Welcome to The Profits form guide for Melbourne Cup day at Flemington on Tuesday 5 November 2013. The day that holds the race that stops a nation is generally considered as one of the hardest race days all year to have a winning result. This is certainly reflected by the large fields and our lower than normal confidence on many races. It is safe to say, the Melbourne Cup is wide open this year, but we think we have picked three top chances in the race and will be backing them in ourselves. Enjoy your day and I hope your form matches up with ours! Good luck and happy punting.
Flemington Race 5 Selectify
Flemington Race 10 Swipeline
Flemington Race 3 Fabriano
Lay of the Day
Flemington Race Race 8 Sheer Talent to place
Leg One: 5, 6, 8, 10, 17, 18, 21
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5
Leg Three: 3, 4, 15, 18, 24
Leg Four: 4, 8, 14, 15
A quick summary of all the key promotion on offer around the bookies.
MONEY BACK if your runner finishes 2nd or 3rd in ANY race on 8 race days throughout the Spring Carnival (maximum $100). *Important* You CAN bet more than one horse per race and they will refund more than one horse if you run 2nd and 3rd.
50% Melbourne Cup Trifecta Boost (maximum bonus of $250)
Money Back if you run 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Melbourne Cup ($25 max) on their Tote Extra (Best of 5) product.
Double Fixed Odds on the Melbourne Cup (maximum $50 bet). At time of posting Fiorente is $7 enhanced to $14, Voleuse De Coeurs is $17 enhanced to $34, Fawkner is $15 enhanced to $30, Brown Panther is $20 enhanced to $40 and Dandino is $13 enhanced to $26.
Double Fixed Odds on the Melbourne Cup. (maximum $50 bet).
Bet needs to be placed between 12-1pm Worth noting that any money won in this race has T&C associated with it which requires a turn over now.
Money Back if your first win bet on the Melbourne Cup doesn’t win, but runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Maximum refund of $100.
Paying out the Bookies Best Price on the Melbourne Cup then adding 10% to it.
Paying 5 places on your first ‘place’ bet on the Melbourne Cup. Max bet $100.
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
I tried to have a go at the form for this race twice and there just isn’t enough Dam information or trial information available to actually give you a tip, or extensive thoughts. So please, leave the race alone unless you have some really good inside info!
Flemington Race 2
Goldslick: Has a very unlucky prep. All three runs this prep has either been blocked for a run or been checked massively in running. Top weight in this less than classy field, but loves the track and is going well enough. Barrier no issue.
Lady Dynamo: Has been running well over in Adelaide without winning the last 10 runs with 6 seconds. A second to Pelicano last start when blocked for a run from dead last and then three back 1.8L behind Gris Caro, those two runs are huge form lines coming into this. As long as the speed is on, she looks a massive chance today.
Classy Chloe: Finished behind Lady Dynamo two back when positioned out the back of the field. Will be more forward today but with the lack of solid form and DT on board, I can’t be around her (used to be one of my fav horses as well).
Twilighting: Somewhat disappointing last start at Caulfield but meets Goldslick much better at the weights today. Maps to get a perfect position today but has never placed from 0 goes at track.
Rememba Howe: Very disappointing run last start. Wants it more wet on previous form.
Endless Shadow: Equal weight today after a 3rd to On Face Value last start in Adelaide. Is 1/1 from placing at this track in this class over shorter distance from last prep. Needs to improve a few lengths today but has hopes.
Notice Received: Weighted to win today down 2kg. You just have to ignore last start and look to the previous start in lesser class at Caulfield. Also look at the 1.8L 6th here last prep over 1700m behind a good horse in Fulgar. Will appreciate the early dead track at Flemington and from barrier 8 maps very well.
Minnie Downs: Lost a plate and lame after race last start. Just wipe that run off her record and look to previous form. Goes well at this track and is weighted very well. Will get far back in the run but is one of the best in the race.
Blazing Dragon: ‘Strong’ horse who ran well last two tries in MUCH easier company up in Sydney. Down 2kg, down to Melbourne and up in distance which is all positive… but is she good enough? Hard to see her measuring up.
Let’s Be A Star: Just not going well enough the last three runs to measure up in this class today.
Sweet Talkin Woman: Won just 1 of last 8 this prep and didn’t go very well at all last start after winning two back when back down in distance. Back up in distance today should help, but up to a higher level of class. Will find it hard to beat a few home.
Sinhala: Hasn’t measured up all prep apart from on Heavy track. No thanks.
Wistful: Progressive type who broke her maiden this prep and has progressed to running very well at Randwick last start. Up in class again today but Snowden seems to think enough of her to come down for this. Keep an eye on.
Nadhima: An eye-catcher on Heavy last start behind Lady Antebellum. Big chance if the speed is on.
Crimson Lady: Going well enough this prep but can’t see her turning the tables on Notice Received.
Good Thinking: Two back run was solid enough and four back beat home a horse who won on Friday night… but is she good enough for this? Hard to see outsprinting a few here.
Comments: Top five numbers in this race in no order 2, 7, 8, 13, 14.
Strategy: Notice Received on top from Lady Dynamo and Minnie Downs.
Flemington Race 3
Opinion: Missed the start and was forced to go further back than intended. Ran on very well all things considered. Will be suited by the long Flemington straight. Does still need to improve.
Crafty Cruiser: Last two runs have been ok without impressing. Two back run was blocked a few times that cost him. Is a quality horse and can’t be ignored in this class of race… but the barrier certainly doesn’t help!
Caravan Rolls On: Suited by a Good track and will get that today… so knock that previous run off his record and he comes into this very well. Most importantly, gains 2.5kg on Opinion today from last meeting over in UK. Can go close.
Planet Purple: Good enough barrier today to get a sit midish field which will help. Weighted very well back down in class today and hasn’t seen this level of class for a long time. Suited by a long straight and if produces last start run, will be hard to beat.
Raeburn: Very disappointing run first up in Melbourne at MV. Hard to have off that run.
Thubiaan: Not going well enough on last three runs and can’t jump on today.
Junoob: Another runner over from the UK. Ran well first up over 2000m then disappointed a little second up before going close last start. Down 5kg today and up in class. Meets Mujadale much better at weights.
Raki: Good start to finish win last start… but what did he beat? Rowland isn’t exactly a group or listed company horse. Needs to find another gear today and barrier hurts big time.
Mujadale: Every chance last start from barrier and just not good enough. Found out in better races. Doesn’t come in weighted very well.
Trajet: Solid enough runner who won well last start in similar class over a lesser distance. Weighted well enough again today and barrier suits.
Why Not: Not going well enough this prep and may need it a little more wet.
Fabriano: Hasn’t had a spell for a LONG time.. but why should he when he is going so well? Should have won two back and then last start just way too wide at MV. Down in class and off 54kg.. comes into this VERY well. Maps to sit a little further forward today and will be suited by the track condition. Everything is in his favour, as long as doesn’t get blocked today, will be vry hard to beat. Massive overs.
Caroun: Good run last start, but is he going well enough when you consider the 3L 8th to Wujadale last start? Will fit closer to the front from barrier 5 today but doesn’t look progressive enough.
North Lodge: Rider lost whip and didn’t lead the horse unlike the previous ride and win. Will be taking a run back in the field today from barrier 15. Hard to see him improving enough again today.
Rowland: Not good enough and not well at weights to beat those who beat him the last 3 runs.
Brayroan: Good win on heavy two back but last start back on a better track wasn’t able to get the win. The run was solid enough and I wouldn’t be counting him out.
Sacred Dream: Can’t see her beating a few of these home and has never won on a Good track previously.
Like a Carousel: Non-winner and this is a massive jump.
Comments: Do you go with the UK form or is there a progressive type who maps well enough here today? Have it down to 6 in no particular order 1, 2, 3, 10, 12, 17
Strategy: Fabriano ticks all the boxes for me and is massive overs (3 units to place 1 unit to win). Caravan Rolls On is a horse I have a big opinion of and runs very well first up and loves Good tracks so gets a bet also.
Flemington Race 4
Arinosa: You have to simply ignore her last start run at Moonee Valley and rate off the previous run at Randwick. She is suited to a long straight track and is back in a class she dominates. Will have to come from a LONG way back… but she has the class.
Aerobatics: Showed significant improvement last start winning at Caulfield. Weighted well enough today but needs a bit of luck from barrier 16 to slot in well. Lucky there isn’t much earl speed and should be able to get a nice spot.
Koonoomoo: Change of tactics last start and ran a VERY strong 1400m 2nd to Red Tracer who has won since on Saturday. Weighted well enough again today and wouldn’t surprise reversing her form lines around Aerobatics. Big chance due to mapped position.
She’s Clean: Meets Arinosa 1.5kg better off today after failing last start. Just ignore that run and rate on two back run. Major issue is her barrier today. What tactics will they use?
Golden Penny: Has always been a very solid horse and has come on this prep with two wins in WFA-LR class over in Adelaide. Has won at this track previous and is flying. Big chance.
Vibrant Rouge: Seems to have found her best form this returning very well this prep. Can sit back or middle of the field and you would expect they will try and get to the middle today. Never won on 1400m is an issue but form does suggest has been trained on for 1400m this prep. Has won here before.
Assertive Eagle: Blocked for runs last start and some may say was very unlucky not to win. May push further forward today and be very competitive.
Spitfire Lady: Last two runs have been very solid but are they good enough for her to win here? Maps well.
Impetuous:Shown nothing last two runs. Hard to have.
Rose Pattern: Very disappointing run last start. May just have to ignore. Last two runs were solid. Will be out the front. Hasn’t won for a long time.
Plucky Belle: Very strong run first up off a hot tempo behind a horse I rate highly. Will be out the back. Is she better than Arinosa?
Spot on Maggie: Not going well enough.
Catered: Not going well enough this prep.
Winta Chiller: A good horse who just doesn’t seem to get the wins. Always goes well and close.
Balaclava Lady: Not going well this prep.
Potiche: This is a big step up in class. Can run well but can’t see the win.
Comments: Talk about an open race. Doing the form for the top 9 runners, I can see all of them going very well, then there are more. Tough race!
Strategy: Golden Penny on Top from Koonoomoo and Plucky Belle.
Flemington Race 5
Kuroshio: 1/1 at the track down the straight. Front runner who is at the top of the weights. Is he carrying too much? One thing for sure, this is a massive step back in class and he is the one to beat.
Iconic: Ran on well enough last start behind Lion of Belfort who is a strong formline horse this prep. Could jump better today and sit handy. Could run well.
Churchill Dancer: Progressive type who steps back to 1200m today. Hard to see the win.
Ruud Awakening: Weaker class today but doesn’t look good enough for this.
Anatina: Won at course and distance two runs back in a fairly strong tempo race. Then ran on well behind Missy Longstockings last start. Massive issue is no front runners on her side of the track.
Bold Eavey: Ran to price last start. Hard to have.
Diamond Oasis: Good run 3rd two back when lost a plate and ran 3rd to Lion of Belfort. Never missed a place at this distance. Never won in class.
Bernabeu: Maiden only winner but two back ran a very nice fast race. Has ability.
Suit: 0.3L 2nd to Eurozone in maiden first up and then won a heavy 2nd up. No non-wet track form so hard to rate here.
Pistolier: 2nd to Eclair Big Bang two back. Run down again last start. Weighted poorly.
Selectify: Went very close last start at Moonee Valley. Finished next to Notlistenintome. A big chance.
Senor Juez: Not going well enough to win this.
Baker Boy: Not good enough.
Excellent Flight: Won a slowly run maiden first up. Can’t have for me but win wouldn’t shock too much.
Calcatta: Can’t see her passing Anatina on last start run.
Elle Excite: Not up to this class.
Comments: Four runners stand out in 1, 2, 5 and 12
Strategy: Selectify on top from Kuroshio.
Flemington Race 6
Bulbula: Won’t be sitting back today. Ran a close 2nd to May’s Dream three back and then two back was 3rd behind Missy Longstocking. Too far back last start at the Valley. Can run well.
Bring A Ring:Two solid runs this prep but can’t see the improvement in this!
Moderate: Progressed well this prep but last start had the race set up off a hot tempo. Down 5.5kg today does certainly give her a big chance today but is she this good? Rock bottom price.
Mezeray Miss: Continues to run well without winning this prep. Up to 1400m could suit.
Politeness: 3-wide the whole race last start. Just ignore that run and form looks very solid. New jockey goes on and from barrier 5 should slot in 1 out 1 back hopefully. Weighted to win.
Patricia Dawn: Not going well enough on previous form.
Roop All: Ran 2nd to our horse firs tup and then ran well enough next start. Can run well again but isn’t good enough to win.
Judicial Rock: Blocked for runs and finished off well last start. Will appreciate the straight. Could run them over if produces an improved run.
Comments: Only a few chances in this one. Happy to take on the favourite today.
Strategy: Politeness on top from Bulbula.
Flemington Race 7
Melbourne Cup 2013
1. Dunaden 58.5kg – Barrier 1
2011 winner of this race in a photo with Red Cadeaux. Came back for another try last year and took out the Caulfield Cup which was ran off a hot tempo and in this race last year copped a few checks in the run and ran on ok without doing too much at top weight of 59kg. Since then ran 5th in the Hong Kong Vase, 4th in Meydan, 3rd in Longchamp, 2nd at Epsom, 2nd in Saint-cloud and then 8th last start in Longchamp. Looking at the form, you just discount the previous two runs on slow (even though the 2nd to Novellist is a solid form race). His 2nd behind St Nicholas Abbey and infront of Joshua tree in the Coronation Cup is solid enough form. Many are suggesting other internationals have strong hopes from beating home Joshua Tree this prep. Barrier 1 isn’t the best when you consider he will be wanting to go back, but it could mean they can push a little hard early to sit closer to midfield than the rear. He never runs a bad race and is a chance once again.
2. Green Moon 57.5kg – Barrier 10
Won the race last year after a fairly disappointing, but still bold run in the Cox Plate off 59kg which he just doesn’t handle. His form that prep had been a very solid 5th in the Memsie, 2nd by a nose in the Feehan, 3-wide most the way win in the Turnbull and then the Cox Plate fail before winning with class. He had a spell for 109 days and ran 4th in the Futurity and 4th in the Australian Cup (won by Super Cool). Then this prep he ran 5th in the Memsie, 9th in the Underwood and 9th in the Cox Plate where he was ‘ok’. Hasn’t won since this race last year which is a massive concern, but this is his main event. I wouldn’t fully discount him, but he certainly isn’t going as well this prep as he was last year. Barrier suits well and gives options.
3. Red Cadeaux 56.5kg – Barrier 23
A whisker 2nd to Dunaden in 2011 and then last year ran on well enough 8th. Went onto win the Hong Kong Vase, run 2nd in the World Cup in Dubai and then hasn’t won since. So, last win was December 2012! Has run some ‘solid’ races since with a 2nd to Royal Empire in the Geoffrey Freer but was beaten a full 11 lengths last start in the St Leger by Voleuse De Coerurs. Very poor barrier as well. Doesn’t look the goods this year on current form.
4. Sea Moon 56.5kg – Barrier 7
Ran 3rd in the 2011 St Leger to Masked Marvel and Brown Panther. In 2012 beat Dandino in the Tapster, Dunaden and Red Cadeaux in the Hardwicke and then hasn’t won since. Had close to a 300 day break between runs before resuming in the Makybe Diva and finding nothing. Next start in the Underwood was too far back but was an unlucky protest 2nd to Araldo in the Bart Cummings. Won the Herbert Power next start, but what did he beat home? Oasis Bloom was nominated for this but is no Melbourne Cup Horse. Has everything to prove today. Barrier gives them the option to push further forward like they did last start, but you would suggest they sit midfield. Continues to improve on runs but has to find several more lengths today to win at the weights.
5. Brown Panther 55kg – Barrier 6
Won two from three runs this prep. The first was over 2400m in the Castle Stakes by 3.5L but didn’t really ‘beat much’. Next start in the Goodwood Cup was ridden out the front and the leader around the final turn pushed the leaders a good 3-4 lengths ahead of the field behind them which proved tactically too hard to be run down. Brown Panther sat behind the leader on the straight until about the final 400m when got out and just extended to win by 3.5L off 61kg. Alzeemah was 2nd and Mount Athos was running on but run ended at the 200m mark. I think the tactics won it, not the pure ability of the horse.. but his final 100m was still very strong as well. In a race with not many natural front field runners, Brown Panther will be going forward from barrier 6 and will get the perfect position in running. Is a massive chance.
6. Fiorente 55kg – Barrier 5
Ran 2nd to Jet Away in 2012 at Goodwood and then 6th behind Sea Moon, Dunaden and Red Cad in the Hardwicke before beating the Goldsmiths beating Joshua tree and Red Cad. Failed to run well enough in the Prix Foy. 51 Days off and then flew over for the Melbourne Cup and flew home for 2nd after settling 8th in running. Ran 5 times since over here with a very strong 3rd behing All Too hard in the All Aged, strong enough 6th first up in the Memsie, win in the Feehan not beating much and then ran home very well in the Turnbull. Pushed forward last start in the Cox Plate after sitting 3-wide for a long time and then slotting in. Down to 55kg today which seems very fair, but most importantly, barrier 5. Damien Oliver gets the ride which is a BIG bonus. Should have no excuses today.
7. Foreteller 55kg – Barrier 15
Had my eye on this horse all Spring with a view that he would run in the Melbourne Cup. $300s was available a month ago and you are getting 10X less today. His runs early in the year were eye-catching. None more so than the Ranvet where he beat Fiveandahalfstar off 59kg. He didn’t progress as much as expected after that with 2nds in the Hollindale and Doomben Cup. This prep he ran on very well in the Warwick Stakes first up before winning the Makybe Diva out-staying Puissance De Lune after tracking him into the race off equal weights. Two runs back in the Caulfield Stakes he ran on very well behind Atlantic Jewel (even though he was 4L off) and backed up that strong form in the Cox Plate flashing late to lose by 1.2L. Down to 55kg today which he hasn’t seen in a long time. The lower weight could be the key. Barrier 15 doesn’t hurt too much as you can expect him to fall to the back. Newitt may even jump away slowly on purpose to shoot over to the fence so that he isn’t stuck directly last. Have to come from a long way back but should be good enough.
8. Dandino 54.5kg – Barrier 4
International runner who never puts in a bad race. Since his 2nd to My Quest For Peace in the Glorious Stakes in 2012, he went onto win the September, run 2nd to Joshua tree in the Interational, 7th to Red Cad in the Hong Kong Vase, 2nd to Universal in the Jockey club, 2nd to Thomas Chippendale in the Hardwicke and then won the US St Leger. Put in an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup from the back. Comes into the race actually better weighted. Barrier 4 today is perfect and you would expect they may attempt to sit mid-field if possible. Huge chance.
9. Ethiopia 54.5kg – Barrier 14
Ran last in this race last year (lame in hind leg). Ran 5th in the Makybe Diva and then next few runs hasn’t really shown anything. Last start sat back in the Lexus and only ran on fairly. Not very well weighted today and doesn’t look a chance to win at all.
10. Fawkner 54.5kg – Barrier 8
Very progressive type over his last two preps. Last prep won the Sofitel, Headquarters, TAB.com.au at Flemington and then a nose second to Happy Trails in the Emirates. Geez that looks a strong result now doesn’t it? Well it worked out this year. Had a 130 day spell and ran 3rd to Black Caviar in the William Reid over 1200m. 169 day spell again and then resumed in the Tramway over 1400m which was run at a crazy speed and he ran on well. Next start in the George Main sat more forward and boxed on ok but didn’t impress to be honest. The Turnbull was a different story. His sectionals were very very very strong and was somewhat unlucky to be passed by Happy Trails and nosed out by PDL for 2nd. That run was one of the main reasons he was our top pick in the Caulfield Cup. The progression was there and he was set to peak. He got a dream ride and you know what happened, he won the Caulfield Cup very well from a position in run slightly further back than expected. Down 0.5kg today and up to 3200m. He ran out the 2400m fine so the 3200m will be no issue. There isn’t as much early speed in this race as the Caulfield Cup and the barrier 8 is perfect. He speedmaps REALLY well today and as long as gets clear running is EVERY chance to run the cups double.
11. Mourayan 54.5kg – Barrier 19
The longest odds runner in the race. Last prep ran 4th in the Chairmans and then won the Sydney Cup over 3200m beating some only fair horses home. This prep ran 7th, 8th and then 7th in the Mackinnon. Not good enough for this.
12. Seville 54.5kg – Barrier 9
Last prep ran close 5th in the Naturalism and then 2nd to Green Moon in the Turnbull before getting injured and ending what looked a promising spring. 280ish days off and then returned with three very average runs in the Memsie, Feehan and Naturalism positioning out the back in the first two and then midfield in the next. Two back in The Metrop was peaking and sat 4th in running and snuck a win over Julienas and Sneak a Peek. Both these two horses have disappointed heavily since. Ran in the Cox Plate and finished 7th. Better suited over further it seems but is he good enough to win this? I’d suggest poorly weighted against others here today. Can position forward.
13. Super Cool 54.5kg – Barrier 13
Two preps back won the MV Vase beating It’s a Dundeel and then ran a close 2nd in the Vic Derby behind Fiveandahalfstar. Last prep ran a solid 3rd in the Autumn Stakes, then got a win over Fiveandahalfstar in the Autumn Classic before winning the Australian Cup. Returned well this prep running 3rd in the Memsie and 4th in the Feehan but since has disappointed. The run in the Turnbull was very poor and then was simply not good enough in the Caulfield Stakes and completely out-staged by Foreteller as well. Last start was game enough out the front in the Cox Plate off 58kg but lacked any sprint. Could be looking for the extra distance and a sit instead of leading.. but is he good enough to not find a few too good? I don’t think so.
14. Masked Marvel 54kg – Barrier 2
Very strong form back in 2011 but since then hasn’t actually shown much to speak of. Sure, there was a 3rd behind Red Cad and St Nic Abbey last year, but followed that up by 9th, 4th and 8th. Came to Australia and failed first up, ran on ok 2nd up to Moriarty and then 3rd up had every chance and just couldn’t beat Masked Marvel. Run in the Cox Plate was poor at best. Will certainly appreciate the extra distance and has been set to win this race, but is he going well enough to win? I took some of the early $75s knowing he was automatically into the race, but I’m even thinking of laying these off at the $36 odds. His true price is closer to what I got and even through drew barrier 2, they will sit back I don’t give him much hope of being able to outsprint every runner in this race.
15. Mount Athos 54kg – Barrier 22
Flashed home last year in this race to finish 5th after getting into trouble in running before the turn. After that win went to Tokyo and failed heavily. Spelled and then first up won a very poorly rated race the Ormonde beating Mad Moose by 9 lengths. Went onto the Hardwicke where he had every chance and just wasn’t going well enough (beaten 2.8L by Dandino that day). Went around again in the Goodwood Cup and could only manage 8th. Last start ran a close 2nd to Harris Tweet in the March Stakes. Hasn’t run since (71 days off) but has continued to train on. He hasn’t won any of his last 3 runs coming into this. Compare that to last year when he had won his previous 3 races including a win over Brown Panther… suggests he isn’t as good as he was last year. Adding to the troubles, they drew barrier 22 which means they will struggle to get a solid enough mid-field position and could get caught 3-wide. A lesser chance for mine and the price is heavily unders.
16. Royal Empire 54kg – Barrier 11
Spent last prep over in Meydan where won a race and ran 2nd in two others. Better results were on dirt rather than turf. Shipped over to UK and Won a fairly easy 2000m race first up and then beat home Red Cad and Lost in the moment 2nd up over 2700m. Ran 2nd in final two runs of this prep by 0.2L and 2.5L over 2400m at Kempton and Ascot. The form lines are solid enough, but were those wins impressive enough to beat this star studded line-up off 54kg? The fact the horse has never run 3200m is a big issue considering how many race options there are for distance over in the UK. Looks a good horse but not winner material.
17. Voleuse De Coeurs 54kg – Barrier 21
I can’t talk highly enough about her win in the Irish St Leger. The race was run slowly than her last start 2nd to Royal Diamond in the St Leger Trial and she positioned on the race worse than midfield. At about the 1000m mark, horses started to make their runs and she came off the rail. They don’t let the horses fully go until about the 600m mark though over there with whipping etc. From the 800 to 600 she swallow them all up and sprinted clear passing the 400m mark where she just kept extending and won by 7 lengths pulled up in the final 50m. She beat home Azheemah & Saddler’s Rock who are both quality horses and great form lines, but more importantly, Red Cadaeux was about 11 lengths back with Royal Diamond. She was sold for close to 2 million and shipped over here for the cup. A first up runner is never the best thing in the Melbourne Cup and the barrier 21 certainly makes it interesting.. but she is going back anyway and will settle in the back QTR of the field. On raw ability from last run, she is the ‘form’ horse in the race. That run was 50 days ago.
18. Hawkspur 53.5kg – Barrier 18
Once Melbourne Cup favourite, Hawkspur came crashing back down to reality running 5th in the Turnbull in an eye-catching run where he didn’t have much luck and then backing it up from the back in the Caulfield Cup last start. Barrier 18 is a massive disadvantage today and the trainer had advised that they will attempt to ride Hawkspur in a more forward manner (top 6) to give him every chance. This also means there is every chance he will get caught three-wide. I’m not a fan of such a drastic tactic change in a big race from an outside barrier, but off 53.5kg, he could be good enough with a bit of luck. I wrote it in the Caulfield Cup preview, he hasn’t beaten anything and has everything to still prove.
19. Simenon 53.5kg – Barrier 12
A distance runner, his best runs have come at distances above 3000m. In 2012 he took out the 4350m Queen Alexandra from Shahwardi. They even gave him a go at hurdling that year but didn’t have much success. Back to running in 2013 where he ran 4th in the Chester Cup over 3700m and a close 2nd to Estimate in the Gold Cup at Ascot. Next start when back down to 3300m in the Lonsdale Cup and was beaten 0.2L by Ahzeemah who is one of the horses to base form off of in the UK. First up was very brave running on well in the Herbert Power but is certainly wanting further. Barrier 12 will see him position very well in running a little further back than midfield. Stays on for days.
20. Ibicenco 53kg – Barrier 17
Lucky to get a run today after what many call a bit of a stuff up by the handicapper. Handed a 1kg penalty for winning a Heavy track Geelong Cup which rated to be one of the worst in the last decade. Last year won the Sandown Cup over 3200m beating Reuben Percival and Unusual Suspect. Last prep didn’t finish better than 4th while won first up this prep over 1700m beating Mr O’Ceirin and Pakal. Ran on ok next start and was a forgive run in The Metrop. Just not up to this class of race, but could surprise and run home for a top 10 finish.. but from barrier 17, limited tactic options. Can’t see this horse winning, or placing.
21. Verema 53kg – Barrier 3
Last start won the Kergorlay beating Joshua Tree and Dance Moves by 0.5L on a Slow track. This is the race Jukebox Jury won before coming here in 2011 and failed. Want to know why? We don’t run races like they do in France. They let horses lead with no issues. They don’t push pace and they have different tempos. Verema’s run did certainly have merit and received a perfect ride with cover until the final 400m when others were facing the breeze into the straight and down it. The previous win was in the Prix De Nieuil beating only a fair field of runners while previous form was 3rd at Meydan in the Dubai Gold Cup to Cav Man & Ahzeemah, 2nd to Last train in the Prix Barbeville and 5th in the Prix Vigier. Will be suited by the ground and from barrier 3 will position handy enough in midfield. The key is the 53kg for this runner. Give her 56kg and I would give her minimal chance, but from the draw and with such a low weight, she does have higher claims than a few of the other international runners.
22. Dear Demi 51kg – Barrier 16
Chris Munce gets the ride again after going close to running down Side Glance in a slowly run Mackinnon last start. Previous run went very close ridden for luck in the Caulfield Cup off 53kg. Previous two runs were solid also in the Turnbull and 0.85L off Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood. Will be better for the extra distance today and off 51kg, you know she is weighted well enough to go close. Barrier 16 was an unlucky draw. If she drew barrier 1-6 then you could really see her getting midfield and being ridden for luck. Instead, tactics are limited a fair bit today. Suggest she goes back and gets ridden for luck again. Need all of it.
23. Tres Blue 51kg – Barrier 20
Not the most talented horse in the race, but when you have 51kg, you don’t have to be. Progressive type who has been running in strong fields all his life. Before heading over to Australia he had 7 runs in total with a win over 2400m on a Slow track in Lyon, 3rd in Chantilly, 2nd in the Germany Derby by 0.75L, a 1st by 0.8L in the Prix De Reux and then a 1st in the Prix Deauville by 0.2L. The horse who ran 2nd in the Prix Deauville ran a clear 5th in the Arc which is decent enough form lines. The horse has drawn an awkward barrier 20, but if the last few runs over in France were anything to go by, they will be looking to get him into a forward position from outwide. If he drew an inside barrier, I would have him close to a high chance of winning, but due to the early pace that will be needed to get a strong enough position, he isn’t one of the toppies in my book.. but certainly dosn’t discount him.
24. Ruscello 50kg – Barrier 24
A horse who showed a large amount of upside over in the UK and was shipped out here. Didn’t win his previous 6 races but had always gone close. Ran 2nd first up just missing out on the win over 2000m and then lead from start to finish in the Lexus to get a run today. Comes into this with no weight and looks the leader on the Speedmap. Will be brave but I just can’t see him going close.
The Key Chances
In no particular order, I have moved all of the runners into one of five categories. Just to explain what it all means, just because a runner is in the Medium Chance pile doesn’t necessary mean they aren’t a good bet. It means they need a fair bit of luck and the right circumstances. After all, if a $100-1 runner was in the medium chance pile, that would represent value.
Voleuse De Coeurs
Melbourne Cup 2013 Tips
1. Voleuse De Coeurs
Her Irish St Leger win was super. She will be getting back in the run and will be running on from the 1000m. Expect her to be within striking distance coming around the turn and if produces a run similar to last start hitting the front around the distance marker.
2. Brown Panther
Not the best horse in the race, but has enough upside and staying power from a VERY favourable barrier to take a forward position. If the speed doesn’t get put on then he is there or there abouts. Won’t have to do much work, will be getting covered up for a run and saving ground.
His run in the Caulfield Cup was eye-catching. Even if Dandino had another 100m, I would put money on the fact that Dandino wouldn’t have got past Fawkner. Fawkner is absolutely flying and is the one to beat of the locals.
So there you have it. Our top three chances in the race in order. As you will note, there are eleven horses we feel have a real chance in the race.
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 6, 8, 10, 17, 18, 21
Flemington Race 8
Mull of Killough: Side Glance proved that you cannot count out the UK stayers who fly over after a tough win. Mull of Killough pulled hard at MV and was shuffled to the back which certainly didn’t help. Just ignore that run and judge on previous runs. If runs up to the 1600m Group 2 from last prep then is going to go very close and is massive overs.
Pelicano: A good horse, but is he this level? Won an easy race back in Adelaide last start after failing the last two runs. Not for me.
Rain Drum: Two runs this prep have been huge. Stepping back from WFA-G2 4th to Toydini which is a very strong form line and is down 2.5kg today. If the rail is playing well then he will be VERY hard to pass. Big chance.
Gris Caro: Beaten in a staying best behind Mourinho last start. Up in weight today and Mourinho has failed since. Should be suited but prefer others.
Salon Soldier: Big first up win off 59kg. Down 4.5kg today and has sensational form lines. Will be suited by the straight. Big chance.
Durnford: Not going well at all this prep.
Auld Burns: This is another level of class he isn’t in.
Midsummer Sun: Returned very well last start at 1400m when 1.8L 7th behind Strike The Stars. Should improve 2nd up and can run very well.
Sheer Talent: Not going well enough.
Langridge Street: Not up to this.
Comments: Some very good horses in this race. Track bias will play a key role here. If the rail is on, Rain Drum will be very hard to pass. If it isn’t the swoopers are very good.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5
Strategy: Rain Drum on top from Mull of Killough
Flemington Race 9
Broken: Has been running ‘ok’ recently but not as well as four and five back. Goes well at Flemington. Would prefer it wetter.
Pago Rock: Continues to run well without winning. Not sure his best is down a straight.
Amaethon: Maps to take a sit behind Mahisara today which should be a good way to run into the race. Is weighted very well today and most important runs VERY well first up. If the pace is on then he is tough enough to outstay this lot. Big chance at best.
Mahisara: Goes well first up and is yet to miss a place at the track. Weighted nicely.
That’s The One: Last two runs have been his worst all prep. Before that kept going close. Run three back was eye catching. Not the worst. Could win.
Just Discreet: Ran 2nd to Golden Penny last start. If Golden runs well early races then could be good form lines. Just not sure she is good enough for this.
Sea Lord: Not going well enough at all.
Gold Sand: Goes ok first up but needs further. Never placed at track.
Griffon: Not going well enough.
Avoid Lightning: Two runs this prep have been ‘solid’ but not good enough to win this.
Cascabel: Not sure he is good enough for this.
Go The Knuckle: Don’t dismiss him. He will sit out the back and come home hard. Weighted to win today.
The Peak: Will run well once again but hard to back on last two runs.
Prizum: Ran well enough last start. Equal weight today. Never won from 8 tries at the track.
Richie’s Vibe: Weighted poorly today compared to Go The Knuckle. Couldn’t have.
Addiction to Rock: Hard to have on form this prep over in Adelaide.
Dozintmateranyway: Won 3 from 10 at this class. Better over further.
Nearest To Pin: Ran well enough on a leader bias track last start at MV. I couldn’t back today.
Like Bolt: Ran well enough last start but this is much harder. Is weighted well though.
Morant: Goes well first up but can’t see him being good enough first up in this class.
Academy Jack: Very progressive last prep. 2nd in WFA-G3 and then blocked for runs next start. Weighted to win again today if produces best.
Comments: I sound like a broken record, another race with many chances. I have it down to four. 1, 4, 15, 24
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 15, 18, 24
Strategy: Go The Knuckle on top from Amaethon and Academy Jack.
Flemington Race 10
Felidea: Hard to see the improvement.
The New Boy: Just ignore first up run. Was ridden incorrectly. Has a very solid record at track and distance. Don’t dismiss.
Hosting: Disregard last start run and rate on two back behind Rain Drum. There should be enough speed on for him to go close today.
Soros: Not going anywhere near good enough this prep.
Lampedusa: Very disappointing last start. Not in this.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Hard to see the win today on last run behind Henwood.
Such Hope: Good runs last two but needs to improve again to be in this.
Danish Whiskey: Goes well at track but better form has been on weter tracks recently.
Sabres: Not good enough.
Stratigraphy: Gone close the last two runs without winning. Can’t see turning the tables in this.
Chile Express: Has won first up previously but never won at track and better over further.
Bradman: Goes well 2nd up. Not sure you can fully count him out.
Counted: Very strong run in much harder company first up over the 1200m. Step up in distance suits. Weighted to win.
Swipeline: Two solid runs this prep but much easier company. Thrown in the deep end here. Would note that he can run a solid time and is weighted better today.
Kenjorwood: Not good enough on recent form.
Comments: Get out stakes got tough! A few stand outs at least.
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 8, 14, 15
Strategy: Liking the prices on both Swipeline here and Counted.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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