Welcome to the Horse Racing form for Moonee Valley races on 24 January 2014. Australia Day weekend is upon us and I hope you all enjoy a wonderful weekend. Last Saturday didn’t exactly go to plan in the very least, with the Best Value getting us back to a respectable loss for the day. I will be on track tomorrow night to cheer some of the runners home and hopefully we get a track that plays evenly, which would throw up some value. Always play for a bias early and adjust accordingly. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 Moment of Change
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 8 Tronador
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 7 Adirondack
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7 (or stand out MOC if going short Quaddie)
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Aliberani: Found best on wet ground last prep and hasn’t shown enough this prep to suggest can win today.
Blazing Dragon: Pushed forward last start unexpectedly and was super poor. May not have got the distance. Way back in distance today to a class and distance you know she can run out. Barrier means will be ridden for luck and on mapping i’d suggest that to be 3-4 sets back. Can win but will need luck.
Jelly Baby: Never placed at distance. Only won once first up. Never placed at track. Looking for lesser class and slightly further on form from last prep. Has been off over a year. If money comes, might be worth a spec.
First Bloom: Turned form around last start when at distance at FLemington when loomed as the winner but couldn’t get there. Equal weight. Will be fairly far back in the run from the barrier and suggests on form to need a bit of luck to get the win.
Kimiko: One of two clear front runners today. Fell away fairly disappointingly last start over 1600m after a win on Good two back. Looks harder company today and hard to have.
Baqaat: Barrier 5 and Katie M booked, you get the feeling they will try and lead this one out today. The horse was very disappointing two back at course over 1600m but won well on a wetter track last start in eaiser company. Hard to have even at weights.
Averau: An eye-catching run last start from the back of the field after a strong run the previous race as well. Fairly luckless the last two runs. Wide barrier hurts today for getting a position in the run. Oliver booked. Previous prep over this distance they pushed forward and you could see it happen again. Weighted well.
St Issey: Seriously beaten last start but still ran 3rd by 4L. Has potential but will be very far back and needs a 1 in 30 run to win this for mine.
Hold True: Very disappointing last start up in class at Werribee after a 3L win two back. Hard to rate. Doesn’t look good enough to place.
Clear Direction: Inside barrier. Could push forward like two back but was headed easily and found out in that run on what was a slowish tempo out front. Doesn’t look good enough.
Vivacious Miss: Country class runner who up in class last start ran 8th. Weighted off the minimum but that still has her 5 lengths behind these.
Pixilicious: 2000m winner at Bairnsdale from close to the front last start. Up in class today and poorly weighted. Ran an ok time though. Not the worst here.
Comments: Talked myself out of about 95% of the field here which is always a bonus for a field. First Bloom and Blazing Dragon are the two dangers while Averau if ridden differently today can also threaten.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Small bet on Blazing Dragon with a few to back Averau in-play if goes to a forward position and does it easy.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Hai Lil: A very good Mare who has won 6 from 12. Won 3 from 4 at this track and won both her 1st up runs her last two preps. Better over further but is 4 from 6 at distance. Way back in class here but 60kg seems fair. Will be coming from far back today but not too many runners makes this do-able. If they manage to run on in the first, she is a huge chance.
Johannapine: Last two runs have been solid without winning. Up to 1200m which could prove the difference back in class today. Weighted quite well and maps well.
You Can Dance: Fairly disappointing this prep. Oliver goes back on which is interesting… no claim today. Not going well enoughf or mine from this barrier.
Whitten’s Delight: Progressed well last prep and ran a good 1.5L 7th behind Gris Caro to finish prep. Won 3 from 5 at distance but you would suggest best is over further distances. First up record is strong, Kah is here for rides and she is normally on the money with McEvoy runners. Maps to have a good run. Can win.
Manhattan Maid: Never won first up and haven’t seen her since mid last year. Goes ok at distance but best has been seen over 1400m. Never placed at track a concern. Weighted ok. Barrier outside of a few who will kick up hurts a little.
Spending: Missed the start (whats new) blocked for runs and weaved way through to just miss at Caulfield last start. Weighted to win this today but needs luck or to jump well. Can win.
Rubyone: Blocked for runs but still got the win last start at Cranbourne. Could test these on her best.
Silk Pins: Never puts in a bad run but this is up in class. hasn’t won since 2011 but still has earnt 180k in prize money. Never won at distance but placed 5 from 10. Can run well and maps well from barrier.
Valid Contract: Didn’t finish off last start and previous start didn’t finish off either. Hard to have unless we have a dead track.
Comments: Not a whole lot of speed on paper and something in this could very well steal it all.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Spending on top. Smaller bet on Hai Lil.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Hotham Heights: Down in class but hasn’t shown us enough this prep to suggest can threaten, especially with the barrier today. Is weighted ok though.
Solsay: Finished off well two and three back but just missed the wins. First up win was impressive though. Way back in class and rates very well. Maps well.
King Buddy: Won a soft affair last start but was fairly impressive doing so. Two back run behind Flamberge was promising also. 59kg today up in class, you can’t write him off, but this is a classy field and he looks under the odds for mine with how he maps.
Xavi: Just ignore last start and look to two runs back. Never won over 1200m but they are giving it a go. Hasn’t missed a place over 1200m and weighted well. Could get trapped out is the only issue.
The Big Steel: Not in this at this distance.
Emboldened: Ran on well last start even though finished 9th, was only 2.8L off Kaiser Sun when a lot went wrong with the run. Will position further forward today from a positive barrier. Could win ridden for luck.
Huxssen: Hardest race of his career and is first up. Has won 2 from 9 first up, but hasn’t won since 2010. Hard to see.
Tackleberry: Never won first up but never is far off. Never won at track either but always goes close. THis is a big step back in class first up and considering the claim down to 55kg, he comes in super well at the ratings. Wide barrier the issue. Hasn’t won since 2012.
Youbolt: Never won at track from 4 tries and keeps disappointing in this class of race. Suggest he has to go back to country class. Can’t see the win.
The Minister: Showed something four back but since then shown nada. Oliver jumps off.
Poitier: Ran on well first up but didn’t threaten them. Hard to see the improvement today if they go back.. but from 1 they probably sit midfield. Win would shock but it could happen.
Tunes: Won only start over 1200m but that was a long time ago. Is a 2000m+ horse.
Comments: A really competitive race with quite a few chances. One of my best didn’t make the field here so that hurts for confidence. Solsay has the right form lines to run very well today while if they are running on King Buddy can’t be ignored.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Win bet on Solsay. Saver on King Buddy.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Master’s Degree: How good is he? Just not good enough last start at course and distance. Down in class today but down 2kg after claims also. Maps to lead. The one to beat on paper.
Count Encosta: Maps a long way back. Shown us nothing this prep. Weighted well though.
Prince Jester: Finally put it all together for a win last start. Can continue on from that strong run and win here today.
Red Fella: Run of the race last start at Caulfield from a good barrier. Today jumps from barrier 13 and is giving 2KG to runners from that race. Maps further back today which is the key against winning.
Beer Garden: Ran surprisingly well last start and is weighted well enough again today. Never placed at track but weaker class… don’t dismiss.
Cadel’s Gold: Good win last start at Geelong. Goes well at that track. This is a step up in class again. Not sure can get down on these ones.
The Princeling: Ran fairly last start but has to find at very least 1.5 lengths today.
Duplicity Jones: A little further back last start than expected and finished off solidly. Down in class and ran very well here two back. Big chance from barrier.
Hereafter: Last two runs this prep were both solid. Needs to improve today to win this though. Maps well from barrier.
Tejon: Good win two back at Geelong on a wet surface but didn’t measure up at all last start at Flemington. Weaker class and Oliver back on is interesting.
Pauling: Just snuck a win last start in lesser company. Down 5kg today which gives a slight chance today.
Laconic Lad: Probably ignore last start and rate on previous. .Even so I still can’t have.
Comments: I’m struggling in this one to find enough gap between Prince Jester, Master’s Degree and Duplicity Jones on my ratings at the prices to be confident of anything here.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Prince Jester to win. Master’s Degree could steal it.
Moonee Valley Race 5
The Monstar: Times have been ok without blowing them away in weak company. Last start up in class just got beat $1.40 fav. Can run well out front but hard step up in class for mine.
Trevinder: Average form at best on maiden win. Hard to have.
Maroon Bay: Big win at course and similar distance two back. Blocked for run last start at Caulfield. Weighted to win this. Mapping is the issue.
Neat Feat: Hard to know what to make of him. Weighted well but was poor last start up in class.
Howdah: Failed due to track condition hard to figure out last start. Ran well on slow track behind Prince Stratum. Win wouldn’t shock.
Zeffiretta: Rattled home very well two back at Flemington. Up to 1200m on a dead surface worked against her it seemed last start off a slow tempo. Throw that out the window and rate on two back. Looks a blowout chance ridden for luck.
Jennyfromtheblock: Hasn’t shown me enough to suggest can win this.
Lavender Bay: Not in this league.
Comments: Romancingthestone form is hard to ignore. Maroon Bay rates well today. Zeffiretta the swooper with huge chances.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 8
Strategy: Maroon Bay a medium sized bet. Smaller sized bet on Zeffiretta.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Moment of Change: Awkward barrier today from the dead outside, but these outside barriers actually have good records at this track. His run at Ascot behind Buffering was impressive and for mine the key is a GOOD track where he is best. Weighted to win this against lesser company today. What price would Buffering be here in place of MOC? $1.25 I’d suggest.
Zedi Knight: He continutes to be a solid horse at 9 and keeps running well bringing in prize money for his owners. He should ensure Sea Lord or General Jackson put on a strong enough tempo today.
Sea Lord: Last win was course and distance in this class early last year (same meet). Two back run down the Flemington straight was impressive and just got beaten in the end. Maps well from barrier and just don’t write him off.
It Is Written: Horse with potential but looks up against it in this class for mine. Ridden for luck and can threaten if gets it.
Spot on target: Only 1 win first up ever. Hasn’t won since early 2013 and doesn’t look in this class.
Tokugawa: Haven’t seen him since mid 2013 and hasn’t gone around in decent races since late 2012. He looked a promising type with a 4th in WFA-G2 and won a few good races. Not sure his best is this distance.
Richie’s Vibe: If the pace is on you just can’t count this bloke out. His three back run and last start off strong tempos at Caulfield and Flemington were very brave. Best is found over this distance and he does measure up. Need a bit of luck today.
General Jackson: Went for an easy kill over in Adelaide last start and comes into this poorly weighted against Moment of Change. WOuld be shocked if he did measure up but is a good place chance at the prices.
Big Buddie: He had his chances. Not going well this prep.
Counted: Progressed nicely this prep and last start was great. Up in class up in weight.. Can run well.. can’t see winning. Could place.
Comments: Moment of Change should win this. The threats are Sea Lord and Richie’s Vibe while Tokugawa is the one who could shock.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7 (or stand out MOC if going short Quaddie)
Strategy: Very keen to get involved with Moment of Change at these odds. Should be closer to $1.60 on my ratings.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Trust in a Gust: Brave victory last start and is in a very winable race again today. Tricky barrier but should slot right in. Up in distance suits and maps well. Can win.
Written Up: Weighted ok but can he make up 2.5 lengths today? Poor barrier.
Adirondack: Brave to the line down a long Flemington straight. Back in distance today suits for mine and maps to lead or get a sit outside the leader. Weighted to win.
Colors of the Wind: Can’t have on last start run at these weights. Win wouldn’t shock entirely but hmmm no.
Gallant Express: Only fair two back then won maiden only just. Not the worst here.
Del Prado: Big step up in class today. Never far away previous runs but this is a big step up. Can’t see it.
Arctic Song: Won maiden well start to finish at Geelong. Not sure they fight for a lead if there is a fight. Can run well but win? Not sure. Times don’t suggest so.
Alpha Beat: Won a fast run race to break maiden. Not sure the pace will be on enough but is a Magnus and that was a strong paying race. Prefer dead track.
Leventi: Doesn’t look to be good enough on previous runs.
Miss Maggiebeel: Had the pace set for her last start at Flemington and didn’t disappoint swooping over them from the back. Weighted well enough here but needs luck.
Titian Silk: Looks a class behind these on times so far this prep.
Trushazal: Maiden only winner in poor times. No thanks.
Comments: Comes down to three for mine. Trust in a Gust, Adirondack and Miss Maggiebeel. The no claim for Mallyon may be the difference for Maggiebeel here. Oliver off the fav on Alpha Beat something to watch.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 10
Strategy: Adirondack E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 8
The Ruffian: Best runs have been over slightly further distances than this. First up run wasn’t horrible over 1100m and up to 1600m today will suit. Weight looks the issue and maps further back than he would want to be from gate.
Zlatan: Showed absolutely nothing first up. Hard to even suggest can place off that performance. Probably forgive that run? Quaddie number. Race Plates off. Concussion on which could be difference?
Morant: A sprinter not a distance runner. Strange placement if you ask me. I can’t see this at this distance.
Akzar: Showed nothing this prep. Can’t see placing.
Great Lane: Not the worst form lines coming into this. Certainly a big test. Win wouldn’t really shock?
Jetconi: Continues to run well in country class. Weighted well today. Barrier an issue to get a good spot without getting stuck 3-wide.
Hinchley Wood: Hard to see the improvement today at weights to beat home Great Lane. Needs luck from barrier to place.
Galileo Gold: Significant improvement last start, looked the winner but was just outgunned. Barrier hurts on paper. Can win.
Word Gets Around: Showed absolutely nothing first up. Barrier 4 so would suggest they try push a little further forward today. Forgive first up?
Meritorious: Not in this class on last prep or this prep and didn’t show enough first up.
Tronador: Won his last two in a row and the horse he beat last start has come out and won at Caulfield in mid-week since. Down 5kg today and from barrier 2 maps to win. Big chance.
Daybreak: Continues to run well without threatening to win after first up win here. Up in distance a concern. Weighted well.
Comments: Going wide in last leg of Quad as always. Settlers Way stiff to not make the field and should have gone very close. I still had Tronador on top and that increases my confidence on the horse today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 12
Strategy: Keen to be backing Tronador and confidence increases with scratching of Settler’s Way.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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