Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 28 December 2013. A tough card on offer today at Moonee Valley and it really will pay to watch the first race or two to see how the rail plays. Our best of the day is going off the hunch that the rail in the true will be the place to be and we will have a race to decide how hard we really do want to go based on that fact. Just keep adjusting to how the rail plays all day. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 Seven Falls
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 7 Prince Stratum
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 4 Settlers Way
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Not a big fan of the Quaddie today. You either go very wide or just skip it.
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 9, 10, 14, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 8, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 13, 15, 17, 18
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
You know me. A few first starts in here so I find this very hard to touch. I would suggest Kav’s runner off the straight run and back to a corner and deserves to be the current price.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Lucky Symbol: Consistent type who has impressed all 3 runs this prep. takes a sit mid field and runs home well. Barrier suits and weight seems right.
The Bowler: Found his best last prep over 1400-1600m I’d suggest and while he did win over 1200m in the past, this does look a little short. Has won first up and off 56.5kg does come into this well… but needs to find two back prep form to be a chance. Can sit or lead. Barrier hurts.
Charles in Charge: Form around this horse looks interesting. Ran a close 3rd last start at course and distance with Romancingthestone running 2nd. The horse ran a close 3rd to Salute to Jude behind Lord of the Sky in the previous runa nd Salute to Jude was impressive on the weekend. The horse was poor first up and seems to be coming on in his prep. A good chance at double figures.
Seven Falls: 7L maiden winner over 1000m on slow in a fair time from start to finish. If the rail is playing as well as expected in the true position then will be very hard to pass. Down 0.5kg. Clear leader. Final sectionals were solid.
Brotherly Secret: Super disappointing last start at Flemington while previous run at Caulfield was only fair at best. Not the best weighted here but can push forward from barrier 1 if they want. Wouldn’t surprise me if they did.
Colors of the Wind: Maiden only winner who ran poorly first up. Can’t have.
Gallant Express: Two runs first up were ‘decent’ but nothing impressive both 3.5L and 4.8L off top class horses. Needs to have found a lot.
Primal Delight: Couldn’t win a maiden. Down 7kg is interesting but can’t see it.
Comments: I’m banking on the fact that this rail will be the place to be. Lucky Symbol will be 3-4 wide on the turn and I’m not sure I want to be there today. Charles in Charge will probably either push forward from the barrier to sit outside Seven Falls who I expect to lead or take a trail and be ridden for luck so I give him a good chance. The only ‘surprise’ in the race I can see is Brotherly Secret trying to lead from barrier 1 which could make things go wonky.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Seven Falls to win. Saver on Charles in Charge.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Kiss Me Ketut: Brave win last start at Flemington and previous two wins were also solid. She has really put it together and off just 57kg looks suited today. How far back will she be is the only issue for mine? The best horse in the race, but will be going wide.
Pole Paradise: Beat home Rainbow Storm in maiden company two back then took care of an average lot last start. Will be out the back from barrier 6 and needing luck.
Da Paolino: Caulfield maiden winner on slow by a good 2.3L. Missed start first maiden run which is a concern and doesn’t seem to swoop. Distance increase suits.
Jessy Belle: Start to finish win last start at course and similar distance. Up in class and up 1.5kg. Barrier 4 and can push forward or take a sit. Looks a fair amount of speed.
Magnesia: Unlucky 2nd to Jessy Belle last start. Needs to improve on that run again today and maps to go forward or take a sit today. Giving Jessy 0.5kg today.
Zebrinz: First two runs were average at best and then improved to win well in a very easy race at Sale. Down to 52.5kg today gives a slight chance to place.
Dig A Pony: Returned well first up this prep with a 3L win in fairly easy company on a dead track from out the front. Down 4.5kg today brings her in well. Can go close.
Theodora: Average win last start but has been running ok all prep. Weighted nicely.
Comments: I want to but I can’t go past Kiss Me Ketut. If there is a clear leader bias though I won’t be touching her.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Kiss me Ketut on top from Dig A Pony.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Umatic: Sent over last start to Morphetville for an easy kill but just didn’t have enough. Up 6kg today and down in class… not sure what to make of him but he is a good horse. Just maps poorly for me.
Vintage Lad: A good horse who is back to his best. Ran a close 3rd at Flemington last prep on a rain affected track. This prep has slowly gone up in the distances and earnt a strong win over 1600m at Mornington and even more impressive last start from the front at Kilmore. Up in weight today but deserves every bit of it. Will sit out the front and be very hard to pass.
Balayeur: Gone close last two starts in quality fields without being able to record a win. Up 0.5kg today after claims. Will push forward from barrier 11. Will be there at the finish.
Just Reminisicing: Two strong enough wins in a row and down to 56.5kg today after claims. Will get a nice position but distance is a concern.
Subiaso: Not going well enough this prep.
Red Fella: Progressive runner who has run first or second in all his last four runs. This is a huge step up in class today and i’m not sure he measures up at the weights.
Rivonia: Good win last start and should have run previous start. Going well. Only issue is barrier and how far back he will be.
Genghis: Maps to have every chance today from barrier 7. Down to 55kg. A winning hope at a distance he has won over previously.
Pamukkale: Beat St Issey and ran 5th to Tully Costa last two runs. Back to 2000m today. Good horse and can place but not sure she can win.
Settlers Way: Super run last two starts going very close both times without winning. Maps as clear leader. Murphy goes on which is a big concern for me compared to D Oliver who rode it last time. If the rail is playing well then he starts half the current quote.
Oceanographer: Last two runs have been solid and he maps to get a similar run today. I just can’t see him at weights beating home Settlers Way.
Bessano: Hard to see the progression on last two runs when 7L and 11L back. Need to show massive improvement.
Tinderbel: Blocked for runs last start and should have gone much closer. I still can’t have her over this distance in this class.
Duplicity Jones: Ran on bravely last two starts but has been behind Settlers Way both times. Can run well.
Comments: 3 horses stand out in Vintage Lad, Balayeur and Settlers Way. As stated, if the rail is working out, Settlers Way will be very hard to beat.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Backing Settlers Way. Saver on Vintage Lad.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Star of Jeune: Couldn’t win in country grade this prep and hasn’t shown us anything. Hard to touch today. No thanks.
Kinselmac Manner: Good win three back but nothing shown since. 56.5kg helps today but needs to show significantly more and I’m not sure he is up to this grade.
Master’s Degree: Good run two back behind Anudjawun for 3rd and then last start led start to finish at Bendigo to win at big odds. Rawiller takes the ride today. Most likely take a sit. Rates well.
Beer Garden: Super disappointing first up but actually ran home well last start. equal weight today and can run another cheaky race up in distance where suited.
Bruntwood: Surprise winner up in distance last start in much easier company. This is a huge step up in class and I just can’t see it to be honest.
Clare Island Boy: A tough staying win at Geelong last start with a good ride and move during the run. This looks much tougher though.
Jileks Spur: Not sure what to make of him. Expected much more last start but didn’t show us much. Barrier hurts and will push forward again up in class and weight. Hard to have.
He’snotthemessiah: He isn’t and he keeps going around under the odds. Can’t see him improving enough backing up off last start run.
Rickelva: Back further than expected last start when slow to behind and ran on well without threatening. Can place.
The Principal: Ran on well in a race set up for back markers last start. Much harder here today.
Vihanna Victory: Hasn’t really gone close to grabbing a win this prep. Put in some ok runs and none of her runs have been bad but just hasn’t found enough to go close. Weighted well but has to find an extra gear. Barrier hurts for positioning.
High Design: Ran strong last start for a 3rd placing but didn’t really threaten. Barrier is a big set back today and will have to wrok hard to get the good position. Not sure at weights.
Chateau Latour: Last two runs behind Reckless Assassin were solid without ever looking a winner. Up in distance today couldn’t be a bad thing and weighted well again. Can go close.
French Caution: hard to see the improvement to win this.
Comments: Horrible race. Horrible to pick a winner. The fav looks a lay at the price.. but the race is horrible. Horrible for the Quaddie first leg. Go the field if you aren’t sure. I’m not even sure my first leg is long enough.
Confidence 0%
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 9, 10, 14, 15
Strategy: Chateau Latour E/W if anything but not for me.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Halle Rocks: Ran on well enough first up. WAYYYYY back in class today but from the barrier and all the way back off 60kg? Needs luck.
Captivating Lady: Only fair last prep apart a good second up win at Caulfield. Not for mine on mapping.
Anabaa’s Legacy: A little disappointing this prep. Maps to go forward but just hasn’t had the ticker to hold on.
JohannaPine: Blocked for runs last start and ran on well. Not the worst in this.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Weighted well today but needs more luck to go her way than last start. Sassy may not have such as easy time out front today.
Chinzia: Hard to see she measuring up here today. Can run well but can’t win.
Legcut: Never runs a bad race. Went close last start and is now down to 52.5kg. Barrier is the issue.
Sassy Tycoon: The one to beat on recent run. Most likely gets trapped outside Lamingtons on my speed map. Or could push forward if the rail is the place to be. Weighted to win again.
Dashing Shadow: Always runs well. Weighted nicely again today. Can position well. Don’t dismiss fully.
Lamingtons: Weighted to go close today from barrier 4 off 51kg. Maps to get the rail if pushed out. Can go close again.
Sahara Night: Can’t see her getting the lead today from barrier. Weighted well up in class today but this is MUCh harder.
She’s Ellie: Barrier 1… Will they try and lead? Weighted well.
Ella Supero: Not a place chance.
Comments: Quite a few runners with chances. Sassy Tycoon is incorrect odds today and should be much shorter.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 8, 9, 12
Strategy: Sassy Tycoon on top from Prettyhappyaboutit
Moonee Valley Race 7
Big Buddie: Poor return and weighted poorly today. Shown nothing for six runs.
King Buddy: Been going well recently with two wins and a strong run from the back at Caulfield for 3rd. Up to 60kg today from 51kg. hard to have at weights.
Out hand of Faith: Wins at Randwick, Warwick Farm and Rosehill just to get the Trifeca last prep. Been off more than a year. Best runs over further than this but at weights hard to ignore.
Horacio: Ran home well today back behind Solsay but failed last start. Can’t have at weights for mine.
Beltonic: Last two runs have been super disappointing. Needs to find something else today.
Condahussler: Found our last start of last prep in city class. Never placed firs tup or at track. Hard to have.
Fight to the Line: Good win last start at course and distance. Weighted to win today if repeats that effort. Maps well.
Hard Romp: Maps very well today. Didn’t have enough to beat 3 others home last start in a concern though and Schumacher from previous start hasn’t measured up in harder races. Can run well but not sure is the winner.
Daybreak: Good run last start and JUST got there. Down 2kg today which suits big time. Barrier a massive issue.
Elwick Jack: Running well in easier company but not up to this.
General Groove: Goes well first up. Goes well at distance and has won at track previously. Not sure how to rate him today.
Prince Stratum: The one to beat for mine. Broke the maiden at course and distance two runs back and then progressed for a huge 3.3L victory last start in easier company at Caulfield. Down 4kg today and from barrier 4 rates to win.
Comments: Prince Stratum the stand out for mine while Fight To The Line is a clear 2nd pick.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16
Strategy: Prince Stratum to win. Saver on Fight To The Line
Moonee Valley Race 8
Galileo Gold: Hard to back on previous 3 runs.
Mendivil: never won at distance in past. Three strong wins in last 5 runs last prep but all over 2000m+. Couldn’t back to win but could run well.
Leveraction: Gone backwards the last few run. This is another step back in class today. Weighted to win again but we felt that last start. Hard to have but hard to ignore also.
Prince of Penzance: Won 3 of last four to finish last prep in quality company. Very disappointing run first up. 1 run for 1 win at this distance in the past. Barrier hurts. Win wouldn’t shock but need to find lengths today.
St Mark: Measured up in harder company than this last prep but probably wants slightly further? Weighted semi ok but needs to find much more than last 4 runs of last prep.
Tycoon Rob: Always runs well. He leads and runs home well. Weighted nicely but unless the rail is super great, he will get passed.
Waterford Hill: Not going anywhere near good enough.
Bringenbrong: Big improvement win last start but was suited by a fast tempo from the back. Hard to see for mine.
Polkaface: Shown nothing the last three runs.
Aashiq: Ran home well last start at Moonee Valley and was a much better run than form suggests. Weighted well and barrier today means he goes close with Schofield back onboard. Great price.
Stradale: Going very well this prep with two quality front running rides and wins. Won’t get an easy lead today or may not even get one. Could be ridden for a sit. Will be close enough either way and weighted well.
Tombola: I like this horse but last start was just simply poorly weighted. Down in class today and down 4kg. Looks good to me. Can run well and will try and lead.
Wallon Region: Not the worst in the race. Weighted well and can run well from barrier 2.
Comments: Tombola, Aashiq and Stradale all stick out.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 13, 15, 17, 18
Strategy: Tombola to win from Aashiq
Please Note:
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