Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on Monday 10 March 2014. An interesting day of racing and most the country will probably be looking more towards Adelaide. Quite a few races today I don’t want anything to do with but we still found a few that look good at the prices. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 Godiva Rock
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 5 Your Excellency
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 8 Rubyone
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 8, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Morphetville Race 7 Adelaide Cup
Three horses stand out in this race for me.
Black Tycoon is the unknown. Oliver takes the ride which says something. Will be out the back which to me isn’t the place to be, but is weighted well enough, has won a Group 2 over in WA at 2400m and should get the distance.
Big Memory has been super progressive all prep and was very imprssive last start at Moonee Valley winning by 3 lengths. Up in class today but he looks very hard to beat and from barrier 6 will get the position he wants.
Cooldini is the one I like the most today. His win last start at Flemington was very impressive. The extra distance will suit, I know it. I have been following this one for a long time and even though he surprised a little with his win last start, he is back to his best and will be very hard to run down.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Cooldini to win. Saver Big Memory.
Morphetville Race 8
A fair few chances in this race but there is one that stands out at an amazing price.
Riziz is a group horse and returned in very strong style first up. Showed that he is ready to step out here today and put this field away. The price is way over what I would have him at.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Riziz to win.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Dramabeel: Last prep couldn’t get within 11L. First up this prep improved significantly to only lose by 7 lengths and beat 2 runners home! Yeah, No.
Kings View: Back to Maiden class after running in C1 races in Tassy and went close over 1400m in maidens before that. Claim is a key for him and two back run from the front over 2100m is key. Can run well.
Victorious: Beaten 15 and 11 lengths only two runs this prep. Nope.
Street View: Ran very well last start at course and over 1600m to run 2nd to Waldorf. This race looks much easier and looks the one to beat.
Time To Rock: Returned well this prep with close 2nds at Echuca and Geelong recently from out front and out back. Can run any position and will be hitting the line well. Serious chance.
The Luckier Youget: Has shown some form this prep with some nice enough runs. Key is down to 53.5kg today after claim and barrier 5 to get a decent run.
Dancing May: Failed at Sale as $2 favourite first up and then 2nd up again. Ran home ok last start over 1800m at Sandown and this looks a winable race.
Savvy Kingstonette: Barrier trial was average at best. Couldn’t have unless market support was real keen.
Comments: Street View looks ready to win
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Street View to win if we can get $3 or above (currently $2.7)
Moonee Valley Race 2
Mywordsaidthebird: Hasn’t run a horrible race all prep, but hasn’t gone close to winning. Expect it to continue.
Downunder Prince: Last prep ran intoa few good ones in maiden company up in the distances. Back down to 1200m which suits but will be well back in the run. Don’t dismiss.
Goodbye Toulouse: First up maiden run was solid behind Girl in Flight who looks to be a really good horse now. How will he return? Looks value at the price.
Streetshavenoname: What a stupid name for a horse (sorry if you own it). Ok first two runs this prep and probably improves again today, but has to find a length at least.
Word of Mouth: Best run end of last prep over 1600m. Will return well, but do I want him over 1200m? No
Nasty Nelly: Hard to see her winning today based on form. Have to return at best plus 2 lengths.
Altura: Did alot wrong first up but time was solid. Up to 1200m an issue? Barrier hurts but is good enough here.
Godiva Rock: This is a horse who has run 3.3L behind Solicit. First up run was solid off a slow tempo out the front and almost got there. Favourite today and will have improved second up and is the one to beat.
Comments: Goodbye Toulouse looks the main threat to Godiva Rock… but I feel today is the day for Godiva from the barrier.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Godiva Rock to win
Moonee Valley Race 3
Wind Bender: A serious horse, two wins last prep and all others runs were solid as well. Showed best over 1800m+ and never won at 1600m is the only concern today… but Waller generally has these types wound up and it’s interesting that he has sent her down here ot Melbourne to what appear to be ‘easier races’. Weighted fairly today I’d say.
Sinhala: Got us the win last start at Sandown when allowed to lead and own them out the front off a very slow tempo. Up 2kg today, I think she can run well again, but won’t get such an easy time.
Grand Zee: 1kg better off than Sinhala today last start running wide. Barrier 3 will either lead or take a sit and be in a winning position coming to the turn. Hard to beat today.
Sacred Dream: Suggesting you forgive last start and rate on two back when ran very well at Flemington. Well back in class today and if jumps well from barrier 4 will be in a positive position. Can run well enough to contest.
Bridie O’Reilly: Ran into a few good ones last prep in maidens before winning one well over 1600m. Time was poor though and failed in similar class next start. Hard to have for mine.
Flawlessly: 9L maiden win over 2200m last prep followed by a very solid 3YO 2.8L 5th. Needs further than 1600m I’d suggest, but that being said, off 51kg in this class, hard to ignore her.
Waldorf: Start to finish very solid win first up. Has improved on this prep and can run well again off 51kg. Based on last start time, very good chance.
Go Bossy Pants: Strong enough win last start but surely outclassed today.
Comments: Tough race with 4-5 good chances. The key for mine is weight and position in running. Waldorf maps to get the rails run off 51kg which will make her very hard to pass. Grand Zee looks the main danger for mine.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Waldorf to win. Saver on Grand Zee
Moonee Valley Race 4
New York Rain: Did alot wrong last start and was a forgive run. Back to 58kg today down in class after claims and barrier 6. Based on first up run, is in this.
Pearly Whites: Finally got a win last start leading start to finish at course and over 1200m. Back to 1000m looks a bit sharp for mine and will find one or two too god.
Star Beauty: The one to beat clearly. Last two starts of last prep were sensational and from barrier 3 off 57kg, is very much in this. Maps well.
Decades: Two back run at Seymour was ok but last start was horrid. Weighted poorly today.
Duble Barrel Daisy: 5L win in much easier class than this. Base the horse on two and three back runs I would suggest and she looks under the odds.
Jemerica: Ran well enough first up but found one too good. Equal class today down 2.5kg after claims, barrier 5 maps well enough.. could run well.
Leaps and Bounds: Wide barrier today hurts but is still one of the best runners in this race based on previous runs. Down to 57kg suits.
Pink Jubilee: 5L winner last start in very easy company. Base on previous runs to that, needs to find a few lengths up 3kg here!
Queen Extreme: Solid first up Ararat winner. Weighted ok today and looks the unknown runner of the race.
Write The Cheque: Only won a miaden last prep. Hard to rate how well she will go today. Watch for money to come for her.
Comments: Star Beauty is the best runner in this race and even though there is a lot of speed in this, she should be able to get a solid enough position from barrier 3 to go close at the weights..
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Star Beauty to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Corvidae: Only fair last start getting to the line. Barrier 1 will position much further forward today. Expect a better showing.
Tackleberry: Out front last start was tested along all the way and just couldn’t tough it out vs a quality opponent who improved and had the better run. Back down in class today but won’t get an easy run. Barrier means chances are he will sit outside the leader who always puts on a decent speed. Can win.
Generalife: Sent up to Sydney after a decent career building in Melbourne and it is fair to say he didn’t light any fires, but he did win a race at least. Similar class today first up, he doesn’t have the best first up record or track record but he always runs well. Weighted nicely and will be running home strongly.
Your Excellency: Weighted to win today when you consider the 3kg claim back down to 53.5kg. Barrier is perfect for taking a lead today and 1200m suited also. Form from last 5 runs suggest he is the one to beat and is classy enough for this.
Animoso: Never won first up or at distance. Looking for further. Still a small chance but wants further.
Too Deadly: Was running home well last start at FLemington. Weighted much better today against Tackleberry but won’t have as many to pass today. Could be value.
Champagne Shisha: Went under as favourite third up over in Adelaide after a decent win 2nd up at Mornington. Up in class today, down to 51.5kg. Will need to work extra hard to get a forward position though. Not sure she is going well enough personally even at the weights.
Chinzia: Last two runs have been poor since good 1000m run at course. Hard to have.
Beau Jez: Ran well enough first up without winning. Way down in weight and up in class. You know the ticket, if Kav is on course, then you have something on this fella. Maps Well.
Comments: Your Excellency looks very hard to beat today. I may pay the price for taking on Tackleberry today after backing it last start! Beau Jez looks the one of interest with a gun run as well.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9
Strategy: Your Excellency to win. Smaller bet on Beau Jez (especially if Kav is in the yard).
Moonee Valley Race 6
Alfiler: Showed nothing last start after a solid run two back Top weight but this is much easier today.
Gingerboy: Failed last start and was slowly away. Two back run was solid though in a similar rated race and ditto two back. Barrier hurts but can run a strong enough race to contest this.
Dew: Won maiden well but last start in this grade didn’t measure up. No thanks at weights.
Heytown Lad: Maiden winner who didn’t measure up in this grade last start. Another I can’t have at the weights..
Quantum Light: Ran home well enough last start and previous run was ok but has to find at least a length today. Not so sure he is good enough.
Wolfpack: Two and three back runs were solid. Last start probably didn’t hnadle Deadit seems? How will he go today? Barrier hurts.
Fastnet Star: Maiden only winner. Last two runs not enough excuses to see him winning this.
Accord: Won a maiden then chucked in the deep end but didn’t measure up. Down to 54kg today way back in class… have to consider.
Don Doremo: Won well enough last start but in much easier company. Should appreciate distance today but barrier hurts to get a lead.
Rodway: Average time first up win in maiden company… only looks to be fair.
Pegembak: Didn’t run on well enough last start. Odds suggest not good enough for this either.
Comments: Not a fan of this race at all. Have to stick with Alfiler if any from the two back run. The price suggests a very small bet.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 8, 10
Strategy: Alfiler E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7
Al Ragno: Shown us nothing since win in similar rated race first up. Hard to have at weights.
Tigeriffic: Looking for further, over the jumps.
It’s Fred: Two runs this prep in much easier company have been solid. Up in class and weighted near the top. Will need to improve.
Son of Coco: Performing well in easier company out in the country. I couldn’t recommend today.
Stars In The Sky: Failed to go closer than 2.5L this prep to winning. Showed enough last start but has to find much more today. Still looks better than a few
Arctic Song: Showed us enough last two runs to suggest has the ability to win this. Barrier is the key issue but weighted nicely with claims. Needs to jump well.
A Chiller: Maiden winner. Huge step up. Weir yard. Seen worse make the jump.
Beira: Last two runs have been enough to suggest she can run well today.. but back in distance may hurt even if it is just 100m, looks to me wanting more not less to me.
Crime Fighter: Ran well enough in a much easier race first up. Should run better today up in distance. Don’t dimiss.
Hadron Collider: Two runs at Benella been solid but those were much easier than this. Weighted ok.
Wollongong: Last two runs off very slow lead times only reason he finished so close. Won’t get that today I’d suggest.
Cash To Splash: Not bad last start. Two back was ok also. Need to get luck to run on from this far back though.
Cee Cee ‘N’ Dry: No form to go off this prep to suggest a win.
Comments: I hate this race. I couldn’t be on any
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Arctic Song to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Current Affair: Goes well first up and at this distance, although this class has always been a struggle. Better seen on heavy I feel.
Rubyone: Never placed at track previously (last two runs) and hard to see turning that around today on last two runs…. but win over Metaphor who has been SUPER impressive since three back was very strong. Is the key this mare needs a Good track? 1 month off to freshen up? Down 3.5kg today? OVERS.
Sahara Night: Ran well enough two back in similar company at track but considering the pace should have won. Goes well first up but two runs at track for 0 places.. topping the weights today also.. barrier 1 the only advantage.
The Bounty Queen: Not sure what to make of her. Three impressive enough wins this prep. Barrier 3 so will have a chance again. Can’t have on top but can’t leave out of any exotics!
Pixie Eyes: After a decent Caulfield run last prep disappointed all three runs after that. First up today for 8 months and goes ok first up. Hard to have for mine in this class.
Day After tomorrow: Won well enough in much easier company last start. Times were ok though and only up 1kg today. Not the worst here.
Zarzing: Ran well enough first up when slowly away. Barrier 2 today, as long as jumps well, can go close.
Girl Guide: The one to beat after a very strong maiden win first up… but you have to wonder how good it really was when they opted for a filly and mare maiden at Bendigo that wasn’t the ‘cream of the crop’ prize money. Off 54kg today, she will be weighted well, but won’t get the front from the barrier 13 with so many wanting to go forward. Looks a solid lay option to me at the price.
The Blonde Alibi: Ran well enough last start at Course and Distance. Down 1kg today and can run a solid race from the barrier.
Manor Lady: Gone backwards big time this prep and hard to have today.
Kochamma: First up for almost a year. Didn’t show us enough to want to be on today.
Fast And Loose: Maiden only winner. Hard to see her measuring up here.
Villanious Vixen: Disappointed last start at course and distance and at weights hard to have today.
Comments: I don’t like backing those who settle out the back, but Rubyone ticks all the boxes for me today at the price. The Bounty Queen also deserves some of my money.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 8, 9
Strategy: Rubyone to win. Smaller bet The Bounty Queen.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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