Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington, Rosehill and Sunshine Coast on 28 June 2014. Well last week almost went to plan but unfortunately luck wasn’t on our side. Our Best Bet at MV was never passed the whole race but got an unlucky bob that cost us the win at juicy odds. The Cleaner saved the day and cleaned up to get us into the positive. Onto today.. we have our most confident bet for the year who is a stand out on a run a few weeks back while an old favourite who saluted at big odds gets a run again back in a very winable race at odds way over those the horse should be. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 Charmed Harmony
The most exciting horse I’ve seen all year. Charmed Harmony will make all the running tomorrow. He is able to put on a solid tempo and blow them away or set a reasonably fast tempo and then FLY away from them like last start when winning by 8 lengths not touched at all! Very keen and very happy to take these odds on offer. They aren’t short at all for the horses ability. Handles the long straight.
Interstate Best Bet
Sunshine Coast Race 7 Mr O’Ceirin
Mr O’Ceirin has been a bit of a money muncher if betting just the win all prep, but you made it back on the place if you were on E/W. Way back in class today, if he repeats three of his four previous runs here today from the positive barrier, he will be winning. Big price all things considered.
Melbourne Next Bet
Flemington Race 2 Under The Louvre
Ran very well all things considered last start that went against him up in Sydney. Way back in class today and back to a more suitable distance. Will be suited by the ground and at the weights is a 2 lengths better horse than all of these on their form to date.
Interstate Next Bet
Rosehill Race 6 Tromso and Bagman
Two horse play. Very happy to take on the favourites who I feel are shorter in the market than they should be. Both Tromso and Bagman will appreciate the ground today and their previous runs don’t truly reflect what their real market prices should be. We will go close with this bet at great odds. Bet to win equal amount on either horse.
Melbourne Best E/W Bet
Flemington Race 3 Refulgent
Has gone up as a short priced favourite the last two starts and done a lot wrong to lose the races. Still ran very well both of those loses and deserves to be more fancied in the market than he is right now. We are getting E/W odds for the first time in four runs and i’m very happy to snap these up!
Interstate Best E/W Bet
Rosehill Race 7 Senta Desert
Let me be clear. If there is a massive leader bias, then this play is scratched. If the track is playing fair, then Senta Desert back on a Good track today is a HUGE chance and the price is WAY overs. Weighted to win.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 11, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 6, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
As always, these races are a hard way to open the day and without seeing a superstar in the making in the mix, it’s hard to bet with any confidence.
Crafty has to be respected on the first up 3L win on slow. What A Hoot was good but never threatened given a good ride at MV while Profit Share looms as the one who could be nice odds based on the first two solid runs. Roundabout proven at the track in this grade also suggests a bit of class.
Comments: Crafty to win if having a bet here.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Crafty to win. Smaller bet Profit Share
Flemington Race 2
Under The Louvre: Simply too far back last start up in Sydney but finished off the race nice enough to finish 3.5L behind Cosmic Endeavour who is now a Group 1 winner at 3YO class. Back in distance which is required and down the straight should suit. Weighted nicely against this pack. I said it last time he went around as our best bet at Caulfield, this guy is a very good horse. Over the correct odds today.
The Monstar: Can’t fault any of his previous three runs when winning twice and an unlucky 2nd. Much harder class of race today though. Testing material.
Melrose Place: Very disappointing run last start but finished it off ok. Will improve today but not so sure she will find the lengths required to win.
Allez Eagle: A little unlucky first run in Australia but ran home well for a solid 4th. Will be tested first time down the straight but goes well on slow or dead tracks and has won in this class previously. Top chance.
Counter Spin: First time down the straight. Way up in class today but should run a decent race.
Mio Dio: The wetter the better for him. Would prefer it heavy today to find his best. Outclassed.
Pilly’s Wish: Solid horse who has a win over Srikandi on her record this prep. Hasn’t won in four runs since (one was a 0.5L defeat to Srikandi) but continues to put in solid runs. Weighted ok here but massive step up in class again.
Handsome Tycoon: Solid enough first up win on slow up in Sydney. First time down the straight and way up in grade. Has to find much more here.
Majestic Cheval: Much better run off the front last start. Not in this class though even with times.
Beleeup: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Hard to suggest that he could place.
Hay One: Brother to Hay List… this is a massive first up run grade to go into. Happy to take on with no trial form. Crazy price today.
Comments: No surprise I keep coming back to Under The Louvre here. 3-4 key chances in the race at best on form and you can’t fault Under The Louvre’s form lines in the slightest.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Under The Louvre to win.
Flemington Race 3
Pit Boss: First up run and win was in a CL1…. then failed in R-72. Up to 3YO and still off 57kg after claims. No thanks.
Dig A Pony: Huge win last start at course over 1400m. Up to 1600m is suitable and track will suit again. Big issue for mine is a peak run like that being backed up… but based on first up should be possible. Harder class today.
Refulgent: Gone under as $2.8 and $2.4 favourite the last two runs when had troubles in both runs. Clear run today and wins this.
El Capo: Massive step up in class here today for a 3YB-64 winner. Can’t see it.
French Hussler: Probably just ignore last start and rate on previous three runs. Massive step up in class is the worry and back in distance also.
No Equivalent: No superstar on previous form lines. Weighted ok today but couldn’t win a R-64 last prep and first up run was just average. No thanks.
Second Bullet: 12L maiden winner last prep in a fast time over 1510m. Good first up run considering failed due to heavy track. If dead today then have confidence he will run well.
Zebrinz: Good finish to last prep but shown nothing on two runs this prep. Hard to have.
Kareeming: Maiden only winner and times aren’t impressive. Not for mine.
Kwanza: Heavy maiden win.. won’t get that today. Need it wetter.
Runhardt: Surprise winner last start in maiden company. Need to surprise us even more today to place.
Good Music: Decent horse who hasn’t won anything but her maiden.. Continues to run well in city and in this grade but has to find lengths here.
Speed Gonzales: Not as fast as the cartoon character. Decent run two back but on last start can’t have here.
Pharrell: Owners wouldn’t have been ‘Happy’ with his first up run. Either looking for it very heavy or much easier than this today.
Gold Cufflinks: No gold to be found from this runner. R-58 winner says it all.
Comments: Happy to take on Dig A Pony today suggesting last start was the peak and the horse up in class will go backwards while there are two runners with massive improvement to come on this run.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Refulgent to win. Saver Second Bullet.
Flemington Race 4
Sacred Flyer: Decent win last start at course and distance but he is certainly under the correct odds today.. Very happy to take him on and if he does win, it’s not by much here at the weights.
Zuma Roc: If we get a dead track today then you have to consider him a hope… but look for his best on a Good track. Will be running on nicely and if the track continues to dry like it has overnight then a top hope. The sun is currently out.
Crafty Cruiser: Improved effort second up when a nice 4th. 52kg again today and should have trained on.. can run even better.
Bells of Troy: Good first up run then nothing. Up in distance again. Not backing with my money!
Maythehorsebemagic: Good horse, better over the jumps. Just here for a run.
Supremacy: Very disappointing all runs this prep. Can’t have.
Hannaford: Improved run last start when close 2nd to Sacred Flyer. Could improve again today but has to find much more on this ground.
King of Dudes: No form lines to speak of and can’t have.
Tampere: Improved run last start when 0.5L 3rd to Sacred Flyer. Has to find a length today but even then better horses to beat also.
Comments: Scratchings have taken out half of the field here and my two top picks. Zuma Roc is the next in line and the track has dried out enough for the horse to show us a good run. Couldn’t touch the price on Sacred Flyer with someone elses money.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Zuma Roc to win
Flemington Race 5
Thumbtacks: Good horse but first two runs this prep have been very disappointing. Top weight again and hard to see the improvement today.
Flyingconi: Ran beyond expectation two back at Sale when close 2nd to Thunderbird One. Last start was well beaten in easier company at MV. Not weighted very well for mine.
Charmed Harmony: The best run i’ve seen all year from a runner. Looks to be a sensation in the making if you ask me. He was equally impressive two runs back. Nicely weighted today and up to 1610m, Barrier 1 is perfect and maps to lead and run this along at whatever clip he wants to. Keen.
Aeratus: Done nothing wrong all prep but just missed the win last start at course over 1800m.. Back to 1600m today and up in class off equal weight.. Will be in this but probably finds 1-2 too good.
Harvey’s True Heart: Well backed last start in MUCH easier company but still couldn’t get the job done. Not for me here.
Onya Keithy: Two solid runs last two runs but up in class today after not having the heart to win either. The wetter the better up in this class for him.
Commemorate: BM-64 win in average at best time. Can’t rate here even on decent runs last prep.
Tiny’s Legacy: Good win last start at Sandown beating a decent field. Form lines are sound but this is another step up in class today. Oliver jumps off is key for mine. Won’t get the sectionals wanted today.
Tristam’s Sun: Very good win two back at Sandown then showed nothing last start at Flemington up in class. Equal class today and has to find much more. Wetter the better.
Faith ‘N’ Belief: R-64 winner on Heavy after 11 races of not getting a win. Not in this.
Grand Allowance: CL2 winner… this is too big a step.
De Nederlanden: Ran ok last start but times not very good at all and was R-58. Should be off 44kg today and still wouldn’t win i’d say.
Comments: Charmed Harmony the clear standout and gets my highest rating for the year to date.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 9
Strategy: Charmed Harmony to win. Banker in every multi.
Flemington Race 6
Blackie: Ignore last start and rate on previous run. Up to 1400m which is much more suitable today and will be going to the back to run on. Every chance.
Lord Of Brazil: Good horse on his day but that hasn’t been for well over a year and a half. Hard to have on first three runs.
Anlon: Too far back off a slowish tempo last start. Will improve for that run today up to 1400m where he is better suited. Faster tempo expected and weighted nicely based on his previous listed win at course and distance.
Constant Force: Very good win four runs back but nothing outside of that. Hard to have at this distance 2nd up.
Henwood: Every chance last start but showed nothing at all. Better on a wetter track than this, but loves Flemington. Hard horse to catch.. this class looks beyond him.
Said Com: A fair cat. Hasn’t won in 13 runs yet starts below $10 almost every run. Track conditions today will suit but this is a class beyond him on recent form.
Thunderbird One: How do you rate him today? Very good first up run and win at Sale but this is a much harder class of race. Not sure beating Flyingconi is decent form line. Has to be respected.
Jimando: Every chance last start but couldn’t knuckle down for the win. Up in class but suited by extra distance and track conditions today.
Durnford: Never won first up and never placed at distance. No thanks.
Road Warrior: Jump in grade and class. Hard to have on recent runs back to this.
Ringo: Started favourite in a WFA-G3 over in NZ but finished 5th. Hasn’t measured up outside of BM-85 grade but did win well first up. Has to make a big improvement today.
Shadow Ninja: Ran well enough last start at MV and even previous to that at Flemington. Gets his best surface today but has to find improvement again.
Vizhaka: Can’t have on last prep but previous preps speak highly of improvement that could occur?
Akavoroun: Disappointed last start at Moonee Valley when ridden further back than expected, wide and just found one too good. Can improve today and has to be considered a chance, but big step up in grade.
Number One Gun: Not on first two runs this prep. Can’t see placing.
Adjuster: A decent horse last year in lesser grades, he isn’t in this class.
Comments: Open race with 5-6 key chances. Blackie is the horse that is the clear value in the race based on runs this prep and potential shown last prep.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 11, 14
Strategy: Blackie E/W
Flemington Race 7
General Truce: Showed nothing first up. Very disappointing. Equal weight and hard to have today.
Broken: I can’t have him here. He has showed nothing. Has the ability but I want to see a good run first.
Pampelonne: Every chance last start but looked to have an issue or something that caused that run. Has the ability.
Shanghai Warrior: Good first up run but no where near good enough. Hard to have up in grade again.
Don’t Get Excited: Big return and win last start and was nice finishing 3rd behind Lord of the Sky the previous run. Issue is never won at track previously. Big chance.
The Thief: Significantly improved run last start at Flemington winning in good time with ease. Have to respect that run.
Daytona Grey: Continues to run well without winning. Ability to run well today.
Doubtfilly: Every chance last start and not good enough. Did finish off ok for 3rd but couldn’t have here today on that run.
Vain Queen: Strong win last start at MV as favourite. Improved run and looks to be returning to her best. 2 from 2 down the straight is key here and off 52.5kg, weighted to win.
Al Aneed: 3Y-GP3 2nd to start last prep. Previous prep measured up in similar grade as well. Good horse who has improvement to show.
Felidea: Can’t have on last prep in this grade. Needs further.
Impulse Buy: Two runs this prep have been good. Has to find MUCH more today.
Rain Fast: Not this grade. Good effort would be 4L off the winner.
Comments: Very hard race to split the top four or five. I won’t be betting here as prices don’t offer much advantage. Pampelonne is the value on ratings and prices.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Don’t Get Excited on top from The Thief.
Flemington Race 8
Lady Melksham: Not the same horse from two and three preps back. Can’t have here in this class at these weights.
Jolie Blonde: Good horse on her day. Improved big time last start and the money suggested she would back in mares grade. Up to 57kg today is an issue if you ask me, but this is a fairly winnable race. Up to 1400m suitable.
Angelic Lass: Showed nothing first up on a track that should have been suitable but should have been leading not out the back? Down to 53kg today helps.
Evie Rose: Only running fairly this prep. I couldn’t have here.
Sinhala: Huge 4.5L win last start on Heavy at Snadown. Consistent mare who continues to run well in any grade. 1400m is ideal and ground no issue today at the weights. Will be out the front and bloody hard to run down!
Nautical: Very good run 2nd first up to Vain Queen at MV from out the back. Down to 52kg and looks weighted to win. Will be far back during running but barrier helps.
Reckless Assassin: I really like this horse. Very strong last prep but needs further than 1400m and never placed first up. Best on Good ground.
Balaclava Lady: First up run was ok but not a heavy runner. Will improve but how much? Not sure I can take on trust here.
Junoesque: A horse with a big future but how does she measure up? Her first up run was huge but last start was very disappointing. On dead today a big chance.
Nadhima: All three runs this prep have been nice without going close. Has to find 2 lengths to compete. Good place chance.
Kimiko: Nothing shown first up. Not exactly much more second up either.
Galway Warrior: Couldn’t win a R-64 two back. Not going well enough.
Ravir: Not in this class.
Comments: An interesting way to finish the day. Four key hopes as per the Quaddie numbers. Nautical is weighted to win and has runs on the board, but Junoesque has the X Factor.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Nautical E/W. Saver Junoesque.
Rosehill Race 5
Only one horse i’d want to be on here and it’s Destiny’s Kiss. I’d need at least $3.20 to get on though.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Destiny’s Kiss at $3.20+
Rosehill Race 6
Tromso comes into this as a massive price. Won first two runs this prep in good times and in good company. Back to Good track today after failing last start due to track conditions.. big price.
Eigelstein has to be respected but big step up today.
Scream Machine will be hitting the line hard and is the real deal.
Bagman back on a Good track today could produce something good at odds getting 6kg better off today vs Scream Machine.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Two horse play. Tromso and Bagman to win.
Rosehill Race 7
Senta Desert is massive overs in this race today. Best runs by a mile have been on Good tracks and over distances similar to this. Back in class and weighted very well… from barrier 4, he will be running on late.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Senta Desert E/W.
Rosehill Race 8
Will the real Field Marshall please stand up? This is a horse who at an early age showed us vast potential but just hasn’t exactly delivered in spades. Last prep his runs were all very good, but alot he just fell short of getting the win. 1.8L 3rd to Knoydart is nothing to laugh at form wise. Good track a key today. Big chance and big odds.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Field Marshall E/W
Sunshine Coast Race 6
Spitfire Lady measured up last start behind Jazz song and today at $20+ looks huge overs.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Spitfire Lady 2 units to place 1 unit to win.
Sunshine Coast Race 7
Mr O’Ceirin has been set for this run after a nice prep competing in much harder WFA and group company races. Brave Ali was our tip and winner last start at Ippy from start to finish in a very good race, but we are happy to take him on today with Mr O getting a new jockey and willing to take a sit off a hot pace. More rain would be appreciated, but back in this class, he is the horse to beat today by far.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Mr O’Ceirin to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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