Welcome to the Profits form guide for 17 July 2014 at Flemington. Last week at Flemington worked out well, but we didn’t have luck on our side with a few too many 2nds and 3rds. I maintain we were on the right horse, it just didn’t work out. The Best Bets were slightly up overall, but a bit of luck would have been a big day! Back to it again at Flemington and you have to believe we will see another race-day of horses given every chance from the back. A less classy card on offer means less best bets. Just a heads up for those who don’t know, i’m going on holiday from next Friday.. so the next two Saturday write-ups will be significantly smaller than you have come to expect. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 Jesse Belle
She won like a very good thing last start for us at Caulfield and finds herself up in weight but down in class today. I’m very happy the owners opted for the experienced jockey instead of a claimer. No issues in going back today in such a small field and hitting the line to win.
Melbourne Next Bet
Flemington Race 5 Rowland
This is a horse I’ve had my eye on since the last win at Caulfield which was a long time ago. I had a small go last start based on the two previous runs and I was blown away by the run. Rowland will be much closer and covering less ground today and is a horse who continues to run on and on and on. Way over the odds today and has to feature in my best bets. Very keen.
Melbourne Each-Way Special
Flemington Race 6 Hai Lil
This is a horse I have a lot of time for and today I have Hai Lil rated a $3 chance, while we are getting closer to the $5 quote. Gone up at a E/W price and i’m very happy to take the odds on offer. I don’t expect a big win if it occurs today and I also don’t expect Hai Lil to be far off the winner if we don’t win, so the E/W play fits here.
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 6, 8, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
I don’t like playing in these races, but with the introduction of a few ‘first starters’ into this race we are getting a nice price on a horse with a load of talent.
Gloop goes around at double figure odds today and looks suited in this race. Both runs this prep impressed and it was last start over the 1200m where we saw a very good horse developing. Race experience is essential in these races and will help him to run well.
Comments: Happy to have a small E/W play here.
Strategy: Gloop E/W
Flemington Race 2
Jessy Belle: Super win last start at Caulfield and ignoring the three back run, she is a class above these on times and ability. 60kg today well deserved and i’m very happy they opted for the experienced jockey instead of a claimer. No issues in going back today in such a small field and hitting the line to win.
Written: The horse in the race with the ability to knock off Jessy Belle, Written ran nicely last start without threatening. Best runs this prep have all been on Good surfaces so I have to ignore her here.
It’s One: Only won a 3F-MDN but has measured up in similar class in the past. Looks way under the odds today on form this prep.
Dainty Miss: Led them up and was gone a long way from home. Similar class today but rates nicely. Has to find a length or two today though.
Davarick: Very disappointing last start but must be forgiven for leading. Her best run and peak this prep was two back at Flemington 4.3L 4th to Dig A Pony. Should run well.
Belle Que: 7L 11th and 8th the two runs this prep in much easier.. no thanks.
Riverina Red: Proved to be a very good horse as a 2YO but is into her 2nd 3YO prep and all three runs since 2YO have been in 3Y/3F maiden class and maiden class for a 7th, 7th and 4th. Has the ability on 2YO form, but not for mine today.
Comments: Very keen on Jessy Belle who is well placed today.
Strategy: Big bet on Jessy Belle to win.
Flemington Race 3
Blue Ribbon: Big win four runs back at Morphetville in a harder class than this but next three runs have been average at best. Could win but I couldn’t bne on. Seems to be wanting a genuine wet track.
Madam Nash: The leader on paper. Been a long way off the last few runs but has been improving. Down in class again and back to a dryer track, can run well but has to find lengths.
Rememba Howe: Weighted ok today but has to find lengths compared to last start run.
Bet You She Rocks: Way up in weight today even after claims but did win very well at Sandown. Has to find more today it seems.
Friday Hussy: One decent run this prep, but showed nothing last start in Adelaide. Not sure what to make of her.. very good horse but showing us nothing!
Mossmoney: Continues to run well but been well beaten the last two starts. Weighted nicely today.
Warwarick: Lucky winner last start at Moonee Valley it felt like. Down in class and equal weight today.. did beat Atlantis Dream who has won since.. I think we do have to rate the form. Nicely weighted.
Reckless Assassin: Just ignore the first up run and rate on previous prep. Rates well in this grade and will take improvement from first up. Weighted nicely for this class…
Spirited Will: Failed due to track first up… no excuse last start. Has the ability and weighted well but can’t have just yet.
High Design: Not going well enough to win even at the weights off last few runs. No thanks.
Chateau Latour: Strange tactics last start but ran well without looking a winning chance. Has to improve 2 lengths today.
Regaliti: Good win last start in very easy class. Weighted nicely but hard to rate in this class.
Milkwood: Running well enough this prep without winning. Not sure I can see the improvement for this today.
Zinone: Not here.
Loma Diamonds: Won’t place.
Saclaye: Maiden only winner. Should stick to the R-64 grade.
Comments: Very poor race with some very average runners. Not keen at all to invest here.
Strategy: Warwarick to win.
Flemington Race 4
Stamina: Ran second to Arabian Gold on slow and heavy two runs in a row last prep and then beat Bull Point to finish his prep. Bullpoint since is a Group 3 winner and Group 1 placed while Arabian Gold is a multiple group winner. Back to 1000m down the straight today is the only concern, but generally have to suggest his price is WAY over the correct odds. Did win at 1300m last prep first up.
Handsome Tycoon: Both runs this prep have been very good. Ran nicely down the straight last start and can be expected to improve from that run.
O’Malley: Looks a heavy false favourite for mine. Only just got the win last start at Sandown in MUCH easier class and previous to that didn’t show me enough to suggest he is the best here. Big unders.
Trevinder: Progressed through the grades last prep well enough. First up run was good on a heavy surface. Back to dryer track today but still suited. Weighted fairly.
Whistle Baby: Very good horse and is 1/1 down the Flemington straight. Off 53.5kg today is crazy. Started $4.50 favourite last start in a harder race if you are asking me on the class on that race. She simply didn’t handle the ground. Back to a dead track today is ideal and is over correct odds.
Seven Falls: Big win first up last prep and then didn’t run up to that form next start and was found out. Back to 1000m looks the key and should have improved. Can run well.
Cosmic Lights: The watch of the race. Very strong win first up in maiden class on a heavy track in a blistering time. Has the ability.
This Is The Show: Not a place chance on my ratings.
Hugo Drax: Maiden winner and well beaten last run of last prep by a good horse in Minaj. Could return well today.
Liberty Hill: Maiden only winner. Even at the weights is in poorly ratings wise based on last prep and first up run. Could still place.
Comments: Happy to take the overs on offer for Whislte Baby and Stamina. O’Malley looks the lay of the day for mine. Seven Falls, Cosmic Lights with big chances if they live up to their hype while Handsome Tycoon can go close with a repeat of last start.
Strategy: Medium sized win bet on Whistle Baby. Smaller bet on Stamina.
Flemington Race 5
Crafty Cruiser: Got every piece of luck two back at Flemington with no tempo and that was the difference. Last start tempo was on and failed hard. Up in weight again today and not for me.
Fulgur: Dead set cat yet they said the horse failed due to track conditions.. so did it fail on HEAVY three runs back??? Please mate. Up in weight again today and i’m very happy to take him on today based on all the runs i’ve seen in Melbourne. Not a 2000m horse for me.
Backbone: Good horse on his day.. that doesn’t seem to be today based on first two runs.
Post D’France: Shown us nothing all prep. Very disappointing. Hard to have.
Thumbtacks: Based on best run two back, won’t be placing.
Shenzhou Steeds: Ran very well last start at Caulfield over the 2000m. Loomed but never threatening. Was in a good position as well that day and barrier 1 means he will get every chance again today.
Use The Lot: Down 2kg with claims today, he probably isn’t as suited to slow tracks as others and will appreciate less give in the ground. Didn’t finish off the race though which was a massive concern. Hard to have on last few runs.
Royal Mephisto: Rna nicely last start to win over 2000m. Much harder race today but is classy enough to win this.
Rowland: Eye-catching run for mine last start at Caulfield when went around big odds and had to go 4 wide from the start of the turn and was giving the main threats 3-4 lengths.. made up ground all through the straight and will be suited by being closer to the pace today in a smaller field and a longer straight to grind them down. BIG overs.
Eclair Samba: Won very well last start in Adelaide thanks to a very wet track. Has wins on Good in form lines.. don’t just dismiss.
Clang and Dazzle: Country runner. Big step up here and best seen on wetter. Not for me.
Comments: Very keen on backing Rowland here on the E/W
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 6, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Rowland 3 units to place 2 units to win.
Flemington Race 6
Lord of Brazil: Wasn’t that far off position 4 to 10 last start at Flemington but didn’t exactly finish it off like a good thing. Needs to find lengths today still.
Under The Eiffel: Shown absolutely nothing both runs this prep and up in weight again. No thanks.
Clang and Bang: Needs further. When they put this guy up to 1700m+ take note, will be winning.
Good Value: Was fairly flat to the line first up. Up to 1400m will help today based on only run last prep… but has been off more than a year so might take a little longer to get into it this prep? Weighted ok anyway.
Loot ‘N’ Run: While the record says he was blocked for runs last start at Caulfield, I maintain he had EVERY chance to win and wasn’t good enough to get the place. Best runs clearly shown on wetter tracks and in this grade will need a slow track to be in it and I can’t see that happening. Can’t have on top but have to respect.
Doubtfilly: Poor run two back and then repeated that last start. Up to 1400m looks a throw in the dark.
Future Solution: Two runs back this prep and shown us nothing. Happy to take on again in this class.
Alpha Proxima: Decent run last start at Caulfield but he was the first beaten out the front and I can’t see it on his recent form today.
Morant: Shows us alot but then breaks out heart and doesn’t deliver. Three back run was good but up to 1400m and back in class but still can’t have. You want him on a Good track and that is it.
Hai Lil: Slowly progresisng into her prep up in class agian today but down to 52kg. Weighted to win today and is proven at the track. Up to 1400m looks key.
Shadow Ninja: Ran well enough two starts back at Moonee Valley for 3rd but then up in class last start was poor. Three runs back was peak run and ran well. Clearly wants a fast tempo but I can’t see that in this race today. Pass for me especially with Bossy on.
Royal Island: Best runs have been seen on heavy and slow previously. Way up in class today but in career best form I’d suggest. Needs to find more today and looks under correct odds.
Free of Doubt: First up run was ‘average’ and then last start very poor. Has to find 2-3 lengths at least today to win this and I can’t see it.
Comments: Hai Lil is the absolute stand out and I can see a nice result coming from a 3 units to place 1 unit to win play.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 10, 12
Strategy: Hai Lil 3 units to place 1 unit to win.
Flemington Race 7
General Truce: Love him but not going well enough this prep.
Mr Make Believe: Had nothing to give when it mattered last start at Caulfield. Can improve today 2nd up but has to find lengths for mine.
Zamorar: Failed only run last prep. Previous prep managed a 0.1L 2nd to Pago Rock at course over 1100m and then 4th in WFA-G3 to Second Effort. Weighted ok today but I have huge questions over the 1000m and never won down the straight (always runs well though).
Sea Lord: Love this bloke. Close 2nd to Richie’s Vibe last prep when back to his best and then a good 5th in WFA-G2 to finish the prep. 1000m is a massive questionmark and never won down the straight.
Mr Good Cat: Meow! 52kg today up in class. Hasn’t won all prep and this is his hardest test. Back to 1000m looks suitable and weight is nice but is he this good? Not sure he is.
Flash Of Doubt: I like this horse, but she is a cat. Her first up run was very disappointing and I couldn’t go near her today.
Legcut: Impossible to catch this mare on her day. Should have been winning her last 3 runs at her best but hasn’t been even close to that. No thanks.
Fab Fevola: Oh Fabby. He always goes around as overs but it is safe to say eh has been found in the market today. NEVER runs a bad race at the track and 1000m is his distance. The dryer the track the better and if we have a upgrade, confidence has to grow in him here. Will look the winner at the 100m.
Smackdown: Haven’t seen him since November last year. Showed enough progression to suggest he has to be respected today, but last win was a R-68!
It’s Poets Day: Not here today thanks.
Comments: No real stand out in this race today and I can’t ignore Fab Fevola at the E/W odds again. There is no reason (apart from the jockey) to be against him here. He always runs well at Flemington down the straight. I mean a 2L 2nd to Shamal Wind should be winning this and his times are sound.
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 8
Strategy: Fab Fevola E/W
Flemington Race 8
Ringo: Lost by 3L last start but on replay it was a very solid run. He was checking off heels in the straight and that cost him a little bit and most likely 4th. Back in class big time today and up to 58kg after claims, Rates very well and will be suited sitting further forward today.
Durnford: Last prep did run a 1.5L 2nd in Listed company over 1600. Showed nothing first up the issue.
Prizum: Blocked for run first up but was never winning over 1000m. 1600m still looks too short for 2nd up and hasn’t won since 2012. Was going well last prep but over 2000m+ once into prep.
Road Warrior: Saved ground on the inside last start and finished off well. Others preferred for mine on that run though. At the weights though, only up 1.5kg today which has him well in.
Onpicalo: Very disappointing last two runs on heavy but just ignore. Back to a suitable track condition and the only leader in the race, will get his own way out front and could steal it.
Chile Express: Eye-catching run first up for a close 3rd when blocked for runs several times in the straight at Caulfield. Good 2nd up form and maps well enough from barrier to be running on. Won’t be left wondering wanting a run today.
Midnight Glory: Shown nothing both runs this prep. Payne jumps off also. No thanks.
Academy Jack: Covered a lot of ground last start at Caulfield when 4-wide around the turn and had to go 5-6 wide to get off heels in the straight and lsot about half a length there. Just ran out of steam coming to the line but did loom as a big chance. Will be suited by 1600m today after that tough run and two weeks between runs. Weighted well.
Vizhaka: Ran well enough first up but up 2kg today from barrier 12. Up to 1600m helps but aim is to get to 2000m to find his best. Needs to peak to win this.
Aeratus: Hard to discount this Magnus gelding on his last five runs. Continues to improve. Boss back on the massive worry!
Amovatio: Every chance last start and not good enough. Back to open class today and I think he is very much exposed at the weights. Happy to take him on.
Flyingconi: Not winning on everything we have seen the last two starts.
Auld Burns:Hurdles his go not this.
Anudjawun: Looking for further.
Harveys True Heart: Ran well enough for 2nd behind Aeratus last start. Barrier 1 probably goes more forward today.. but has to find another level to win this.
Comments: Very open last race of the day. I can’t ignore the run of Chile Express last start and I’m very happy to be on him here at the price. Six key winning chances.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11
Strategy: Chile Express E/W
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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