Horse Racing Form for Flemington Saturday 14 December 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form for Saturday races at Flemington. Caulfield was certainly a blast last week with our tips continuing to hit them no matter the race. It will be tough to repeat that effort with the card on hand today, but you know me, lets give it a go! I’m bullish about the Best Bet today.. I have big hopes for this horse going forward and was super impressed with last start run. The price of $7 is wrong. Flamberge features again in our best bets having won first up at $4s as our Best Bet at Caulfield. The key for him today is the step back 100m (he looked to be falling out that first run) and back to down the straight where he is bomb proof. The best value comes in the last with Churchill Dancer.. this is a big of a speculation bet that the horse being so fast back in class only has to improve 0.5 to 1L to win.. maps perfectly and will be ahead of the main threats at the 200m.  As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 Freshwater Storm

Next Best
Flemington Race 3 Flamberge

Best Value
Flemington Race 8 Churchill Dancer

Sydney Spec
Randwick Race 8 Jacquinot Bay

Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Two:  1, 4, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 7, 9, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 12, 13

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Flemington Race 1
Big talk about this Kav runner Chivarly. I wouldn’t be looking past the two Hayes runners either here or I Am The General.

No bets here as always.

Flemington Race 2
Sinhala: Hard horse to catch on her day. Never placed at track from 3 tries and weighted poorly here.
Espirit’s Choice: Come back this prep and won two in a row in easier company… step up in class today and up in weight. Can’t see why she can’t go close again.
First Bloom: Showed us a lot last prep in Group class 6th and 7th. First up on Heavy ran very well slowly away and still winning well. A similar class race today and up 2kg after claims, the barrier suits and she will be suited by this track. One of the horses to beat.
Spirit of Soul: Progressed through the grades well last prep and returned after 8 months with a dominant start to finish win at Sale. Up in class today and down 0.5kg.. the time at Sale was super fast and she will be putting on the pace again it seems from barrier 4.
Averau: Has won first up and has won at this distance.. but on last prep would suggest she wants further than this today. Looks a quality mare and if returns at best can run on well from barrier 3.
Kiss me Ketut: Good win at MV last start and down 4kg today after claims. Sure You Can didn’t do much last night though which is an issue.
Spellrocker: Come back this prep in strong order winning two in a row. THis is a big step up though!
Haham: Done ‘enough’ this prep without impressing. I can’t see it today at the weights.
St Issey: Last two runs have been sound but lacks the hard to tough out a win it seems getting done by 0.1L last start. Down in distance doesn’t look the go for mine.
Melting Moment: All 3 runs this prep have been good. Blocked for runs last run which cost the win. Can go well today.
Arena Rock: Hard to see measuring up off last start run.
Sunset In Venice: Weighted well today agianst Spirit of Soul down 5kg today and meets 4.5kg better off.
Federica: Boss takes the ride. Ran well two back over 1400m but last start at MV was poor. Been off a bit coming back into this run. Needs a fast pace on.

Comments: Bloody tough race to get a individual horse on top and get a price I want. Won’t be playing here but have given my picks.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Sunset in Venice on top from First Bloom

Flemington Race 3
Del Palio: Hasn’t won at track or distance previously. Has won first up though. Got a win last prep on slow… previous win was a long time back. Hard to see at weights.
Impulse Buy: Good horse who went close first up. Up to 60kg today and down the straight.. but did go well down the straight last prep so should handle it. Might not get cover which is a huge issue with the weights for mine.
Eight Bills: Never won at track from 6 tries but heavily down in class today and only up 2.5kg after claims. Showed enough this prep to suggest can run well.
Flamberge: The class runner and one to beat. Won at course and distance last prep beating Lankan Rupee! 57.5kg today and rates well. Needs to improve from last stat though. Never runs a bad race. Last 5 starts has won 2 and lost 3 by 0.8L or less.
Nicholls Court: Big run last start when blocked for runs in Listed company behind Lankan Rupee. Never won at the track but has placed 4 times. A little surprised they didn’t put a claimer on him today. Massive issue for mine is the gate. The horses you want to be taking a sit behind will be on the other side of the course!
Big Buddie: Hard to see off the last 10 runs. I rate the horse but need to see something.
General Jackson: Good win last start at Moonee Valley. Horse flew. Will take a sit most likely behind the fav here which gives him every chance. I just don’t think I could take the price in this type of race.
Schumacher: Was the horse you wanted to be on last start at the valley and got the money. Has strong form at 1000m with 3 wins 3 places from 6 but never ran at this track previously or down a straight. Can run a nice time. Barrier helps.
Spartini: Has won twice firs tup previously. Last prep showed us nothing. Hard to have.
Beltonic: Not going well enough for this.
Cahier: Hard to see this one measuring up off first prep. No thanks.
Taddei Tondo: Best runs over further. This is a big step up and hard to see the win here.
Kaiser Sun: Strong time last start and down 6kg today. Not the worst coming into this but has been off a long time!
Reel Way: Horse better on rain affected tracks. Last start was ok and down 8kg today… not the worst $51 chance I’ve ever seen.

Comments: Down the straight! The key for Flamberge here is back to 1000m which is where this horse is best seen.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Flamberge to win from Nicholls Court.

Flemington Race 4
Outlandish Lad: Run on well two back behind Smokin Joey and then last start a good 3rd behind Lord Durante and Wimble who have gone out and won since. Off 57kg again, should be going close today.
Amaethon: I love the horse but hasn’t returned at his best. Hard to have.
Oregon Spirit: Just ignore first up run at an unsuitable distance and on heavy. The horse is better on ground like he will get today. 1400m is probably not his bet distance, but he will have every chance at these weights.
The Peak: Ran well enough last start without ever looking the winner I’d say. Won’t be as close today but will take a sit. Weighted ok.
Eraset: Good to see this bloke back at the races off 53kg! Not the best runner first up but has won first up previous. See how he has returned then get on next few starts.
Surpass: Talented gelding who is suited by longer distances.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Won a blinder of a race winning from start to finish. Equal weight today but never placed at Flemington is a concern.
The New Boy: Just a stupid ride last start. Will be ridden for the lead today and will be pushing the speed on which is what suits this horse. Weighted 0.5kg better than Loot today which should be the difference.
Rockpecker: Weighted poorly today against runners from previous start. Not sure can reverse that.
Too Deadly: Missed start last start at Seymour but in a fast run race sprinted well. Down 5kg today and I actually give him a really good chance as the speed will be on.

Comments: The New Boy will surely be ridden correctly today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: The New Boy to win. Saver on Outlandish Lad.

Flemington Race 5
Zabisco: Hard to see winning at weights on last few runs even though back in class.
Auld Burns: Last start was poor but two back in a lesser grade was ok. Not the worst in this.
Post D’France: Hard to know what to make of last start. Was it just too far? Two back run at Flemington was huge. Didn’t deserve to have that kick in the final 150m but did! Can run well today at the weights.
Freshwater Storm: Just wipe off two back run at course when too far back. He ran on well that day. Three back run was super and last start at similar distance was a big explosive win. Down 0.5kg today and rates to win this. Big odds.
Chile Express: Strong win first up this prep in a very fast time. I doubt they run this that fast and last start was very poor 2nd up. Up in weight today as well. Others look better in this for mine at distance.
Simmering: Nothing short of impressive last prep up in Queensland finishing off with a 6 length win on a good track. Won 2/2 first up. Must be included in quaddie!
Stratigraphy: Beaten well two back and then last start improved to win at Wodonga. This is much harder class and up in weight.. but comes in ok.
Backstedt: Weighted much better today after an ignore run last start. Can win this.
Minne Downs: Placed 2 from 2 at track. Two back ran well behind Wistful who is a talented mare. Super disappointing last start when suggest should have gone closer in easier company. Up to 54.5kg today but can run well from barrier. Will be further back.
London Stripe: Ran well but didn’t show me enough last start at Caulfield. Weighted well off 52kg is the only thing in favour. 1 place from 6 starts at track.
Adjuster: Ran 0.4L 2nd to Multilaterial at course and similar distance three runs back. Shown nothing since. Hard to see on those last two runs.
Waterford Hill: Not going well enough on runs this prep.
Subiaso: Ran ‘ok’ without threatning last start at Caulfield. Down in class and down 3kg today.. but won’t measure up here.

Comments: Freshwater Storm can continue to improve and beat them here.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 9
Strategy: Freshwater Storm E/W

Flemington Race 6
Another Prelate: Love this bloke but he just doesn’t win. X3 2nd, a 3rd and 4th last prep. Last four runs at this course didn’t run 1.3L or further outside of winning. Never won over 1200m which is a massive issue and not the best first up runner.
Cascabel: Showed nothing last start but two back down straight ran well off similar weight. Not sure good enough.
Like Bolt: Slowly away last start and ran on ok without threatning. Down 6kg today and goes well enough down the straight.
Hotham heights: Went close ending last prep at MV behind Le Bonsir. First up on heavy was an ignore run even though went close. Not the worst here but better into preps.
Morant: Down 3kg today. Ran well behind Flamberge. Never won down the straight is an issue. 7 Attempts at track.
Snow Cover: Better over further distances as proved last prep with a win over The New Boy at 1600m. Goes ok first up but not last two preps.
Decircles: Down 3kg today after running only fairly behind Flamberge 2nd up. Can run well.
Infinite Energy: The weight today is an issue. Meets Decircles and Morant 3kg worse off at the weights today, but one would suggest he will be better again 2nd up while the other two are further into preps and may have already peaked or have less imporvement in them.
Baron Douro: First up run was poor. Last start of last prep ran very well down the straight for a 4th in easier company. Weighted ok but probably better off wetter.
Alert The Jewller: Good horse who failed to progress last prep and runs this prep been only avg. No thanks.
Tycoon Express: Last start improved in much easier company. Equal weight. Hard to see.

Comments: Infinite Energy is against it today at the weights but I find it hard to ignore the horse today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 8, 10
Strategy: Infinite Energy to win. Saver Decircles.

Flemington Race 7
Whisper Downs: Ignore last start, the horse hates the wet. Down to 57kg today off two really strong runs recently. Back to a track he enjoys from a barrier that means he will get every chance. Schofield goes off the horse which is a concern, but does need the claim. A big chance in the race.
Constant Force: Weighted poorly today against Whisper Downs. On that alone I couldn’t have.
Keep Cool: Just ignore last start when carried too much weight and was too far back. Weighted nicely today and will take a sit forward. Can run on ok.
Fieldmaster: Runs well on the flat. Hurdles horse. Goes well enough first up. Probably too hard today though?
Prizum: Last two runs have just been too poor to back today even at weights.
Gottino: Ran on well enough last two starts. Weighted ok but hard to see winning off those runs.
Electric Fusion: Very well backed last start when went forward and just snuck the win. Weighted to win again today.
Flashy Fella: Too far back last start on a leader controlled race. Down in weight but not sure can turn the tables again.
Multilaterial: A bit disappointing last start but wasn’t suited by the track. Will rush home late and give a sight.
Outback Joe: Much better hose deep into preps, but last prep showed he runs well at this track and at big distances. Has won 2 from 4 at distance and placed 2 from 3 at track. Looks way over the odds today if you consider last two runs at track.
Angola: ran on ok in much easier company last start up at Randwick. Down to 52kg today. Never placed at track but the horse has talent.

Comments: Two favourites certainly deserve to be just that… but this race is also much deeper than it seems.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 7, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Outback Joe on the E/W

Flemington Race 8
Prince of Penzance: Been off 7 months after winning a 3YO race here and running 2nd in another. Has won at similar distance previously but is better over further.
Longeron: Strong enough 2nd prep before going for a spell. Back today and never won first up. Should run ok.
Paige’s Boy: Super disappointing last two runs. Hasn’t measured up last two runs. Need to find something special.
Floatmyboat: Strong enough win firs tup but 2nd up a bit poor. Need to find 2 lengths at a track and distance he has never placed.
Sistine Demon: Looks the one to beat even though Remagen Bridge ran poorly last start. Continues to progress.
Grand Slam Eagle: Big win at course and further distance last prep on the slow… first up run was solid without impressing on heavy. Hard to rate but can run well.
Nisos: Had every chance last start and was poor finishing TBH. Back in class and up 2kg.. could run well but needs further IMO.
Catered: Hit the line well last start but 0 places in career from 10 tries at this distance.
Churchill Express: Going ok this prep but will find a few too good in this class.
Edgewood: Firs tup run was ok but didn’t impress me enough to back here.
Churchill Dancer: Last few runs this prep have been solid without going close so to speak. Ignore last start and rate on two previous runs behind repeat winners Paximadia and Bernabeu. Weighted so well.
Nautical: Beat home Chiquada by 0.1L last start. Chiquada won last night at MV. Down 1kg and hasn’t been more than 0.8L back the last five runs. This race looks suited to her.
Tiryns: Couldn’t win in country class first up but did run ‘ok’. Need to find much more to win this.
Great De Here: Very poor first up. Hard to see turning this around.

Comments: Tough way to finish the day.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 12, 13
Strategy: Churchill Dancer E/W. Smaller win bet Nautical

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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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