Welcome to The Profits form guide for Geelong Cup Day on Wednesday 23 October 2013. Well well well. How was the Caulfield Cup? Fawkner! Just a huge run and win. That form line will work out even better going through this Spring. We were then shocked (not really considering the market on Monday) with AJ being scratched for the Cox Plate. Time to re-do my form fully. Hopefully It will all be up Wednesday night for just the plate. Geelong will be wet wet wet today and there are a few that stand out, but lower confidence than normal. As always, I hope your form stacks up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
*Update* Track has come up heavy and pretty much all of our best bets have been scratched. Even lower confidence on the card today
Best Bet
Geelong Race 2 McNulty
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Geelong Race 1
Rock Musician: Won very well on slow three back over in Adelaide in harder company. After claim is weighted well today and goes best on wet going. The speed looks to be on out front and looks suited.
She Goes To Rio: Maps to go back to the front today down in class. Also gets a wet track which suits. Went very close two back and this distance suits.
Severn Road: Never won on slow or heavy and hasn’t gone close the last 3 runs.
Beltonic: Ran on VERY well behind Molto Bene last start. Has been running well down in Geelong all prep and is back from Listed company. Only issue is that he really doesn’t have any form on wet… but if you consider the pace on our front, may be worth a risk.
Adjuster: Very disappointing run last start. Goes well on slow and heavy and is one of the chances.
Catagious: Continues to run well but doesn’t have good wet form.
Name The Day: Disappointing last start. Form looks solid enough. Down in class and down 4kg today.
Paige’s Boy: 0.5L behind Rhythm To Spare three back. Hasn’t looked as good the first two runs this prep.
Comments: Tough race to start the day with most runners having a chance. Speed will be on so you want to be on the ones out the back.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: She goes to Rio from Beltonic.
Geelong Race 2
Kim Command: All four runs this prep have been solid. Last start found a good track but still ran well. Won last two runs on slow and went close on heavy. Weighted well enough and maps well.
Brayroan: Runs have been solid enough up in Sydney without impressing. Wet track should suit. Don’t dismiss.
Mr Jazz: Poorly weighted today off two back run. Can’t have on that.
McNulty: Weighted well today after going close last start. Unknown on track condition really on decent form but only run on slow was ok.
Maconsilia: Went close last start in a strong country race and has some solid enough form in 3YO class. Went close previous race on slow. Can do so again.
Comments: Up in distance today, hard to go past McNulty.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: McNulty to win
Geelong Race 3
Gamblin’ Guru: Gone close in similar class the last few runs but just hasn’t been able to win. Has quite a few solid runners in his form lines. Never placed on anything but good though (still ran on well on slow)
Great Esteem: Been running in races out of his league recently but previous runs were ‘ok’ without being great. Hard to see.
Gravitational: Maiden only winner who has shown nothing since.
Throw The King: Only just won a maiden.
Tupac Amaru: Ran well enough on heavy two back in maiden but didn’t beat much. Last start ran ok and can improve.
Dark Thunder: Only won a maiden.
Comments: Gamblin’ Guru is the stand out.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Gamblin’ Guru to win.
Geelong Race 4
The favourite is hard to go past here but at the price I couldn’t launch in with any confidence. Only a maiden winner from over in France then won an average race first up here. Nothing here for me.
Geelong Race 5
Nothing standing out here even after analysis.
Geelong Race 6
Dash For Viz: Ran well enough first up when slowly away and blocked for runs. Last win was on Good but does go well enough on wet tracks.
Bocuse: Not going well enough on first two runs this prep. Needs to find much more today.
LuckyI’MBareFoot: Last prep ran well enough and best form has been seen on the wet tracks. Runs ok first up.
Morant: Very disappointing end to last prep. Harder level of race today and best is on good tracks.
Cavallo Nero: Continues to run well enough this and goes well on wet tracks. Blowout chance.
Scelto: Ran ok first up but much harder here.
Comments: Race has been murdered by scratchings. Cavallo gets every chance today
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Cavallo Nero to win
Geelong Race 7
Tanby: Never run well on slow and hasn’t shown anything this prep.
Forgotten Voice: Only run on slow was in a Hurdle and ran 4th by 14L. Previous to that all form is really on Good tracks. Beat home Lost In The Moment and previous to that Sheikhzaydr which is solid enough form. If handles the ground then most likely wins.
Ibicenco: Hasn’t handled wet tracks and not sure that will change today. Good horse but hard to have.
Moudre: Ran very well first up but after that just hasn’t shown much. Hard to have.
Brigantin: Three runs this prep rate poorly.
Polish Knight: Since winning the big one in 2012 hasn’t measured up. Hasn’t been seen on a wet track in a long time. Don’t fully dismiss.
Crafty Cruiser: Ran on very well last start at Flemington and handles wet tracks. Big chance at best.
Verdant: Few runs this prep solid but didn’t show anything last start. Hard to have on last start.
Goldoni: Not going well enough for this today.
Warwarick: Outclassed.
Comments: Hard to back Forgotten Voice on a heavy track now.
Confidence: 65%
Strategy: Backing of Crafty Cruiser E/W or to win and saver Forgotten.
Geelong Race 8
TOUGH race. Several key changes here. Vibrant Rouge has strong enough form but will need the ground running on. Same with Lady Antebellum today. My pick in this race was scratched so nothing appeals.
Geelong Race 8
Thorn Star is really the only horse in this race I know. Is a much better horse than this class… but has a query on wet tracks. Backable on slow.. not heavy. E/W but i’m not playing here.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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