too far back last start and ran home well for 7th. Way up in class and down to 52kg today… yard sounds confident that she will go well.
Jemerica: Didn’t show much at all up in class last start. Should run better than that today but not top hope for me.
Belle Couture: Short price on reputation alone. Half-sister of Black Caviar, she won her maiden very well. Damien Oliver didn’t think enough of her to stay in Victoria today to take the ride though says enough to me.
Good Music: Showed that she was a fairly handy filly first prep but this is MUCH harder today first up.
Sentfromthestars: Ran home well when just too far back last start. 1.5kg better off today.
Curl Up: Maiden only winner in average time average race. Not sure can even place.
Pearly Whites: Just ignore last start when failed due to track issues and rate on two back run and even three back with Srikandi form holding up. Off 51kg today… she is a huge chance at MASSIVE odds.
I’m Fearsome: Decent maiden win last start. One to keep an eye on.
Laguna Vista: Hard to have on previous runs.
Comments: Very open race. The main chances from bottom numbers up are I’m Fearsome, Pearly Whites, Belle Couture, Longchamp Belle, Nicamorae, Miracle To Me, Scatcat and Awasita. I think Belle Couture is really very much under the correct odds today. What she she beat first up? Not a lot at all and first time down the straight, I think she is poorly weighted here. Awasita and Scatcat are both chances on their previous runs. I think Nicamorae has to be taken on today though up in class again but should certainly run well. I have this down to three horses I have over the odds today in Miracle To Me who loves it down the straight and is well in today. Longchamp Belle who just has to be ignored on last start and rated on previous prep runs and of course Pearly Whites who is weighted to win based off two back run.
Strategy: Equal stakes on Pearly Whites and Miracle To Me. Lesser bet Longchamp Belle.
Flemington Race 4
Voila Ici: Been off quite a few months and returns today. Generally runs well first up and this distance shouldn’t be an issue. Can win if back to best.
Wish Come True: Showed promise over in Italy and is first up for over a year. Happy to take on at the price though.
Backstedt: Maps to be one of two leaders (with Voila Ici). Last two runs have both had merit and if they can go settle out the front, he can go close.
Garud: Didn’t show much at all first up and wasn’t expected to at the distance. Need to improve significantly to win this today.
Lord Wimble: Disappointing the last 6 runs and can’t have today even though well weighted.
Me HungI: Ran home well enough last start. This looks a little harder today but should run a brave race. Could place.
Lightenuff: Showed nothing last two start after a solid enough run 2nd at Bendigo first up. Hard to have in this class.
Compound: Just ignore last start run and rate on win over Shiny Buttons two back. Back to 1800m today suits and weighted to win.
Fabriano: Probably just ignore last start when was never going to run well on slow. Better far into preps though.
Hannaford: Didn’t seem to handle the ground last start. two back run was very solid and up in distance today helps.
El Mondoma: Probably not in this level of class on past few runs. Could sneak a place?
Comments: Voila Ici, Wish Come True, Backstedt, Compound and Hannaford are the five who stand out here. Wish Come Ture’s form lines read that the horses best comes on a wet track. Backstedt has had every chance the past three runs and not won. He will go close again but can he get that win? At the price i’m not willing to back him today. Voila Ici is an unknown today. Hannaford should improve but how much? The one that stands out at the weights on two back run is Compound. The horse rates well and is way over the correct odds.
Strategy: Compound E/W
Flemington Race 5
Written Up: Showed a little bit more than I was expecting last start down in the Bool first up on a Heavy track snagging the win back in class. Up in class again today and top weight again looks a little tough, especially when up 4kg from 0.2L defeat to Gracious Prospect 3 runs back and Gracious Prospect is DOWN 1.5kg today.. 5.5kg swing! Barrier 16 hurts also.
Gracious Prospect: Absolutely weighted to win today. Will go forward from barrier 10 and off 55.5kg is every chance on his last two very solid runs. One of the runners to beat.
Tenere: Way up in class today after just sneaking home to win in much easier company. not for me.
Kingdom of Dreams: Won two in a row at very short prices… snuck in just last start. Has the ability and is a solid contender.. but this is certainly much harder.
Search Squad: Weighted well the last few runs and finally snuck home for the win at Sandown with a perfect ride. From barrier 17, very hard to see similar occuring today but is weighted well enough to contend.
Miss Maggiebeel: Very disappointing finish to last prep. Showed a lot of potential. Weighted nicely first up today but has to improve significantly.
Tankster: Never runs a bad race does tankster. Meets Search Squad 1.5kg better off at the weights today for 0.5L defeat. Barrier 19 makes it tough though.
Last Sight: A bit of a surprise winner last start in much easier company in a solid time from out the front. Can improve today and weighted nicely.
Burning Front: Good maiden win and then just got the win last start in much easier company. Weighted well and is progressive, but finds a few toog ood.
By The Grave: No luck last start at Sandown and weighted better today, should have every chance at weights today. SURELY they try and sit closer to the speed today from positive barrier.
Mattan: Maiden only winner last prep. Didn’t prove to be this class.
Bel Rain: Decent win first up. Much harder today and not sure that progressive.
Boombuster: Probably just ignore last start, clearly didn’t handle heavy. Rate on two back run. Needs to improve still.
Artie Mortie: Finally got a maiden win first up. Much harder here. Not the worst but hard to see placing. .
Zenithal: Won’t measure up here on times.
My Angus: Took three runs to finally win this prep. Weighted ok with claims but from barrier hard to see a win.
Gold Cufflinks: Hard to see placing on previous runs.
Frisky Cruiser: Running ok but not in this class today.
Comments: Have to go wide in the Quaddie. Probably 8 key chances today here… but one stands out.
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 8, 11, 12
Strategy: Gracious Prospect to win
Flemington Race 6
Le Bonsir: Didn’t handle the slow track last start but still finished off very well at Caulfield. Down to 56.5kg after claims today and comes into this very well today. Rates to go close.
Pampelonne: 1 good run in the past 7 and that was last start at Randwick before spelling. Been off 6 months and even though first up record id solid, I can’t suggest he returns with that today. No straight form either.
Decircles: Didn’t lead last start and ran home nicely all things considered. Similar class today and up to 1100m suits IMO. Weighted nicely and will be hard to chase down.
Lonhspresso: Never won first up and never placed at track… but did run 2.3L 5th down the straight two back. Has a win over Essay Raider in 3Y-GP2 two preps back on record. Easiest race she has seen for a long time and is weighted off 52.5kg today, you have to consider her a genuine chance.
General Peekay: Made the jump last prep to this grade of race when he placed 3rd in a Group 3. First up run was solid behind Essay Raider and was close behind 2nd and 3rd. Will improve for that run and can go well.
Road Warrior: Hard to see a positive return here in this class.
Morant: No luck at Wangaratta two back after a decent run behind Commanding Time. Last start had aboslutely no luck when should have won at Caulfield behind Pago Rock blocked for runs. No excuses of that kind today and he handles the straight just fine. At the weights, he has every chance and is the one to beat on times.
Lady of Harrods: Not the same horse we know from 2012, simple. Hard to suggest backing today.. can and should run well, but others preferred.
Pillar of Creation: Promising type who hasn’t gone on with it. Been off a few months after recording just the 1 win in much easier company last prep. Equal weights today. Hard to see first up win.
Such Hope: Went close last start at Caulfield but just missed. Can improve today but this is too hard.
Primitive Man: Not the worst going around today on form lines. Needs to find lengths though.
Comments: I’m very keen to stick with Morant today. Beriman knows how to ride and i’d back her in every day of the week to give him the required ride. His weighted to go very clos eon his last and three back starts.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7, 9
Strategy: Morant E/W
Flemington Race 7
Shoreham: Ran home strongly for 3rd in the Bool Cup last start, before that 3L 5th to OVP which is very solid form. Up to 58kg today, still comes into this very well and from barrier 15 will be pushing forward with a lack of pace in the race.
Prairie Star: Showed us nothing all prep and hard to suggest a win today. No thanks.
Ancient King: Well backed last start and the money was spot on. Looks to be out to the right distance now and looks to have turned a corner. Big chance.
Gottino: Horrible ride in the Bool Cup and over-raced big time, just ignore and rate on previous runs. Should go well enough at this distance.
Unchain My Heart: Brave to the line last start at Flemington but just had the win taken off her. Down to 54kg today with the claims puts her better off than Ancient King at the weights which is important. Maps well.
Buxted: First up run fair without impressing. Hard to have here.
Supremacy: Shown nothing this prep.
Wells: Hard to suggest he could place on first 3 runs.
Beliveau: Showed nothing last start on the wet. Hard to ignore today at the weights but also hard to suggest winning.
Mightiest: Ran home really well behind Tooleybuc Kid last start even though still got beat by 4.3L. Much harder here. Can run ok.
Jelly Baby: Can’t see going close here after last few runs.
Diamond Jim: Not in this class today.
Throw The King: Hard to know what to make of last start. Weighted better today.. hard to not rate.
Transfer Allowance: Ran home nicely last start but others preferred out of that race.
Yolanda Be Cool: Not in this class today.
Comments: A few form lines to pick around. Shoreham should be given an easy time out front and that could be the difference today.
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 7, 15
Strategy: Shoreham to win. Smaller bet Unchain My Heart
Flemington Race 8
Mister Milton: Been placed in much harder company than required this prep and finally back to something competitive. Unfortunately still not going well enough.
Dayita: Showed nothing last prep.. Better over further.
Lord Durante: First up run was average and then last start was terrible. Down in weight but up in class again. Hard to suggest.
Henwood: Ridden too far back last start at Sandown. Came home well but needed to be further forward. Barrier 14 today doesn’t help a great deal, but should position further forward and be in with a chance.
Zedi Knight: Hard to suggest he improves significantly on last four runs. No thanks.
Soros: Not sure what to make of win two back when so poor last start. Have to ignore today.
Shadow Ninja: Progressing nicely and improved for a big win last start. Need to improve to repeat that today.
Tried and Tired: Continues to impress and is a big chance today. Maps to get a forward position and will go very close.
Ventic: Can’t have on previous runs this prep.
African Heat: Needs further.
The New Boy: Just ignore last start, doesn’t handle slow. Never won 2nd up but loves this track and distance and is weighted to run well. If backing, put a hedge against at $2s, will get matched if he turns up.
Rememba Howe: Last start good run at course over 1700m. Long time off never won first up and prefers further.
Chile Express: Last start very poor. Previous two runs only fair. Hard to suggest the sudden improvement.
Friday Hussy: Never won firs tup or at track or at distance. Needs further.
Specter: Continues to run 2nds.. loves to go close. Not sure he has the best form line sbut weighted well.
Lampedusa: Ran strong 2nd up for 4th to Paaratte Pat.. but that hasn’t worked out and barrier hurts.
StereoSonic: Form hasn’t worked out very well for this guy. Hard to see.
Comments: Very keen on one runner here today in Tried and Tired. Rates to go very close at the weights has the key forwardlines that are to be followed forward. Race will have the sufficient pace in it required also.
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 9, 12, 17
Strategy: Tried and Tired to win for 3 units.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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