Horse Racing Form for Moonee Valley 31 January 2014

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form guide for Friday Night Horse Racing at Moonee Valley on 31 January 2014. Our Best Value at Caulfield delivered to start the way well and a few bets along the way went well, but our Next Best was simply too far back (smashed in from $2.6 into $1.6 on all books) while our Best Bet broke down and won’t ever race again breaking two bones in the run. Thankfully Romancingthestone, to my knowledge, is receiving treatment and may still survive to go on to be a broodmare. Captain Fanzypantz at MV tonight is one of my most confident bets for the year and I will be loading into him. Overall we have a good card on offer and the two maidens to start will give us an idea of how the course is playing with this rail, which if we go off last week, will play very evenly. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Captain Fancypantz

Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 4 Minaj

Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 6 Settlers Way

Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 9, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Four:  4, 5, 13

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Hard to judge these races as always. I saw a lot of merit in Euchre Star‘s run at Flemington last year and she was well backed in a mucher harder race than this. She was luckless and looks the value in this type of race from barrier 4. Will position midfield, hopefully 1 out and can go very close.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: If Euchre Star looks well in the yard, I’ll be having a go on her, most likely to place.

Moonee Valley Race 2
Another maiden race.
Two horses stick out big time in this one.
Moment of Design has been running in 2YO class in the city and even placed. Last start slowly away at Caulfield when ran 4th in a maiden. Run was solid but needs to improve a bit more today. Has a good barrier.
I’m An Outoftowner is the one that really stands out today. Ran on VERy well at flemington last start in a very classy field. Equal weight here today and just rates to win as long as she gets a run.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back I’m An Outoftowner

Moonee Valley Race 3
Several chances in this one, have only looked at the top chances.
Arikara: Thought she had every chance last start. Down 1.5kg and from barrier 3 will get the front running again. Need to improve a length IMO.
Soosa Rama: Ran on very well and won even better last start in maiden class. Will be far back and I do think she is one of the best in the race.. but with Arikara out the front, I can’t see them going too fast.
Friendwithbenefits: First up run showed me enough to suggest can win down in class today. Weighted well enough and should sit slightly further forward from barrier 8 today. Don’t dismiss. Over the odds.
Leaps and Bounds: Have to suggest you can forgive last start when still ran ok 6th at Flemington and rate on two back. Weighted well enough. Barrier the concern.
Tatler Belle: Went well firs tup and then won from out the front last start. Can improve again today weighted ok and maps very well.
The Hard Way: Just like Tatler Belle, ran well firs tup, won 2nd up and can improve again. Maps close to front from good barrier and weighted well. Can surprise.

Comments: Wide open affair. Friendwithbenefits looks the overs, but not sure I can play here unless she touches around $24+.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Friendwithbenefits

Moonee Valley Race 4
Lady Searcy: First up today and goes well first up, at this track and at this distance. Down in class today and weighted well. Can win if at best.
Words are Weapons: First up run 0.2L behind Field Marshall off a very fast tempo in November was big. Equal weight here today but the next 2 runs were only average. Had more than a month off and from barrier 3, will get a very good spot. Can win.
Minaj: Won 2 of 3 first up. Won only time at this track. WAY back in class today after racing in listed 3YO. Weighted to win.
Truffle: Ignore second up run and rate on first up run. Was very strong but last start run was only average. Equal weight today but others appeal more for me at this distance.
Beach Front: Just ignore last start when too far back. Will be with chances today at the weights.
Lamingtons: Ignore last start and rate on two back run and three back at course and distances. Barrier suits and will be very hard to pass. Is a bit of a cat though.
Navorina: Based on first up run very happy to be against.
Imprimis: Can’t see the improvement on runs this prep.

Comments: Top 6 all have chances here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: If Minah runs close to previous prep form, should be 1L better than these at the weights.

Moonee Valley Race 5
Royal Mail: really thought he had to show more than he did last start to win this. Right distance today.
Leonardo Express: Last two runs been average at best. Previous run was a win here in easier class. Weighted well off 56kg but must have trained on. Not so such.
Bombalatomba: Three runs this prep suggest he shouldn’t be running in city class.
Bringenbrong: Only fair last start at Flemington when ridden more forward. Will be ridden from the back again today I’d expect. On two back run, can go close.
Blazing Dragon: Poor ride, Not given any chance. Barrier 1 again today, Oliver goes on, back in class, weighted to win.
Nisos: Hasn’t really blown me away this prep with his runs but this looks his best opportunity. Will be running on well.
Samuelsson: Weighted nicely today but this is a step up in class. Not sure good enough.
Mahraaj: Always runs well but can’t see him being city class here.
Palmero: Hard to back but not the worst in race at weights? Both runs this prep been complete forgives.
Dalaniwave: Progressive this prep but doubt this.

Comments: Blazing Dragon has to be given another chance today and is weighted to win.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 7
Strategy: Blazing Dragon gets another chance today.

Moonee Valley Race 6
Little Bro: Last start run was super impressive. Will they take a sit today or push the pace? I Suggest they try lead and push the pace. Form looks strong with a close run behind Laohu this prep also and looks to be well suited up to 1600m here.
Cosentino: Last start run was ok. Don’t know if he can win but could place.
First Course: Can’t see winning today on first up run in this class.
Praesentia: Hasn’t done much wrong this prep and meets Little Bro beter at weights. Maps well.
Tronador: Very disappointing last start. Weighted equally today but this is harder. Can’t have now.
Daybreak: Ran ok last start. Up in weight. Needs luck in running to go close.
Emergency Ward: Not sure this horse is quite city class. Can place, can’t see winning.
Our Skeeta: Kicked at the turn last start and stole the win. Can’t see the repeat here.
Settlers Way: Absolutely huge last start. Shouldn’t have won but did. Back to 1600m a concern but they really want to and feel it’s best for the horse. Weighted to win.
Try Pickle: Bit of a surprise winner last start at Caulfield. Down in class and similar weight today. Can win from barrier.
Corporate Takeover: Impressive run at Flemington last start. Down in class big time and is weighted to win.

Comments: Holy crap this is a competitive race. Little Bro, Settlers Way and Corporate Takeover stand out.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 9, 10, 12
Strategy: I’m sticking with Settlers Way after last start. A smaller bet on Corporate Takeover, which if there is a leader bias, will change to Little Bro.

Moonee Valley Race 7
Chelembra: Goes ok first up and goes ok at track. Tough at the weights today and will sit around mid-field.
Beauty Cash: Maps very well again today. Loves the track even though he hasn’t won at track.. hi run two back was impressive. Last start got a win in equal class. Weighted to win this and is overs.
Corstons Beau: Dominating them up in Darwin having run $2 or less the last 5 starts. Been off 4 months, now with the in-form weir stable. Serious contender.
Override: Went to the front and won ok last start off a very slow tempo. I can’t see the repeat at the weights here.
Stratumsphere: Won two in a row this prep and can imporve again today. Up in class and weight but don’t dismiss him. Maps to win.
Written Consent: Never won first up, never run at track. Happy to avoid in this class.
Kuaima: WOn 2 of three this prep but this is a massive step up in class. Not for mine here. Could place with a good barrier today.
Pakari Toa: Won a fairly average race last start where the race was set up for him with pace. Not sure he is good enough to win this one at weights.
She’s Ellie: Goes close today on two back run at the weights. Can win.
Prelusive Strike: Couldn’t win previous three races and at weights can’t see him winning this.
Onetonnegun: Goes ok first up but hasn’t ever run or measured up in this class.

Comments: As the Quaddie numbers suggest, five chances. I can’t go past Beauty Cash on the each way but also have to have something on the Weir runner. Think Angels Beach is unders first up.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three:  3, 4, 6, 11
Strategy: Beauty Cash E/W

Moonee Valley Race 8
Sons of God: He didn’t show anything last start. Very disappointing. Can he improve here? Not for mine at the weights.
Big Buddie: He wasn’t the worst last start in WFA-G2 and is actually down 3kg today. Could place? Can’t win.
Horacio: Hasn’t improved enough the last two runs to suggest he can even go close.
Captain Fancypantz: Pulled up lame last start. You know I was super keen last run.. well he is down 0.5kg today while Laohu is up 3.5kg today after claims! That is a 4kg swing and we are getting an even better price today. Barrier 1, he will need luck in running, but he will have EVERY chance.
Laohu: Looks a Group horse in the making. Would be keen on him today if he wasn’t poorly weighted against Captain Fancypantz. Win won’t shock, especially if rail is playing well.
Sterosonic: First up run was solid but he looks better suited to further. I couldn’t have here.
Lohengrin: Last prep was horrible. Previous prep only fair. Throw at the stumps? No key booking either.
Mr Obvious: Goes well first up. Only run at track was solid. Wide barrier a massive issue.
Union Gap: Ran close behind Laohu two back but next start was average. Barrier hurts. Can’t see the win.
Sino Eagle: Had every chance ifrst up but couldn’t get the win. Maps well today and weighted ok. Can run well. Is she this class though?
Reddamour: Win in an average at best race last start. Can’t see here.. but Weir factor? Looks unders to me.
Cahier: On last start behind Laohu, Would need to be run differently and improve.

Comments: Captain Fancypantz is one of the best bets of the year so far at the price. Having a big go. Will be savering Laohu.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 5, 13
Strategy: Captain Fancypantz to win. Saver on Laohu.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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