Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on Saturday 21 December 2013. This is our last form guide for racing before Christmas so I just want to wish you all a happy and most importantly safe Merry Christmas. Flemington has presented us with a wide open card. This is Christmas racing. A few down the straight which is always a challenge but you can generally find a pattern early and this will help for the final race of the day. As always, I hope you form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Flemington Race 4 Oltre Finito
Flemington Race 8 Truffles
Flemington Race 7 Ali Vital
Best Place Bet
Flemington Race 3 Instrumentalist
You get no Omen Bet bigger than a horse named Spending around Christmas time!
Flemington Race 4 Spending
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 10, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Adirondack: Solid enough win in maiden company when won well last start as well. 60kg but has proved he can carry weight.
Gracious Prospect: Good horse who led all the way at Caulfield last start. Down 1.kg today and barrier 2, they will take a sit today which suits the horse bwtter. Countersnip has made the form look solid also. Big chance.
Blonic Hill: Only just won an average maiden at MV last start but all his runs have been solid. Don’t dismiss.
Bobcat: Maiden only winner in average fashion. I can’t have on that.
Our Kapow: Good win on Heavy to break maiden but then failed in 2YO. Better on wet I assume on form.
Stone In His Shoe: Won an ok maiden in average fashion. Not up to these.
Bring Back: Very poor the last three runs then went back in class last start to get a win. Not in this class.
Pendles: Looks ok, but certainly not the best in this based on form.
Shadow Image: Won maiden only fairly.. then had breathing issues last start. Not sure good enough for this.
Star Beauty: Weighted to win today. Won her maiden well, then had a forgive run on heavy when too far back after missing the start. Last start ran on well and got close to Haquila who is a strong form line. Down 4.5kg today to by far the bottom ewight, barrier 1 and has every chance ridden for luck.
Comments: Two stand outs here and i’m happy to be on both as I think they win more than 50% of the time here, which means the odds we are getting is value.
Strategy: Star Beauty on top from Gracious Prospect
Flemington Race 2
Esprit De Bullet: Just ignore last start at Moprhetville. Did run home well enough. Back in class here i’d suggest. Never placed at the track which is of concern… but never runs a bad race. The class runner.
Rescue Mission: First up run was fairly poor I’d suggest. Never placed at this track and only won 1 from 5 2nd up. Not the best form to go off but weighted ok.
Flash of Doubt: Weighted well today but never placed at track and last start run here was dead last down the straight. Hard to rate.
Lady of Harrods: Never placed from 4 tries at this track. Last start a horribley priced favourite for no reason. Down 2.5kg today up in class and I honestly can’t see it. The back down in distance is a throw at the stumps. Couldn’t touch this price!
Fab Fevola: Done nothing all prep. Never run down the straight. Weighted well but can’t see on recent form.
Finishing Card: Never placed from 3 attempts at track. Last win was late 2012 and last prep didn’t show much. Has won first up once.
My Survivor: Has won first up in the past. Last start at Caulfield in similar class was impressive enough. Not the worst at a price!
The Minsiter: I like this horse. Has shown enough the last few runs but with weights against Espirt De Bullet on recent runs, he isn’t in this particually well.
Comments: A total of 15 runs on this track from horses in the race for 0 placings. How the hell is this race worth $100k?!? Espirit De Bullet the class.
Strategy: Espirit De Bullet on top from My Survivor.
Flemington Race 3
Instrumentalist: Done nothing wrong all prep. Last five runs has either won or lost by less than 1.3L over 1800 to 2500m. 60kg certainly hurts, but the level of distance runners at this level in Melbourne is slightly less talented than those from Sydney if you ask me. Maps well.
Val Mondo: Drop back in distance probably due to not many 3000m races around (thanks Melbourne Racing for not giving us distance races sigh). Weighted ok today and will run well but I can’t see him winning.
Bono Vox: Super disappointing last start at MV when every chance. Not going to sack exactly on that run but hasn’t gone close this prep all things considered when best run was 2.3L off a win.
Suspended Gem: I like this horse. Went very close in the Tralagon Cup and probably should have won. Up 3kg today back in class (probably harder) and back up in distance. Can run well at the price.
Blazing Dragon: Continues to run well without winning. Certainly a frustrating horse to back. Previous form suggests will appreciate the xtra distance and the long straight. Key is to jump well and not miss the start from barrier 3 and get a positive position in midfield. Can win.
Handsome: Showed more improvement last start to be a surpise winner at MV. Poor race compared to this and has to find lengths again if you ask me.
King of Dudes: How well is he going? I’m not sure. He is certainly running well and I thought last start had a lot of merit when just had to do way too much. Barrier means will get every chance today.
McNulty: MEOW! He always runs well, there is no dismissing that fact… but he always finds one too good. But is today his day? He is SO well weighted against others from last start and also two back in this race. I think he can go close and the track should suit.
Pretty Adamant: Hard to see on previous runs.
Comments: Fairly open race. I have the 1, 4, 5, 7 and 9 as the key chances.. but there are smaller hopes outside of that also.
Strategy: Instrumentalist on top. McNulty worth a smaller bet also. I would suggest Instrumentalist is one of the best place bets of the day at the price.
Flemington Race 4
Pillar of Creation: Talented horse who returned in poor fashion firs tup. Never won at track, but last prep ran a close 0.3L 4th over 1200m here. Down in class today and up 4kg. Worth noting had never won first up previously but has never missed a place 2nd up.
Oltre Finito: Kav runner who was unlucky not to get the win last start at Bendigo in a VERY fast run race first up. Up 1kg today but comes into this well. Everything suggests he handles the track and can handle a strong final 400m sectional.
About Square: Big win here three runs back during last prep. Ignore the two runs after that as he was blocked for runs and then on unsuitable ground. Won 2 from 3 firs tup previously and rates well here.
Chow Meow: Not the worst run last start but disappointed as best bet. Never gone down the straight but form suggests could run this well enough. I just can’t have on top due to last start.
Are There Any: Priced to fly under the radar today. Never placed at track but last prep did run a close 4th to Angelic Lass. Up in weight today but back in class, solid enough runner who has won 2 from 2 at this distance.
Innocent Hero: Last start run was strong at MV. Previous runs were strong also. Progressive type moving up through the grades. Up to 1200m should suit. Big chance.
Spending: Won 1 from 2 first up. Previous form is strong with 3YO 2nd and 3YO-Listed 2nd. Been off a while and should be back to best. Oliver goes on which is a good sign.
Right to Roam: Has won first up and ran well previously down the straight but looks a little outclassed today.
Prince Hussar: Doesn’t look anywhere near good enough on form. Always runs a solid race but this is a huge stepup in class. Weighted ok.
Tooleybuc Kid: Does he need further? Progressed strongly last prep through the grades to run a close 2nd and 3rd at track over 1600 and 1700m. Prefer over further.
Salute to Jude: How good is the form around Lord of the Sky? Not soo good if you ask me. He ran on well but is he in this class? Did win a 2YO slowly run. A good place chance.
Brotherly Secret: Every chance and disappointed first up. Hard to have.
Comments: Bloody tough race with many progressive types in it. I’m really keen on Oltre Finito but I do believe Are There Any, Innocent Hero and Spending all have great chances.
Strategy: Oltre Finito to win. Smaller bet on Spending.
Flemington Race 5
Chile Express: Ran home well last start in a slowly run race at course and similar distance. Down in class and down in weight. Barrier makes it tricky but should position well enough.
Quick Shakes: Natural leader in the race, ran a close 2nd to Flashy Fella in the Ararat Cup but that form hasn’t worked out. Up against it at these weights today if you ask me.
Lord Pyrus: Not sure what to make of him. Back in class heavil today and still weighted ok. Went close in the Donald Cup but last two runs too bad to win this?
Sistine Demon: The horse on the up. Continues to run well and win this prep. Weighted well enough again today and extra step up in distance suits. Maps to take a sit or lead. Can do either and can win.
Defiant Angel: Back to her best last start? Showed us a lot positioned further forward. Oliver takes the ride down 2.5kg today. Maps well.
Gig: Fairly disappointing this prep when having every chance both tries to run better than 4th and 5th. Down in weight today again to 54kg which helps. She always runs well but just struggles to get there. Not sure the up in distance will make the difference but she is 2 from 3 at track.
Looklook: Look, he finished 2nd last and last his last two runs. Horse is in need of further distances than this on 2011 prep.
Quick Snitzel: Ran on well last start without threatening. Last win was at similar distance. Better 2nd up into prep but needs another run to get a win IMO.
Bashan: Good win two back and then ran on well last start at course and similar distance. Step back to 1600m suits, back in class and a good barrier 5 to lead if they want to or to take a better sit today.
Comments: The key will be the pace in the race. I will be taking a sit out of this race until I see the first 300m. If they fight for the lead then Chile Express is my big go, otherwise, I’m happy to take the shorter price for Sistine Demon (will have a small go on the other in either situation).
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 10
Strategy: Sistine Demon on top from Chile Express
Flemington Race 6
Road Trippin’: A month and a half between runs after some fairly disappointing form after the Barinsdale Cup win. But to be fair this is a big step back in class today also. Strange jockey choice. Maps perfectly.
Dash For Viz: Runs well without winning. Big step back in class today but most importantly off 55.5kg after claims. Flashed home late for 3rd last start in Adelaide. Reproduce that run and goes close.
Felidea: Talented horse who just couldn’t match it with the big boys last start. Back down in class and ran home well at course and distance two back. Fair break between runs but rates well.
Anlon: I get the feeling Don’t Get Excited would be favourite for this race and Anlon has done nothing wrong all prep. No surprise he is favourite and he has every chance.
The Wingman: Hard to see on previous runs but is weighted ok today.
Giresun: Very poor last start. Never won 2nd up or placed at track.
Dance for Cash: Continues to run well without winning in city class. I swear she lost three back to Royal Island at well, even on replay! Key to the race will be controlling the tempo but even so, not sure she is good enough to hold off all of these.
General Offer: Always jumps poorly. Doesn’t look good enough to me.
Mister John: Hard to know how good that win last start was in tassy. Ran well two runs in town here without threatning to win. Way back in class today. No surprise money has come for him.
Hirad: Strong enough win two back but then failed last start. Not sure he is in this grade just yet.
Mister Moneypenny: Jumps poorly and gets too far back. Will happen again today. Not in this class.
Free of Doubt: Good win first up this prep then unlucky to get run down by Daybreak and rider lost irons. Down 3.5kg today and up in class. Can win
Comments: 5 main chances here so wide open.
Quaddie Leg two: 3, 4, 5, 10, 13
Strategy: I think Anlon is a good place bet if you are liking him here but the win price is too short. My play here would be a win bet on Felidea and Free of Doubt.
Flemington Race 7
Extra Zero: Electric Fusion form is strong right now and he was able to lead from start to finish to just get run down and space the rest at Caulfield. Only won 1 from 18 at this track but barrier does suit again. Can run well.
Prizum: Not going well at all this prep. Can’t have.
Index Linked: Won two in a row then ran close 2nd, 4th and 2nd the next three. He really does chomp money this guy. Up to 2000m should suit and will have every chance on such a long straight. Only issue is if Bossy gets him stuck on the fence and also the pace out front.
Me Hungi: Disappointed last start but won the Donald Cup two back. Oliver takes the ride. Not my top pick here but not the worst.
Angelology: 1st, 2nd, 2nd 2nd reads well. Up to 2000m suits on all we can see and probably could have won last start if jumped well. Can run well. All about the pace out front.
Canonized: #unlucky not to win last start at Caulfield. Up in class but Marden is a good Sydney benchmark runner. Down 3.5kg today and gets to a long straight. BIG chance.
Leveraction: His run in the Cup last start was sound but just couldnt’ hold on. two back was an ignore and the previous run also was solid. Down 3kg compared to those runs, up 400m and much weaker class… hard to ignore at the price.
King’s A Star: Not going well enough.
Ali Vital: Was to be one of our best going around at MV last night but was scratched. Comes into this very well up 500m and down 5kg. Big chance.
Prakticality: Hard to see the progression.
Comments: Another wide open race.
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Ali Vital to win with a smaller bet on Leveraction. Saver Index Linked for good measure.
Flemington Race 8
Truffle: Way back in class today contesting this. Has run well previously down the straight here when 3rd to Vain Queen who is a potential Group 1 horse going forward. Was slowly away and blocked also that day. Only 58kg after claims today which helps alot. One of the ones to beat.
Royal Scandal: Good run first up at MV in an average race. Up in class and weighted poorly today which hurts. Can go forward or back on previous run.
Rubyone: hard to rate. Ran ok the last two runs from the back of the fields before spelling. Looks progressive. Can’t dismiss.
Sweet Agi: The two runs this prep have been impressive. Maps well from barrier as most the speed is outside of her. The key could be the straight.
Awasita: Impressive win alst start at MV start to finish. Up 1.5kg today hurts a little but can go well.
Young Girl: Ran ok two back and then disappointed last start. Not in this for mine.
Easy to look at: Ran on well last start without threatning. Needs a few more runs to get back to form.
Mrs Hadlee: Never won first up or at track. Weighted well enough off previous runs last prep but doesn’t measure up to win this on my ratings. Better over further.
Excell Shoes: Poor form at end of last prep. Showed something last prep but not in this.
Zeffiretta: Maiden only winner and it wasn’t that impressive.
Comments: Straight race to end the day? Tough for the get out stakes!
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7
Strategy: Truffles is a horse I have a big opinion of. Happy to be backing here while savering Awasita.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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