Horse Racing Form for Moonee Valley and Morphetville Monday 11 March 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley and Morphetville. Some states around Australia are lucky to have a day off so there is some good racing to be had. There were a few upsets and painful seconds to be had on Saturday with a few good winners to keep it all going in a positive direction. It is important to always adjust to race conditions and even though we still liked British General in the last of the day, taking a sit behind the leaders or back in the field was the better position to be late at Flemington on Saturday and we posted up on twitter that Centennial Park was massive value. As always, we hope your form matches up with ours! Good luck and happy punting.

Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Forget

Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 6 Energia Elegante

Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 3 No Manners

means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Captain Smith: Has been VERY progressive this prep and went very close behind some decent horses last start. Could be the one to beat.
Laughing Lad: Never been disgraced all 5 runs at the races. Will run well again today.
Settlers Way: Very strong run from start to finish last start at Sandown to be passed by only one. Weighted equally today and will clearly take the front running. Big chance.
Tempest Rock: Ran well enough first up but hard to have on speed map from back.
Wild Sands: Doesn’t seem to be looking for this up in distance today. Will speedmap well enough to threaten.
Intune: Ran well enough last four starts but would rather be on others today with the barrier.
Maddy’s Angel: Ran within 1L last four starts this prep. Has huge ability and on any other track would love to back, but speedmaps poorly.
Gondokoro: Hard horse to race. Showed nothing first up this prep and was put into big races last prep. Hard to have on speedmaps.
Samapinga: Ran very well last start and speedmaps to go forward today. Could be value.
Don Cossack: Can’t see enough upside for this.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Rail should be playing fine and it’s hard to go past front runners in the first few races at MV. Small play if betting here but top two picks speed map to sit forward.

Moonee Valley Race 2
Pergola: Back in class today and has won previously at the distance.. but hasn’t won in more than 2 years. Hard to have here.
Val Mondo: Last win was over 3 years ago at similar distance in WFA-G3 company. Weighted ok but last few runs hard to see it.
Beer Garden: Never placed from 3 starts at the track and never ran the distance. Hard to have on last four runs.
High Kingczar: Ran well enough two back and even last start and continues to run well. Needs to find a lot more today though.
Tigeriffic: Strong hurdle form last prep and has won 3 placed 3 from 8 at distance but never placed at track. Hard to see.
Allgraceful: Poor last start but previous to that start to finish was good. This is much harder today but off 51kg could go well.
Prinsen: Placed 3 from 4 at track previously and up in class today. never won at class but weighted well.
Toranos: Ran very well last start and previous race also. Very progressive and weighted well.
Dhaafer: On previous form not good enough for this.
Miss Kempkinsky: Hard to have in this class today. Does run well but a few better here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Toranos looks to be the one to beat here but is certainly short. Probably easier races to bet on tonight.

Moonee Valley Race 3
City of Song: Disappointing last prep and never won from 5 starts at track previously. Down in class today off 57kg looks fair today, but isn’t speedmapped to get the perfect run.
Dashing Miss: Speedmaps near back and will find it hard at the weights.
Gracie Louise: Big win two back and then ran very well last start. Should position well today and be hitting the line hard weighted nicely.
Champagne Shisha: 2kg worse off against Gracie Louise today, but has some very strong form lines. All about where she sits in run.
Ferguson: Has won first up previously and weighted well, but has never placed at track or class. Hard to have without money coming heavily for her.
Jiggle It: Speed maps to lead this up or be out the front. Ran very well here last start and could show the imporvement to win.
No Manners: Slowly away last two starts and blocked for run both times. If jumps better today, is weighted to win off 52kg after claim.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Really keen on No Manners here. We do need a bit of luck in running, but the price provides us with a lot of value, even with this fact in mind. Gracie Louise is the other runner who speedmaps and is weighted to win.

Moonee Valley Race 4
General Sateen: Never placed first up, only placed once in 4 goes at this distance and only won once in this class. Was impressive over further last prep and suggest needs that distance. Has been off a long time.
With Danger: Good win last start but this is a big step up. Will get a VERY solid run from the speedmap position.
Delago Sun: Ran on well enough last start to suggest has progression. Just can’t see winning here.
Exclusive Choice: Huge won two back but not suited last start at this track. Can’t see winning here again due to map position.
Van Rossum: Won two in a row at this distance with last start in city class also. Claim puts him in at a very good weight and can sit close enough to run on to win.
Get Out Of Town: May want to ignore first up on heavy, but he generally goes ok gone it. Looking for further either way.
Tower Of Lonhro: Speedmaps to the front. Didn’t show enough last prep and first up was average at best. If taken to the front as expected, can run very well.
Whatanexcuse: Speed maps out the back but did go forward last start. Ran on well enough last start to have a chance.
Skalatoson: Can’t win on last two runs but previous run before that did run well close to the front.
Cash Currency: Blocked for run last start and should have probably won. Has the ability to go close today but this is a step up.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Think Van Rossum deserves to be a favourite and the price looks right.

Moonee Valley Race 5
Donna Cattiva: Speed maps to go forward and take a sit or try lead up. Has ability and this is a massive step down, but will need to have trained on 2-3L.
Bec Said No Credit: Ran on well enough last start to suggest can perform here today. Hard to get a good position from barrier though.
Scarletini: Strong second behind Hai Lil who went on and won next start as well. Down 2.5kg today and only issue is barrier. BIG chance.
Triquetra: Another horse with form behind Hai Lil 3rd and before that a 2nd to Ferlax which has also worked out as great form. Down in class and only up 1kg after claim. Speed maps well enough to win.
Anniversary Belle: Much harder class today but was a very big win last start in Tasmania. Could blow them away.
Spirit of Soul: Will be pushing forward and pushing to the line hard. Last run suggests has a chance today.
Royal Amati: Last start run suggests the horse has a load of talent, just needs luck which is hard to find here.
Young Girl: Step up in class today so hard to have. Still, can run well.
Eternal Optimist: Nice win last start ridden more cold. Down 3.5kg today for a 2.5L win which suggets if she jumps well, can go close.
Clear Direction: Hard to have on the only win last start in a maiden.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Not sure what I will do here until I see prices. Maybe a strong bet on Scarletini with smaller bets on Triquetra and Anni Belle, or may simply be a E/W or 2 unit place 1 unit win bet on Scarletini. We will know how the rail is playing by this race.

Moonee Valley Race 6
Energia Elegante: Group 2 winner at 2 in Brazil and looks very well weighted here today off 55.5kg after claim. Would love to see how the horse is in the yard, but looks value at the price.
Circle The Globe: Very strong run first up leading start to finish and will attempt to do the same today. If gets the lead and the rail is true, will be hard to pass.
Baremin: Speed maps one of the worst in this race but has shown enough last five starts to suggest can win this. Needs luck.
Bonne Nuit: Won well last start on heavy and down 1kg today in equal class after claim. Can go close but needs luck.
Deeming: Ran well enough last start but probably needs to find another length today to compete.
Spelldancer: Finally got a win last start in much easier company. Will be attempting to lead it up off 53kg today. Could be the one to beat.
Sapphire Princess: Under the odds today. Down in class but couldn’t get within 2.8L last two starts. Hard to have from position on this track.
Princess Victoria: Looks a little hard for her today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Very rare you get a first starting Group 2 winner who doesn’t show 80% of that talent (which is all you need to win this). Want to see in the yard. Second pick depends on an earlier race for Circle The Globe’s form to be franked (R3).

Moonee Valley Race 7
Instalment: Very disappointing last two runs.. so really hasn’t run well in over a year!!! Back in class big time here and off 58kg looks suited. Speed maps qutie well in fairness today and you want the horse to be looking good in the yard AND kav to be there on course to back him.
Eight Cards: Very good second up record with 3 from 5. Has won here, in class and likes the distance. Suspect needs to show a lot more than first up though.
High On Believing: Quality runner down from Sydney. Weight is a little harsh but has the ability. May be too far back though.
Tramuntana: He just keeps running well without winning. I think this is the best hcnace he has and needs luck of course. Down in class and down 3.5kg today.. weighted to win. big chance.
Smarty Mac: Huge step back in class today. Never won first up but never missed a place. Off 55kg today with claim and looks suited when you consider last start at 1200m was 1.5L behind British General. Speed maps to win.
Lightenuff: Hard to see a win here on recent runs.
Our Protocol: Jumped well and lead last start. Down in class but still expect something to get over him unless the rail is gold.
Gonna Be A RokStar: Speed maps out the back. Could go well on last start form.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Need luck in this race but out two top picks are very solid and weighted well. Speed map ok as well.

Moonee Valley Race 8
Forget: Ran very well last prep with a win first up over distance and then went up in distance. 60kg does look a tad harsh but should be taking a sit close to 1 back the rails. Has a big chance.
Velonski: Love the form lines of this horse. Huge behind Royal Haunt three back and then won well last start in front of a horse we really like called Epona Princess. Should be pushing forward and if leads up, will be hard to pass.
Magnapal: Good run last start behind Subiaso but needs to find much more today. Probably needs further.
More Than A Song: Won well enough last start but a step up today. Still could go close.
Smashing Doubt: Another step up in class today and doesn’t look good enough.
Textiles: Speedmaps very well today well back in class. Will enjoy the run.
Tyanna: Better suited to lesser distances but takes a while to get going into preps.
Pitch Perfect: If Young Girl wins early on in the day, then could be worth following.. but last start run didn’t impress.
Ludus Magnus: Good win firs tup but don’t rate the race.
General Amour: Hard to have a maiden winner from country here.
Reddamour: Will be pushing forward but times don’t seem good enough for this.
Ossenhagen: Not good enough on first up run.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: No prices available as of yet. Happy to go with the top 2 here.

Morphetville Race 1
Hard race to start the day. Serbian Crown looks weighted well enough to go close off 52kg while The Wingman put in a very strong run two back at Caulfield suggesting off the 58kg back in class that he could be the one to beat. Oui Si Attitude should be coming hard late also.

Morphetville Race 2
Another race with a few good chances. Karacatis deserves to be favourite but may find one too good here. We like the looks of the two resumers in Almighty Bullet and Lohengrin. Both look progressive enough and weighted well.

Morphetville Race 3
Very interesting race this one. Mount Zero did a load of work last start at Flemington to run on well for 2nd and deserves to be favourite here. Will be suited more by the track. Australia Day was impressive first up so hard to discount and the big watch horse for mine is Molto Bella. Well breed and ran 2nd to Miracles of Life.

Morphetville Race 4
Not very keen on this race at all but if I had to back anything it would be Commanding Star who should show a LOT more than first up run and looks over the odds.

Morphetville Race 5
No prices available so hard to back anything here without prices. Little Bro resumed well enough to suggest can go close today. Our Mimi was very progressive last prep and can go close again here while Cape Clear showed enough last start to contest this.

Morphetville Race 6
A fan of Prince of Capers but can’t really have him today off the first up run and up in weight. River’s Lane was a huge winner last start and one worth watching.

Morphetville Race 7
Ignore last start for Tuscan Fire. Will be taking a sit today and be suited. You Think So looks suited today also while Kutchinsky, Dame Claire and especially Lucky Angel have claims. Not very confident betting this with so many chances.

Morphetville Race 8
Happy to bet around Shamal Wind here. Happy to give two resumers chances here today in Lady of Harrods who can go to the front and lead or take a sit and Maybe Discreet who will be up the front also running on. Both over the odds.

Morphetville Race 9
Hard to go past the top two, but we feel Nullabor Nymph has huge upside and off 55kg after claim speedmaps well.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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