Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington, Doomben, Randwick and Morphetville on 24 May 2014. As I said before, welcome! Last week ended with a bang with yet another Best Bet getting up down in Melbourne and redeeming the day overall. Well guess what, we have another confident best bet in Melbourne, a little shorter priced today though… but still big value on my ratings. There is ALOT of value around this weekend in Melbourne and also interstate and you can clearly see which ones I fancy through the confidence ratings. This is an important time of year… we have clear form lines emerging and you can really match up the form well from after the carnivals with horses continuing to race. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 Tooleybuc Kid
An old favourite of ours who has cost us a fair bit of money along the way, but he has put it all together and has turned into a very good horse with probably the most impressive form lines going around in Melbourne this weekend… including defeating our Best Bet last week… that is how much faith we have in this horse, we rode his form lines and they paid off big time… as they will continue to today. The price is more than generous on our ratings today. We will be taking a saver position on the main threat in the race Backstedt.
Interstate Best Bet
Morphetville Race 2 Saturday Affair
Put in a super run for us last start and is way back in class today going around in what is no doubt a competitive race. The important thing to look at though in this race isn’t just the form lines, it’s how each horse is in at the weights. Saturday Affair comes in so well at the weights, the horse got an 85% confidence rating and was nearly pushing up into the 90% range. Maps well.
Melbourne Next Bet
Flemington Race 7 Limes
We are getting double figure odds for a horse who has measured up at this course, at this distance and in this class previously. The only issue is how fit the horse is today… Limes is best late into preps, but from what I saw first up, that isn’t an issue. This is a very unique race and I have been able to turn a nice profit in the long term on these specific races where you have a genuine leader who will set a stupid tempo out the front. You have to choose a horse who is hardened and can run a genuinely fast time… Limes is that horse in this field today and at double figure odds, we are getting a great price.
Interstate Next Bet
Doomben Race 9 Precedence
This old war horse is still going around I hear you say? I know! I thought his career was gone about 2 years ago as well… but he has seen a new lease on life and is in career best form the past 8 months. His first up run was eye-catching behind Streama and Mr O! Most importantly, they decided to skip the Cup last weekend to focus on an easier kill, this race. You have to take note of such race setting from talented trainers and take the odds on offer.
Melbourne Best E/W Bet
Flemington Race 5 I’m Jake
You will be shocked to hear.. I’m Jake is another horse I’ve been following for a while. We were actually on the last time he won a fair amount of time ago and while we haven’t been on every run since, we have kept a close eye on him knowing the potential he has over the longer distances. The run last start (we weren’t on) was eye-catching. He comes into this today at massive odds and will start even longer I believe. He maps as the only speed in the race and should have every chance to stack them up and sprint to victory at the weights. At worst, i think due to the tempo, he is a big chance of at very least placing, and thus, gets the best E/W of the day tag!
Interstate Best E/W Bet
Doomben Race 5 Jazz Song
This is one of the toughest races of the day up in Queensland. Damien Oliver has decided to ride up in QLD and this gem of a horse is one of the main reasons if you ask me. Impressed me with a very very very good win at MV a few runs back defeating one of the most progressive horses i’ve seen this year who has sadly passed away since. Jazz Song’s run last start on ground that the horse really doesn’t handle was super and is the favourite here AS good as Miracles of Life? We will see won’t we and at the double figure quote, I’m very happy to have Jazz Song as my Best E/W of the day Interstate!
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 11, 15, 19
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 9, 10
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
A another 2YO race with unseen horses, how do they expect us to bet with confidence? If you are having a go here remember that its always important to remember that not every horse handles the straight Flemington track. Husson Eagle is proven and the form lines are solid… he is clearly the horse to beat and does deserve to be odds on, but there is no way you could bet it with the unknowns in the race.
Flemington Race 2
Prince of Capers: A good horse who hasn’t shown us anything all three runs this prep. Way back in class off 57kg today, he hasn’t won for nearly a year. Hard to see for mine.
Correggio: Just ignore last start and rate on two previous runs. Weighted ok in this class and stats over these distances are hard to ignore, goes well. Only run at track over this distance was a 0.1L 2nd.
Me Hungi: Not exactly sure where this horse is at form wise. Very poor last start at Flemington and three runs back stole the win from out the front on a slow track. Barrier hurts and won’t be getting that easy run today. Not for me.
White Universe: Not won since 2011 and since coming back hasn’t shown us much at all. Up in distance helps though.
Tax Evader: Huge win last start in much easier grade than this. Barrier 1 today means he probably gets blocked for a run. Happy to take him on today at these prices.
Hero Master: Won 3 of his last 4 this prep and continues to improve. Probably reached his limit though and up to this class gets beat. Should still run well at the weights. Could place.
Friday Hussy: Never won first or 2nd up and never placed at track. Also never won over this distance and is better suited to further. Hard to have.
Magic Me: Not the worst horse going around and is much better weighted today than Hero Master… but looks outclassed amongst these.
Notice Received: The value of the race. She is a good horse and we caught her at big odds last prep. She isn’t a wet tracker so just remove the two slow runs this prep from her record and you are left with a first up run that was still only 4L off Hazard in a MUCH harder race and then the run two races after 2L off Tango’s Daughter in a much harder race as well. Not only is she heavily back in grade here today, she is also down 1kg with the same jockey onboard. Most importantly, she has won at this track previously and will enjoy a dead or even better a good track. Rates to win for mine.
Belgietto: Stole a win this prep on heavy and since hasn’t really measured up. Up in class again today and down to 52kg… but on times has to find lengths.
Bachelor Royal: Showed nothing first up but up in distance today should help. Up in class and poorly weighted is the issue.
Harveys True Heart: Just really ignore last start at Caulfield and rate on previous run… even so, hard to rate him in this class off those runs as a winning chance.
Bombalatomba: His ‘ok’ but not this class level off runs this prep.
Aurum Spirit: Weighted to go close today. His run two back at Bendigo over 1300m was eye-catching just not getting there. Last start a little disappointing but he could measure up today at the weights.
Kerthos: Very disappointing last two starts as a very short priced runner. Even previous start went around favourite and didn’t place there either. Can’t trust this horse and up in class again today not very well in at weights. May try and lead?
Comments: I like two runners here at big odds. I actually rate them both on top here. Very open field.
Strategy: Notice Received a good sized E/W bet. Smaller win bet on Correggio.
Flemington Race 3
Scatcat: Clearly better on a Good or Dead track than Slow as proved last start. Up in class and equal weights today a little harsh, but don’t count her out in this grade.
Young Tigers Jeuny: A lazy 5 length win at the bool in MUCH easier company. Down 4.5kg today and back onto a non-rain affected track, this interesting filly did win her maiden over 1300m by 6L on a dead track as well. Always shown she has ability and the yard believes she has it also. Could be value.
Nicamorae: Handles the Flemington straight as proven with two back run. Last start may have just been the slow that wasn’t her best ground. Stronger class today but on times the two back run should measure up here.
Scarlet Billows: Ignore last start when breathing issues and blocked for runs and rate on two and three back. Unproven down the straight but seems the type who would handle it off the Sandown long straight runs.
Leia: Back in distance today interestingly. Last start was her poorest run all prep and has to be ignored. If we rate on two and even three back with form around River Delta and Griante, then she is right in this. Weighted nicely and is certainly a blowout chance.
Sense of Hite: Hasn’t shown much all prep. Does like Flemington straight but didn’t show much last start on it. Not for me.
Hot Mama: Continues to run solid races. Up in class and up in weight today is a massive issue, but last start run was solid.
I’m Fearsome: Surprised many taking out 2nd last start down the straight. Beriman keeps the ride but up in class and up in weight today. Can run well.
Mokoro: Gone around the last two starts as favourite and has shown nothing. Can’t have.
Good Music: Flew home late last start with I’m Fearsome from the back. Up 1kg as well today but has ability.
It’s One: Proved to be a good horse last prep. Big jump up in class and chucked in the deep end here. Not sure I could back down the straight first up.
Belle Couture: Did nothing right last start when jumped badly and finished dead last. Up in class and up in weight, not sure I could take her at the odds today either.
Amaretto: Times too poor to place here.
Comments: One of those races where there are 8 legit chances on paper. You really have to decide if you are taking the proven horses or those on the up and which form lines to follow. Leia looks to be the type of horse I’m willing to take a risk on and I believe is proven around some really good horses in this class of race. Young Tiger Jeuny has all the signs of a horse who can make the grade today also and has the right jockey onboard.
Strategy: Leia to win. Smaller bet Young Tigers Jeuny.
Flemington Race 4
Tuscan Fire: Ran home very well last start at Caulfield in easier company (it was easier). Equal weight today from a nice barrier. Up to 2000m helps him as well. Can improve again today and will be competitive.
Voila Ici: Wasn’t anywhere near what you would expect first up to win this. Has to find lengths today.
Wish Come True: Was a decent first up run all things considered but the horse didn’t measure up. Will need a few more runs IMO.
Backstedt: A lazy 4L win last start at course and similar distance in a much easier class race. Back to a dryer track today, he is one of two KEY chances in this.
Flying Hussler: Ran very well two back 2L 5th behind Kitten On The Run but was poor last start. I think this horse is better on a dead ground.. if gets it today is a chance.
Whisper Downs: Weighted ok today but sadly can’t see him turning the tables on Tooley.
Tooleybuc Kid: Super win last start and also the start before. Four back ran 0.4L 2nd to Our Voodoo Prince as well. Off 52.5kg again today, he will eat up this long straight and is the one to beat. Looks almost bet of the day material before even finishing the race. NEVER won on Good is the only issue but the Our Voodoo Prince race kind of dispells that for me.
Garud: Ran home well last start but won’t get a win today based on that run.
Bells of Troy: Different form lines to others in this. Up in class today and weighted ok. Needs to find about 3 lengths though 2nd up.
Lightenuff: Ran a nice 2nd to Backstedt… won’t be improving that position today.
Prince Of Glory: Running ok but not well enough at weights to win this.
Streaky Fella: Shown us nothing this prep and is best on a wet surface. Just getting runs to go hurdle?
Zuma Roc: False favourite last start at Caulfield as we said and ran accordingly… how the hell did it go around at $5.50 with these form lines I will never know. Not winning this.
Comments: 2 horse race and our bet of the day comes out of this for sure. Tooleybuc Kid is flying. The perfect jockey is onboard and he is weighted to be 2L ahead of these other horses at the line. Backstedt is the main threat… but I do also believe last start flattered him with the slow pace out front and being able to just out sprint the rest of them. I still have to saver him here.
Strategy: Tooleybuc Kid to win. Saver Backstedt.
Flemington Race 5
Shoreham: Barrier 3 today, surely they have to be more positive than the last two starts. Had every chance last start and just didn’t grind out the win… not something I like in a horse. The distance increase and back to a dryer ground should help… interestingly his up to 3200m today and his last win was on 1400m!
Gotta Take Care: Killed them over the Hurdles at the Bool last start and previous to that hit the line oh so hard to steal the win at course over 2600m. Up to 3200m is only a bonus…. but this looks a harder race on paper than two back and hsi up to 59kg from 54.5kg.
Anicent King: Unlucky not to get the win two runs back behind Gotta Take Care when struck with someone elses whip but a bit of rain and he got the win last start. Up to 3200m is ideal and he will try tough this one out. 1kg better off today against Gotta Take Care for two back run but have to admit Gotta Take Care is better suited to the 3200m.
Gottino: Disappointing runs the last two runs and he is better than that. Will handle the distance no issue and from barrier 1 will get a run at the right time. Weighted nicely.
Ominous: Progresisng through the grades but surely has struck his limit here. The win last start at Morphetville he didn’t beat much, Zabeelionaire isn’t exactly flying and previous start only just beat a few average ones home. Much harder today. Looks under correct odds.
Unchain My Heart: Didn’t handle the wet ground last start at Flemington but still ran home well. Weighted so well today compared to Gotta Take Care and Ancient King… the one to beat at weights.
Vatuvei: Not good enough.. Hasn’t won since 2012.
I’m Jake: Continues to improve and I believe he is wanting this distance today. He goes well on wet or dry tracks and Chad Schofield onboard today could be the difference. 4kg better off against Gotta Take Care and he is the only natural leader. Rated to go close.
Luckzat: Not in this class of race.
Wells: Ran home very well last start due to the slow track. Won’t get that today but does get a good distance… weighted nicely but has to show MUCH more than I expect him to.
McNulty: Huge step up in class and distance today. I can’t have him here.
Comments: I’m Jake rates on top for me today at huge odds while Unchain My Heart is a very close 2nd pick at nice odds also.
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: E/W bet on I’m Jake and lesser sized bet on Unchain my Heart.
Flemington Race 6
Riziz: Ticks all the boxes. Won two in a row this prep on Good ground and then last start ran home very well behind Platelet and Smokin Joey for 3rd in the Group 1 over in Adelaide. Up to 60kg is an issue… but he is 2 from 3 down the straight and eats it up… flying.. hard to ignore.
Ready To Rip: Not the same this prep. At the weights very happy to ignore.
Pago Rock: Just ignore last start and rate on previous runs this prep. Goes well down the straight and has been flying as of late. To be honest he has been hard to catch as well though.
Essay Raider: Big win two back and then last start didn’t seem to handle the slow track at Morphetville. Handles a straight as proven by Group 3 2nd four runs back. Has to be considered.
Le Bonsir: Good horse, goes ok down a straight, but never won on it and found a few too good in easier races than this. KEY: Only ever won on Good tracks and most likely gets that today.
Pampelonne: Disappointing first up but was found to be lame. Goes better first up than 2nd up on record. Needs to have improved from last prep to place here.
Callanish: Not the same horse we knew. No thanks.
Geneal Peekay: Impressive win last start down the straight… he did lose by 3.8L to Essay Raider two runs back! Key chance.
Lonhspresso: Way under the correct odds today. Pulled up ‘lame’ after firs tup run but never looked comfortable either. Up in weight today… I have to take her on.
Octavia: Improved run last start but still 2 lengths off. Weighted ok today but others preferred.
Eximius: Showed promise last prep but only managed a best of 3rd. Better over further.
Jolie Blonde: Not going well enough to be considered as a place chance.
Grand Emperor: Wet tracker? Not sure on that. First up win was ok in MUCH easier race. Last two runs ok but not in this class surely?
Rich Jack: Disappointed not measuring up in R90 class over the 1300m when times suggested he should have won it. Can’t have here at weights.
Written Intent: Not good enough for these.
Comments: Two standouts here for me but this is a fairly open race and hard to judge. I have Riziz and Blackie as the two in my blackbook from their last runs and they rate on top at their respected prices.With Blackie scratched, Riziz was our top pick and is now a clear top pick.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 10, 11
Strategy: Riziz E/W
Flemington Race 7
Brambles: Ran ‘ok’ first up after a long way off over 1440m last start on slow at Caulfield. Weighted poorly again today and still not far enough.
Lord of Brazil: Showed nothing first up. Last prep didn’t show a hell of a lot either. Need to find that old gear.
Limes: He is much better late into his preps than at the start of them normally… but I was very excited to see him run so well first up off a hot tempo. He ran some solid 1:22 times last prep over the 1400m including his fastest for a 0.1L defeat to Anlon here last prep at these weights. As long as he gets a good spot in running early, he will be there at the finish with a hot tempo put on out front from The Cleaner ensuring he has the tempo to suit. Huge chance and huge odds.
The Cleaner: The speed in the race. They finally realised at the end of last prep that this horse wants shorter distances. Just send him out to set the tempo and they won’t catch him. 1400m looks a LITTLE short first up but i still consider him a top 3 chance here. Always runs well first up and loves a Good or Dead track… will be the pace setter and hard to pass.
Decircles: Disappointed on slow last start but not a surprise, this horse is better on a dryer track. Only win at distance was very much thanks to a slow tempo he got to set. Won’t happen today.
Another Prelate: Love this horse but not going well enough the last two preps and showed nothing first up.
Henwood: Good win last start but probably assisted by track conditions and luck that Tried and Tired got an average ride. 0.5kg better off at weights today… will he be suited by tempo today? I doubt it. Barrier has him a long way back.
Niblick: Decent horse, not sure his best is over 1400m and hasn’t shown it this prep apart from on slow. No thanks.
Alpha Proxima: I’m biased and like this horse… first two runs have been solid… will a switch up in distance finally and back to dryer tracks help?
Minnie Downs: Continues to run well this prep after a first up win. Form lines are all solid for her as well. Weighted nicely and Rhythm to Spare has franked that form over in Adelaide as well. Have to respect as a genuine chance.
Gig: Not within 4L the last three runs up in class.. Back in class here but hard to rate her winning this after last three starts.
Lord Durante: Not the same horse we knew from last prep. Can’t have here even back on dry.
Road Warrior: Not sure why he is nominated for this. Can’t have.
Tried and Tired: Unlucky 2nd last start at course and distance. Up in class today and not the best weighted. Certainly a huge chance again but not going to be our best bet today that is for sure. Maps well.
Shadow Ninja: Ignore last start needs dry tracks. Good run two back to win at Sandown in ok time… all previous runs as well suggest consistent horse. Has to improve 2 lengths to go close today though.
Koe: Shown us nothing this prep to suggest she can go close. Can’t have even at weights (which aren’t bad).
LuckyI’mBareFoot: Every chance over the 1400m on heavy last start. Back to Good and no thanks.
Chile Express: Can run a solid timed race… Will be running on from the back. Blowout chance.
Flyingconi: Not going well this prep. Can’t have.
Comments: This is one of those races that you have to looker deeper into form and look for the horses that can run solid sectionals all throughout the race thanks to The Cleaner leading and setting a hot tempo. Limes is the perfect horse today… the barrier is the only issue but he will push forward from the barrier, sit 2-3 back on the outside and be in the position you HAVE to be to chase down a runner like The Cleaner… you NEVER want to be in the back half of the race in these type of tempo races, these races are won by those in the forward third about 4 in every 6 races on my stats.
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 11, 15, 19
Strategy: Limes to win. Smaller bet on The Cleaner
Flemington Race 8
By The Grace: Got a gem of a ride last start to get the win at course over 1400m. Up 6kg today looks a little harsh and back on a dryer ground not ideal… still has the ability to win today but needs more to go his way. Barrier helps.
Self Sense: Fairly disappointing last start at Sandown. Expected a better run than that TBH. Only down 1kg after claims up in this class.
Tips and Beers: Not sure what to make of this guy. Up in class again and poorly weighted on my scales but has potential.
Jade’s Boy: Shown us nothing for a long while.. since 0.2L 2nd to Alpha Beat. I can’t have here.
Mista Spot: Missed start, blocked for runs and just beaten a nose on the line last start at Sandown. Huge run and eye-catching. Up in weight today but based on that run last start you have to consider him a big chance today.
Great Esteem: Every chance out front off an average tempo but couldn’t last. Have to take on again today.
Miss Maggiebeel: Didn’t handle the slow, simple. Proved to be an ok horse previous prep. Not sure I can back today on first up run and ‘potential’..
My Angus: Ran better than expected last start but at weights i’m happy to take on here. Too much to make up.
Native Land: Good win two back but last start disappointed by not exactly showing up on the day and running 5th. Harder class again today and equal weight… has to be considered as has ability.
Boombuster: Crazy price simply based on the run three back behind Brinb Back. Just ignore any runs on heavy or slow… the horse obviously wants it less wet. Gets that today and is weighted to win from barrier 1. Big chance and Coffey takes the ride.
Turnitaround: Consistent horse up in class again. Won’t measure up at weights.
Kirani: Couldn’t hold on in a BM-64 from an easy lead out the front. Can’t see here.
Zenithal: Maiden time was average at best. Can’t see this.
Denoninator: Won a very slowly run 1600m maiden. No thanks.
Pippingarra: Couldn’t win a maiden!!!
Comments: Not a fan of this race at all. By The Grace pretty much by default is the favourite. Open race but not very high quality 3YO race at all. Boombuster is the value of the race.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 9, 10
Strategy: By The Grace to win. Smaller bet Boombuster.
Morphetville Race 2
Saturday Affair is simply weighted to win today. Ran very very well last start in Group 3 company for 6th and was blocked for runs. Previous run was as impressive… only up 0.5kg today from Group 3 company down in this class and from barrier 2, maps to win this. Price looks way overs.
Strategy: Saturday Affair to win.
Doomben Race 3
Adebisi looks the overs here today. Quality horse who has measured up to the grade previously and goes very well first up with 4 wins from 9 first up runs. Loves the track and even though wide barrier, looks to be the obvious speed in the race. 1110m may just get him home.
Strategy: Adebisi E/W
Doomben Race 5
Tough race this. Srikandi is the one to beat but is short enough in the market now. Plucky Belle looks well weighted but the barrier is a little poor.
Jazz Song is a horse I have a big opinion of back on a Good track today. Good barrier today and Oliver takes the ride again at a very good weight today… back from a 2nd to Miracles of Life is very good form.
Comments: Hard to pass up the E/W odds on offer from Jazz Song today
Strategy: Jazz Song E/W
Doomben Race 8
Buffering: Went around a very short fav last start and was fairly well beaten. Up to 1350m today is a HUGE negative for me and barrier 8 means a little extra may be spent early. A top chance but still short in the market off last start.
Spirit of Boom: Just let go too late last start at Doomben and just didn’t have the time to get there. Might be an issue with distance today… but from what I’ve seen the horse won’t have a trouble with it. Maps well from barrier 2 today I feel but has to pass a wall of horses. The one to beat.
Temple of Boom: Took a sit last start at Doomben and finished as well at Buffering. Hard to see the win today but they could try push the lead again?
Rebel Dane: Goes well at this distance but last start as short priced favourite at Randwick was fairly disappointing. Have to just ignore that run and rate on Group 1 win last prep over 1400m on a Good track. Just because the horse handles the wet doesn’t mean it’s best is seen on it. Barrier hurts but should still get the correct spot in run.
Hot Snitzel: Decent win on slow two back but last start very poor. Hard to see placing.
Conservatorium: Not going well enough to place this prep.
Famous Seamus: Surprise win last start over 1200m. Can run this distance today but has to improve against all of these today. Barrier helps.
Knoydart: Done alot wrong last start. Fairly poorly in at weights against Spirit of Boom today. I can’t have him here.
Scream Machine: Not going well enough to win this off weights based on last prep. First up run had some merit though.
Driefontein: Just ignore last start run on slow.. doesn’t like it wet…. three of last 5 runs unplaced on slow tracks and other two were wins on good and dead. Maps well from barrier 5. Looks a threat.
Peron: Not shown enough this prep to suggest she can win this. No thanks.
Comments: Rebel Dane, Spirit of Boom, Driefontein and Buffering are the four key chances for mine in this race while Scream Machine is the speculation. I have to take Buffering on after last start. I also have to forgive Rebel Dane for last start. I really do have this to three at nice odds.
Strategy: Backing Rebel Dane to win. Smaller bet on Driefontein. Saver on Spirit of Boom.
Doomben Race 9
Precedence: Flew home late last start over the 1800m on Heavy when we weren’t expecting much considering his first up form. Had the time to train on as well today and aimed at the easier kill than last week. As long as horses are running on today, which should be happening late, he is the one to beat.
Waldpark: hasn’t exactly shown anything since landing in AUS and last win was in 2011… first up run this prep was horrible. No thanks.
Military Move: Just ignore first up run when on Heavy and rate on NZ form. Will appreciate the 2200m today but has to prove that he is as good as his Group 3 win over Who Shot TheBarMan suggested.
Zennista: Not the same horse who went close twice in WFA-G1s last prep based on first two runs this prep and then also last start in Group 3 company. Needs to improve today to win this, but maps well is the advantage.
Lauren Tate: Maps further back today than best seen previously but did run home well first up in Aus. Weighted nicely but has to improve.
Pretty Pins: Surprise winner very very well last start at Doomben with a solid tempo set up front. From barrier 4 today maps to sit forward enough again to get a good run. Looks a key threat.
Zephyron: Surprise winner last start in Listed company. This is harder again today but Hawkes yard are on fire and barrier 3 helps him get a great run today. Must respect.
Danchai: Ran well last two for 2nd and 2nd but didn’t get within 2 lengths. Has to improve significantly today even at the weights.
Skysoblue: Good 3rd last start in NZ but previous two runs were poor. Needs to improve to best form shown 5 runs back to have a hope.
Heartfelt Quest: Ran home well enough last start when missed the start. Has ability.
Raeburn: Simply put can’t see him being good enough to these. Place at best but even that is a struggle.
Vesper: Not going well enough to place.
Perfect Start: Best shown over lesser distances in lesser class. No thanks.
Freezy: Has improvement but this is a huge step up and poorly in at weights.
Trajet: Good horse, not good enough for this class at these weights especially on form.
Comments: Even at the weights, Precendence is over the odds today. Clearly the best horse in the race with the best form lines at a distance that suits. Have to saver Pretty Pins.
Strategy: Precedence to win. Saver on Pretty Pins
Randwick Race 5
See The World: Average at best the last two runs after first two runs were ok. Poorly weighted today also.
Arinosa: Great horse who fell away last prep. Goes well first up and never lost at track.. loves the distance… but very poor stats on slow ground.. if we do get a dead then you have to give her consideration especially with the upgrade expected.
Avoid Lightning: Good win two back and then last start was very solid in similarish company to the line when just too far back. Cosmic Endeavour has gone onwards and won again and again. Barrier 4, maps much better today. A top hope.
Hurrara: Wide barrier but maps to lead. Equal weight as last start win at Hawksbury in a sizzling 1:02.6 on a dead track. Shouldn’t have to go as fast today but can if they want… big chance here.
Recoinage: Hard to see her turning the tables on Avoid Lightning but three back run was encouraging.
Mount Nebo: Decent horse well up in grade today off 52kg… even at these weights not sure I could consider him a top hope.
Texan Lad: Big step up in class today. Way down in the weights but times suggest he isn’t good enough.
Alcaraz: Showed potential last prep but this is a massive step up first up. Not for me.
Furious Jet: Hard to see the step up from the CL2 to this and form isn’t that great.
Comments: Hurrara was stunning last start and has to be respected today. I have Hurrara on my ratings as huge overs today while Avoid Lightning is slightly unders. Arinosa is also a touch of overs.
Strategy: Hurrara to win. Saver Avoid Lightning.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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