Welcome to The Profits Wednesday racing form for one race at Grafton and one at Bendigo. Saturday went poorly overall with our SA Best Bet helping us get close to breaking even in the end. The racing today has a lot to be desired but we are blessed with a strong race over at Grafton while the one race does stick out at Bendigo. I hope you form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Grafton Race 7
Howmuchdoyouloveme: Class runner who returned in sensational form two runs back winning very very very well. Last start on a surface that really isn’t his best still got there at the line leading it up in a reasonable time. May pass over Adebisi today but I’d question that happening. On Dead surface off last two starts has every right to be winning this today.
Adebisi: Some quality wins last prep before getting injured. Wons well first up but probably a better horse on Good than dead IMO. Weighted fairly today it seems but first up from an injury? Hard to have on top.
River Lad: The main threat on last starts run, River Lad speed maps poorly today. I have River Lad getting stuck 7-8 back and could even find himself on the rail. I would suggest he needs to improve again to win this.
Youthful Jack: Very poor first up record but has a very good record in this class of race and goes well enough at distance. Weighted fairly well but can be win this? I doubt it.
Border Rebel: Down 7.5kg today which certainly is in favour of the horse. Back onto a Dead ground. Meets River Lad actually 1.5kg better off for a nose behind the horse in April.. since hten went close 2nd in a Group 2 and 3rd in Listed behind Satin shoes before failing last start. Speedmaps VERY WELL. Looks over the odds today.
Gundy Son: Never far from winning this horse. Weighted better today but speedmaps poorly today and will be very wide around the turn. Will be coming late but suspect doesn’t have the will.
Pentasia: Will struggle to get in from outside barrier and could be caught wide. On last start run won’t be winning this but previous three runs would be going close.
Celtic Dancer: Not going well enough to suggest a win here today. Does map well though.
War Ends: Up in class big time today and simply won’t measure up. Also maps poorly and will struggle to get out the front due to gate speed.
Big BOnanza: Huge unders on the fixed odds. Just expect the horse to keep drifting. Never placed in this class and two back run didn’t show me much.
Soledad: Runs ok first up and Snowden/McEvoy have a great record on horses firs tup. Never won on dead or good.
Liesele: Ran well enough two back but last start was disappointing. Not sure will measure up here. Maps poorly.
Skating On Ice: Good horse down in the grades but this is a step beyond.
Ideal Position: Not going well enough to win this.
Private Express: Won’t be measuring up to this class.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Very happy to back Howmuchdoyouloveme to win here with a smaller sized bet on Border Rebel.
Bendigo Race 5
Not going into much detail about all of the runners here. This is a pretty poor race, but there is a horse who absolutely stands out. Nolen rides for Moody first up this prep after 3 months off on Skawboard Pressure. WOn well in maiden company first up last prep and then ran strong 2nds the next two runs. The last run was 0.4L 2nd in harder company behind Road Trippin who since won two races including a handicap at Caulfield beating home a handy horse in Infinite Energy. Runs well from the back or front and hopefully they slot in well.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Backing to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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